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At least 109 records · Page 6

Commercial Hypersonic Transportation Market Study

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft↗

Independent Market Study: Commercial Hypersonic Transportation

In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.

hypersonic aircraft↗

NASA DEVELOP’s Approach to Co-Production and Collaborative STEM Engagement

The NASA DEVELOP Program conducts 50-60 projects each year with the goal of bringing the benefits of NASA Earth science to local decision-making challenges. DEVELOP, part of NASA’s Applied Sciences’ Capacity Building Program, connects end users with students, recent graduates, and early and transitioning career professionals through 10-week rapid feasibility studies. These projects are a collaboration between NASA, DEVELOP office host locations (universities and other federal installations), project partners (federal agencies, state and local governments, non-profit and for-profit organizations, and international organizations), and the project teams who conduct them. The projects take place under the guidance of science advisors from NASA, academia, and partner organizations, and introduces communities to new applications of NASA Earth observations data with the desired outcome of informed decision-making. This presentation will highlight the DEVELOP model of co-production and programmatic collaboration, lessons learned in partnering, and evaluation activities that look at the impact of the program’s efforts.

Capacity Building↗

The NASA DEVELOP Model: Multidisciplinary Teams Conduct Interdisciplinary Projects to Produce Transdisciplinary Outcomes

The DEVELOP Program, part of NASA’s Earth Applied Sciences’ Capacity Building Program, conducts 50-70 feasibility studies each year that utilize Earth observations to address local decision-making challenges and help inform action. DEVELOP uses these projects as the mechanism to build skills in its participants and partner organizations to assess and apply satellite data insights to environmental decision-making processes. While organized by thematic focus (ex. water resource management, ecological forecasting, disaster management), projects use a multidisciplinary team approach with teams of students, recent graduates, early career professionals, and transitioning career professionals, bringing different disciplines, life experience, and perspectives to execute projects that have been collaboratively designed with end-user partner organizations (federal agencies, state and local governments, non-profit and for-profit organizations, and international organizations). Projects are interdisciplinary in nature as they integrate methods from multiple disciplines, with a focus on the incorporation of satellite data with other data sources such as socioeconomic and demographic data, in situ measurements, model outputs, and partners’ knowledge, and take place under the guidance of science advisors from NASA, academia, and other partner organizations. The culmination of these multidisciplinary teams working on projects that draw from interdisciplinary methods and approaches, is a transdisciplinary solution for the partner organizations to explore further for potential adoption. This presentation will highlight the DEVELOP model of co-production and collaboration, lessons learned integrating people and project methodologies, and impact assessment activities surrounding the program’s efforts.

Capacity Building↗

A Deeper Dive Into the Meaning and Implications of Interoperability for LunaNet Communications and Navigation Services

As part of planning efforts for cislunar exploration and science missions, space agencies have been collaborating with each other to enable communications, networking, Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems to exchange information and provide services to spacecraft and space systems in transit, in orbit, and on the surface, thus helping each other to achieve their common goals. To achieve commonality and lower cost for mutual benefit, the strategy of interoperability is being adopted to help all the pieces fit together and function smoothly. Interoperability gives cislunar users the ability to operate in a collaborative environment similar to the terrestrial Internet, allowing them to share information, navigate safely despite increasing radio frequency congestion, and follow common processes and procedures for effective joint operations. Unlike prior government-dominated efforts, this ecosystem is expected to include commercial for-profit businesses, non-profit organizations, and academic institutions. Ultimately, the goal is to enable a cislunar ecosystem of service providers and users to contribute and/or utilize infrastructure and capabilities to accomplish mission objectives spanning the full range of human endeavours while supporting a variety of business models. This paper reports on the results of an effort to assist in efforts to frame the development of the international LunaNet architecture by providing a canonical definition of interoperability broad enough to meet these needs, examine architectural and operational implications of the definition, and explore interoperability strategies and tactics for deploying and evolving these services. It describes key systems-of-systems (SoS) (Network-of-Networks) interoperability concepts in the context of sustainment of the ecosystem over time as systems evolve in technologies, standards and Standards Development Organizations, component and subsystem upgrades, and user applications

LunaNet↗

Deeper Dive into Interoperability and Its Implications for LunaNet Communications and Navigation Services

The Artemis program being developed by United States’ (US) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing the capabilities to return humans to the Moon and establish an initial base camp and associated infrastructure with extensive contributions from international and commercial partners. In planning for cislunar exploration and science missions, space agencies are collaborating to enable communications, networking, and Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems—called LunaNet—to exchange information and provide services to cislunar spacecraft and space systems, thus helping each other to achieve their shared goals. To achieve commonality and lower cost for mutual benefit, the strategy of interoperability is being adopted to help fit all the pieces together and function smoothly. Facilitating interoperability should benefit lunar missions by providing the ability to operate in a collaborative environment similar to the terrestrial Internet. Interoperability allows them to share information, navigate safely despite increasing radio frequency congestion, and follow common processes and procedures for effective joint operations. Unlike prior government-dominated efforts, this ecosystem is expected to include and benefit for-profit (commercial) businesses, non-profit organizations, and academic institutions as active stakeholders. Ultimately, the goal is to enable a cislunar ecosystem of service providers and users to contribute to and/or utilize infrastructure and capabilities to achieve mission objectives that span the full range of human endeavors while supporting a variety of business models. This approach enables a Systems of Systems (SoS), such as a Network-of-Networks, to be sustainable in the context of the LunaNet ecosystem as systems evolve over time in technologies, standards, components, and user applications. This paper reports on the results of an effort to help frame the development of the international LunaNet architecture by providing a canonical definition of interoperability broad enough to meet these needs, examining architectural and operational implications of the definition, and exploring interoperability strategies and tactics to deploy and evolve the services proposed for cislunar exploration and science missions.

interoperability↗

A Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning Framework for Economic-Thermal Co-Optimization of Crypto Mining Data Centers: Preprint

The rapid expansion of cryptocurrency mining has created a new class of high-density data centers characterized by extreme thermal flux and high sensitivity to volatile economic markets. Traditional thermal management strategies, typically reliant on rule-based control, maintain static setpoints that fail to account for fluctuating electricity prices and cryptocurrency values - factors critical to mining profitability. To address this, we present a physics-informed reinforcement learning (PIRL) framework for economic-thermal co-optimization in crypto mining data centers. This framework consists of a proximal policy optimization (PPO) agent, a virtual testbed powered by high-fidelity physics-based models, and an interactive frontend dashboard. The PPO agent is trained using the virtual testbed and strict hardware safety limits. This physics-informed approach allows the agent to learn a stochastic policy that dynamically balances mining revenue against operational costs by co-optimizing HVAC cooling setpoints and IT computational hashrate. The simulation results demonstrate that the integrated framework achieved an 8.62% increase in net operational profit compared to traditional baseline strategies while strictly adhering to safety-critical temperature constraints (coolant supply temperature < 32 degrees C). This work provides a scalable template for the deployment of reinforcement learning in mission critical facilities where economic volatility and physical safety must be managed simultaneously.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Proactive Assignment Strategy With Human Choice Models for Boosting Pooled Rideshare Service

This study analyzes various human factors considerations in estimating discounts for pooled rideshare trips. The discounts are utilized in an optimization-based rideshare assignment strategy (proactive strategy) and compared against each other, as well as a heuristic strategy attempting to replicate current real-world pooling rates. Simulations within Austin, Texas and Greenville, South Carolina, reveal the proactive strategy’s ability to increase average vehicle occupancy by 0.23 persons/mile in Austin and 0.52 persons/mile in Greenville. A significant ability to decrease trip rejections and increase profitability is also observed. Finally, the strengths of particular combinations of factors are discussed relative to their effectiveness in each region.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Design and optimization of processes for recovering rare earth elements from end‐of‐life permanent magnets

Recovery of rare earth elements (REEs) from end-of-life (EOL) products represents a strategic opportunity to strengthen the domestic supply chain for rare earth elements. This work presents a superstructure-based optimization framework for finding the most economical processing pathway for different EOL rare earth permanent magnets (REPMs). The framework evaluates state-of-the-art technologies across four processing stages—disassembly, demagnetization, leaching and extraction, and precipitation and calcination—using net present value (NPV) maximization and cost of recovery (COR) minimization objectives. A novel bottom-up costing framework for hydrogen decrepitation is also introduced. Two feedstocks were considered: REPMs from EOL hard disk drives (HDDs), and electric and hybrid electric vehicles (EVs and HEVs). While HDD recycling proved unprofitable due to limited feedstock availability, EVs/HEVs were profitable across a range of parameters and cost estimates. Therefore, our findings suggest that the proposed EOL EV/HEV recycling process may be economical and is worthy of further investigation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Opportunities for Cerium Valorization in the Rare Earth Supply Chain

Rare earth (RE) elements are co-located in ore deposits and must be treated together during the difficult extraction and separation. Cerium is the majority element in most deposits (> 50 %), and the growing need for Nd, Pr and the heavy lanthanides in permanent magnets and other energy transition technologies results in costly stockpiling of cerium oxide which has low demand. Finding new high-value applications for cerium or its compounds is therefore a sought-after goal to improve the profitability of rare earth mining and processing. Here, this contribution will highlight the use of cerium in high-strength aluminum alloys and the preparation of Ce-based permanent magnets as two emerging technologies for high-value products that have potential to stabilize the fluctuating rare earth market, substitute critical materials, support the nascent domestic rare earth industry and provide technologies for the pending green energy transition.

Energy - Conversion, Materials science↗

Combining biotechnology with sustainability: feasibility of bioenergy sorghum in generating high-value bioproducts

Biofuels generated through fermentation of plant-derived lignocellulosic biomass are currently not competitive with fossil fuels. Here, a framework is described for the engineering of valuable coproducts to improve the economic feasibility of biofuel production. To accomplish this goal, the desirable traits of the bioenergy crop Sorghum bicolor are harnessed via modern engineering approaches. A robust analysis is provided to highlight the scientific basis, costs, regulatory challenges, and lucrative nature of coproduct development. Sustainable biofuel production could also have far-reaching societal impacts, especially in the context of our rapidly changing global climate. This perspective suggests that the path to profitable biofuel production is attainable and encourages consideration of similar approaches by the biotechnology industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Spaced out: An economic framework to explore the impacts of PV panel spacing on large-scale farming in Colorado

CONTEXT Agrivoltaic systems co-locate solar technologies with agricultural operations on an integrated plot of land and potentially provide benefits to both energy and agricultural systems. To date, large-scale (>5-MW) agrivoltaic projects in the United States have been limited to grazing and ecovoltaic applications, raising questions about the impact and scalability of agrivoltaic crop systems. Many agrivoltaic designs raise the height of the solar panels to accommodate agricultural practices while keeping energy density high. However, raising the panels results in increased photovoltaic (PV) development costs, which often are higher than the economic returns of crop production underneath the panels. This leads to unfavorable project economics and the need for other agrivoltaic solutions than raising panels. OBJECTIVE To explore other solutions, we perform an initial feasibility analysis for an agrivoltaic solution that can integrate with large-scale farming practices by increasing the row spacing in between panels. Increased PV row spacing is a low-cost approach for scaling agrivoltaics to accommodate crop production and this spacing can be tailored to required crop equipment for different regions. Increasing row spacing will reduce the power density (PV installed per acre), but in areas that are not land limited, these agrivoltaic designs could be economically feasible. Our analysis establishes a framework for a feasibility analysis for where and with what crops spaced out panel agrivoltaic solutions might be economical. METHODS Using a case study for large-scale agriculture crops in Colorado, we establish a framework for wide-row agrivoltaic economic feasibility analysis. We utilized the System Advisor Model to calculate technoeconomic metrics to compare different row spacing solutions and capture tradeoffs of these system designs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We find that, in some circumstances, wider row agrivoltaic solutions that allow for continued mechanized crop production can provide economic benefits over a traditional utility-scale PV system. For most crops examined in this analysis, roughly $\$$200/acre in agricultural profit justified spacing out the panels to at least 31.7 ft. to accommodate agrivoltaic configurations versus PV only configurations. Additionally, opportunities for increased agricultural revenue with agrivoltaic systems allow PV project economics to tolerate a larger range of CAPEX variability while remaining economically viable relative to the PV only configurations. SIGNIFICANCE This framework can be adapted for a wide variety of crops and regions and allows for examination of economically favorable sites for future agrivoltaic systems that utilize different configuration and expand opportunities for agrivoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Unlocking the biofuel power of cover crop in Washington State: Enhancing potential through hydrothermal liquefaction

This study evaluates cover crops in Washington State (WA) as a renewable feedstock for hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), supported by techno-economic (TEA) and life cycle (LCA) analysis. In the Pacific Northwest, fallow land is the common winter practice, generating no income for farmers. Over three years, field trials at two representative sites—Puyallup (cool, wet) and Othello (irrigated, no-till)tested triticale, hairy vetch, crimson clover, winter pea, and fava bean preceding cash crops. Biomass yields, composition, soil impacts, and net revenue were assessed across removal treatments. HTL conversion produced 32–37 wt% biocrude, lower than 48 wt% for sewage sludge, with modeled cradle-to-grave carbon intensities of 26–31 g CO 2 e/MJ and minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) of $\$$6.75–$\$$7.18 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), comparable to other lignocellulosic feedstocks. No significant changes were observed in soil carbon, nitrogen, or subsequent cash crop yields after cover crop removal. Farmer profitability was possible, particularly for triticale and hairy vetch at $\$$60 per dry ton. To address seasonal variability, blending with wastewater sludge was evaluated. All scenarios delivered >70 % carbon intensity reductions relative to fossil fuels, and with Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, MFSPs below $\$$2.5 GGE were achievable. These results demonstrate that cover crops can generate new revenue streams for farmers while serving as a flexible, low-carbon feedstock. Integrating cover crops with waste biomass offers a practical pathway to expand the bioeconomy and support year-round renewable fuel production.

Biofuels↗

Policy impact on economic and environmental sustainability of anaerobic digestion: Industrial case study Insights

This paper thoroughly examines how policy incentives impact the economic and environmental sustainability of anaerobic digestion (AD) systems. It uses techno-economic and life cycle analyses, along with real industry data, to explore the entire AD process—from feedstock acceptance to digestate disposal. It evaluates the effects of various U.S. policy crediting programs on the economic viability of different AD pathways for treating sewage sludge and food waste. Furthermore, tipping fees are identified as the primary driver of profitability, while policy credits play a crucial role in enhancing economic feasibility, particularly for renewable natural gas production. However, future regulatory changes could reshape this economic landscape. All AD pathways are found to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, though economic outcomes are highly sensitive to digestate disposal costs and feedstock tipping fees. Co-digestion with food waste is proposed as a strategy to reduce dependence on policy credits and improve long-term economic stability.

Anaerobic Digestion↗

Process design and techno-economic analysis for bio-based graphite and liquid hydrocarbons production from lignocellulosic biomass

The worldwide demand for graphite, as the main anode material for Li-ion batteries, is expected to double by 2028 since it supports the use of electricity, including transient renewable sources, for energy storage, sustainable mobility, and automation. However, the dependence on non-renewable and external resources jeopardizes the world supply chain. This study explores the technical and economic performance of transforming lignocellulosic biomass into biographite and fuel-grade hydrocarbons through pyrolysis bio-oil upgrading. According to simulation results, the total power demand for the biorefinery reached 10,784 kWh per tonne of biographite, of which 36 % can be supplied by the heat integration network and power plant. Sensitivity and risk analyses were conducted to evaluate the economics, with process yields identified as the most relevant indicators to the minimum selling price (MSP). The analysis revealed a promising cost-competitive range for biographite MSP against fossil-based graphite (medium quality synthetic graphite Chinese market price ~$\$$4.2/kg). Case D, which includes biofuels as a byproduct, presents the best metrics, reaching a MSP of $\$$3.3/kg of anode-grade biographite with a profit margin of 27 %. While including biofuels in the product slate provides the best economic performance, the uncertainty associated with the big capital investment makes its risk 13 % higher to attain an IRR >20 % than the case in which biographite is produced as a standalone product. Overall, this study demonstrates that integrated biorefineries can produce a cost-competitive bio-based anode material for Li-ion batteries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Sustainable recovery of critical metals from spent lithium-ion batteries through gluconic acid-based bioleaching: Techno-economic analysis, life cycle assessment and process optimization

Recycling spent lithium-ion batteries (LIB) could potentially bridge the ever increasing supply and demand gap for critical metals and simultaneously facilitate the management of hazardous battery waste. This study investigated the optimization of gluconic acid-based bioleaching technology through design of experiments (DOE), combined with techno-economic analysis (TEA), and life cycle assessment (LCA) with the aim of maximizing the net present value (NPV) and minimizing global warming impacts of the process. Biolixiviant containing predominantly gluconic acid produced by the genetically engineered (ΔpstS, P 112 :mgdh) Gluconobacter oxydans B58 through fermentation using non-recyclable paper as a growth substrate was used for the LIB leaching. At optimal bioleaching conditions of gluconic acid (160 mM), leaching time (2.5 h), reducing agent FeSO 4 to metal, i.e., cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni) and manganese (Mn), mole ratio (0.88), temperature (55 °C) and pulp density (2.5 %), the leaching efficiency was 87 % 72 %, 94 %, and 88 % for Co, Ni, Mn and lithium (Li), respectively. TEA analysis confirmed that bioleaching plant with an annual black mass processing capacity of 10,000 metric tons and plant life of 30 years would be economically viable with an NPV and profit margin of $136 million and 11 %, respectively. The predicted carbon footprint of gluconic acid-based bioleaching for recovering 1 kg of Co (13.2 kg of CO 2 eq.) is lower compared to that of most state-of-the-art leaching technologies. Moreover, gluconic acid-based bioleaching effectively recovered target metals when tested for different black mass chemistries.

Bioleaching↗

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗