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DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing NDE Reliability for Grade 91 Steel Welds: Ultrasonic Imaging and Microstructural Correlations

Ensuring the integrity of Grade 91 (9Cr-1Mo-V) steel welds is vital for the safe and reliable operation of fossil fuel–fired and nuclear power plants. Here, this study applies an imaging technique for the ultrasonic characterization of two Grade 91 steel welds created with cold metal transfer and flux-cored arc welding processes. Ultrasonic immersion testing in the through-transmission configuration was employed to generate shear waves, which helped identify the weld metal, heat-affected zone, and base metal regions. These weld microstructures were also correlated to their ultrasonic images using metallography, ultrasonic amplitude, hardness measurements, and grain size. The findings from this study can assist practitioners in developing new nondestructive evaluation technologies, improving the inspection reliability of creep strength–enhanced ferritic steel welds by potentially identifying weld microstructure regions susceptible to creep-type failures.

Grade 91 steel↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate

Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving Reliability of Large Language Models for Nuclear Power Plant Diagnostics Technical Presentation

Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle out of the box when answering factually about detailed questions, especially in domains that are sparsely represented in their training data. This causes hallucinations and reduces reliability making it difficult for them to be used in practice. This work shows that using RAG techniques can improve factual accuracy and reliability, allowing for the application of LLMs in specialized areas, even when those areas that aren’t extensively covered in their initial training.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Capturing Historic Reliability Performance Through Graph Databases: A Model Based System Engineering Approach

With the goal of improving the performance and reliability of high dependable technological systems such as nuclear power plants, advanced monitoring and health management systems are employed to inform system engineers on observed degradation processes and anomalous behaviors of assets and components. This information is captured in the form of large amount of data which can be heterogenous in nature (e.g., numeric, textual). Such large data availability poses challenges when system engineers are required to parse and analyze them in order to track historic reliability performance of assets and components. This paper tackles directly this challenge by providing means to organize data in the form of a graph: a knowledge graph. The presented approach distinguish itself from current knowledge graph-based methods by the fact that model-based system engineering (MBSE) models are used to “put data into context”. In particular, MBSE models are used as skeleton of a knowledge graph; numeric and textual data elements, once processed, are associated to MBSE model elements. Thus, a knowledge graph captures both system architecture (though MBSE models) and health/performance data. Such feature opens the door to new data analytics methods designed to identify causal relations between observed phenomena.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Playa de Ponce's Advancements in Energy Affordability and Reliability

Un Nuevo Amanecer Inc. (UNA), a community-based nonprofit organization, partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) to develop a Strategic Energy Plan (SEP) for the community of Playa de Ponce on the southern coast of Puerto Rico. The SEP provides a community-driven roadmap to improve local energy systems by identifying shared priorities, strategies, and actions that support a more reliable, affordable, and resilient energy future. Over a seven-month period, researchers from the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) worked with UNA, the Puerto Rico Hispanic Federation, community leaders, and residents to gather input through engagement workshops held in March and June 2025. These discussions helped define the community's energy vision and identify key challenges, including high electricity costs, unreliable service during extreme weather events, and risks to public health and safety - particularly for the community's aging population. This fact sheet summarizes the key elements of the Strategic Energy Plan, including four priority strategies organized around three focus areas identified by the community: energy reliability, safety and security, and stakeholder participation, education, and capacity building. Together, these strategies outline actionable pathways to strengthen Playa de Ponce's energy resilience and support long-term community goals. The plan serves as a shared reference for community members, local organizations, and government partners working to advance energy solutions in Playa de Ponce and complements broader municipal and island-wide planning efforts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Playa de Ponce's Advancements in Energy Affordability and Reliability (Spanish Translation)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A mathematical approach to using the forgetting curve to evaluate experience and training factors in human reliability analysis

Traditional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods have difficulty dealing with the dynamic nature of factors such as time and rely on static and expert-judgment-based assessments of performance-shaping factors (PSFs) across limited levels. In this study, we introduce a mathematical approach for dynamically evaluating the experience and training PSF. Our proposed method integrates the psychological concept of the “forgetting curve” to evaluate how PSFs are impacted by the number of trainings and the time elapsed since training. To confirm the validity of the model, we provide experimental data fitted by identifying the quantitative relationship between training and human performance. This research enables dynamic and objective assessments, thus reducing reliance on subjective expert judgment and improving the accuracy of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing distributed GPU computing for generalizable graph convolutional networks in power grid reliability assessments

Although machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for rapidly assessing grid contingencies, prior studies have largely considered a static grid topology in their analyses. This limits their application, since they need to be re-trained for every new topology. Here, this paper explores the development of generalizable graph convolutional network (GCN) models by pre-training them across a range of grid topologies and contingency types. We found that a GCN model with auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) layers with a line graph representation of the grid offered the best predictive performance in predicting voltage magnitudes (VM) and voltage angles (VA). We introduced the concept of phantom nodes to consider disparate grid topologies with a varying number of nodes and lines. For pre-training the GCN ARMA model across a variety of topologies, distributed graphics processing unit (GPU) computing afforded us significant training scalability. The predictive performance of this model on grid topologies that were part of the training data is substantially better than the direct current (DC) approximation. Although direct application of the pre-trained model to topologies that are not part of the grid is not particularly satisfactory, fine-tuning with small amounts of data from a specific topology of interest significantly improves predictive performance. In general, this paper highlights the feasibility of training large-scale GNN models to assess the reliability of power grids by considering a wide variety of grid topologies and contingency types. With the advent of foundational models in ML and the exponential increase in GPU computing clusters, generalizable ML models will significantly enhance how utilities manage power systems and make decisions in real-time or near-real-time.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

DuraMAT: Building a Consortium to Accelerate the Photovoltaic Module Reliability Learning Cycle

Durable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) modules are critical to enabling an efficient transition to sustainable energy generation. The rate at which new module designs and materials are developed and deployed currently outpaces the rate at which we can identify failure mechanisms and understand degradation rates. Increasing the service life of PV modules, and our ability to predict performance over time, requires more durable materials and designs, better durability testing, more extensive material characterization, robust modeling, and methods to cross-examine historical performance data to extract meaningful results. This is a multidisciplinary challenge that requires expertise from a broad range of fields and, therefore, benefits significantly from a collaborative approach. In this Perspective, we outline the approach taken by the Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT), present a few case studies where our approach was successful, and provide an outlook on where this approach might be applied as the PV technology landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Temperature Copper Metallization: Demand, Hurdles and Reliability

As newer cells structures come online, the pressing need to replace silver in the metallization pastes has renewed interest in alternative technologies employing base metals. Copper typically leads the charge with its abundance and lower cost but has faced numerous obstacles from relatively higher oxidation and diffusion rates which can damage the lifetime of the devices. In this study, a low-cost alternative to silver metallization pastes has been shown on PERC cells. The screen printable copper paste can be fired in air at temperatures >500 degrees C, and the impact of processing conditions and equipment on the performance and reliability of 274 cm2 cells have been evaluated. Through damp heat testing of micro-modules using 16 cm2 cells, routes that can lead to both the failure and success of durable contacts have been demonstrated.

copper↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Performance and Reliability of Screen-Printable Fire-Through Copper Paste on PERC Solar Cells

In this work, we present the performance and reliability of a fire-through copper (Cu) paste which has been screen printed on c-Si solar cell with passivated emitter rear contact (PERC). The Cu paste is fired through silicon nitride (SiN) anti-reflection coating at a peak temperature of 630 degrees C . SEM images of the Cu paste show a Cu core with ~200 nm oxide shell around the particles. This conductive oxide layer acts as a diffusion barrier between Cu and Si and prevents the degradation of cell performance during accelerated aging conditions. An efficiency of 19.250% has been achieved with Voc=654mV,FF= 76.68%, Jsc=38.40 m.A/cm 2 for champion PERC cells. Accelerated testing of the PERC mini-modules in damp heat chamber with 85 degrees C and 85% humidity have demonstrated that the devices are operational even after 1,500 hours. Devices with screen printed Ag contacts on the front side have been studied in parallel to the Cu contacts for comparison.

copper↗

DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Communications Reliability for Vehicle Grid Integration

Electric Vehicles (EVs) adoption rate has been steadily increasing in the US leading to a growing number of charging stations including faster DC (Direct Current) chargers and slower Level 1 and Level 2 AC (Alternating Current) chargers. This increase in demand for electricity is further exacerbated by recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, advanced manufacturing, and digitization. These factors will require electric utilities to upgrade their infrastructure to keep up with the increasing electrical demand (especially during peak hours). An easy way to counteract the need for these upgrades is to shift a major chunk of active charge sessions (durations where there is energy transfer from charger to EV's propulsion battery) to off-peak hours thereby flattening the load curve and making the infrastructure more resilient. This concept is known as Smart Charge Management (SCM). EV owners also benefit from SCM since it lowers their charging costs and consequently their transportation costs by prioritizing charging during off-peak hours. SCM takes advantage of EV's capability to act as a controllable load or DER (Distributed Energy Resource). This report summarizes the reliability analysis performed on the communication required for two of these SCM use-cases. This analysis only focuses on SCM strategies for unidirectional charging (energy transfer from EVSE to EV or V1G) and not bidirectional charging.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Center Power Systems: Architectures, Impact on Grid Reliability, Modeling Considerations, and Megawatt-Scale Hardware Testing [Slides]

This slide deck describes typical power systems of large datacenters along with reliability problems to bulk power systems from large-scale integration of datacenters. The slide deck covers the architecture of datacenter power systems, different power electronic converters used inside datacenters, their operation modes, and R&Dopportunities in maintaining grid stability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Approach to Ancillary PV Component Reliability Assessment (Final Report)

In this project, we have established a nondestructive, generalized methodology that (1) fuses rich field data with advanced ML for proactive reliability forecasting, (2) dramatically reduces experimental iterations via synthetic dataset generation, and (3) achieves unprecedented regression precision in both anomaly detection and component-level degradation assessment—paving the way for truly predictive maintenance of grid-tied PV inverters under diverse outdoor conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Innovative Interfacial Engineering for Simultaneous Enhancement in Efficiency, Stability, and Reliability in Perovskite Devices

The overarching objective of this project was to increase significantly the mechanical adhesion toughness of the key interfaces in PSCs, thereby improving the durability and reliability of PSCs and minimodules, while simultaneously enhancing their PCE. This is achieved by incorporating rationally-chosen self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) at key PSC interfaces. Inherently scalable methods for the deposition of MHP light-absorber thin films and SAMs are employed to ensure a viable path towards manufacturability. Furthermore, detailed understanding of mechanisms of PSCs and minimodules degradation, and SAMs-induced mitigation, is provided. As part of the project accomplishments, >60% increase in the adhesion toughness of the key PSC interfaces over their SAMs-free control counterparts was achieved. Also, PCEs >20% and >19% in rigid and flexible, respectively, single-junction PSCs (~1 cm 2 area) were achieved. It was shown that <20% PCE loss in flexible PSCs with SAMs can be achieved after bend testing. It was demonstrated that T80 (80% retention of initial PCE) of >5,000 hours in rigid PSCs (~1 cm2 area) can be achieved. Comprehensive understanding of the degradation mechanisms in PSCs was obtained. These strategies were adopted towards developing minimodules. PCE of >21% was obtained in an 6-cm 2 area minimodule, with T91 of 1,000 hours.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

PV Reliability and Resilience in Challenging Climates

Challenging climates for Photovoltaics are usually based on climate classification. However, extreme weather events such as high wind, flooding, large hail, extreme snow etc. have become more ubiquitous globally. To study the impact of extraordinary weather events on PV reliability we used two of the largest databases in the USA. First, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database on extreme weather and secondly, the PV Fleet Data Initiative where we have collected high-resolution PV performance data of more than 8 gigawatts or about 6-7% of all commercial and utility systems in the USA. We analyzed almost 200 systems between 2008-20022 that were immediately impacted by these weather events. The immediate impact (outages) was determined to be about 1% of or a median of approximately 3 days of annual lost production. However, the risk these events pose is exemplified by a long tail where 0.4 % of all systems lost more than 2 weeks annual production. We also found a threshold for high wind (90 km/hr) and hail (25mm), above which we observed significantly higher degradation implying long-term damage to the systems. In addition, we are using satellite imagery to quantify visible damage to PV plants. Finally, we share module, design and installation lessons from some observed case studies to improve extreme weather resilience for PV power systems.

degradation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

The need for reliable bonded interface materials is critical to realize the performance benefits of wide-bandgap devices in power electronic modules, especially in operating temperatures greater than 150 degrees Celsius. In this paper, we investigate the thermomechanical performance of sintered copper (Cu) as a large-area attachment, bonded between Cu baseplates and active-metal-bonded substrates, under accelerated thermal shock (-40 degrees Celsius to 200 degrees Celsius) conditions. In the fabrication phase of the samples, we used different stencil patterns and found out that the grid and stripe patterns resulted in a better outgassing of the residual organics during the sintering process, thereby ensuring a substantially improved bond quality than a full-area print. The paste consisted of Cu microflakes and we performed sintering using a Budatec SP300 sintering press at 275 degrees Celsius with 15 MPa of bonding pressure for 5 minutes in a nitrogen atmosphere. Under accelerated experiments, we monitored the degradation of the sintered Cu bond in the samples through C-mode scanning acoustic microscope (C-SAM) images. To quantify the defect percentage in C-SAM images, we investigated image denoising techniques to exclude the pattern prints. Finally, we cross-sectioned a sample and obtained digital microscope images, which revealed adhesive fracture as the dominant failure mechanism.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗