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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Path to Navigating the Storm: Load Forecasting and Increasing Resilience in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) provided a comprehensive analysis of pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050, based on extensive stakeholder input. The study illuminates immediate and longer-term investments needed to achieve reliability while pursuing Puerto Rico's energy goals and addressing critical energy needs. Expected benefits of these investments include improvements in safety, security, health, and economic opportunity.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting EV Charging Demand on the Distribution System

The U.S. transportation and electricity sectors have historically operated independently, but the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) is driving their convergence. After decades of stagnant demand, utilities must prepare for rising load growth, driven in part by transportation electrification. Utilities must anticipate when and where these new loads will materialize to effectively manage EV growth and maintain grid reliability. This presentation outlines NREL's approach to developing high-resolution EV load datasets for distribution planning, with insights from the Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study on EV and load forecasting, infrastructure requirements, and managed charging strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modern deep neural networks for Direct Normal Irradiance forecasting: A classification approach

The escalating energy demand and the adverse environmental impacts of fossil-fuel use necessitate a shift towards cleaner and renewable alternatives. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technology emerges as a promising solution, offering a carbon-free alternative for power generation. The efficiency and profitability of CSP depend on the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) component of solar radiation; hence, accurate DNI forecasting can help optimize CSP plants’ operations and performance. The unpredictable nature of weather phenomena, particularly cloud cover, introduces uncertainty into DNI projections. Existing DNI forecasting models use meteorological factors, which are both challenging to estimate numerically over short prediction windows and expensive to model through data at a sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. This research addresses the challenge by presenting a novel approach that formulates DNI prediction as a multi-class classification problem, departing from conventional regression-based methods. The primary objective of this classification framework is to identify optimal periods aligning with specific operational thresholds for CSP plants, contributing to enhanced dispatch optimization strategies. We model the DNI classification problem using four advanced deep neural networks – rectified linear unit (ReLU) networks, 1D residual networks (ResNets), bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and transformers – achieving accuracies up to 93.5% without requiring meteorological parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2005

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Science Research for Energy Management: Overview of Energy Issues and an Assessment of the Potential for Application of NASA Earth Science Research - Part 1

Effective management of energy resources is critical for the U.S. economy, the environment, and, more broadly, for sustainable development and alleviating poverty worldwide. The scope of energy management is broad, ranging from energy production and end use to emissions monitoring and mitigation and long-term planning. Given the extensive NASA Earth science research on energy and related weather and climate-related parameters, and rapidly advancing energy technologies and applications, there is great potential for increased application of NASA Earth science research to selected energy management issues and decision support tools. The NASA Energy Management Program Element is already involved in a number of projects applying NASA Earth science research to energy management issues, with a focus on solar and wind renewable energy and developing interests in energy modeling, short-term load forecasting, energy efficient building design, and biomass production.

Atmospheric models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Wind-Hybrid Microgrids with Autonomous Controls and Forecasting

Distributed wind-hybrid microgrids have the potential to provide key resilience and economic benefits to both the customers they serve and the utility grids they are connected to. Such microgrids will likely be a key part of the grid of the future, whether connected to large utility grids or linked together in multi-microgrid systems. Through the hybridization of distributed wind and solar photovoltaics, autonomous device-level and system-level controls, battery energy storage systems with smart inverters, and forecasting, these microgrids could maintain local stability and provide grid services - all with renewable power. In the literature, these elements have been considered individually. However, they have not been combined and demonstrated at a high fidelity, which is essential to prove the concept's operation before moving to hardware-in-the-loop and physical demonstrations. In this work, we develop a high-fidelity MATLAB-Simulink model of a real distributed wind-hybrid microgrid that includes all these elements. We demonstrate the microgrid maintaining stability and production in a variety of islanded, grid-connected, and transition scenarios. This includes riding through faults and grid transitions, handling resource variability, and providing grid services. The results demonstrate, at a high fidelity, how distributed wind-hybrid microgrids can operate in an economic and resilient fashion. Finally, we provide recommendations for future research to move advanced distributed wind-hybrid microgrids toward deployment.

ancillary services↗
DOE OSTI2020

Offshore Wind Project Study (Final Technical Report)

Within the Long Island electric service territory and throughout New York State there is increasing interest in and mandate for increasing clean energy technologies and renewable energy generation while reducing dependency on fossil fuels for electric production with goal of a carbon free system by 2040. This report discusses the implications of the reduction of forecasted load in the Long Island electric service territory and the impact of energy efficiency; increasing reliance of wind and other renewable resources on the transmission system; opportunities for interconnecting these resources; and reductions on the reliance of baseload fossil fueled power facilities over the coming years.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]

Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.

Frank, Stephen↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗
DOE OSTI2023

USAID Colombia Young Leaders Workforce Training Program Action Plans: Forecasting Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia

As part of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Young Leaders Workforce Training Program in Colombia, the Association of Renewable Energies Colombia (SER) participants leveraged their training and professional experience to develop an action plan for modeling the projected adoption of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) out to 2050 for the city of Barranquilla, Colombia. This case study provides an overview of the key activities and outcomes of the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen™) Colombia project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Day-Ahead PV Estimation Using Autoencoder-LSTM and Persistence Model

Inherent variability in photovoltaic (PV) and associated impacts on power systems is a challenging problem for both the PV owners and the grid operators. Existing statistical and machine learning algorithms typically work well for weather conditions similar to historical data. Furthermore, uncertain weather conditions pose a great challenge to the estimation accuracy of the estimation models. With the enhanced integration of intelligent electronic devices and the realization of associated automation in the power grid, renewable energy data is becoming more accessible, which can be utilized by deep learning models and improve the PV power generation estimation accuracy. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model driven by external weather data is proposed to do day-ahead PV output forecasting at 15-minute-interval. The proposed model is motivated by the recent advancement of Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks and AutoEncoder (AE), which estimates uncertainties in sequence while making the prediction for complex weather conditions. Meanwhile, the persistence model (PM) is used to predict continuous sunny weather conditions. The forecasting result is validated with data from multiple locations

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1981

AgRISTARS: Agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing

The major objectives and FY 1980 accomplishments are described of a long term program designed to determine the usefulness, cost, and extent to which aerospace remote sensing data can be integrated into existing or future USDA systems to improve the objectivity, reliability, timeliness, and adequacy of information. A general overview, the primary and participating agencies, and the technical highlights of each of the following projects are presented: early warning/crop condition assessment; foreign commodity production forecasting; yield model development; supporting research; soil moisture; domestic crops and land cover; renewable resources inventory; and conservation and pollution.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field Study of Grid-connected Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Southeast U.S.: The Next Right Thing

The integration of grid-connected functionality and advanced control algorithms into heat pump water heaters (HPWH) offers the capability to shift load with minimal customer impact. This capability provides a flexible grid resource to utilities, while the increased energy efficiency of HPWHs offers customers a lower electric bill. The combined utility/customer value from grid-connected HPWHs is compelling in the Southeast U.S. where residential electric water heating is prevalent and utility load management is common. This paper presents the results of a HPWH load shifting study conducted in Central Florida using the CTA-2045 standard. Building upon previous research in the Pacific Northwest, this study consisted of approximately 45 occupied homes equipped with HPWHs undergoing load shifting strategies weekly for over a year. Curtailment durations ranged from three to five hours in the morning, and four to five hours in the evening to coincide with high-value periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. During the morning and afternoon, a one- or two-hour load-up event preceded curtailment. Baseline data were collected across varied Florida weather in which no load shifting events were implemented. Results from traditional load shifting strategies were analyzed across seasons and used to devise unique load shifting approaches to increase renewable energy use during periods of high solar energy generation. Regional impacts are forecasted for large-scale implementation of strategies. Lessons learned and recommendations are also provided for how utilities, manufacturers, and regional planners can maximize load shifting benefits from grid-connected HPWHs.

Heat pump water heaters, residential building, loa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marine renewable energy for Arctic observations

Arctic observations are becoming increasingly valuable as researchers investigate climate change and its associated concerns, such as decreasing sea ice and increasing ship traffic. Networks of sensors with frequent sampling capabilities are needed to run forecast models, improve navigation, and inform climate research. Sampling frequency and deployment duration are currently constrained by battery power limitations. In-situ power generation using marine renewable energy sources such as waves and currents can be used to circumvent this constraint. Wave and current resources vary spatially and temporally in the Arctic, with some locations and seasons being better suited for marine renewable energy power generation. Locations and seasons with small resources may still be able to use marine renewable energy because of the low power requirements of the instruments. In this study, we describe the wave and current resources in the Arctic, outline the electricity generation developments that are needed to utilize the resources, and suggest use cases. Wave and current energy converters developed to power observations in the Arctic could also be used to power observations at lower latitudes. Marine renewable energy has the potential to decrease dependence on batteries and improve data collection capabilities in the Arctic; however, this would require the development of new low power technologies that can operate in extreme Arctic environments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chapter Ten - Power, Buildings, and Other Critical Networks: Integrated Multisystem Operation

The electrifying transportation sector, the increasing grid interactivity of the built environment, the rapidly expanding number of devices within the Internet-of-Things, and the overall trend toward highly connected systems and interdependent networks is revolutionizing the operation of the electric power grid. While these changes are presenting grid operators with new challenges to ensure an efficient, reliable, and sustainable operation of the grid, they also enable a new suite of resources that can be utilized for assisting the grid in times of need. In this chapter, we explore how these recent changes and trends are affecting modern power systems and discuss the benefits and challenges of an increasingly electrified and interconnected world. We will observe how various critical infrastructure, that is, buildings, water and gas, transportation, and telecommunication networks are highly dependent on power network operations but, with improved coordination and control, can also provide valuable assets to the grid in times of need.

electricity markets↗
NASA NTRS1985

Overview of the AgRISTARS research program. I

An account is given of the activities and accomplishments to date of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS) program, which is a cooperative venture with NASA and the Departments of the Interior and of Commerce. AgRISTARS research activities encompass early warning and crop condition assessment, inventory technology development for production forecasting, crop yield model development, soil moisture monitoring, domestic crops and land cover sensing, renewable resources inventory, and conservation and pollution assessment.

Caudill, C. E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal control technology for distributed energy resources

Devices and methods of allocating distributed energy resources (DERs) to loads connected to a microgrid based on the cost of the DERs are provided. The devices and methods may determine one or more microgrid measurements. The devices and methods may determine one or more real-time electricity prices associated with utility generation sources. The devices and methods may determine one or more forecasts. The devices and methods may determine a cost associated with one or more renewable energy sources within the microgrid. The devices and methods may determine an allocation of the renewable sources to one or more loads in the microgrid.

Meeker, Richard H.↗