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DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Software Dependability for Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants - Lessons Learnt from a DOE Sponsored Project

This paper discusses the lessons learnt from a sponsored study undertaken under the sponsorship of the Department of Energy by a team of scientists at the Ohio State University in collaboration with Technology Resources and experts around the world. This paper makes recommendations for future research and studies based on these lessons learnt. The purpose of the research was to provide a software dependability quantification framework that would allow its evaluation along the software development life cycle for safety critical instrumentation and control systems (I and C) such as those found in nuclear power plants. A typical example of safety critical system is the reactor protection system. The research funded by the Department of Energy built on preliminary research carried out for the US NRC that had focused solely on software reliability quantification. Quantification of software dependability is important for safety critical I and C because the regulatory framework in use in the United States for nuclear power plants is risk informed. Quantification of risk requires quantification of all contributors to risk and those include instrumentation and control systems. The purpose of the study was to help developers of software-based I and C with an early evaluation of the potential risk an application would represent at different stages of the software development life cycle by building gates at the end of each life cycle phase. Life cycle phases of software development comprehend phases such as requirements, design, coding and test. The gates' function would be to stop development from moving forward if the assessed dependability objective for that phase were not met. Gates thresholds were to be defined based on measurements collected during the life cycle phase under evaluation and phases that preceded it and an understanding of the mechanisms that would lead to threatening the dependability objectives. The information contained in the gates would in addition help steer the development towards areas that needed improvement. The following are four high level conclusions to our study. First the study demonstrates a lack of consensus on mechanisms that will threaten the dependability attributes. This lack of consensus should be resolved. The lack of consensus appears for all measures to the exception of reliability. Second, measures should be developed for software availability and safety. Third, for all dependability attributes (with the exception of reliability) consistency of the measurement threads should evaluated and measurement-based development gates derived. Finally our ability to perform such type of research depends in a significant manner on access to vendor and/or utility data. The licensing environment and the first-of-a-kind nature of current software-based applications for nuclear I and C make it difficult to collect the relevant data. An approach which would either increase access to data by providing 'immunity' to the vendor or utility or the development of a software-based I and C for the sole purpose of data collection for research should be investigated. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Toxicology and Biodegradability of Tier Three Gasoline Blendstocks: Literature Review of Available Data

This study provides framework for decision makers to more fully evaluate the toxicology and biodegradability of the tier three gasoline blendstocks developed under Co-Optima. These Co-Optima blendstocks were compared to gasoline surrogate compounds, providing guidance for future consideration as the project progresses. Due to the complexity of the subject area, all compounds were considered only in their pure form, not as complex mixtures with gasoline, which was outside the scope of this study. The metrics applied to the blendstocks were environmental transport and fate, environmental and human health toxicity, and environmental regulatory framework. The blendstocks (cyclopentanone; diisobutylene; 2-methylfuran; 2,5-dimethylfuran; isobutanol; ethanol; and isopropanol) presented limited human toxicity based on the information available. All the blendstocks migrated primarily into air or water, with little mobility between these compartments. Coupled with aerobic and/or anaerobic biodegradability, long term environmental persistence is unlikely, with the only exception being diisobutylene, which was not biodegradable. Additional work should focus on the environmental impact of these blendstocks in complex mixtures, such as gasoline, which will represent more real world scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Dry Cask Risk Tools

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has repeatedly expressed a desire to increase the use of risk in its decision-making. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Policy Statement published in 1995 formalized the Commission’s commitment to risk-informed regulation through the expanded use of PRA. While a great deal of work has been done to incorporate risk insights into the regulatory framework for at-power nuclear reactors. Far less progress has been made to risk inform the dry-casks and nuclear waste transportation areas of the nuclear fuel cycle. INL was tasked with incorporating the information from the two completed dry cask PRAs as well as any additional available information into a tool that helps the NRC use those insights to identify levels of risk at various stages in the nuclear waste cycle. The first task was to address the License Amendment Request (LAR) Process for Dry Cask storage, the second task is for the incorporate transportation into the tool, and the third and final task will be incorporate any additional regulatory applications for dry cask storage. This report covers the first task of the tool and will eventually incorporate the remaining two tasks may be completed in the future and built off the model described here. Task 1 specifically asked to incorporate the risk insights into the process for determining and prioritizing review of license amendment changes related to storage applications by outlining a resource allocation strategy and defining recommendations of for the depth and breadth of the LAR review. It was requested that the tool be similar in design to the SDP notebooks/worksheets and contain quantitative, qualitative, or semi-quantitative approaches to assessing the risk of the change. The final tool that was selected by INL to be developed was a flowchart and associated rationale document that allows the reviewer to quickly assess potential LAR changes and their associated risks as well as the rationale behind the risk categorization. This risk categorization will lead to specific actionable recommendations to expect from a change of that specific category. This allows for a more consistent review process as well as improving the overall efficiency of the review itself.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2019

Panel Session 3: Featured Country Canada: Management and Disposal of High and Low-Level Waste

This panel featured Senior Executives accountable for the safe management and disposal of most of Canada's radioactive waste liabilities and provided their perspectives on current plans and progress made to date. Topics addressed by the panelists included national policies and programs, the regulatory framework, and actions led by the waste generators and solution implementers to ensure Canada's waste legacy is responsibly managed. Presentations proposed include: 1 - Overview of Canadian Radioactive Waste Policy and Long-Term Waste Management Projects (Dave McCauley, Natural Resources Canada (Canada)); 2 - Featured Country: Canada - National Repository (Laurie Swami, Nuclear Waste Management Organization (Canada)); 3 - Management and Disposal of Ontario Power Generation's Low and Intermediate Level Waste (Lise Morton, Ontario Power Generation (Canada)); 4 - Featured Country: Canada - National Laboratories Liabilities (Richard Sexton, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (Canada)); 5 - Management and Disposal of High and Low-Level Waste (Mark Lesinski, Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (Canada)); 6 - Disposal in Canada: The Regulatory Perspective (Ramzi Jammal, Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (Canada))

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Licensing, Regulations and Developing Guidance for Nuclear Technology Deployment for Embarking countries in Africa

The African region is witnessing an increased number of countries at different stages of implementing or considering the introduction of peaceful nuclear power programs to meet the demand of their rapidly growing economies as well as clean energy needs. Grid size, cost, licensing, and regulations will be some of the challenges to deploying larger power reactors. A key element of the regulatory framework will be the inclusion of nuclear security information and assurance that security is integrated into the license review process.As each country continue to implement and consider different reactor designs from several vendors, the significance of customer knowledge of licensing, Regulations, and guidance document to facilitate the deployment and operational needs for nuclear technology cannot be over-emphasized. This special session will bring together a selected panel of key stakeholders and policymakers from embarking countries in Africa to participate in a panel discussion to share their experience in the licensing, regulations, and development of guidance for power plant deployment. The session will also consider and identify potential gaps that may affect the licensing and regulatory applications for the future nuclear infrastructure. As well, the panel will promote regional networking and communication to increase capacities in readiness for the potential deployment of additional technology, such as Small Modular Reactors.

Dahunsi, Stephen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Are Some Technologies Beyond Regulatory Regimes?

Regulatory frameworks are a common tool in governance to incent and coerce behaviors supporting national or strategic stability. This includes domestic regulations and international agreements. Though regulation is always a challenge, the domain of fast evolving threats, like cyber, are proving much more difficult to control. Many discussions are underway searching for approaches that can provide national security in these domains. We use game theoretic learning models to explore the question of strategic stability with respect to the democratization of certain technologies (such as cyber). We suggest that such many-player games could inherently be chaotic with no corresponding (Nash) equilibria. In the absence of such equilibria, traditional approaches, as measures to achieve levels of overall security, may not be suitable approaches to support strategic stability in these domains. Altogether new paradigms may be needed for these issues. At the very least, regulatory regimes that fail to address the basic nature of the technology domains should not be pursued as a default solution, regardless of success in other domains. In addition, the very chaotic nature of these domains may hold the promise of novel approaches to regulation.

chaos↗

DOE OSTI2016

Development of Criteria for Hardware Descripted Language Programmed-Devices for Safety Systems in Nuclear Power Plants in the U.S

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is in the process of developing a regulatory guide (RG) describing a method the staff of the NRC considers acceptable, for use in complying with NRC regulations with respect to the development of hardware description language-programmed device (HPD). Examples include: field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), systems in the power, instrumentation, and control portions of safety systems for nuclear power plants. The regulatory framework that NRC is establishing for nuclear power plants consists of a number of regulations and supporting guidelines applicable to the development of HPD-based safety systems. The NRC issues RGs to describe to the public, methods that the NRC staff considers acceptable for use in implementing specific parts of the agency's regulations; to explain techniques that the NRC staff uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents; and to provide guidance to applicants. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Data Center Impact on Grid Stability: A Coordinated Control Strategy Using Verrus StabiliGrid Architecture

Large data centers, which now represent a significant and growing share of the total U.S. grid load, can inadvertently destabilize the electrical grid when they disconnect simultaneously during brief voltage disturbances. The July 10, 2024, Eastern Interconnection incident, in which a sub-100-millisecond transmission fault triggered the cascading loss of approximately 1,500 MW of data center load, illustrates this vulnerability. While commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) deployed in data centers provide device-level fault ride-through per IEEE 1547, they lack coordination with facility protection logic and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), limiting their effectiveness as grid-stabilizing assets. This report presents the Verrus StabiliGrid architecture, a coordinated control framework that integrates BESS, UPS, and point-of-interconnection (POI) protection settings to enable data centers to ride through both undervoltage and overvoltage grid contingencies without disconnecting. The four-step strategy encompasses: (1) high-resolution power quality monitoring to detect the grid state during events such as undervoltage, overvoltage, underfrequency, and overfrequency; (2) POI protection settings that allow for extended ride-through and grid-connected operation during grid contingencies; (3) grid state-driven autonomous dispatch of assets to improve grid resilience by reducing power draw during undervoltage or absorbing more power during overvoltage events; and (4) coordinated post-recovery dispatch of data center assets to restore firm load to pre-contingency levels. Validated through controller-hardware-in-the-loop (C-HIL) simulations at the National Laboratory of the Rockies, results show grid import restoration to pre-fault levels within 100 milliseconds of voltage recovery. This work advances the ability of data centers to transition from passive, disturbance-sensitive loads to active participants in grid stability, a capability increasingly required by emerging NERC and ERCOT regulatory frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regulatory Considerations in the Development of Radiation-Drug Combinations

Radiation therapy remains a fundamental treatment for patients with cancer. Despite an increasing number of targeted molecular therapies that are US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved for the treatment of patients with metastatic disease, there has been very little progress made in terms of drugs used concurrently with radiation. This article reviews the existing regulatory framework in which cancer drugs may be developed for use in combination with radiation therapy from the perspective of the FDA. To briefly summarize: (1) nonclinical studies are a critical first step to ensure that drugs are safe for use in humans; however, additional nonclinical studies of a drug with radiation may not be required before a clinical trial in combination with radiation as long as the safety profile of the drug has been characterized in humans. The FDA determines the quality of evidence required before studying a drug in combination with radiation on a case-by-case basis. (2) Although often impractical to consider late toxicities during dose-escalation, late adverse events should be captured and taken into consideration when determining the final dose and schedule to take forward during drug development. (3) There are a number of expedited programs for cancer drug development, including accelerated approval, a conditional approval that allows for use of earlier clinical endpoints when the data suggests a clinically meaningful improvement over available therapy. (4) The Agency encourages sponsors to discuss their development plan with the appropriate FDA review division in formal regulatory meetings.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-P-33: Combining Research and Professional Practice in the Clinical Setting: A Medical Physicist Personal Experience

Purpose: To initiate a discussion on the current and evolving role of Medical Physicists based on author’s professional and research experience in patient safety and quality control. Methods: Several professionals of the departments of Medical Physics and Radiation Oncology, chiefly devoted to clinical tasks, began a research program on patient safety and quality control in a framework provided by the implementation of intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT). We performed studies on virtual simulation for IORT, in vivo dosimetry, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), statistical process control (SPC), and receiver operating characteristics of dosimetric equipment. This was done with the support of our research foundation and different grants while continuing with our departmental clinical routine involving about 1600 annual treatments with two linacs and different brachytherapy techniques. Results: We published 5 papers in international journals in the last two years. This author conducted a doctoral research which resulted in a dissertation in 2015. The extra time spent after treatments was essential to succeed. Funding and support achieved via our foundation played a crucial role; but this would have not been possible without punctual external mentoring and partnership. FMEA conclusions were able to be implemented only with staff commitment; however, conclusions concerning equipment cannot be easily communicated to manufacturers. These tasks required extra training in the appropriated methods. Conclusion: Research needed the support of a dedicated foundation, which would have been very difficult to obtain with the sole participation of our departments. FMEA and SPC results may need engagement of staff and manufacturers, respectively, hard to achieve without strong recommendations or even a regulatory framework. All these fields need evolution of Medical Physicists’ roles and additional training. Devotion to both clinical tasks and research could be unfeasible for Medical Physicists in the clinical setting without the appropriate rearrangement of their schedules and tasks. Supported by grants IPT-300000-2010-3 and PI11/01659. ERDF funds and Spanish Government.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Next-Generation Performance-Based Regulation. Volume 1: Introduction - Global Lessons for Success; Volume 2: Primer - Essential Elements of Design and Implementation; Volume 3: Innovative Examples from Around the World

Performance-based regulations (PBRs) provide a regulatory framework to connect goals, targets, and measures to utility performance or executive compensation. Well-designed PBRs provide incentives for utility performance, benefiting consumers and utility owners alike. This report considers the role of both PBRs and more discrete performance incentive mechanisms (PIMs) in 21st century power sector transformation. Innovative technologies are transforming the way electricity is generated, delivered, and consumed. PBRs have the potential to realign utility, investor, and consumer incentives and mitigate emerging challenges to the utility business model, renewable integration, and even cyber security.The goals of PBRs in the form of multi-year rate plans are in many respects the same in terms of providing reasonably priced and reliable service to customers. However, today's technologies have changed, and there is more emphasis on clean energy. Thus, the pathways and the potential outcomes are different than they were in the 20th century when centralized generator stations and large infrastructure additions dominated the utility landscape. Given unprecedented changes underway in the electricity sector, PBRs - by specifying expectations of utility performance and outcomes for consumers, while staying agnostic to the exact means of delivery - constitute a form of prescient regulation that harnesses disruption. PBRs are one tool in a broader toolbox in the transition toward flexible regulatory and market structures that rewards utilities that adapt or evolve in reaction to market and technology change. PBRs and PIMs have great value for the electric industry when designed well and can be applied to many different situations. How exactly PBR mechanisms are most effectively enacted will vary based on the utility ownership model, institutional arrangements, and a variety of other local factors. PBRs should be tailored to the needs and goals of each jurisdiction, and perhaps each utility, to most effectively achieve the needs of a 21st century power grid in that jurisdiction. Presented in three volumes, this report highlights the lessons learned from their evolving history, explores essential elements of their design and implementation as well as considerations for how they may be best applied, and examines leading examples of PBRs from the United Kingdom, New York, Denmark, Mexico, and South Africa. The full report, 'Next-Generation Performance Based Regulation - Emphasizing Utility Performance to Unleash Power Sector Innovation,' published in September 2017, can be accessed at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68512.pdf.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evolving the Design of a Volcanic Monitoring UAS over Several Flight Campaigns

A multi-organization effort has been underway for several years to develop and validate the use of small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for volcanic monitoring. The overall goal is to develop the aircraft, supporting systems, concept of operations, scientific payloads and regulatory framework to allow regular and reliable sampling in challenging and dynamic atmospheric conditions around volcanic summits. Central to this effort has been the development and refinement of the “S2” aircraft, which contains a tightly integrated system consisting of the airframe, avionics, and payload sensors specifically designed to measure atmospheric properties around volcanic plumes. The aircraft has a 3-meter wingspan and can carry a 2.3 kg payload for up to 100 km while operating at altitudes up to 6,000 m. To date, the system has been flown in Costa Rica to sample CO2 gases around Turrialba Volcano (Costa Rica), in Hawaii to assess the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea with several different sensors, and is currently planned for deployment in Alaska for gas sampling and photogrammetry at Makushin Volcano. Before and after each deployment, all aspects of the system and concept of operations (CONOPS) were extensively examined and modified to improve the safety and performance. This has culminated in the upcoming deployment which will fly up to 30 km - beyond visual line of sight for the first time. This expansion of the operational range through additional safety features and redundancy will pave the way for monitoring and accessing areas that were previously very difficult to reach from both a technical and regulatory perspective. These developments can be extended to a variety of missions requiring UAS for atmospheric sampling, specifically ones that would benefit from beyond visual line of sight operations or flights into harsh or difficult atmospheric environments.

UAS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

International Coordination and Cooperation on LunaNet Spectrum

LunaNet is planned to be the network of networks operated by a set of cooperating organizations to provide interoperable Communications, networking, Position, Navigation, and Timing (CPNT) services to users on and around the Moon based on a framework of mutually agreed-upon standards, protocols, frequency bands and interface requirements. LunaNet follows a service-oriented architecture that is agnostic about the types of organizations that provide services, e.g., government, industry, or academia. LunaNet is open, scalable, resilient, secure, and extensible. To achieve these goals, LunaNet Service Providers (LNSP) must coordinate with each other to define and develop the architecture, to plan initial and evolved capabilities, and to operate their networks. One of the central LunaNet tenets is the use of shared spectrum. For example, the Lunar Augmented Navigation Service (LANS) acts like a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) such as the US Global Positioning System (GPS) or European Galileo but the LNSPs’ contributions to LunaNet must use the same frequency band (2483.5 MHz-2500.0 MHz) and transmit the same waveform synchronized by highly accurate clocks so that Users ‘see’ one virtual network and use the same multilateration algorithm to determine their positions. This necessitates a high degree of spectrum coordination. NASA’s Lunar and Human Spaceflight Spectrum Management Team has been actively supporting development of the LunaNet Interoperability Specification (LNIS), soliciting inputs from spectrum policy and planning experts across NASA, ESA and JAXA. Cislunar spectrum use considerations have been studied and adjudicated within the Space Frequency Coordination Group (SFCG) and inform the ongoing discussion of a lunar communication and navigation architecture within the existing radio regulatory framework of the International Telecommunication Union, leading to the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-27). The frequency plan contained in the publicly released draft of the LunaNet Interoperability Specification reflects the initial phase of exploration (roughly to 2030) defining an optimal set of radio frequencies in appropriately allocated services consistent with WRC-23 decisions for use by known or planned CPNT applications, while striving to maximize coexistence and compatibility amongst cislunar systems and other systems within the near-Earth regime (< 2 million km from Earth). Important considerations include: protection of extremely sensitive receive-only radio astronomy systems on the lunar far side, known as the Shielded Zone of the Moon (SZM); compatibility between Direct with Earth (DWE) communications links and links needed to support relay satellites in lunar orbit with their customer systems on orbit or on the lunar surface; compatibility between multiple lunar surface communications systems and capabilities over varied and challenging terrain and distances; as well as ensuring compatibility and interoperability between navigation systems which either leverage Earth-based or in-situ lunar systems. In addition, the lunar CPNT architecture is envisioned to be the basis – with adjustments – of the future Mars CPNT architecture as we expand into the solar system using Interplanetary Networking (IPN). The second phase of lunar spectrum definition will address planned international capabilities for the next decade that will require action at WRC-27 and beyond. This paper will discuss each of these considerations in more depth and how the current LunaNet frequency plan addresses them.

LunaNet↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Wilks’ formula applied to computational tools: A practical discussion and verification

Wilks’ non-parametric approach for setting tolerance limits using order statistics has recently become popular in the nuclear industry. The method allows analysts to predict a desired tolerance limit with some confidence that the estimate is conservative. The style is popular because it is simple and fits well into established regulatory frameworks. An essential analysis of the underlying statistics is presented in this work, including a derivation, analytical and statistical verification, and a broad discussion. Possible impacts of the underlying assumptions for application to computational tools are discussed. An in-depth discussion of the order statistic rank used in Wilks’ formula is provided, including when it might be necessary to use a higher rank estimate.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗