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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantitative Analysis of Drugs with Highly Different Concentrations of Pharmaceutical Components Using Spectral Subtraction Techniques

Two simple spectrophotometric methods were developed for determination of empagliflozin and metformin by manipulating their ratio spectra with application on a recently approved pharmaceutical combination, Synjardy® tablets. A spiking technique was used to increase the concentration of empagliflozin after extraction from the tablets to allow its simultaneous determination with metformin. Validation parameters according to ICH guidelines were acceptable over the concentration range of 2–12 μg/mL for both drugs using constant multiplication and spectrum subtraction methods. The optimized methods are suitable for QC labs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative analysis of Raman spectral parameters for carbon fibers: practical considerations and connection to mechanical properties

Although the literature on the Raman spectra of carbon fibers is vast, no consistent, robust predictive relationship between mechanical properties of carbon fibers and spectral parameters exists. This shortcoming is due to the use of numerous fitting functions to evaluate Raman spectra of carbon fibers and the inconsistencies in establishing the best fitting models in a statistically robust fashion. To address this gap, we present a comprehensive work on the Raman spectra of carbon fibers that combines a vast library of experimental data with a robust numerical analysis and a statistical evaluation of a wide range of suggested fitting models. This manuscript begins with a brief review of the commonly applied fitting models. Then, the Raman spectra of 32 commercially available polyacrylonitrile-based carbon fibers collected at excitation wavelengths 532, 633, and 785 nm are presented and the best fit for all fibers is evaluated based on several statistical criteria in conjunction with numerical calculations and physical arguments. The results suggest that high-performance fibers must be fit with at least five peaks, whereas high-tensile modulus fibers are best fit with at least six distinct peaks. Finally, we employ simultaneous fitting of the Raman spectra of specific fibers and wavelengths and demonstrate that strong correlations exist between mechanical properties and the D1 peak position and shape across the range of evaluated mechanical properties. Finally, we suggest straightforward improvements in fitting analysis procedures that can be implemented to increase coherency in the understanding of the underlying carbon fiber microstructure intuited from Raman spectroscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantitative Analysis of Micro-structural Changes in a Bituminous Coal After Exposure to Supercritical CO{sub 2} and Water

High-volatile bituminous coal samples were reacted in deionized water with supercritical CO{sub 2} (ScCO{sub 2}–water) under simulated in situ pressure and temperature conditions (8 MPa and 40 °C) in unconfined stress state for 14 days, in order to characterize potential CO{sub 2}–water–coal reactions. Micro-structural changes were identified pre- and post-experiment using X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) analysis for powdered coal (mineralogical changes), optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) for polished thin sections (surface feature changes) and micro-CT scanning for a small core (porosity and permeability changes). XRD analysis revealed that carbonic acid leaches out mineral matters in coal, including carbonates (calcite) and silicate minerals (albite, illite and kaolinite). Optical microscopy, SEM and CT images confirmed that the interaction of coal with ScCO{sub 2}–water causes an abundance of micro-cracks to open or propagate in unconfined coal samples. Most micro-cracks preferably propagated along maceral–mineral and maceral–maceral interfaces, which demonstrates that the micro-cracking was caused by differential swelling of different coal lithotypes. Wormhole formation was observed in coal caused by mineral dissolution and hydrocarbon mobilization, which significantly increases coal porosity compared with swelling-induced cracking. 3-D pore network models extracted from CT images show that ScCO{sub 2}–water treatment enlarges the pore and throat size, increases the numbers of pores and throats and improves pore network connectivity. Overall, CO{sub 2}–water–coal interactions under unconfined conditions enhance coal porosity, connectivity and permeability, which can be attributed to the combined effect of micro-cracking, mineral dissolution and hydrocarbon mobilization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Qualitative and quantitative analysis of neutron irradiation effects in SiC/SiC composites using X-ray computed tomography

Silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composites are candidate materials for cladding of light water reactor (LWR) fuels. Loss of fission product gas retention due to the formation of microcrack networks is considered a potential failure mechanism for SiC/SiC-cladded fuels. In this work, a variety of SiC/SiC composite tubes were irradiated with and without an LWR-relevant radial heat flux in the High Flux Isotope Reactor, followed by detailed characterization with X-ray computed tomography (XCT). This first set of XCT data for neutron-irradiated samples confirmed that the internal stresses arising from a combination of temperature gradients and irradiation-induced swelling act as the primary driver for cracking. Consequently, while the observed cracking patterns varied depending on the tube architectures, the sharp edges of relatively large pores were found to be the common stress concentrator. These findings are useful to help improve the design and manufacturing of SiC/SiC fuel claddings for reduced failure probability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Most theoretical approaches used in nuclear astrophysics to model the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements incorporate the so-called statistical model in order to describe the excitation and decay properties of atomic nuclei. One of the basic assumptions of this model is the validity of the Brink–Axel hypothesis and the related concept of so-called photon strength functions to describe γ-ray transition probabilities. We present a novel experimental approach that allows for the first time to experimentally determine the photon strength function simultaneously in two independent ways by a unique combination of quasi-monochromatic photon beams and a newly implemented γ–γ coincidence setup. This technique does not assume a priori the validity of the Brink–Axel hypothesis and sets a benchmark in terms of the detection sensitivity for measuring decay properties of photo-excited states below the neutron separation energy. The data for the spherical off-shell nucleus 128 Te were obtained for γ-ray beam-energy settings between 3 MeV and 9 MeV in steps of 130 keV for the lower beam energies and in steps of up to 280 keV for the highest beam settings. We present a quantitative analysis on the consistency of the derived photon strength function with the Brink–Axel hypothesis. The data clearly demonstrate a discrepancy of up to a factor of two between the photon strength functions extracted from the photoabsorption and photon emission process, respectively. In addition, we observe that the photon strength functions are not independent of the excitation energy, as usually assumed. Thus, we conclude, that the Brink–Axel hypothesis is not strictly fulfilled in the excitation-energy region below the neutron separation threshold (S n = 8.78 MeV) for the studied case of 128 Te.

Not Available

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Colorimetric-Luminance Readout for Quantitative Analysis of Fluorescence Signals with a Smartphone CMOS Sensor

Smartphones have shown promise as an enabling technology for portable and distributed point-of-care diagnostic tests. The CMOS camera sensor can be used for detecting optical signals, including fluorescence for applications such as isothermal nucleic acid amplification tests. However, such analysis is typically limited mostly to end point detection of single targets. In this paper, we present a smartphone-based image analysis pipeline that utilizes the CIE xyY (chromaticity-luminance) color space to measure the luminance (in lieu of RGB intensities) of fluorescent signals arising from nucleic acid amplification targets, with a discrimination sensitivity (ratio between the positive to negative signals), which is an order of magnitude more than traditional RGB intensity based analysis. Furthermore, the chromaticity part of the analysis enables reliable multiplexed detection of different targets labeled with spectrally separated fluorophores. We apply this chromaticity-luminance formulation to simultaneously detect Zika and chikungunya viral RNA via end point RT-LAMP (Reverse transcription Loop-Mediated isothermal amplification). We also show real time LAMP detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae samples down to a copy number of 3.5 copies per 10 μL of reaction volume in our smartphone-operated portable LAMP box. Finally, our chromaticity-luminance analysis is readily adaptable to other types of multiplexed fluorescence measurements using a smartphone camera.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗