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Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗

The Effects to Exposure of Simulated Spaceflight Radiation on Behavioral Health of Male and Female Mice

Exposure to space radiation is a principal consideration of spaceflight missions as risk is leveraged as time and dose—both expected to increase with future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Previous mission exposure levels, galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE), have been characterized as increased compared to those natural to Earth and are predicted to cause robust deficits at higher doses and longer durations. The cognitive health implications of this critical difference are understood as risks to mission and crew operations. We examined potential radiation-induced disruptions on brain health through resting-state in-cage behavior. 23–24-week-old male and female mice were exposed to 0 cGy (Sham), 5 cGy, 15 cGy, and 50 cGy via Five-Ion GCR Simulation (H, Si, He, O, Fe) at the NASA Space Radiation Lab in Brookhaven National Labs. Behavioral and cognitive performance were evaluated via frequency/duration of digging, rearing, and grooming within the 72-hour period immediately following irradiation. Additionally, during this time we evaluated nestlet building using a 5-stage Deacon score, rating shredding and shelter assembly of cotton material from untouched (1) to shredded and formed into a crater shape (5). We have observed differences in Deacon score only among the 15 cGy subset. Further comparative performance analysis will be completed evaluating the differences in irradiation effects between male and female mice. These experimental design aspects that allot for gender-inclusivity is supportive of the diversification of future space travel mission plans. Investigating gender differences is an element under our main objective of determining radiation dose-response curves. In brief, these studies identified a space-relevant radiation dose of 15 cGy that that can be utilized for future standardized ground studies on the nervous system.

spaceflight cognition impairment↗

Changes in Cognitive Performance and Behavior Induced by Space-like Environment

Exposure to space radiation is a principal consideration of spaceflight missions as risk is leveraged as time and dose—both expected to increase with future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Previous mission exposure levels, galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE), have been characterized as increased compared to those natural to Earth and are predicted to cause robust deficits at higher doses and longer durations. The cognitive health implications of this critical difference are understood as risks to mission and crew operations. We examined potential radiation-induced disruptions on brain health through resting-state in-cage behavior. 23–24-week-old male and female mice were exposed to 0 cGy (Sham), 5 cGy, 15 cGy, and 50 cGy via Five-Ion GCR Simulation (H, Si, He, O, Fe) at the NASA Space Radiation Lab in Brookhaven National Labs. Behavioral and cognitive performance were evaluated via frequency/duration of digging, rearing, and grooming within the 72-hour (acute) and 91-day (delayed) period following irradiation. Additionally, during this time we evaluated nestlet building using a 5-stage Deacon score, rating shredding and shelter assembly of cotton material from untouched (1) to shredded and formed into a crater shape (5). We have observed differences in behavior frequency and duration differences among the 15 cGy subset within the acute observation window. There were no significant differences in behavior frequencies nor duration during the delayed observation period. These experimental design aspects that allot for gender-inclusivity is supportive of the diversification of future space travel mission plans. Investigating gender differences is an element under our main objective of determining radiation dose-response curves. In brief, these studies identified a space-relevant radiation dose of 15 cGy that that can be utilized for future standardized ground studies on the nervous system.

O. Siu↗

Analyzing human errors in flight mission operations

A long-term program is in progress at JPL to reduce cost and risk of flight mission operations through a defect prevention/error management program. The main thrust of this program is to create an environment in which the performance of the total system, both the human operator and the computer system, is optimized. To this end, 1580 Incident Surprise Anomaly reports (ISA's) from 1977-1991 were analyzed from the Voyager and Magellan projects. A Pareto analysis revealed that 38 percent of the errors were classified as human errors. A preliminary cluster analysis based on the Magellan human errors (204 ISA's) is presented here. The resulting clusters described the underlying relationships among the ISA's. Initial models of human error in flight mission operations are presented. Next, the Voyager ISA's will be scored and included in the analysis. Eventually, these relationships will be used to derive a theoretically motivated and empirically validated model of human error in flight mission operations. Ultimately, this analysis will be used to make continuous process improvements continuous process improvements to end-user applications and training requirements. This Total Quality Management approach will enable the management and prevention of errors in the future.

Bruno, Kristin J.↗

Predictive Modeling for Differential Diagnosis and Mortality Risk Assessment

The prevalence of electronic health record (EHR) systems has brought prodigious biomedical informatics opportunity. Automated machine learning methods can effectively utilize such data and have become common tools for healthcare predictive modeling. Researches in medical informatics have explored the potential of deep learning and classical models in emergent care scenarios. In particular, predicting differential diagnoses for admissions have proven useful in decreasing unnecessary lab tests and improving inpatient triage decision-making. Moreover, identification of high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality is vitally important to maximize allocation of medical resources.The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database, containing de-identified critical care inpatient was used in our study. This data set captures hospital patient laboratory measurements, pharmacologic prescriptions, diagnostic data and procedure event recordings. When considering adult patients and discounting admissions with ICU length of stay less than 24 hours, there were 37,787 unique admissions and 30,414 total patients. We examined the top 25 most prevalent ICD-9 group-level disease specificities in MIMIC-III using a multi-label classification model. In-hospital mortality was modeled as binary classification with 4,155 (13%) adult patients that expired, of which 3,138 (75.5%) were in the ICU setting. The metrics AUC, F1 score, sensitivity and specificity values calculated for each disease label measured prediction performance.The usage of ICD-9 group codes reduced feature dimension from 14,567 to 942 and greatly improved distribution of patient diagnostic categories. Disease temporal patterns were captured by considering the most frequently sampled 6 vital signs and 13 laboratory values. Missing data were imputed at each time-stamp. Time-series raw hourly average values were converted into 5 summary features (mean, standard deviation, number of observations, min & max values). Patient demographic variables such as age, gender, marital status and ethnicity were also factored into the modeling. Choi et al showed that contextual embedding of medical data, diagnostic and procedural codes alone can predict future diagnoses with sensitivity as high as 0.79. We utilized an embedding technique called word2vec which allowed sparse representations of medical history to be transformed into dense word vectors. The mappings captured contextual information by treating each admission as a sentence and learning the most likely neighboring words in a sliding window fashion. Binary and multi-label classification was achieved via collapse models, which do not consider temporal information, as well as recurrent neural networks with regularization, Softmax output layer activation together with categorical cross-entropy as the loss function.

US Army collaboration↗

Performance Risk Model (PRisM) Proof-of-Concept: An Operational Decision Support Tool to Predict Crew Performance in Space from Available Performance Tests

The Crew Health and Performance-Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team at NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a range of tools to evaluate astronaut health during spaceflight and to optimize the medical set required for missions. Among these, the Performance Risk Model (PRisM) represents a novel advancement, extending CHP-PRA’s focus beyond medical systems into the domain of human performance. Such tool could be pivotal in optimizing astronaut capabilities during space travel, thereby enhancing overall mission success. PRisM leverages data from well-established performance assessments conducted during previous crewed space missions and Earth analogs to strategically predict outcomes for planned tasks, even when direct performance testing has not been conducted for those specific tasks. To evaluate performance, PRisM references the various metrics outlined in NASA-STD-3001 and employs a methodology to integrate different performance scales. This framework analyzes the contribution of various human system task categories (HSTCs) to task execution and compares these contributions to the HSTCs’ involvement in other known tests. The model further employs a Monte Carlo simulation to sample performance scores from their distribution in operationally relevant tests such as those in Mulavara et al. (2018) and, by leveraging similarities in HSTC involvement, transfers this knowledge to actual mission tasks, such as those outlined in the "Human Exploration of Mars: Preliminary List of Crew Tasks”. The current PRisM proof-of-concept includes analyses of the impact of exercise and specific medications on astronauts’ performance, with provisions to incorporate additional countermeasures as data becomes available. Furthermore, the tool is customizable to include any system necessary to fully encompass the domain of human systems and can be adapted to evaluate performance for any spaceflight activities as requested by operational stakeholders. PRisM has the potential to assist the Human Research Program in exploring the capabilities trade space for optimized crew performance.

performance modeling↗

Results of a 3-day Pilot Study to Validate Planetary Prebreathe Protocols Using a 56.5 kPa 34% O2, 66% N2 Saturation Cabin Atmosphere

INTRODUCTION: Apollo missions used 100% O2 cabin atmospheres which effectively eliminated the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) during extravehicular activities (EVAs, ‘spacewalks’); however, this atmosphere presented a flammability risk that is no longer acceptable to NASA. Denitrogenation prebreathe protocols used to mitigate DCS risk for Space Shuttle and International Space Station EVAs are validated for the microgravity environment, but the significantly increased risk of DCS during equivalent ambulatory surface EVAs make these protocols inapplicable to planetary/Lunar missions. An “exploration atmosphere” of 56.5 kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2 has been recommended by NASA for future Moon and Mars missions as a compromise that balances subsequent pre-EVA prebreathe duration, hypoxia, and flammability risk, assuming a 29.6 kPa (4.3 psi) spacesuit. Prebreathe validation studies was initiated utilizing a three-story 6m diameter hypobaric chamber at NASA’s Johnson Space Center. Here, we report the results of a 3-day human-in-the-loop system checkout. METHODS: Six volunteers acclimated to the 56.6kPa/34% O2 66% N2 environment for 48hrs prior to conducting a 20-minute prebreathe and a 6-hour simulated EVA at 34kPa/85% O2 / 15% N2. The EVA simulation was designed to include tasks that are physically and ergonomically representative of future planetary EVAs. Decompression stress was evaluated by serial doppler and echocardiographs, as well as by clinical features of DCS signs/symptoms. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Preliminary data analysis noted venous gas emboli (VGE) in 3 of 6 subjects, with peak Grade II VGE by Doppler and peak E-B score of 5 by cardiac ultrasonography. No volunteers were diagnosed with DCS during this initial test. No acute hypoxic symptoms were noted. Musculoskeletal and gastrointestinal complaints were noted, likely associated with the exercise load and the food system. Validation of exploration prebreathe protocols has since been initiated with an 11-day saturation test using the same facility and protocol.

Alejandro Garbino↗

Late ophthalmological complications after total body irradiation in non-human primates

PURPOSE: To investigate the long-term effects of total body irradiation (TBI) on the incidence and time course of ocular complications. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Rhesus monkeys treated with TBI photon doses up to 8.5 Gy and proton doses up to 7.5 Gy were studied at intervals up to 25 years post-irradiation. They were compared with control groups with a similar age distribution. Cataract formation and ocular fundus lesions were scored according to a standardized protocol. Fluorescein angiography and histopathology was performed in selected animals. RESULTS: Cataract formation occurred after a latent period of 3-5 years. Significant cataract induction was observed for photon-doses of 8 and 8.5 Gy and beyond 20 years after proton irradiation. The severity of the lesions represents significant impairment of vision and would require cataract surgery if similar results occurred in human bone marrow transplant patients. Fluorescein angiography demonstrated a normal pattern of retinal vessels in 13 out of 14 animals (93%) from the irradiated group and in eight out of nine animals (89%) from the control group. No additional lesions apart from age-related degenerative changes could be demonstrated. Histological evaluation revealed no radiation-associated vasculopathy. CONCLUSIONS: Radiation alone for doses up to 8.5 Gy of photons does not carry a potential risk for fundus pathology, whereas clinically important cataract induction should be anticipated within 5 years after photon doses of 8.0 and 8.5 Gy and proton doses in excess of 2.5 Gy.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Non-subjective cataract analysis and its application in space radiation risk assessment

Experimental animal studies and human observations suggest that the question is not whether or not prolonged space missions will cause cataracts to appear prematurely in the astronauts, but when and to what degree. Historically the major impediment to radiation cataract follow-up has been the necessarily subjective nature of assessing the degree of lens transparency. This has spurred the development of instruments which produce video images amenable to digital analysis. One such system, the Zeiss Scheimpflug slit lamp measuring system (SLC), was incorporated into our ongoing studies of radiation cataractogenesis. It was found that the Zeiss SLC measuring system has high resolution and permits the acquisition of reproducible images of the anterior segment of the eye. Our results, based on about 650 images of the rats lens, and followed over a period of 91 weeks of radiation cataract development, showed that the Integrated Optical Density (IOD) of the lens correlated well with conventional assessment with the added advantages of objectivity, permanent and transportable records and linearity as cataracts become more severe. This continuous data acquisition, commencing with cataract onset, can proceed through more advanced stages. The SLC exhibits much greater sensitivity reflected in a continuously progressive severity despite the artifactual plateaus in staging which occur using conventional scoring methods. Systems such as the Zeiss SLC should be used to monitor astronauts frequent visits to low earth orbit to obtain a longitudinal data-base on the influence of this activity on the lens.

Wu, B.↗

Pre-Flight Training of Autonomic Responses for Mitigating the Effects of Spatial Disorientation During Spaceflight

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified a potential risk of spatial disorientation, motion sickness, and degraded performance to astronauts during re-entry and landing of the proposed Orion crew vehicle. The purpose of this study was to determine if a physiological training procedure, Autogenic-Feedback Training Exercise (AFTE), can mitigate these adverse effects. Fourteen men and six women were assigned to two groups (AFTE, no-treatment Control) matched for motion sickness susceptibility and gender. All subjects received a standard rotating chair test to determine motion sickness susceptibility; three training sessions on a manual performance task; and four exposures in the rotating chair (Orion tests) simulating angular accelerations of the crew vehicle during re-entry. AFTE subjects received 2 hours of training before Orion tests 2, 3, and 4. Motion sickness symptoms, task performance, and physiological measures were recorded on all subjects. Results showed that the AFTE group had significantly lower symptom scores when compared to Controls on test 2 (p=.05), test 3 (p=.03), and test 4 (p=.02). Although there were no significant group differences on task performance, trends showed that AFTE subjects were less impaired than Controls. Heart rate change scores (20 revolutions per minute minus baseline) of AFTE subjects indicated significantly less reactivity on Test 4 compared to Test 1 (10.09 versus 16.59, p=.02), while Controls did not change significantly across tests. Results of this study indicate that AFTE may be an effective countermeasure for mitigating spatial dis-orientation and motion sickness in astronauts.

Orion↗

Evaluation of Planetary Extravehicular Activity Prebreathe Protocols using a 56.5 kPa, 34% O2, 66% N2 Saturation Cabin Atmosphere in an 11-day Hypobaric Hypoxia Study

INTRODUCTION: Apollo missions used 100% O2 cabin atmospheres which effectively eliminated the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) during Lunar extravehicular activities (EVAs, ‘spacewalks’); however, this atmosphere presented a flammability risk that is no longer acceptable to NASA. Denitrogenation prebreathe protocols used to mitigate DCS risk for Space Shuttle and International Space Station EVAs are validated for the microgravity environment, but the significantly increased risk of DCS during equivalent ambulatory surface EVAs make these protocols inapplicable to planetary/Lunar missions. A cabin/vehicle “Exploration Atmosphere” of 56.5 kPa (8.2 psia), 34% O2, 66% N2 has been recommended by NASA for future Moon and Mars missions as a compromise that balances subsequent pre-EVA prebreathe duration, hypoxia, and flammability risk, assuming a 29.6 kPa (4.3 psi) spacesuit. Prebreathe validation studies were initiated utilizing a three-story 6m diameter hypobaric chamber at NASA’s Johnson Space Center. Here, we report the results of a 11-day human-in-the-loop system checkout. METHODS: Six volunteers lived in a hyboparic chamber for 11 days with an ‘exploration atmosphere’ of 56.6kPa/34% O2 66% N2. Subjects acclimated to the exploration atmosphere for 48hrs and thereafter participated in five 6-hour simulated EVAs at 34kPa/85% O2 / 15% N2 over the course of 11 days. Prior to each simulated EVA, subjects underwent a 20-minute prebreathe at 85% O2. The EVA simulation was designed to include tasks that are physically and ergonomically representative of future planetary EVAs, proportionate to the subject’s VO2max. Decompression stress was evaluated during the simulated EVA by serial doppler and echocardiographs alternating every 15min, as well as clinical monitoring for DCS signs/symptoms. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Venous gas emboli (VGE) were present in 3 of 6 subjects during EVAs, with peak Grade II VGE as evaluated by Doppler and a peak Eftedal-Brubakk score of 5 by cardiac ultrasonography. Two cases of DCS were diagnosed during the 11-day test chamber. No acute hypoxic symptoms were noted. Musculoskeletal and gastrointestinal complaints were noted, likely associated with the exercise load and the food system. Two cases of DCS (8%) does not cross either accept or reject pre-test criterion, so an additional study is planned for 2023 to meet our pre-test thresholds.

Alejandro Garbino↗

Design and Verification

As future space missions become longer, an important aspect to consider is the habitability of the spacecraft. The amount of habitable volume affects not only astronaut comfort, but safety and mission success as well. However, as the volume is increased to aid in task performance, the weight of the vehicle and cost of the mission escalates in proportion. Pressure to reduce mission cost is constant, but the risk to mission success and crew survival must remain the priorities. The Constellation Program's Altair Lunar Lander is designed for short duration surface operation missions of seven to ten days. For short duration missions, humans will tolerate fairly primitive environmental situations provided the basic physiological arrangements are acceptable. However, for long-duration lunar surface operations, the living and operational spaces within which the crew work must provide both the essentials of life, as well as the support necessary for the crew to be productive in accomplishing their mission. The Altair is still in the preliminary design phase, which is the optimal time for Human Factors data to be provided to designers and engineers. A Human Centered Design (HCD) approach is being taken with our Human Factors evaluations. Human-in-the-loop testing is conducted using low-medium fidelity mock-ups of proposed lunar architecture. Based on current ConOps (Concept of Operations) procedures, a task analysis is performed in which individual tasks are combined into larger operational scenarios. Subjective and objective performance measures are gathered at both the task and scenario level. These scores are used to determine the functionality of the vehicle in terms of task performance. Results from these evaluations will highlight areas for design or operational improvement.

Thompson, Shelby G.↗

Autonomous Diagnostic Imaging Performed by Untrained Operators using Augmented Reality as a Form of "Just-in-Time" Training

We will address the Human Factors and Performance Team, "Risk of performance errors due to training deficiencies" by improving the JIT training materials for ultrasound and OCT imaging by providing advanced guidance in a detailed, timely, and user-friendly manner. Specifically, we will (1) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR that guides non-experts through an abdominal trauma ultrasound protocol; (2) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR to guide an untrained operator through the acquisition of OCT images; (3) evaluate the quality of abdominal ultrasound and OCT images acquired by untrained operators using AR guidance compared to images acquired using traditional JIT techniques (laptop-based training conducted before image acquisition); and (4) compare the time required to complete imaging studies using AR tutorials with images acquired using current JIT practices to identify areas for time efficiency improvements. Two groups of subjects will be recruited to participate in this study. Operator-subjects, without previous experience in ultrasound or OCT, will be asked to perform both procedures using either the JIT training with AR technology or the traditional JIT training via laptop. Images acquired by inexperienced operator-subjects will be scored by experts in that imaging modality for diagnostic and research quality; experts will be blinded to the form of JIT used to acquire the images. Operator-subjects also will be asked to submit feedback to improve the training modules used during the scans to improve future training modules. Scanned-subjects will be a small group individuals from whom all images will be acquired.

Martin, D. S.↗

Autonomous Diagnostic Imaging Performed by Untrained Operator Using Augmented Reality as a Form of "Just-in-Time" Training

We will address the Human Factors and Performance Team, "Risk of performance errors due to training deficiencies" by improving the JIT training materials for ultrasound and OCT imaging by providing advanced guidance in a detailed, timely, and user-friendly manner. Specifically, we will (1) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR that guides non-experts through an abdominal trauma ultrasound protocol; (2) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR to guide an untrained operator through the acquisition of OCT images; (3) evaluate the quality of abdominal ultrasound and OCT images acquired by untrained operators using AR guidance compared to images acquired using traditional JIT techniques (laptop-based training conducted before image acquisition); and (4) compare the time required to complete imaging studies using AR tutorials with images acquired using current JIT practices to identify areas for time efficiency improvements. Two groups of subjects will be recruited to participate in this study. Operator-subjects, without previous experience in ultrasound or OCT, will be asked to perform both procedures using either the JIT training with AR technology or the traditional JIT training via laptop. Images acquired by inexperienced operator-subjects will be scored by experts in that imaging modality for diagnostic and research quality; experts will be blinded to the form of JIT used to acquire the images. Operator-subjects also will be asked to submit feedback to improve the training modules used during the scans to improve future training modules. Scanned-subjects will be a small group individuals from whom all images will be acquired.

Martin, David S.↗

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗

Geomagnetically Induced Currents at Middle Latitudes: 1. Quiet-Time Variability

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) at middle latitudes have received increased attention after reported power grid disruptions due to geomagnetic disturbances. However, quantifying the risk to the electric power grid at middle latitudes is difficult without understanding how the GIC sensors respond to geomagnetic activity on a daily basis. Therefore, in this study the question “Do measured GICs have distinguishable and quantifiable long-period and short-period characteristics?” is addressed. The study focuses on the long-term variability of measured GIC, and establishes the extent to which the variability relates to quiet-time geomagnetic activity. GIC quiet-day curves (QDCs) are computed from measured data for each GIC node, covering all four seasons, and then compared with the seasonal variability of thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE- GCM)-simulated neutral wind and height-integrated current density. The results show strong evidence that the middle-latitude nodes routinely respond to the tidal-driven Sq variation, with a local time and seasonal dependence on the direction of the ionospheric currents, which is specific to each node. The strong dependence of GICs on the Sq currents demonstrates that the GIC QDCs may be employed as a robust baseline from which to quantify the significance of GICs during geomagnetically active times and to isolate those variations to study independently. The QDC-based significance score computed in this study provides power utilities with a node-specific measure of the geomagnetic significance of a given GIC observation. Finally, this study shows that the power grid acts as a giant sensor that may detect ionospheric current systems.

Adam C Kellerman↗

Analysis of In-Space Assembly of Modular Systems

Early system-level life cycle assessments facilitate cost effective optimization of system architectures to enable implementation of both modularity and in-space assembly, two key Exploration Systems Research & Technology (ESR&T) Strategic Challenges. Experiences with the International Space Station (ISS) demonstrate that the absence of this rigorous analysis can result in increased cost and operational risk. An effort is underway, called Analysis of In-Space Assembly of Modular Systems, to produce an innovative analytical methodology, including an evolved analysis toolset and proven processes in a collaborative engineering environment, to support the design and evaluation of proposed concepts. The unique aspect of this work is that it will produce the toolset, techniques and initial products to analyze and compare the detailed, life cycle costs and performance of different implementations of modularity for in-space assembly. A multi-Center team consisting of experienced personnel from the Langley Research Center, Johnson Space Center, Kennedy Space Center, and the Goddard Space Flight Center has been formed to bring their resources and experience to this development. At the end of this 30-month effort, the toolset will be ready to support the Exploration Program with an integrated assessment strategy that embodies all life-cycle aspects of the mission from design and manufacturing through operations to enable early and timely selection of an optimum solution among many competing alternatives. Already there are many different designs for crewed missions to the Moon that present competing views of modularity requiring some in-space assembly. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the approach for scoring competing designs.

Moses, Robert W.↗

Calibration and Validation of a Finite ELement Model of THor-K Anthropomorphic Test Device for Aerospace Safety Applications

The THOR anthropomorphic test device (ATD) has been developed and continuously improved by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to provide automotive manufacturers an advanced tool that can be used to assess the injury risk of vehicle occupants in crash tests. Recently, a series of modifications were completed to improve the biofidelity of THOR ATD [1]. The updated THOR Modification Kit (THOR-K) ATD was employed at Wright-Patterson Air Base in 22 impact tests in three configurations: vertical, lateral, and spinal [2]. Although a computational finite element (FE) model of the THOR had been previously developed [3], updates to the model were needed to incorporate the recent changes in the modification kit. The main goal of this study was to develop and validate a FE model of the THOR-K ATD. The CAD drawings of the THOR-K ATD were reviewed and FE models were developed for the updated parts. For example, the head-skin geometry was found to change significantly, so its model was re-meshed (Fig. 1a). A protocol was developed to calibrate each component identified as key to the kinematic and kinetic response of the THOR-K head/neck ATD FE model (Fig. 1b). The available ATD tests were divided in two groups: a) calibration tests where the unknown material parameters of deformable parts (e.g., head skin, pelvis foam) were optimized to match the data and b) validation tests where the model response was only compared with test data by calculating their score using CORrelation and Analysis (CORA) rating system. Finally, the whole ATD model was validated under horizontal-, vertical-, and lateral-loading conditions against data recorded in the Wright Patterson tests [2]. Overall, the final THOR-K ATD model developed in this study is shown to respond similarly to the ATD in all validation tests. This good performance indicates that the optimization performed during calibration by using the CORA score as objective function is not test specific. Therefore confidence is provided in the ATD model for uses in predicting response in test conditions not performed in this study such those observed in the spacecraft landing. Comparison studies with ATD and human models may also be performed to contribute to future changes in THOR ATD design in an effort to improve its biofidelity, which has been traditionally based on post-mortem human subject testing and designer experience.

Putnam, J. B.↗