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At least 109 records · Page 6

A Novel Secondary Frequency Regulation with Optimal Priority Selection of AGC Contributions

Automatic generation control (AGC) is used to maintain acceptable frequencies during operation owing to fluctuations in load and variable resources. In conventional industry applications, the AGC signal is allocated to each generator according to the predispatched frequency regulation capacity or the order of economic efficiency. However, with the increasing integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), the retirement of conventional synchronous generators (SGs) has posed new challenges to frequency control schemes because fewer of them are optional for AGC regulation. In this paper, we propose a novel model predictive control (MPC)-based frequency regulation model to reduce control cost and ensure stability, by considering different critical dynamic factors when optimally selecting the AGC units. The proposed control model – developed in a general form – comprehensively embeds characteristics such as generator ramping rates, reserve capacity, and operation cost. The model predictive control–based two-timescale AGC scheme enhances the capability of immunizing the power disturbance from types of resources by coordinating the control signals between faster IBRs and slower SGs. The case study’s proposed model is verified to be effective in synergistically enforcing different dynamic properties of AGC units into the frequency regulation scheme.

Jiang, Sufan [The University of North Carolina at ↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Energy and AI

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This webinar will provide an overview of the interactions between energy and AI and highlight two MSD projects exploring the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI. Presenters : Dr. Casey Burleyson (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Dr. Stephanie Morris (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Kendall Mongird (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: June 16th, 2025 from 1-2 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Energy and AI: Evaluating Future Grid and Water Stress Due to Data Centers

Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This presentation highlights the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI.

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A simulation framework for evaluating electronic order workflows in integrated health records

Electronic health record (EHR) systems are critical to modern healthcare delivery, yet the dynamic workflows that govern electronic order processing remain underexplored. Inefficiencies in these digital pathways can cause delays in care, repetitive workloads, and even patient harm. This study presents a discrete-event simulation framework used to reconstruct and evaluate EHR-based order workflows in a large integrated healthcare system. Using real-world data extracted from the Veterans Health Administration’s Corporate Data Warehouse, the authors mapped order events to standardized state transitions and modeled their progression across different facilities of varying complexity levels. After being calibrated with empirical distributions of transition times and validated against observed time-in-system metrics, the simulation demonstrates close alignment with historical performance. Scenario analyses reveal that resource capacity constraints significantly amplify the impact of electronic order surges, which are reflected in the disproportionate growth in backlogs and processing delays. Adjustments in transition probabilities further increased recirculation and extended workflow paths. Network-based analysis identified Reserved, InProgress, and Completed as structurally critical states that function as hubs within the process network but the transitions in-between also act as major bottlenecks. These results showcased the effectiveness of simulation-based approaches in monitoring EHR order processing performance and evaluating consequences of workflow changes on healthcare network resources planning. The proposed simulation framework provides a scalable data-driven tool to support operational decision-making and improve the efficiency of electronic order management in complex healthcare environments.

Engineering↗

Final Report for ARPA-E NODES "Real-Time Optimization and Control of Next-Generation Distribution Infrastructure" Project

The project examined next-generation power distribution systems with high levels of power- electronics-interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) that include: renewable energy systems (RESs), energy-storage devices, electric vehicles, fuel cells, small-scale diesel generators, and controllable loads. The project developed a comprehensive distribution- network management framework that unifies real-time voltage and frequency control with network-wide energy management under an integrated framework. The aim of the project was to: i) systematically optimize network-wide operation and congruently regulate voltages and frequency in the face of high volatility induced by rapidly varying RES and uncontrolled loads; ii) facilitate high renewable integration beyond 50% on an energy basis; iii) meet power-quality requirements and operational constraints; and, iv) respect response, ramp- time, and hold-time requirements for synthetic frequency and regulating reserves via fast- and longer-term dynamic energy management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Software defined grid energy storage

Today, consumer battery installations are isolated, physical devices. Virtual power plants (VPPs) allow consumer devices to aggregate for grid services, but they are are vertically integrated, vendor controlled systems (e.g., Tesla’s VPP). Consumer batteries are therefore unable to participate in energy markets or other grid services outside what their vendor provides. We describe a software system that provides software control of multiple, networked battery energy storage systems in the electric grid. The system introduces two new ideas that enable flexible and dependable management of energy storage. The first is a virtual battery, which can either partition a battery or aggregate multiple batteries. The second is a reservation-based API which allows asynchronous control of batteries to meet contractual guarantees in a safe and dependable manner. Virtual batteries and a reservation-based API address the unique challenges of achieving high and efficient utilization of energy storage systems, including heterogeneity of battery systems such as varying C-rates, participation in energy markets, utility bill management systems, community resource sharing, and reliability. Using a testbed comprised of sonnen Inc. storage units installed in several homes and a lab, we demonstrate that virtualized batteries can seamlessly replace physical batteries, flexibly manage energy storage resources, isolate multiple clients using a shared battery, and create new energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Concurrent Optimization of Capital Cost and Expected O&M

Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies can utilize heat from concentrated sunlight from a field of tracking mirrors to generate electricity, reform fuel, provide process heat, or augment fossil plant heat sources. Electricity-generating power tower systems focus light from thousands of independent heliostats onto a thermal receiver, which uses the focused light to warm a heat transfer fluid (HTF), typically, a molten nitrate salt. The HTF is then sent to a power generation cycle or diverted into thermal energy storage (TES) for later use. Thermal storage is – in principle – a straightforward proposition. However, optimal utilization of a TES resource is complex and multi-faceted: thermal energy may be dispatched to produce electricity immediately upon first availability, or thermal energy may be reserved for next-day peak periods at risk of filling storage and dumping energy, or a portion of the thermal energy can be reserved to maintain equipment temperatures, reducing power cycle startup time, etc. Many possible dispatch permutations variously emphasize producing peak power, operating through transients, expediting daily startup, etc. The best operation strategy can change day-to-day throughout the year, depending on the weather and market pricing forecasts. The project we describe in this report develops a software package that allows users to explore design optimization, operations decisions, and performance characterization of concentrating solar power tower plants. Users interface with the tool through a scripting language, and results are reported in time series tables, plots, runtime logs, and design outputs. Users choose from a list of variables such as tower height, solar multiple, design-point irradiance, thermal storage size, etc., and specify information about the system using a list of parameters. The software can then optimize the specified variables to reduce the cost of energy produced by the system while meeting certain production requirements, accounting for uncertain weather and electricity price forecasts, and correcting for equipment failures or repair time. The software we develop is the first comprehensive design tool of its kind to incorporate all of these aspects while being deployed as open source.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Chapter 1. Clean Grid Scenarios

Chapter 1: Clean Grid Scenarios serves as a broad introduction to the type of future power systems envisioned in the Clean Grid Vision: one with high penetrations of variable renewable energy generation (for example, more than 53% nationally and up to 73% in the Eastern Interconnection) and significant share of natural gas. Our study shows that the conterminous United States has adequate resources to support such systems with current technologies, and these systems can be operated cost-effectively to meet all sub-hourly demand and reserve requirements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advancing Clean Energy Equity

This year’s Financial Innovations Roundtable (June 16-17, 2022) focused on advancing clean energy equity and was co-hosted by the University of New Hampshire's Carsey School of Public Policy and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Clean energy technologies are better than ever, with costs continuing to decline. Yet the low-income and under-resourced communities – particularly communities of color, Native communities, and other traditionally marginalized populations – that are disproportionately impacted by climate and severe weather-related events lag in clean energy investments. Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) have a long track record of providing access to capital to low- and moderate-income communities nationwide. Green Banks, established at state and local levels, use innovative financing to attract private capital and incentivize investments in clean and renewable energy. Together, the nation's network of more than 1,300 CDFIs and 21 Green Banks have the financing expertise and deep market understanding and relationships to finance a transition to clean energy. This event explored how Green Banks and CDFIs can funnel creditworthy projects to market and efficiently raise capital for them. Building on the Carsey School White Paper, Clean Energy Project Development for Low-Income Communities: Strengthening the Ecosystem for Delivering Solar Energy and Deep Efficiency Retrofits (Hangen, 2022), the FIR sought to identify options and create opportunities for Green Banks, CDFIs, and impact investors to collaborate in offering a range of products, approaches, and tools to better serve communities and individuals who have thus far been left out of the transition to clean energy. The event had 101 participants from a variety of sectors including CDFIs, Green Banks, mission-driven clean energy organizations, government agencies, banks, and impact investment professionals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)

How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Historic Architectural Resource Survey of the Dosimetry Applications Research (DOSAR) Facility in the 7700 Area of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

In May 2022, Cultural Resource Analysts, Inc., completed a historic architectural resource survey of buildings associated with the Dosimetry Applications Research Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The laboratory is one of three Department of Energy facilities located on the Oak Ridge Reservation in Roane and Anderson Counties, Tennessee. The Dosimetry Applications Research Facility is located approximately 2 mi southeast of the main Oak Ridge National Laboratory campus. The survey included Buildings 7709, 7710, and 7712, which date to the 1960s. An additional DOSAR building (Building 7735) dates to the late 1980s and was not surveyed since it is outside the period of significance. The survey was conducted at the request of UT-Battelle, LLC, on behalf of the Department of Energy. As stipulated by the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, as amended, the Department of Energy is required to identify any properties under its jurisdiction that are included in or eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places. In order to identify historic properties at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in 2017–2018 Cultural Resource Analysts, Inc., conducted a survey of the main campus as well as outlying facilities, publishing the findings in a 2018 report entitled Oak Ridge National Laboratory Historic Architectural Resource Survey. At the time of the 2017–2018 survey, buildings associated with the Dosimetry Applications Research Facility were not accessible for security reasons and the current report serves as an addendum to the 2018 report. In addition, the current survey incorporates information included in a documentation report on Building 7709 completed in 2019. The properties included in the current survey were also evaluated for their collective potential as a historic district. The identification of archaeological properties that are eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places is beyond the scope of this report. Cultural Resource Analysts, Inc., recommends that none of the buildings surveyed for the current report are individually eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places. However, the collective of buildings represents a facility that made notable contributions to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s scientific research endeavors from the 1960s to the 1980s, specifically in the field of Health Physics. The buildings and their associated features have also maintained their integrity of setting, materials, design, location, and association. Therefore, Cultural Resource Analysts, Inc., proposes the Dosimetry Applications Research Facility Historic District, which is recommended eligible for listing under Criterion A. The three buildings addressed in the current survey (Buildings 7709, 7710, and 7712) are recommended eligible as contributing resources of the historic district. The district boundary is scribed to incorporate the environs of these three facilities, as well as additional relevant features.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Redefining Net-Zero Water for Resilient Aquifers

Groundwater has long been a critical source of potable water, supplying one-third of all global water withdrawals and providing strategic reserves in times of drought (Konikow, 2012; Famiglietti, 2014). The risk in relying on groundwater is that it is often pumped at rates far greater than it can be naturally replenished. With increasing population and a changing climate, the depletion of potable water supplies has become an ever-growing concern (Srinivasan et al., 2012). Recently, the concept of “resilience” has been applied to groundwater, leaving many questions to be explored in terms of what resilience should mean for aquifers (Foster and MacDonald, 2014; Grönwall and Oduro-Kwarteng, 2017). The term is commonly used to indicate resilience to impacts of climate change specifically, but here we consider resilience in the context of more general water insecurity. Relatedly, the concept of “sustainable yield” has emerged in an attempt to determine a metric that can ensure the long-term resilience of groundwater systems, but the definition is fraught with inherent uncertainties and its quantification poses challenges (Rudestam and Langridge, 2014; Grönwall and Oduro-Kwarteng, 2017). At the heart of these concepts is a focus on sustainable management of aquifers. A sustainable approach to managing groundwater resources usually involves balancing long-term abstraction with the long-term recharge taking into account the needs for environmental flows and implementing drought-preparedness measures (Robins et al. 2006; Foster and MacDonald, 2014). At a high level, a sustainable balance of groundwater abstraction versus aquifer recharge may be considered “Net Zero” (NZ) or “Net Positive” (NP) in cases where recharge is equal to or in excess of abstraction, respectively. However, NZ/NP water management programs that address these concerns have varied definitions of compliance, which include considerations for the application at hand (ILFI, 2020; USGBC, 2020). Locations with high risk of low or poor water supply may be particularly interested in pursuing NZ/NP water. The AQUEDUCT Water Risk Atlas (World Resources Institute, 2019) indicates long-term availability, providing risk levels for quantity and quality of water at specific locations across the globe, for existing and predicted future conditions. This paper follows the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) NZ water definition adopted by the U.S. Army for use at their installations, including Army Reserve Centers (ARCs). This definition also relates to the U.S. Army’s current focus on water resilience, which includes short-term and long-term availability of water resources.

net zero water, HUC12, Saipan, American Samoa, Mau↗

Sustainable Coal Tar Pitch Carbon Fiber Manufacturing

Coal is a versatile resource that has historically propelled the Industrial Revolution, transportation, and energy generation, and continues to meet needs for power. The United States possesses the largest worldwide coal reserves (with a 2019 total production-to-recoverable-reserves ratio of 0.05) that are of high quality and are cost-effective to recover (i.e., $0.03/kg–$0.10/kg). However, the demand of coal for power generation has declined because of a shift to natural gas (because of lower natural gas prices) and to renewable energy sources. This decline has affected the economic viability US coal industry. Historically, domestic demand for coal was driven mostly by the electric power sector, which accounts for about 93% of the total demand, followed by industrial uses (primarily for cement and chemicals at a minimal level) and steel production (coke). The complex, dense carbon chemical structure of coal, abundant domestic supply, and stable, low price gives it great potential for use in a wide range of value-added non-fuel coal products (e.g., nanomaterials at $20,000/kg–$100,000/kg and commercial-grade carbon fiber at $22/kg–$33/kg), as well as in upgraded coal fuels.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Revisions to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Well Grading System

This report presents revisions to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) well grading framework. The well grading framework is composed of multiple components and was developed as a guide in application of well remediation and monitoring resources. The revisions were applied to enhance the efficiency and consistency of the well grading process across the four SPR sites. Documentation of the revisions and any significant impact from these revisions are also discussed. The current general workflow for the application and updating of the well grades is also provided.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Grid-Forming PV Inverter: Technology Development and Microgrid Applications

Presently, excluding residential backup power applications, grid-forming (GFM) inverters are commercially available for battery energy storage system (BESS) and some PV plus battery systems but not yet for stand-alone PV. This tech update investigates the control design for GFM PV inverter, especially the control required to provide active power reserve and to stabilize the dc link voltage. Subsequently, the use cases of GFM PV plants in utility-level microgrids are discussed considering fully inverter-based microgrids (i.e., with PV and BESS) as well as mixed-source microgrids (i.e., with PV and diesel generator). Scenarios where active power up-reserve from GFM PV plants is beneficial are illustrated. Moreover, requirements and specifications for GFM PV plant, especially for its active power reserve function are developed. In addition, stability of an example utility-level microgrid with two GFM PV plants and a diesel generator is analyzed to shed light on the potential unstable interaction between multiple GFM resources and the countermeasures. This research aims to advance GFM PV technology to offer more flexibility in microgrid design. With GFM PV available, depending on the level of reliability required, cost-benefit analysis, etc., the GFM BESS or diesel generator may be sized smaller while leveraging the full potential of PV generation inside the microgrid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Wholesale Electricity Market Design to Support Resource Adequacy

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

agent based modeling↗

Chapter 7: Predictive Analytics in Future Power Systems: A Panorama and State-of-the-Art of Deep Learning Applications

The challenges surrounding the optimal operation of power systems are growing in various dimensions, due in part to increasingly distributed energy resources and a progression towards large-scale transportation electrification. Currently, the increasing uncertainties associated with both renewable energy generation and demand are largely being managed by increasing operational reserves - potentially at the cost of suboptimal economic conditions - in order to maintain the reliability of the system. This chapter looks at the big picture role of forecasting in power systems from generation to consumption and provides a comprehensive review of traditional approaches for forecasting generation and load in various contexts. This chapter then takes a deep dive into the state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches for power systems forecasting. Furthermore, a case study of multi-time-horizon solar irradiance forecasting using deep learning is discussed in detail. Smart grids form the backbone of the future interdependent networks. For addressing the challenges associated with the operations of smart grid, development and wide adoption of machine learning and deep learning algorithms capable of producing better forecasting accuracies is urgently needed. Along with exploring the implementation and benefits of these approaches, this chapter also considers the strengths and limitations of deep learning algorithms for power systems forecasting applications. This chapter, thus, provides a panoramic view of state-of-the-art of predictive analytics in power systems in the context of future smart grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗