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At least 109 records · Page 6

Regional Inertia Estimation Using Actual Event Measurements: Florida Case

As inverter-based resources’ integration in power grids increases, their uneven distribution across the electrical network leads to the formation of local regions that are weakly coupled to the larger interconnection. This signifies the necessity of regional frequency dynamics investigation and analyzing various inertia metrics. This paper presents a practical methodology for estimating regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) using actual event recordings, which is then used to evaluate regional inertia. Florida (FL) is selected as the region of interest due to its distinct regional frequency dynamics and the rising levels of solar generation. We identify and analyze confirmed events from 2017 to 2024 that occurred in FL. The results indicate that FL contributes about 14% to the total inertia of the US Eastern Interconnection, which approximately matches its share of generation capacity. Results also highlight seasonal fluctuations in energy generation, which play a significant role in influencing inertia and thus the RoCoF levels. This emphasizes the importance of estimating regional inertia to enhance grid operations for a future that focuses on distributed generation.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

Stronger Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Cooling in Near-Coastal Regions Compared to the Open Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) often induce strong mixing in the upper ocean that generates a trail of cooler sea surface temperature (Twake) in their wakes. The Twake can affect TC intensity, so its prediction is important, especially in coastal regions where TCs can make landfall. Coastal Twakes are often more complex than those in the open ocean due to the influences of coastline geometry, highly variable water depth, continental runoff, and shelf processes. Using observational data since 2002, here we show a significantly stronger global mean Twake in coastal regions compared to offshore regions. Temperature stratification is the main driver of stronger coastal Twakes in the North Atlantic and east Pacific. In the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean, the differences between coastal and offshore Twakes are smaller due to compensation between TC forcings and ocean stratification. The north Indian Ocean is unique in the Northern Hemisphere because salinity stratification plays a major role on the spatial distribution of Twake. In the South Pacific Ocean, TC intensity and translation speed are crucial for explaining coastal–offshore Twake differences, while ocean stratification and mixed layer depth are more important for the coastal–offshore Twake differences in the south Indian Ocean. These findings suggest that coastal–offshore differences in ocean stratification need to be properly represented in models in order to capture changes in TC-induced ocean cooling as storms approach landfall. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause considerable damage in coastal regions with dense human populations. Understanding TC–ocean interaction and how it differs between coastal and offshore regions can help predict TC intensity prior to landfall. Sea surface cooling after TC passage is an important proxy for TC–ocean interaction. A global evaluation of coastal TC-induced cooling has not been conducted. Using data covering two decades, we show significantly stronger TC-induced surface cooling in coastal regions compared to offshore regions at the global scale and in all basins except the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The difference is driven mainly by upper-ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and south Indian Ocean, and by TC characteristics in the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study

# 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study The 2017 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected household- and person-level activity and travel pattern information from residents throughout the Puget Sound Regional Council's four-county region in Washington State. It followed the [2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study](https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-puget-sound-travel-study), starting a planned six-year data collection that includes 2019 and 2021. The multiyear program's goal is to maintain an updated source of household travel behavior data that: - Supports modeling and planning needs - Facilitates trend analysis over time - Allows for regular study design updates to integrate evolving data collection methods and emerging travel behaviors and transportation issues. ## Data Collection Agency The Puget Sound Regional Council conducted the study. ## Methodology The 2017 study featured both the design and administration of a one-day household travel diary (approximately 80% of households before data cleaning) and a seven-day smartphone global positioning system (GPS) diary (approximately 20% of households before data cleaning). It combined data collection methods, including smartphone, online, and telephone. The survey design included several stages to recruit and collect data about households, their members, and their travel behaviors during the assigned travel period. ## Survey Records Survey records include a total of 6,254 participants. ## More Information For more information, see the [survey documentation](https://www.nrel.gov/media/docs/libraries/tsdc/zip/tsdc-2017-puget-sound-travel-study-documentation.zip?sfvrsn=45991f2f_1). ## Transportation Data The data set contains a demographic and socioeconomic composition of 6,254 people from 3,285 households in the Puget Sound regional area, as well as detailed information on the travel behavior of each household for a designated 24-hour period. The survey logged over 508 thousand vehicle miles of travel by participants during 52,492 trips. Transportation data are available as zipped files. [Download Winzip](http://www.winzip.com/downwz.htm).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Regional Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks

Abstract Measures of foreshock occurrence are systematically examined using earthquake catalogs for eight regions (Italy, southern California, northern California, Costa Rica, Onshore Japan, Alaska, Turkey, and Greece) after imposing a magnitude ≥3.0 completeness level. Foreshocks are identified using three approaches: a magnitude-dependent space + fixed-time windowing method, a nearest-neighbor clustering method, and a modified magnitude-dependent space + variable-time windowing method. The method with fixed-time windows systematically yields higher counts of foreshocks than the other two clustering methods. We find similar counts of foreshocks across the three methods when the magnitude aperture is equalized by including only earthquakes in the magnitude range M*−2≤ M< M*, in which M* is the mainshock magnitude. For most of the catalogs (excluding Italy and southern California), the measured b-values of the foreshocks of all region-specific mainshocks are lower by 0.1–0.2 than b-values of respective aftershocks. Allowing for variable-time windows results in relatively high probabilities of having at least one foreshock in Italy (∼43%–56%), compared to other regional catalogs. Foreshock probabilities decrease to 14%–41% for regions such as Turkey, Greece, and Costa Rica. Similar trends are found when requiring at least five foreshocks in a sequence to be considered. Estimates of foreshock probabilities for each mainshock are method dependent; however, consistent regional trends exist regardless of method, with regions such as Italy and southern California producing more observable foreshocks than Turkey and Greece. Some regions with relatively high background seismicity have comparatively low probabilities of detectable foreshock activity when using methods that account for variable background, possibly due to depletion of near-failure fault conditions by background activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Missing Regions in Charged Particle Tracks Using a Sparse 3D Convolutional Neural Network

The 2x2 Demonstrator is a prototype detector for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE)'s Near Detector. Both the 2x2 Demonstrator and the Near Detector itself will have inactive regions wherein there is no sensitivity to charge deposition and light signals that arise from charged particle interactions with liquid argon. In the 2x2, these inactive regions are positioned in-between the active detector modules, which introduces the challenge of inferring what charge signals ought to look like in these regions. This study explores the use of a Sparse 3D Convolutional Neural Network (ConvNet) to infer missing regions in charged particle tracks. Hits corresponding to energy depositions are voxelized into a three-dimensional (3D) grid for each track. Inactive regions within the tracks are replaced with a dense, rectangular 3D grid of voxels, ensuring consistent step sizes in X, Y, and Z directions. Voxels in these dense regions are initialized with an energy value of -1, indicating nonphysical energy or charge. The model is trained to predict which voxels should activate as part of the track and which should not, with the goal of eventually inferring the missing charge or energy values in these voxels. Results indicate that the model accurately predicts track voxels within ±1 unit in X, Y, or Z directions and effectively identifies non-track voxels, despite some overprediction. The approach shows promise in prediction of missing track regions with some accuracy.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Structural analysis and functional evaluation of the disordered ß–hexosyltransferase region from Hamamotoa (Sporobolomyces) singularis

Hamamotoa (Sporobolomyces) singularis codes for an industrially important membrane bound ß-hexosyltransferase (BHT), (BglA, UniprotKB: Q564N5) that has applications in the production of natural fibers such as galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS) and natural sugars found in human milk. When heterologously expressed by Komagataella phaffii GS115, BHT is found both membrane bound and soluble secreted into the culture medium. In silico structural predictions and crystal structures support a glycosylated homodimeric enzyme and the presence of an intrinsically disordered region (IDR) with membrane binding potential within its novel N-terminal region (1–110 amino acids). Additional in silico analysis showed that the IDR may not be essential for stable homodimerization. Thus, we performed progressive deletion analyses targeting segments within the suspected disordered region, to determine the N-terminal disorder region’s impact on the ratio of membrane-bound to secreted soluble enzyme and its contribution to enzyme activity. The ratio of the soluble secreted to membrane-bound enzyme shifted from 40% to 53% after the disordered N-terminal region was completely removed, while the specific activity was unaffected. Furthermore, functional analysis of each glycosylation site found within the C-terminal domain revealed reduced total secreted protein activity by 58%–97% in both the presence and absence of the IDR, indicating that glycosylation at all four locations is required by the host for the secretion of active enzyme and independent of the removed disordered N-terminal region. Overall, the data provides evidence that the disordered region only partially influences the secretion and membrane localization of BHT.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating fine-resolution, regional outputs of a variable resolution global climate model

Climate models have been used to study water resources and regional hydrologic responses to climate change, but climate model outputs must be downscaled to provide relevant regional data. However, the accuracy of this regional data is limited by uncertainties across and within downscaling methods, uncertainty across global outputs, and discontinuities at downscaled boundaries. A new alternative to traditional downscaling is a variable resolution model that incorporates fine-resolution regions directly into a coarse-resolution, global climate simulation in order to capture contiguous dynamics across resolution boundaries. In this study, we used the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to generate one-eighth degree (14 km) fine-resolution outputs for the western U.S. and eastern China from 1970-2006. We focus our evaluation on precipitaiton, temperature, snow pack, solar radiation, and wind. We compare the model outputs with remote-sensing-based precipitation data, and both reanalysis and gridded weather station data for precipitation and temperature. VR-CESM generally has a cold bias in winter and a warm bias in summer in the western U.S., which compensate each other to reduce the annual bias. In eastern China, however, the sign of temperature biases are more consistent throughout the year with cold biases in the higher mountains and warm biases throughout most of the rest of the region. Precipitation biases are dependent upon reference data, and show slight overestimation in high mountain regions in both the U.S. and China with respect to gridded weather station data. Simulated snow cover in the western U.S. is reasonable compared to remote sensing data, but snow cover and snow water equivalent have larger biases when compared to reanalysis data. In eastern China there are widespread snow cover biases compared to remote sensing data. VR-CESM underestimates downward shortwave radiation to a greater degree in summer than in winter, and underestimates surface layer windspeed over mountains to a greater degree than in other areas. Comparison between VR-CESM and a coarser simulation (1-degree Beijing Climate Center model) shows reduced precipitation biases in the mountainous regions with finer resolution, indicating the value of variable-resolution modeling for reigonal studies.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗