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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests

Summary The relative importance of tree mortality risk factors remains unknown, especially in diverse tropical forests where species may vary widely in their responses to particular conditions. We present a new framework for quantifying the importance of mortality risk factors and apply it to compare 19 risks on 31 203 trees (1977 species) in 14 one‐year periods in six tropical forests. We defined a condition as a risk factor for a species if it was associated with at least a doubling of mortality rate in univariate analyses. For each risk, we estimated prevalence (frequency), lethality (difference in mortality between trees with and without the risk) and impact (‘excess mortality’ associated with the risk, relative to stand‐level mortality). The most impactful risk factors were light limitation and crown/trunk loss; the most prevalent were light limitation and small size; the most lethal were leaf damage and wounds. Modes of death (standing, broken and uprooted) had limited links with previous conditions and mortality risk factors. We provide the first ranking of importance of tree‐level mortality risk factors in tropical forests. Future research should focus on the links between these risks, their climatic drivers and the physiological processes to enable mechanistic predictions of future tree mortality.

Zuleta, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2021

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato‐oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Abstract Background Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato‐oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk‐quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results The model had a c‐statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c‐statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion.

Cornelissen, Loes L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate Modeling For Efficiently Accurately and Conservatively Estimating Measures of Risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. We adopt a probabilistic description of risk that assigns probabilities to consequences associated with an event and use risk measures, which combine objective evidence with the subjective values of decision makers, to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical estimates obtained from the training data. These surrogate models not only limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments, but produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to the specific risk preferences of the stakeholder and then present an approach, based upon stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. The surrogate models introduce a bias that allows them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that this bias decays at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Our numerical examples confirm that risk-aware surrogate models do indeed over-estimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of High Safety Significant Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology and Demonstration

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) risk assessment project. In FY 2019, the RISA Pathway initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a technical basis to support effective and secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. A framework was proposed for this strategy, which aims to (1) provide a best-estimate, risk-informed capability to quantitatively and accurately estimate the risk impact of plant modernization, considering the introduction of high safety-significant safety-related (HSSSR) DI&C systems, (2) support and supplement existing risk-informed DI&C design guides by providing quantitative risk information and evidence, (3) offer a capability of design architecture evaluation of various DI&C systems, (4) assure the long-term safety and reliability of HSSSR DI&C systems, and (5) reduce uncertainty in costs and support integration of DI&C systems in the plant. To achieve these technical goals, the framework provides a means to address relevant technical issues by: (1) defining a risk-informed analysis process for DI&C upgrade, that integrates hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis, (2) applying risk-informed tools to address common cause failures (CCFs) and quantify corresponding failure probabilities for DI&C technologies, particularly software CCFs, (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the component level, system level, and plant level, and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development and deployment of advanced DI&C technologies on nuclear power plant (NPPs).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power System Wildfire Risks and Potential Solutions: A Literature Review & Proposed Metric

Several fire risk evaluation, fire tracking, and fire response resources are available. The risk metrics and fire response programs are sometimes modified to include a power system context. The risk metrics often evaluate the risk of fires causing power system faults or outages, especially on transmission systems. The response programs are modified to ensure the safety of power system equipment and first responders as well as to coordinate power system outages to both ensure safety during an active fire and prevent fire ignition during high risk periods. Although some aspects of wildfire responses have been adapted to include power system concerns, adaptations to power system operations and maintenance to include wildfire risks and responses are still nascent. In particular, a risk metric that evaluates the potential for power system components to ignite wildfires is needed to help guide power system upgrade efforts and power system fire safety measures. This document serves as a brief literature review of wildfire risk metrics and response programs and how they relate to power systems. It also includes a proposed risk metric and structure for describing the risk of a power system component igniting a fire.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Survey of Cyber Risk Analysis Techniques for Use in the Nuclear Industry

Using traditional probabilistic risk analysis methods for severe accident safety risk management on non-digital systems, structures, and components at nuclear power plants is well-established. In contrast, cyber risk analysis of digital assets is still an immature field with unproven techniques due, in part, to the continuously changing threat environment and the challenge of digital assets failing in unexpected ways. As the nuclear fleet continues to adopt digital instrumentation and control systems, it is increasingly important to have effective and efficient cyber risk analysis techniques to support risk management decisions, such as risk elimination by system redesign or risk mitigation by implementation of prioritized security controls. To understand the state of the art in cyber risk analysis for future research, we surveyed 36 publications across ten application domains. We describe our survey methodology and rate each technique based upon scope, adoptability, and repeatability. In this work, we examine the unique constraints of the nuclear industry and outline the strengths and weaknesses of using the cyber risk analysis techniques in the industry, highlighting gaps with current techniques. We also discuss challenges and potential research directions for advancing the science for both existing and new advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pre-screening to guide coronary artery calcium scoring for early identification of high-risk individuals in the general population

Abstract Aims To evaluate the ability of Systematic COronary Risk Estimation 2 (SCORE2) and other pre-screening methods to identify individuals with high coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in the general population. Methods and results Computed tomography-based CACS quantification was performed in 6530 individuals aged 45 years or older from the general population. Various pre-screening methods to guide referral for CACS were evaluated. Miss rates for high CACS (CACS ≥300 and ≥100) were evaluated for various pre-screening methods: moderate (≥5%) and high (≥10%) SCORE2 risk, any traditional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factor, any Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular Disease (ROBINSCA) risk factor, and moderately (>3 mg/24 h) increased urine albumin excretion (UAE). Out of 6530 participants, 643 (9.8%) had CACS ≥300 and 1236 (18.9%) had CACS ≥100. For CACS ≥300 and CACS ≥100, miss rate was 32 and 41% for pre-screening by moderate (≥5%) SCORE2 risk and 81 and 87% for high (≥10%) SCORE2 risk, respectively. For CACS ≥300 and CACS ≥100, miss rate was 8 and 11% for pre-screening by at least one CAD risk factor, 24 and 25% for at least one ROBINSCA risk factor, and 67 and 67% for moderately increased UAE, respectively. Conclusion Many individuals with high CACS in the general population are left unidentified when only performing CACS in case of at least moderate (≥5%) SCORE2, which closely resembles current clinical practice. Less stringent pre-screening by presence of at least one CAD risk factor to guide CACS identifies more individuals with high CACS and could improve CAD prevention.

Ties, Daan (ORCID:0000000164729886)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trust and consequences: Role of community science, perceptions, values, and environmental justice in risk communication

Risk communication is often viewed as imparting information and perhaps as a two-way dialogue. Risk communication inadequacies on the part of both “communicator” and “community members” can lead to adverse consequences and amplify environmental justice disparities. The paper suggests a transformational approach where risk communicators must learn to trust community experts and their knowledge base (and act upon it), where risk information imparted by risk communicators addresses what communities are most concerned about (as well as risk from specific chemicals or radionuclides), and where risk information and assessments address underlying issues and disparities, as well as cultural traditions (among others). Providing risk probabilities is no longer sufficient; western science may not be enough, and community and native scientific knowledge is needed. Risk communication (or information transfer) for environmental risks that are ongoing usually applies to low-income, minority communities—people living in dense inner cities, rural communities, Native American communities—or to people living near a risky facility. Communication within this context requires mutual trust, listening and respect, as well as acceptance of indigenous and community knowledge as equally valuable. Examples are given to illustrate a community perspective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Overview of the Risk Assessment Information System

This technical memorandum (TM) presents an overview of the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS), a collection of web-based tools designed to assist with the environmental risk assessment process. The objective of the RAIS is to be a single resource for the risk assessment process, providing guidance when planning and performing the steps: data assessment, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. The RAIS evolved as a result of the initial remediation efforts at various United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. The goal was to increase the efficiency and transparency of the human health and ecological assessments being performed by DOE’s Office of Environmental Management, Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) office by providing a repository for toxicity information, physicochemical data, risk assessment procedures, standardized risk calculation methods, and web-based tools. Since the initial launch in 1996, the RAIS has expanded its user base outside of the federal government and now has users from over 100 countries, universities, states, and local governments. What sets the RAIS apart from other risk assessment sites are the publicly available, searchable toxicity and physicochemical databases and the wide range of chemical and radionuclide risk calculation tools. The purpose of this TM is to present the RAIS tools in order of the website menus and explain how they fit in the risk assessment process. In addition, this TM describes differences between the chemical and radionuclide tools of the RAIS. Screening level equations, chronic daily intake equations, and default exposure factors used in the chemical and radionuclide calculators are included in the appendices of this TM. This TM is not intended to be a detailed guide to risk assessment or the RAIS tools. The tools on the RAIS can be used to comply with procedures from multiple agencies, including but not limited to DOE, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and many state governments. Further information on the RAIS tools can be found in the user guides and tutorials available on the webpage.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Hydrogen-Powered Locomotive Refueling

Hydrogen powered locomotives are being explored to reduce emissions in rail applications. The risks of operations like refueling should be understood to ensure safe environments for workers and members of the public. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using HyRAM+ to identify major drivers of risk and compare effects of system parameters on individual risk. The consequences of jet fires from full-bore leaks dominated the risk, compared to explosions or smaller leaks. Pipe size, leak detection capability, and leak frequencies of system components greatly affected risk while overpressure modeling parameters and ambient conditions had little effect. The effects of personal protective equipment (PPE) materials on individual risk were quantified by reducing the individual’s exposure time or absorbed thermal dose. PPE only showed a risk reduction in low-risk cases. This study highlighted target areas for risk mitigation, including leak detection equipment and component maintenance, and indicated that the minimal effects of other parameters on risk may not justify prescriptive requirements for refueling operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries: Summary of Laboratory Directed Research & Development Effort

The Tactical Analysis for Calculating Contextual Risk at Boundaries (TACCRAB) tool is an innovative digital twin (DT) platform and automated risk algorithm designed to transform operational decision-making in structured screening environments, with an initial focus on Southern Border Land Ports of Entry (POEs). The invention provides integration points for advanced artificial intelligence, predictive modeling, and real-time data analysis to produce a comprehensive risk management tool that enables proactive, data-informed security strategies. The core inventive features of TACCRAB center on its unique risk algorithm, which dynamically calculates contextual risk by synthesizing historical data, near real-time streaming data from the checkpoints themselves, and AI-generated predictions. Unlike traditional risk assessment methods, TACCRAB utilizes a DT to provide comprehensive operational insights, allowing stakeholders to visualize, simulate, and optimize checkpoint configurations with unprecedented speed and contextual awareness. TACCRAB's key innovation lies in its ability to combine multiple complex inputs - including technology detection probabilities, resource availability, screening pathway characteristics, and threat actor behavioral patterns - into a unified risk calculation and update these inputs based on changing operational and environmental conditions. By leveraging a DT that continuously updates and learns from linked data, TACCRAB can suggest adaptive mitigation strategies that minimize risk while maintaining operational efficiency. Particularly novel is the platform's approach to decision support, which goes beyond static risk assessment. The DT provides dynamic metrics such as wait times, resource allocation effectiveness, and potential emerging threat scenarios, enabling users to view sophisticated, relevant what-if simulations and optimize checkpoint operations in near real-time. The system's architecture allows for generalized application across different screening environments, such as secure facilities, ports of entry, and soft targets, making it a versatile tool for security and operational management. The invention distinguishes itself through its comprehensive integration of predictive modeling, AI-driven pattern discovery, and user-friendly interface design. By combining these elements, TACCRAB transforms complex risk data into actionable insights, supporting decision-makers at various organizational levels - from booth agents making split-second screening decisions to checkpoint managers optimizing the day's resource allocation to strategic planners managing long-term investments.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

The association between neighborhood obesogenic factors and prostate cancer risk and mortality: the Southern Community Cohort Study

Background: Prostate cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality among men in the United States. We examined the role of neighborhood obesogenic attributes on prostate cancer risk and mortality in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS). Methods: From the total of 34,166 SCCS male participants, 28,356 were included in the analysis. We assessed the relationship between neighborhood obesogenic factors [neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) and neighborhood obesogenic environment indices including the restaurant environment index, the retail food environment index, parks, recreational facilities, and businesses] and prostate cancer risk and mortality by controlling for individual-level factors using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. We further stratified prostate cancer risk analysis by race and body mass index (BMI). Results: Median follow-up time was 133 months [interquartile range (IQR): 103, 152], and the mean age was 51.62 (SD: ± 8.42) years. There were 1,524 (5.37%) prostate cancer diagnoses and 98 (6.43%) prostate cancer deaths during follow-up. Compared to participants residing in the wealthiest quintile, those residing in the poorest quintile had a higher risk of prostate cancer (aHR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.12–1.57, p = 0.001), particularly among non-obese men with a BMI < 30 (aHR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.07–1.98, p = 0.016). The restaurant environment index was associated with a higher prostate cancer risk in overweight (BMI ≥ 25) White men (aHR = 3.37, 95% CI 1.04–10.94, p = 0.043, quintile 1 vs. None). Obese Black individuals without any neighborhood recreational facilities had a 42% higher risk (aHR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.04–1.94, p = 0.026) compared to those with any access. Compared to residents in the wealthiest quintile and most walkable area, those residing within the poorest quintile (aHR = 3.43, 95% CI 1.54–7.64, p = 0.003) or the least walkable area (aHR = 3.45, 95% CI 1.22–9.78, p = 0.020) had a higher risk of prostate cancer death. Conclusion: Living in a lower-nSES area was associated with a higher prostate cancer risk, particularly among Black men. Restaurant and retail food environment indices were also associated with a higher prostate cancer risk, with stronger associations within overweight White individuals. Finally, residing in a low-SES neighborhood or the least walkable areas were associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer mortality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development and application of an environmental risk register for marine energy device and project developers

The marine energy industry is steadily advancing as more devices are deployed worldwide. However, several challenges and barriers remain, such as lingering uncertainty regarding the potential environmental effects of marine energy devices on marine animals, habitats, and ecosystems. Concerns have led to difficulty navigating permitting and consenting processes and receiving authorization to deploy devices in the marine environment, including extended timelines and costs. Based on existing risk registers, a novel marine energy environmental risk register was created to help the marine energy industry move beyond these barriers. This risk register aims to aid marine energy device and project developers identify and assess potential environmental risks early in device design or project planning, document and track potential environmental interactions, prioritize risks and determine risk responses, and make decisions throughout device or project development. It can also be used as a tool to assist in communicating with regulators and advisors during permitting processes and to inform stakeholder and community engagement efforts. This paper details the methods and process to develop a risk register specific to environmental effects of marine energy and describes two use cases (one for wave energy and another for tidal energy) to highlight example results. Due to the tool's novelty, the paper showcases its application for the marine energy industry and acknowledges limitations and possible future improvements. Overall, the environmental risk register shows promise to support marine energy developers when identifying, tracking, and addressing potential environmental risks and to help successfully navigate permitting and deploy marine energy devices responsibly.

Environmental effects↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Information needs, approaches, and case studies in human health risk communication

This article uses ten case studies to illustrate the information needs, various communication approaches, and the communicator's role in explaining environmental health risks from a variety of hazards, to a variety of audiences, over time frames from days to years, using in person consultation, lectures, zooms, and email formats. Events often had a long history before the communication began and may have had a long tail afterward. Audiences may be public officials, companies, workers, communities, or individuals. Each individual may have their own understanding or mental model regarding the hazard, exposure, and risk. The communicator's role or intention may be to reassure an audience that has unrealistic exaggerated concerns or fears or to protect a client if the fears are realistic. Or it may be altruistic to inform a complacent audience to take the risks it faces more seriously. Although risk assessment research has advanced the techniques for communicating abstruse probabilities to audiences with low numeracy, in my experience, audiences are unimpressed by precise–sounding probability numbers, and are more interested in whether exposure is occurring or may occur and how to stop it. Often audiences have reason to be outraged and may be more concerned about punishing wrong doers than about the hazard itself, particularly when the exposure is past and cannot be undone. Thus, there is a difference between discussing the riskiness of a situation (risk communication) and what you are going to do about the situation (risk management). Risk communication is successful when the audience responds as intended, calming down or taking action. These case studies are drawn from a large number of risk communication experiences that I and my Rutgers colleagues have engaged in over the past four decades. Through the 20th century, New Jersey was the most densely industrialized State in United States. New Jersey experienced growth of the chemical and petrochemical industries and the unfortunately profligate disposal of toxic wastes. Having the most Superfund sites of any state is a dubious distinction, but New Jersey also has the most experience in evaluating and responding to these hazards.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Risk-Informed Approach for Regulatory Approval of Microreactor Transport

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is addressing the challenges associated with safe transport of microreactors including the development and evaluation of regulatory options. PNNL developed a risk-informed regulatory framework for the licensing of the transportation of microreactors in which irradiated nuclear fuel is part microreactor transportation package. The framework lays out a viable regulatory pathway, including decision points for regulatory options and the supporting technical evaluations for those options in phases from near to long term. A microreactor and its contents will likely not be able to meet all the federal regulatory requirements as a Type B or fissile material transportation package under 10 CFR Part 71 (“Packaging and Transportation of Radioactive Material”). However, the regulatory framework developed by PNNL lays out a viable risk-informed licensing options that are safe and feasible. Risk assessment such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) can be used to show comparable safety to that provided by a Type B or fissile material package for surface transport. The framework includes guidance on applicable regulations and discusses historical precedence in using risk information for transportation licensing. The framework includes guidance for performing a microreactor transportation PRA, use and development of risk evaluation criteria, and factors such of defense-in-depth and safety margin concepts. Key advantages of using the approach are (1) increasing the likelihood of successfully obtaining regulatory transportation package approval, (2) informing the design on the relative risk significance of microreactor containment and shielding, and (3) informing the need for transportation compensatory measures. This paper focuses on two primary elements of the framework which are development of a transportation PRA for microreactor packages and development of the risk acceptance guidelines to assess the results of the PRA for regulatory decision-making.

microreactor, micro nuclear power plant, MNPP, ris↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating risk assessment methods for carbon storage: A case study for the quest carbon capture and storage facility

This paper documents how tools developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) complement the Bowtie risk assessment approach through the demonstration of a risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facility near Edmonton, Alberta with the NRAP Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP Open-IAM). The Bowtie risk assessment for the Quest CCS site was developed by Shell Canada Ltd., who operates the asset on behalf of the Athabasca Oil Sand Project — a joint venture, owned by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, Chevron Canada and Shell Canada Ltd. The Quest Bowtie treats site risk comprehensively – considering a large set of technical and project risks (e.g., operational risks, above ground infrastructure, public perception, etc.). NRAP tools, methods, and analyses are focused on quantitative assessment of subsurface technical risks. NRAP-Open-IAM was used to evaluate potential groundwater impacts at the Quest site, i.e., a sufficient change above background groundwater quality levels to be measurable, should CO 2 and/or brine leak from the reservoir via a faulty and/or compromised wellbore. Our results show there is a low potential for groundwater impact and support a further reduction (from ~460 to 100 km 2 ) to the established AoR for the Quest site. Integrating both approaches early in the site characterization period could significantly benefit commercial-scale projects by drastically reducing the region over which leakage risks (e.g., legacy wells) need to be evaluated, i.e., the AoR. This is especially true for brownfield sites, which could contain hundreds to thousands of legacy wells. Further, basing monitoring network design on those regions where impacts are most likely to occur has the potential to facilitate more efficient deployment of monitoring technologies and improve the likelihood of detecting a leak should one occur.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗