Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “random sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Emperical Tests of Acceptance Sampling Plans

Acceptance sampling is a quality control procedure applied as an alternative to 100% inspection. A random sample of items is drawn from a lot to determine the fraction of items which have a required quality characteristic. Both the number of items to be inspected and the criterion for determining conformance of the lot to the requirement are given by an appropriate sampling plan with specified risks of Type I and Type II sampling errors. In this paper, we present the results of empirical tests of the accuracy of selected sampling plans reported in the literature. These plans are for measureable quality characteristics which are known have either binomial, exponential, normal, gamma, Weibull, inverse Gaussian, or Poisson distributions. In the main, results support the accepted wisdom that variables acceptance plans are superior to attributes (binomial) acceptance plans, in the sense that these provide comparable protection against risks at reduced sampling cost. For the Gaussian and Weibull plans, however, there are ranges of the shape parameters for which the required sample sizes are in fact larger than the corresponding attributes plans, dramatically so for instances of large skew. Tests further confirm that the published inverse-Gaussian (IG) plan is flawed, as reported by White and Johnson (2011).

White, K. Preston, Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deployment of salt sample extraction system at an engineering-scale electrorefiner

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches for interfacing relevant unit operations with salt analysis to improve the timeliness of sampling-based accountancy measurements. Two technologies under development in support of this goal are a vacuum sampling loop module and a high-throughput pneumatic sample generator module. Compared to traditional point sampling approaches (i.e., dip probes), the vacuum sampling loop facilitates the collection of a larger cross-section of the bulk salt in order to collect more representative samples. The vacuum sampling approach also eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. The pneumatic sample generator module is used to facilitate high-throughput sample analysis to improve the measurement precision of any given analytical technique by averaging out random sampling and measurement errors. In FY21, two methods for integrating these two modules were tested including direct fluidic coupling and coupling using a solid salt transfer mechanism. Solid salt transfer was ultimately selected over fluidic coupling, primarily to enable the transport of samples over longer distances to support automated at-line integration with high-precision techniques (such as microcalorimetry) that cannot withstand the conditions near an electrorefining process. To facilitate rapid solid salt coupling, new mechanisms were developed for rapidly charging and discharging salt sample tubes at the vacuum sampling loop and pneumatic sample generator modules, respectively. While the charging mechanism will be deployed in FY22, the discharge mechanism was tested in FY21 and is described here. The solid salt tube transfer method was deployed at one of Argonne’s engineering-scale electrorefiners to implement at-line high-throughput pneumatic micro-sample generation capabilities. The approach was used to generate precise uranium- and lanthanide-bearing electrorefiner micro-samples with the specific dimensions requested by researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory for use in testing their novel microcalorimeter x-ray techniques. The solid salt transfer mechanism proved not only to be an effective means of integrating the precision sample generator with vacuum sampling, but also improved the performance of the sampler generator. To discharge salt from the sample tubes at the sampler generator, tube segments were inserted directly into the sample generator’s Helmholtz chamber and pressure pulse actuations were used to generate precision molten salt samples directly from the tube segments. The direct insertion of sample tubes into the sample generator enabled rapid loading of the salt and prevented salt from contacting most of the interior surfaces of the sample generator, which eliminated cross-contamination between runs. The vacuum sampling-loop tube charging mechanism will support high-throughput tube sampling operations by employing a dynamic vacuum filling process to fill short charge tubes that are configured to be rapidly connected and disconnected from the loop. The dynamic vacuum sampling operation will be automated, and sample tube handling can be executed with simple overhead actuation. Because the modular sampling approach described here eliminates the need for new high-radiation sample handling capabilities, salt-wetted seals, salt-wetted moving parts, and heated transfer lines outside the electrorefiner, it will address most of the remaining technical challenges for the at-line deployment of high-precision analytical techniques which will enable significant reductions in the time delay for sampling-based high-precision accountancy measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Jimsphere wind and turbulence exceedance statistic

Exceedance statistics of winds and gusts observed over Cape Kennedy with Jimsphere balloon sensors are described. Gust profiles containing positive and negative departures, from smoothed profiles, in the wavelength ranges 100-2500, 100-1900, 100-860, and 100-460 meters were computed from 1578 profiles with four 41 weight digital high pass filters. Extreme values of the square root of gust speed are normally distributed. Monthly and annual exceedance probability distributions of normalized rms gust speeds in three altitude bands (2-7, 6-11, and 9-14 km) are log-normal. The rms gust speeds are largest in the 100-2500 wavelength band between 9 and 14 km in late winter and early spring. A study of monthly and annual exceedance probabilities and the number of occurrences per kilometer of level crossings with positive slope indicates significant variability with season, altitude, and filter configuration. A decile sampling scheme is tested and an optimum approach is suggested for drawing a relatively small random sample that represents the characteristic extreme wind speeds and shears of a large parent population of Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗
NASA NTRS1991

Errors of five-day mean surface wind and temperature conditions due to inadequate sampling

Surface meteorological reports of wind components, wind speed, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature from buoys located in equatorial and midlatitude regions are used in a simulation of random sampling to determine errors of the calculated means due to inadequate sampling. Subsampling the data with several different sample sizes leads to estimates of the accuracy of the subsampled means. The number N of random observations needed to compute mean winds with chosen accuracies of 0.5 (N sub 0.5) and 1.0 (N sub 1,0) m/s and mean air and sea surface temperatures with chosen accuracies of 0.1 (N sub 0.1) and 0.2 (N sub 0.2) C were calculated for each 5-day and 30-day period in the buoy datasets. Mean values of N for the various accuracies and datasets are given. A second-order polynomial relation is established between N and the variability of the data record. This relationship demonstrates that for the same accuracy, N increases as the variability of the data record increases. The relationship is also independent of the data source. Volunteer-observing ship data do not satisfy the recommended minimum number of observations for obtaining 0.5 m/s and 0.2 C accuracy for most locations. The effect of having remotely sensed data is discussed.

Legler, David M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

COBRA:COMPUTED-TOMOGRAPHY BASED RANDOM-FIELD APPROXIMATION

SF-25-115 COBRA (COmputed-tomography Based Random-field Approximation) is a Python application for generating statistically equivalent random fields from CT-scan imagery. It leverages Karhunen–Loève expansions to model microstructural variability, enabling users to: Preprocess CT scans (filtering and Gaussian transformation); Fit covariance kernels fromempirical data; Solve eigenproblems to obtain KL modes; Sample random fields onsistent with fitted statistics; Postprocess samples back into the physical domain.

Hu, Tianchen↗
NASA NTRS1981

Variability of reflectance measurements with sensor altitude and canopy type

Data were acquired on canopies of mature corn planted in 76 cm rows, mature soybeans planted in 96 cm rows with 71 percent soil cover, and mature soybeans planed in 76 cm rows with 100 percent soil cover. A LANDSAT band radiometer with a 15 degree field of view was used at ten altitudes ranging from 0.2 m to 10 m above the canopy. At each altitude, measurements were taken at 15 cm intervals also a 2.0 m transect perpendicular to the crop row direction. Reflectance data were plotted as a function of altitude and horizontal position to verify that the variance of measurements at low altitudes was attributable to row effects which disappear at higher altitudes where the sensor integrate across several rows. The coefficient of variation of reflectance decreased exponentially as the sensor was elevated. Systematic sampling (at odd multiples of 0.5 times the row spacing interval) required fewer measurements than simple random sampling over row crop canopies.

Daughtry, C. S. T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-Supervised Anomaly Detection via Neural Autoregressive Flows with Active Learning

Many self-supervised methods have been proposed with the target of image anomaly detection. These methods often rely on the paradigm of data augmentation with predefined transformations such as flipping, cropping, and rotations. However, it is not straightforward to apply these techniques for non-image data, such as time series or tabular data, while the performance of the existing deep approaches has been under our expectation on tasks beyond images. In this work, we propose a novel active learning (AL) scheme that relied on neural autoregressive flows (NAF) for self-supervised anomaly detection, specifically on small-scale data. Unlike other generative models such as GANs or VAEs, flow-based models allow to explicitly learn the probability density and thus can assign accurate likelihoods to normal data which makes it usable to detect anomalies. The proposed NAF-AL method is achieved by efficiently generating random samples from latent space and transforming them into feature space along with likelihoods via invertible mapping. The samples with lower likelihoods are selected and further checked by outlier detection using Mahalanobis distance. The augmented samples incorporating with normal samples are used for training a better detector so as to approach decision boundaries. Compared with random transformations, NAF-AL can be interpreted as a likelihood-oriented data augmentation that is more efficient and robust. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms existing baselines on multiple time series and tabular datasets, and a real-world application in advanced manufacturing, with significant improvement on anomaly detection accuracy and robustness over the state-of-the-art.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid estimation of photosynthetic leaf traits of tropical plants in diverse environmental conditions using reflectance spectroscopy

Tropical forests are one of the main carbon sinks on Earth, but the magnitude of CO 2 absorbed by tropical vegetation remains uncertain. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are commonly used to estimate the CO 2 absorbed by forests, but their performance is highly sensitive to the parameterization of processes that control leaf-level CO 2 exchange. Direct measurements of leaf respiratory and photosynthetic traits that determine vegetation CO 2 fluxes are critical, but traditional approaches are time-consuming. Reflectance spectroscopy can be a viable alternative for the estimation of these traits and, because data collection is markedly quicker than traditional gas exchange, the approach can enable the rapid assembly of large datasets. However, the application of spectroscopy to estimate photosynthetic traits across a wide range of tropical species, leaf ages and light environments has not been extensively studied. Here, we used leaf reflectance spectroscopy together with partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to estimate leaf respiration ( R dark25 ), the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco ( V cmax25 ), the maximum rate of electron transport ( J max25 ), and the triose phosphate utilization rate ( T p25 ), all normalized to 25°C. We collected data from three tropical forest sites and included leaves from fifty-three species sampled at different leaf phenological stages and different leaf light environments. Our resulting spectra-trait models validated on randomly sampled data showed good predictive performance for V cmax25 , J max25 , T p25 and R dark25 (RMSE of 13, 20, 1.5 and 0.3 μmol m -2 s -1 , and R 2 of 0.74, 0.73, 0.64 and 0.58, respectively). The models showed similar performance when applied to leaves of species not included in the training dataset, illustrating that the approach is robust for capturing the main axes of trait variation in tropical species. We discuss the utility of the spectra-trait and traditional gas exchange approaches for enhancing tropical plant trait studies and improving the parameterization of TBMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of near-terminal aircraft flight paths

The flight paths of arriving and departing aircraft at an airport are stochastically represented. Radar data of the aircraft movements are used to decompose the flight paths into linear and curvilinear segments. Variables which describe the segments are derived, and the best fitting probability distributions of the variables, based on a sample of flight paths, are found. Conversely, given information on the probability distribution of the variables, generation of a random sample of flight paths in a Monte Carlo simulation is discussed. Actual flight paths at Dulles International Airport are analyzed and simulated.

Schiess, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Absolute proper motions to B approximately 22.5: Evidence for kimematical substructure in halo field stars

Radial velocities have been obtained for six of nine stars identified on the basis of similar distances and common, extreme transverse velocities in the proper motion survey of Majewski (1992) as a candidate halo moving group at the north Galactic pole. These radial velocities correspond to velocities perpendicular to the Galactic plane which span the range -48 +/- 21 to -128 +/- 9 km/sec (but a smaller range, -48 +/- 21 to -86 +/- 19 km/sec, when only our own measurements are considered), significantly different than the expected distribution, with mean 0 km/sec, for a random sample of either halo or thick disk stars. The probability of picking such a set of radial velocities at random is less than 1%. Thus the radial velocity data support the hypothesis that these stars constitute part of a halo moving group or star stream at a distance of approximately 4-5 kpc above the Galactic plane. If real, this moving group is evidence for halo phase space substructure which may be the fossil remains of a destroyed globular cluster, Galactic satellite, or Searle & Zinn (1978) 'fragment.'

Majewski, Steven R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

(U) A General-Purpose Code for Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics with MCNP6 for Fixed-Source Problems

Correlated sampling can be used to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies by taking advantage of the negative covariance term in the sandwich formula. Booth first showed how correlated sampling can be applied with batch statistics using MCNP’s tally fluctuation chart (TFC) to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies in fixed-source problems. Booth presented a problem in which a 1273% uncertainty in a difference was reduced to 8% by accounting for correlations. Researchers He and Su recently studied correlated sampling using the TFC in MCNP version 5. They determined that the code did not print enough digits in the TFC tally means for accurate batch statistics in some cases. After modifying the source code, they concluded that “correlated sampling can yield a standard deviation of about one magnitude smaller than that predicted by the direct, un-correlated simulation when the changes in system response are small (say about 1%), which is equivalent to saving in CPU time by a factor of 100. Such saving [sic] becomes less significant as the change in system response becomes larger.” He and Su provided the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a difference of tallies. In this report, we follow up on their work by providing the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a ratio of tallies and of a difference of two tallies divided by a third tally. We extend these formulas to differences and ratios of ratios. These formulas are applied to reduce the uncertainty associated with calculating a relative sensitivity. He and Su did not investigate the accuracy of their correlated sampling uncertainty estimates. We use their test problems and evaluate the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates by comparing with results obtained from random sampling, and, in simple cases, with theoretical values of the “exact” uncertainties. We find that the uncertainties obtained from batch statistics are accurate as long as at least 100 batches are used. We present a new computer code, COSUBS (COrrelated Sampling Using Batch Statistics), that reads MCNP6 TFCs and applies correlated sampling using batch statistics for the tally combinations that the user specifies. COSUBS is a very general tool that compares all TFCs for a base case and one or two perturbed cases. It computes uncertainties for ratios if given only a base case. This report is organized as follows. The equations to apply batch statistics to the difference of random tallies are reviewed in Sec. II. Section III presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a ratio of random tallies; this is useful for computing relative sensitivities using a one-sided finite difference and the relative sensitivity using the differential operator method. Section IV presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two random tallies divided by a third; this is useful for computing a relative sensitivities using a central difference. Section V presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two ratios with four random tallies. Section VI presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a one-sided finite difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses four random tallies). Section VII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a central difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses six random tallies). Section VIII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a sum of random tallies. Section IX discusses how to apply batch statistics using MCNP6. Section X presents COSUBS, describing its command-line options and logic. Sections XI through XVI present numerical results for various test problems. Section XVII is a summary and conclusions. Appendix A derives the theoretical Monte Carlo tally variance given certain assumptions; these variances are used to verify the batch statistics for some of the problems. Appendix B lists the MCNP6 input for the unperturbed example problem. Appendix C presents modifications made to MCNP6.3 to support this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2008

Compositional and Geochronological Constraints on the Lunar Cataclysm from Planetary Samples

Radiometric dating and compositional clustering of lunar impact-melt rocks form the backbone of the lunar cataclysm hypothesis. Precise age determinations of Apollo and Luna impact-melt rocks define the classic formulation of the cataclysm: a large number of samples 3.9 Ga old, a steep decline after 3.9 Ga, and few impact rocks older than ~4.0 Ga. Lunar meteorites more randomly sample the lunar surface, but impact-melt clasts in these rocks show the same apparent age cutoff at 4.0 Ga (though their ages extend approx.500 Myr later). Neither do impact-formed glass spherules and fragments, formed by impacts of all sizes throughout lunar history, predate 4.0 Ga. Geological associations between compositional groups of impact-melt rocks and specific impact basins imply that five large basins formed on the Moon within 200 Myr but a counter-argument postulates they are all products of the Imbrium basin-forming impact; it is not yet proven whether groups of impact melt that are resolvable from each other in age and in trace-element composition represent multiple impacts. The 3.9 Ga age peak and subsequent steep decline are not well mirrored in meteorite data. Radiometric ages in ordinary chondrites and HED meteorites peak around 3.9 Ga but ages older and younger than 3.9 Ga are common. Among Martian meteorites, there is a single impact-related age: ALH 84001 was shocked at 3.92 Ga. Differences in relative impact velocity, impact-melt production, and sampling rate could explain differences between the meteorite and lunar records. One way to anchor the early end of the lunar flux is to directly sample the impact-melt sheet of a large lunar basin distant from Imbrium, such as the South Pole-Aitken basin, where melt rocks probably still resides on the basin floor and could be directly sampled by a human or robotic mission.

Cohen, Barbara A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Data-Driven Deep-Learning Surrogate Model for Frontal Polymerization in Dicyclopentadiene

Frontal polymerization (FP) is a self-sustaining curing process that enables rapid and energy-efficient manufacturing of thermoset polymers and composites. Computational methods conventionally used to simulate the FP process are time-consuming, and repeating simulations are required for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or optimization of the manufacturing process. Here, in this work, we develop an adaptive surrogate deep-learning model for FP of dicyclopentadiene (DCPD), which predicts the evolution of temperature and degree of cure orders of magnitude faster than the finite-element method (FEM). The adaptive algorithm provides a strategy to select training samples efficiently and save computational costs by reducing the redundancy of FEM-based training samples. The adaptive algorithm calculates the residual error of the FP governing equations using automatic differentiation of the deep neural network. A probability density function expressed in terms of the residual error is used to select training samples from the Sobol sequence space. The temperature and degree of cure evolution of each training sample are obtained by a 2D FEM simulation. The adaptive method is more efficient and has a better prediction accuracy than the random sampling method. With the well-trained surrogate neural network, the FP characteristics (front speed, shape, and temperature) can be extracted quickly from the predicted temperature and degree-of-cure fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Milky Way mass with K giants and BHB stars using LAMOST, SDSS/SEGUE, and Gaia : 3D spherical Jeans equation and tracer mass estimator

ABSTRACT We measure the enclosed Milky Way mass profile to Galactocentric distances of ∼70 and ∼50 kpc using the smooth, diffuse stellar halo samples of Bird et al. The samples are Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) and Sloan Digital Sky Survey/Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SDSS/SEGUE) K giants (KG) and SDSS/SEGUE blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars with accurate metallicities. The 3D kinematics are available through LAMOST and SDSS/SEGUE distances and radial velocities and Gaia DR2 proper motions. Two methods are used to estimate the enclosed mass: 3D spherical Jeans equation and Evans et al. tracer mass estimator (TME). We remove substructure via the Xue et al. method based on integrals of motion. We evaluate the uncertainties on our estimates due to random sampling noise, systematic distance errors, the adopted density profile, and non-virialization and non-spherical effects of the halo. The tracer density profile remains a limiting systematic in our mass estimates, although within these limits we find reasonable agreement across the different samples and the methods applied. Out to ∼70 and ∼50 kpc, the Jeans method yields total enclosed masses of 4.3 ± 0.95 (random) ±0.6 (systematic) × 1011 M⊙ and 4.1 ± 1.2 (random) ±0.6 (systematic) × 1011 M⊙ for the KG and BHB stars, respectively. For the KG and BHB samples, we find a dark matter virial mass of $M_{200}=0.55^{+0.15}_{-0.11}$ (random) ±0.083 (systematic) × 1012 M⊙ and $M_{200}=1.00^{+0.67}_{-0.33}$ (random) ±0.15 (systematic) × 1012 M⊙, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Grover-QAOA for 3-SAT: quadratic speedup, fair-sampling, and parameter clustering

Abstract The SAT problem is a prototypical NP-complete problem of fundamental importance in computational complexity theory with many applications in science and engineering; as such, it has long served as an essential benchmark for classical and quantum algorithms. This study shows numerical evidence for a quadratic speedup of the Grover Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (G-QAOA) over random sampling for finding all solutions to 3-SAT (All-SAT) and Max-SAT problems. G-QAOA is less resource-intensive and more adaptable for these problems than Grover’s algorithm, and it surpasses conventional QAOA in its ability to sample all solutions. We show these benefits by classical simulations of many-round G-QAOA on thousands of random 3-SAT instances. We also observe G-QAOA advantages on the IonQ Aria quantum computer for small instances, finding that current hardware suffices to determine and sample all solutions. Interestingly, a single-angle-pair constraint that uses the same pair of angles at each G-QAOA round greatly reduces the classical computational overhead of optimizing the G-QAOA angles while preserving its quadratic speedup. We also find parameter clustering of the angles. The single-angle-pair protocol and parameter clustering significantly reduce obstacles to classical optimization of the G-QAOA angles.

Zhang, Zewen (ORCID:000000032258613X)↗
NASA NTRS1984

Structure of nonevaporating sprays - Measurements and predictions

Structure measurements were completed within the dilute portion of axisymmetric nonevaporating sprays (SMD of 30 and 87 microns) injected into a still air environment, including: mean and fluctuating gas velocities and Reynolds stress using laser-Doppler anemometry; mean liquid fluxes using isokinetic sampling; drop sizes using slide impaction; and drop sizes and velocities using multiflash photography. The new measurements were used to evaluate three representative models of sprays: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of drop interaction with turbulent fluctuations were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, where effects of both interphase slip and turbulent fluctuations were considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for drop motion. The LHF and DSF models were unsatisfactory for present test conditions-both underestimating flow widths and the rate of spread of drops. In contrast, the SSF model provided reasonably accurate predictions, including effects of enhanced spreading rates of sprays due to drop dispersion by turbulence, with all empirical parameters fixed from earlier work.

Solomon, A. S. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling

Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.

power system faults↗