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At least 109 records · Page 6

A Probabilistic Framework for the Validation and Certification of Computer Simulations

The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.

Ghanem, Roger↗

Metal hydride composition-derived parameters as machine learning features for material design and H 2 storage

Though hydrogen is a promising energy carrier for a green future, many challenges persist. One is the difficulty in engineering storage solutions, with metal hydrides being a leading contender among solid-state strategies. To facilitate efficient searching of candidate materials, ridge regression, simple decision trees, random forest ensembles, and gradient boosting ensembles were employed to predict the energy of formation, with the random forest ensemble resulting in the lowest test set error. First, two public databases, Materials Project and HydPark, were searched for metal hydrides. Feature engineering was performed before the models were developed, resulting in electronegativity, density, atomic density, d-character, f-character, band gap, hydrogen weight fraction, magnetization, temperature, and pressure being retained. The models were then benchmarked by the lowest test error before a random forest ensemble was used to populate entries missing energy of formation. Furthermore, all were then scored by hydrogen storage capacity and energy of formation suitability. Readily available features including several derived from only the chemical formula which were found to be highly predictive. and so are promising for high-throughput screening of arbitrary novel hydride formulations and blends for thermodynamic feasibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

C-SAW: a framework for graph sampling and random walk on GPUs

Many applications require to learn, mine, analyze and visualize large-scale graphs. These graphs are often too large to be addressed efficiently using conventional graph processing technologies. Fortunately, recent research efforts find out graph sampling and random walk, which significantly reduce the size of original graphs, can benefit the tasks of learning, mining, analyzing and visualizing large graphs by capturing the desirable graph properties. This paper introduces C-SAW, the first framework that accelerates Sampling and Random Walk framework on GPUs. Particularly, C-SAW makes three contributions: First, our framework provides a generic API which allows users to implement a wide range of sampling and random walk algorithms with ease. Second, offloading this framework on GPU, we introduce warp-centric parallel selection, and two novel optimizations for collision migration. Third, towards supporting graphs that exceed the GPU memory capacity, we introduce efficient data transfer optimizations for out-of-memory and multi-GPU sampling, such as workload-aware scheduling and batched multi-instance sampling. Taken together, our framework constantly outperforms the state of the art projects in addition to the capability of supporting a wide range of sampling and random walk algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Data Science Model for Detecting Intelligent Malware

This study focused on developing a robust artificial intelligence (AI) model capable of detecting and characterizing advanced malware in Internet of Things (IoT) devices using network data. By analyzing network traffic with various machine learning (ML) models, our AI model can identify and characterize malicious activities to significantly improve malware detection accuracy and reliability as compared to traditional methods. The developed AI/ML model was trained using network data from IoT devices, leveraging classifiers such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, and others to optimize detection performance. This project demonstrates a scalable framework for real-time malware detection and characterization in IoT networks, capable of identifying infected devices and facilitating the necessary steps to remove or isolate them, thereby preventing further infections. Although digital twin (DT) integration is not yet implemented in the current model, it represents a promising future enhancement. By creating a virtual replica of physical IoT devices, DT technology would allow for real-time monitoring and analysis without directly accessing operational technology, thus reducing the risk of compromising or reducing the performance of actual devices. This integration would further enhance the security of IoT ecosystems, combining AI technology to better flag and detect indications of malware-infected devices within a nuclear system environment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamical eigenfunction decomposition of turbulent channel flow

The results of an analysis of low-Reynolds-number turbulent channel flow based on the Karhunen-Loeve (K-L) expansion are presented. The turbulent flow field is generated by a direct numerical simulation of the Navier-Stokes equations at a Reynolds number Re(tau) = 80 (based on the wall shear velocity and channel half-width). The K-L procedure is then applied to determine the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions for this flow. The random coefficients of the K-L expansion are subsequently found by projecting the numerical flow field onto these eigenfunctions. The resulting expansion captures 90 percent of the turbulent energy with significantly fewer modes than the original trigonometric expansion. The eigenfunctions, which appear either as rolls or shearing motions, possess viscous boundary layers at the walls and are much richer in harmonics than the original basis functions.

Ball, K. S.↗

Nonlinear analyses of composite aerospace structures in sonic fatigue

The primary research effort of this project is the development of analytical methods for the prediction of nonlinear random response of composite aerospace structures subjected to combined acoustic and thermal loads. The progress, accomplishments, and future plans of three random response research topics are discussed, namely acoustics-structure interactions using boundary/finite element methods, nonlinear vibrations of beams and composite plates under harmonic and random excitations, and numerical simulation of the nonlinear response of composite plates under combined thermal and acoustic loading.

Mei, Chuh↗

Nonlinear analyses of composite aerospace structures in sonic fatigue

This report summarizes the semiannual research progress, accomplishments, and future plans performed under the NASA Langley Research Center Grant No. NAG-1-1358. The primary research effort of this project is the development of analytical methods for the prediction of nonlinear random response of composite aerospace structures subjected to combined acoustic and thermal loads. The progress, accomplishments, and future plates on four sonic fatigue research topics are described. The sonic fatigue design and passive control of random response of shape memory alloy hybrid composites presented in section 4, which is suited especially for HSCT, is a new initiative.

Mei, Chuh↗

Dynamic response of a pulsed Burke-Schumann diffusion flame

Turbulent flames are often envisioned as an ensemble of random vortices interacting with the combustion process. A better understanding of the vortex-flame interactions therefore would be useful in improving the modeling of turbulent diffusion flames. Substantial simplification may be made by investigating controlled interactions in a laminar flame, as opposed to random interactions in a turbulent flame. The general goals of the research project are to improve our understanding of (1) the influence of buoyancy on co-flow diffusion flames and (2) the effects of buoyancy on vortex-flame interactions in co-flow diffusion flames. As a first step toward objective (2), we conducted a joint experimental and numerical investigation of the vortex-flame interaction. Vortices were produced by mechanically pulsing the fuel flow at a low frequency, e.g., 10 Hz. Experiments were conducted using a nonflickering Burke-Schumann flame in both microgravity (mu-g) and normal gravity (1g) as a means of varying the buoyant force without modification of the pressure (i.e., density). The effects of buoyant convection may then be determined by a comparison of the mu-g and 1g results. The mu-g results may also reveal the important mechanisms which are masked or overwhelmed by buoyant convection in 1g. A numerical investigation was conducted using a validated, time-accurate numerical code to study the underlying physics during the flame interaction and to assist the interpretation of the experimental results.

Sheu, Jyh-Cherng↗

Vision Algorithms to Determine Shape and Distance for Manipulation of Unmodeled Objects

This paper discusses the development of a robotic system for general use in an unstructured environment. This is illustrated through pick and place of randomly positioned, un-modeled objects. There are many applications for this project, including rock collection for the Mars Surveyor Program. This system is demonstrated with a Puma560 robot, Barrett hand, Cognex vision system, and Cimetrix simulation and control, all running on a PC. The demonstration consists of two processes: vision system and robotics. The vision system determines the size and location of the unknown objects. The robotics part consists of moving the robot to the object, configuring the hand based on the information from the vision system, then performing the pick/place operation. This work enhances and is a part of the Low Cost Virtual Collaborative Environment which provides remote simulation and control of equipment.

Montes, Leticia↗

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probalistic Finite Elements (PFEM) structural dynamics and fracture mechanics

The purpose of this work is to develop computationally efficient methodologies for assessing the effects of randomness in loads, material properties, and other aspects of a problem by a finite element analysis. The resulting group of methods is called probabilistic finite elements (PFEM). The overall objective of this work is to develop methodologies whereby the lifetime of a component can be predicted, accounting for the variability in the material and geometry of the component, the loads, and other aspects of the environment; and the range of response expected in a particular scenario can be presented to the analyst in addition to the response itself. Emphasis has been placed on methods which are not statistical in character; that is, they do not involve Monte Carlo simulations. The reason for this choice of direction is that Monte Carlo simulations of complex nonlinear response require a tremendous amount of computation. The focus of efforts so far has been on nonlinear structural dynamics. However, in the continuation of this project, emphasis will be shifted to probabilistic fracture mechanics so that the effect of randomness in crack geometry and material properties can be studied interactively with the effect of random load and environment.

Liu, Wing-Kam↗

Quantum entanglement in nuclear fission

Nuclear fission presents a unique example of quantum entanglement in strongly interacting many-body systems. A heavy nucleus can split into hundreds of combinations of two complementary fragments in the fission process. The entanglement of fragment wave functions is persistent even after separation and impacts the partition of particles and energies between fragments. Based on microscopic dynamical calculations of the fission of 240 Pu, this work finds that dynamical quantum entanglement is indispensable in the appearance of sawtooth distributions of average excitation energies of fragments and thus neutron multiplicities, but not in average neutron excess of fragments. Both sawtooth slopes from particle-number projections are found to be steep – a feature which can be alleviated by random fluctuations. The persistent entanglement is mainly due to non-adiabatic dynamics since the final splitting is so fast that the non-localization of wave functions is kept during the separation. These findings may impact the understanding of quantum entanglement more broadly in mesoscopic systems

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Estimation of incomplete multinomial data

Program estimates cell probabilities for data observed to fall in one of two or more categories when exact category cannot be determined. Data are assumed to be randomly incomplete. Estimation minimizes risk of quadratic loss. Program should be useful in projects where multinomial data is analyzed, but where observations are sometimes incomplete. Program is in FORTRAN IV and Assembler for batch execution on CYBER 173.

Credeur, K. R.↗

Galileo spacecraft modal identification using an eigensystem realization algorithm

A modal parameter identification technique referred to as the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) was applied to free-response measurements from the Galileo spacecraft modal survey test. The data were recorded following single-point random excitation of the structure. This work is one phase in a research project coordinated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to compare the performance of various contemporary identification techniques using Galileo data. Principal emphasis is placed on estimating the accuracy of the ERA-identified modal parameters. Various accuracy indicators, such as Modal Amplitude Coherence and Modal Phase Collinearity, are discussed. More than 20 modes of the spacecraft were identified, demonstrating the ability of the ERA method to determine the dynamics of such complex structures using only a few seconds of test data.

Pappa, R. S.↗

The Hubble Space Telescope Medium Deep Survey with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera. 1: Methodology and results on the field near 3C 273

We present results from the Medium Deep Survey (MDS), a Key Project using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Wide Field Camera (WFC) images of random fields have been taken in 'parallel mode' with an effective resolution of 0.2 sec full width at half maximum (FWHM) in the V(F555W) and I(F785LP) filters. The exposures presented here were targeted on a field away from 3C 273, and resulted in approximately 5 hr integration time in each filter. Detailed morphological structure is seen in galaxy images with total integrated magnitudes down to V approximately = 22.5 and I approximately = 21.5. Parameters are estimated that best fit the observed galaxy images, and 143 objects are identified (including 23 stars) in the field to a fainter limiting magnitude of I approximately = 23.5. We outline the extragalactic goals of the HST Medium Deep Survey, summarize our basic data reduction procedures, and present number (magnitude) counts, a color-magnitude diagram for the field, surface brightness profiles for the brighter galaxies, and best-fit half-light radii for the fainter galaxies as a function of apparent magnitude. A median galaxy half-light radius of 0.4 sec is measured, and the distribution of galaxy sizes versus magnitude is presented. We observe an apparent deficit of galaxies with half-light radii between approximately 0.6 sec and 1.5 sec, with respect to standard no-evolution or mild evolution cosmological models. An apparent excess of compact objects (half-light radii approximately 0.1 sec) is also observed with respect to those models. Finally, we find a small excess in the number of faint galaxy pairs and groups with respect to a random low-redshift field sample.

Griffiths, R. E.↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

Current and Projected Future Distribution of Plant Community Types for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Landscape scale maps of plant community distribution at 5 m resolution were developed for southern Seward Peninsula. A Random Forest based environmental niche model was developed using topographic and climate data sets. Models were trained for the 2010-2019 period and applied to develop plant community distributions for contemporary (2010-2019) period. Trained model was applied to project the plant community distributions under future climate. Using downscaled projections for RCP8.5 scenario from five climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3) and multi-model mean, a six member ensemble of plant community distribution were developed for current decade (2010-2019) and for future decades (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059). Contains *.tif and *.sh files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗