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DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unified, Geometric Framework for Nonequilibrium Protocol Optimization

Controlling thermodynamic cycles to minimize the dissipated heat is a long-standing goal in thermodynamics, and more recently, a central challenge in stochastic thermodynamics for nanoscale systems. Here, we introduce a theoretical and computational framework for optimizing nonequilibrium control protocols that can transform a system between two distributions in a minimally dissipative fashion. These protocols optimally transport a system along paths through the space of probability distributions that minimize the dissipative cost of a transformation. Furthermore, we show that the thermodynamic metric—determined via a linear response approach—can be directly derived from the same objective function that is optimized in the optimal transport problem, thus providing a unified perspective on thermodynamic geometries. As a result, we investigate this unified geometric framework in two model systems and observe that our procedure for optimizing control protocols is robust beyond linear response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Recent advances in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) have provided the capability for exact inference: computing a closed-form probability distribution for a given probabilistic program. In particular, the new language Roulette uses a language oriented programming (LOP) approach, wherein analysts build new programming languages on top of a set of primitives provided by Roulette, which then translates these structures into a weighted model counting problem which can be solved by automated reasoning tools. However, because Roulette provides few convenience features, developing these new languages is challenging even for expert users. We developed a standard library of common probability functions for Roulette with the goal of improved usability. This included approximation of continuous probability density functions using discrete probability mass functions. We demonstrated this approach by modeling a cosmic ray striking a RAM controller. We found that Roulette provides a powerful interface for highly expressive probabilistic programs to be generated. In collaboration with the NNSA Advanced Simulation and Computing program, which resulted in development of a tool called Circulette, we were able to model complex circuits expressed in Verilog using probabilistic programs with an expressivity not previously possible. Our research question that motivated the development of a Roulette standard library was to determine whether non-experts could use a PPL to model relevant problems regarding radiation effects on microelectronics. This standard library improved the expressivity of Roulette by implementing common probability density functions, mathematical operators on distributions, and support for empirical distributions. While Roulette is a powerful modeling language, the untyped, LOP approach makes error messages difficult to understand and requires expert aid. We recommend further research on Roulette, especially with its error messages, to enable improved usability. At the same time, this project demonstrated that for users familiar with Roulette and the LOP approach, Roulette provides powerful new capabilities that can be integrated with other Sandia modeling capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quancorde: Boosting fidelity with Quantum Canary Ordered Diverse Ensembles

On today's noisy imperfect quantum devices, execution fidelity tends to collapse dramatically for most applications beyond a handful of qubits. It is therefore imperative to employ novel techniques that can boost quantum fidelity in new ways. Here, this paper aims to boost quantum fidelity with Clifford canary circuits by proposing Quancorde: Quantum Canary Ordered Diverse Ensembles, a fundamentally newapproach to identifying the correct outcomes of extremely low-fidelity quantum applications. It is based on the key idea of diversity in quantum devices - variations in noise sources, make each (portion of a) device unique, and therefore, their impact on an application's fidelity, also unique. Quancorde utilizes Clifford canary circuits (which are classically simulable, but also resemble the target application structure and thus suffer similar structural noise impact) to order a diverse ensemble of devices or qubits/mappings approximately along the direction of increasing fidelity of the target application. Quancorde then estimates the correlation of the ensemble-wide probabilities of each output string of the application, with the canary ensemble ordering, and uses this correlation to weight the application's noisy probability distribution. The correct application outcomes are expected to have higher correlation with the canary ensemble order, and thus their probabilities are boosted in this process. Doing so, Quancorde improves the fidelity of evaluated quantum applications by a mean of 8.9x/4.2x (wrt. different baselines) and up to a maximum of 34x.

clifford↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of the incompressibility, skewness and kurtosis of nuclear matter from empirical pressures in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Within the Bayesian statistical framework we infer the incompressibility K 0 , skewness J 0 and kurtosis Z 0 parameters of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) at its saturation density ρ 0 using the constraining bands on the pressure in cold SNM in the density range of 1.3ρ 0 to 4.5ρ 0 from transport model analyses of kaon production and nuclear collective flow in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. As the default option assuming the K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 have Gaussian prior probability distribution functions (PDFs) with the means and variances of 235±30, -200±200 and -146±1728 MeV, their posterior most probable values are narrowed down to 192$^{+12}_{-16}$ MeV, -180$^{+100}_{-110}$ MeV and ${\mathrm{200}}_{-250}^{+250}$ at 68% confidence level, respectively. The results are largely independent of the prior PDFs of J 0 and Z 0 used. However, if one adopts the strong belief that the incompressibility K 0 has a uniform prior PDF within its absolute boundary of 220–260 MeV as one can find easily in the literature, the posterior most probable values of K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 shift to ${K}_{0}=22{0}_{-0}^{+6}$ MeV, ${J}_{0}=-39{0}_{-70}^{+60}$ MeV and ${Z}_{0}=60{0}_{-200}^{+200}$ MeV, respectively. While the posterior PDFs of the SNM EOS parameters depend somewhat on the prior PDF of K 0 used, the results from using different prior PDFs are qualitatively consistent. The uncertainties of all three parameters are significantly reduced especially for the J 0 and Z 0 parameters compared to their current values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structural Aspects of Neutron Survival Probabilities

The neutron survival probability (and related quantities including probabilities of extinction and initiation) is a central element of the broader stochastic theory of neutron populations and finds application in fields including reactor start-up, analysis of reactor power bursts and criticality accidents, and safeguards. In a full neutron transport formulation, the equation governing the single-neutron survival probability is a backward or adjoint-like integro-partial differential equation with the added complexity of being highly nonlinear. Analogous formulations of this equation exist in the context of many approximate theories of neutron transport, with the point kinetics formulation having received significant theoretical attention since the 1940s. This work continues this tradition by providing a novel analysis of the single-neutron survival probability equation using the tools of boundary layer theory. The analysis reveals that the “fully dynamic” solution of the single-neutron survival probability equation—and some key probability distributions derived from it—may be cast as a singular perturbation around the underlying quasi-static single-neutron probability of initiation. In this perturbation solution, the expansion parameter is the ratio of the neutron generation time to a macroscopic time scale characterizing the overall system evolution; this interpretation illuminates some of the fundamental structural aspects of neutron survival phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation

Fragility curves provide the vulnerability between hazard intensity and an asset. Federal installations may include many different electricity and water infrastructure types (or assets) such as generators, wind turbines, solar PV, switch yards, substations and power lines as well as water distribution systems that could be affected by different hazards. The vulnerability of each asset is a function of its age, type of materials and maintenance. In addition, the vulnerability changes with the hazards intensity and has a probability distribution function associated with it. The fragility functions are used in conjunction with hazard probability and consequence valuations to determine the values at risk for examination of investment grade analyses of alternative mitigation strategies. This document provides examples of fragility functions and links to their sources for different electricity and water infrastructure assets by hazard type.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatial analysis of cell patterning to aid genetic and phenotypic understanding of grass stomatal density: A case study in maize

Biological processes involve complex hierarchies where composite traits result from multiple component traits. However, holistically understanding of how sets of component traits interact to underpin genotype-to-phenotype relationships is generally lacking. Stomatal density (SD) is a tractable model system for exploring how high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data could be exploited by a new spatial analysis approach to better understand a developmentally and functionally important trait. SD is a composite trait, resulting from various components related to cell identity and size, which are themselves governed by a series of spatio-developmental processes. Data from 192 recombinant inbred lines of maize [Zea mays (L.)] were analyzed by a new stomatal patterning phenotype (SPP) to (1) describe the average spatial probability distribution of the nearest neighboring stomata; (2) derive a core set of component traits related to cell size, cell packing, and positional probabilities; (3) build a structural equation model of component traits underlying SD; and (4) identify stomatal patterning quantitative trait loci (QTL). The core set of SPP-derived traits explained 74% of the variation in SD. Analyzing SPP component traits allowed some loci previously identified as generic SD QTL to be recognized as specific to lateral versus longitudinal elements of stomatal patterning. Therefore, this study highlights how novel insights can be gained by decomposing a composite trait (e.g., SD) into a set of component traits that were present in HTP data but not previously exploited.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

CIRCLEZ : Reliable photometric redshifts for active galactic nuclei computed solely using photometry from Legacy Survey Imaging for DESI

Photometric redshifts for galaxies hosting an accreting supermassive black hole in their center, known as active galactic nuclei (AGNs), are notoriously challenging. At present, they are most optimally computed via spectral energy distribution (SED) fittings, assuming that deep photometry for many wavelengths is available. However, for AGNs detected from all-sky surveys, the photometry is limited and provided by a range of instruments and studies. This makes the task of homogenizing the data challenging, presenting a dramatic drawback for the millions of AGNs that wide surveys such as SRG/eROSITA are poised to detect. This work aims to compute reliable photometric redshifts for X-ray-detected AGNs using only one dataset that covers a large area: the tenth data release of the Imaging Legacy Survey (LS10) for DESI. LS10 provides deep grizW1-W4 forced photometry within various apertures over the footprint of the eROSITA-DE survey, which avoids issues related to the cross-calibration of surveys. We present the results from CIRCLEZ, a machine-learning algorithm based on a fully connected neural network. CIRCLEZ is built on a training sample of 14 000 X-ray-detected AGNs and utilizes multi-aperture photometry, mapping the light distribution of the sources. The accuracy (σNMAD) and the fraction of outliers (η) reached in a test sample of 2913 AGNs are equal to 0.067 and 11.6%, respectively. The results are comparable to (or even better than) what was previously obtained for the same field, but with much less effort in this instance. We further tested the stability of the results by computing the photometric redshifts for the sources detected in CSC2 and Chandra-COSMOS Legacy, reaching a comparable accuracy as in eFEDS when limiting the magnitude of the counterparts to the depth of LS10. The method can be applied to fainter samples of AGNs using deeper optical data from future surveys (for example, LSST, Euclid), granting LS10-like information on the light distribution beyond the morphological type. Along with this paper, we have released an updated version of the photometric redshifts (including errors and probability distribution functions) for eROSITA/eFEDS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Single-Molecule Kinetics of Styrene Hydrogenation on Silica-Supported Vanadium: The Role of Disorder for Single-Atom Catalysts

We report a theoretical approach for the study of supported atom catalysis is developed based on recent advances in the study of single-molecule kinetics. This view is particularly useful in exhibiting the role of disorder in single-atom and single-site catalysts on amorphous supports. The distribution of passage times (or waiting times) through a complex catalytic network originating from a set of coupled active sites is described by a probability distribution function (PDF), f(t), that reflects the local environment of the reaction center. An efficient algorithm is developed based on the linear algebra of the Markov transition matrix that produces f(t) or its moments. The kinetics of the hydrogenation reaction of styrene on an organovanadium(III) catalyst supported on amorphous silica is studied. A kinetic model consisting of three intertwined catalytic cycles emanating from three chemically distinct active sites is proposed to describe the chemistry. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations are employed to determine the free energy barriers of the reactions, which are used to construct the rate coefficient matrix. The disorder induced by the amorphous support material is divided into a low-dimensional short-range component reflecting the covalent structures near the reaction center and a weaker long-range component modeling the bulk randomness. The results are computed and analyzed for a wide range of concentration values and disorder scenarios. The unusual structure in the f(t) PDF is found to occur for certain cases that reveal the contribution of multiple catalytic pathways acting in concert.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven network optimisation approach to coordinated control of distributed photovoltaic systems and smart buildings in distribution systems

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources, including demand-side resources and distributed photovoltaics (PVs), into distribution systems has resulted in more complicated power system operation. A data-driven network optimisation approach is proposed to coordinate the control of distributed PVs and smart buildings in distribution networks considering the uncertainties of solar power, outdoor temperature and heat gain associated with building thermal dynamics. These uncertain parameters have a significant impact on the operation and control of distributed PVs and smart buildings, bringing challenges to the distribution system operation. In the proposed data-driven distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) approach, the Wasserstein ball is used to construct an ambiguity set for the uncertain parameters, which does not require the probability distributions to be known. Furthermore, a conditional value-at-risk is incorporated into the Wasserstein-based DRO model and converted into a computationally tractable mixed-integer convex optimisation problem. Benchmarked with robust optimisation and chance-constrained programming, the proposed data-driven model can give a less conservative robust solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Entropy-Based Test and Development Framework for Uncertainty Modeling in Level-Set Visualizations

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly influences the memory use, run time, and accuracy of an uncertainty visualization algorithm. We use an entropy calculation directly on ensemble data to establish an expected result and then compare the entropy from various probability models, including uniform, Gaussian, histogram, and quantile models. Our results verify that models matching the distribution of the ensemble indeed match the entropy. We further show that fewer bins in nonparametric histogram models are more effective whereas large numbers of bins in quantile models approach data accuracy.

Sisneros, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2024

Correlation function distributions for O ( N ) lattice field theories in the disordered phase

Numerical computations in strongly interacting quantum field theories are often performed using Monte Carlo sampling methods. A key task in these calculations is to estimate the value of a given physical quantity from the distribution of stochastic samples that are generated using the Monte Carlo method. Typically, the sample mean and sample variance are used to define the expectation values and uncertainties of computed quantities. However, the Monte Carlo sample distribution contains more information than these basic properties, and it is useful to investigate it more generally. In this work, the exact form of the probability distributions of two-point correlation functions at zero momentum in O ( N ) lattice field theories in the disordered phase and in infinite volume are determined. These distributions allow for a robust investigation of the efficacy of the Monte Carlo sampling procedure and are shown also to allow for improved estimators of the target physical quantity to be constructed. The theoretical expectations are shown to agree with numerical calculations in the O ( 2 ) model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distribution of centrality measures on undirected random networks via the cavity method

The Katz centrality of a node in a complex network is a measure of the node’s importance as far as the flow of information across the network is concerned. For ensembles of locally tree-like undirected random graphs, this observable is a random variable. Its full probability distribution is of interest but difficult to handle analytically because of its “global” character and its definition in terms of a matrix inverse. Leveraging a fast Gaussian Belief Propagation-Cavity algorithm to solve linear systems on tree-like structures, we show that i) the Katz centrality of a single instance can be computed recursively in a very fast way, and ii) the probability P ( K ) that a random node in the ensemble of undirected random graphs has centrality K satisfies a set of recursive distributional equations, which can be analytically characterized and efficiently solved using a population dynamics algorithm. We test our solution on ensembles of Erdős-Rényi and Scale Free networks in the locally tree-like regime, with excellent agreement. The analytical distribution of centrality for the configuration model conditioned on the degree of each node can be employed as a benchmark to identify nodes of empirical networks with over- and underexpressed centrality relative to a null baseline. We also provide an approximate formula based on a rank- 1 projection that works well if the network is not too sparse, and we argue that an extension of our method could be efficiently extended to tackle analytical distributions of other centrality measures such as PageRank for directed networks in a transparent and user-friendly way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

A New Hybrid Mass-Flux/High-Order Turbulence Closure for Ocean Vertical Mixing

While various parameterizations of vertical turbulent fluxes at different levels of complexity have been proposed, each has its own limitations. For example, simple first-order closure schemes such as the K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) lack energetic constraints; two-equation models $k-ε$ like directly solve an equation for the turbulent kinetic energy but do not account for non-diffusive fluxes, and high-order closures that include the high-order transport terms are computationally expensive. To address these, we extend the Assumed-Distribution Higher-Order Closure (ADC) framework originally proposed for the atmospheric boundary layer and apply it to the ocean surface boundary layer. By assuming a probability distribution function relationship between the vertical velocity and tracers, all second-order and higher-order moments are exactly constructed and turbulence closure is achieved in the ADC scheme. In addition, this ADC parameterization has full energetic constraints and includes non-diffusive fluxes without the computational cost of a full higher-order closure scheme. We have tested the ADC scheme against a combination of large eddy simulation (LES), KPP, and $k-ε$ for surface buoyancy-driven convective mixing and found that the ADC scheme is robust with different vertical resolutions and compares well to the LES results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗