Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “probability and statistical methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Establishing temperature from radiance of dynamically compressed metals

Precise temperature determination is a significant challenge in extreme environments of dynamic compression studies. How can radiance measurements taken in high-pressure shock experiments constrain temperature in a meaningful and physically consistent way? Experiments maintaining sample compression against a transparent window can be tailored to present a uniform measurement area with uncertain spectral emissivity. We compare several methods to analyze radiance collected at multiple wavelengths, applying statistical methods and physical principles to improve temperature inference. With proper radiance collection and analysis, dynamic temperature uncertainties become comparable to thermomechanical ambiguities of the emitting surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts with satellite measurements of sea surface salinity and calibrated machine learning

Forecasting rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TC) is a mission known for large errors. One under-researched factor that affects TC intensification is salinity, which is important for density stratification in certain ocean regions and can affect the surface enthalpy flux under a strengthening hurricane. To investigate the impact and efficacy of using salinity information in state-of-the-art forecasting, we use a statistical model consisting of a variety of machine learning (ML) methods. For salinity data, we use satellite measurements of pre-storm sea surface salinity (SSS) as a proxy for the salinity stratification. We train and test the model on various ocean basins, including the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and western North Pacific. A calibrator is trained on top of the ML models to correct and enhance probability forecasts. The calibrator significantly improves probability forecasts relative to recent works. The ML model performance is improved with the addition of SSS in the Eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and the Caribbean subregion of the North Atlantic, and the overall model performance is better than previous studies. SSS decreases model skill for a model trained on the full Atlantic basin. In the Indian Ocean, SSS is also notably correlated with RI occurrence, but the TC samples are not sufficient to train ML models.

hurricane↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraints from isoscaling on the source size in energetic heavy ion collisions

In the framework of the statistical multifragmentation model, the nuclear isoscaling analysis is extended to constrain the ratio between the sizes of the decaying sources formed in a collision between two heavy ions. It is found that the ratio between the probabilities of observing n fragments in each event, for each of the sources, follows a scaling law, similar to the traditional nuclear isoscaling. However, the corresponding slope is sensitive to the source sizes. This property is explained analytically using the grand-canonical ensemble. Furthermore, the extent to which our findings are affected by finite size effects and by the deexcitation of the hot primary fragments is investigated. The scaling turns out to be robust and weakly affected by effects implied by these two aspects. We also find that the Poisson distribution is a fairly good approximation to the above mentioned probabilities, associated with both the primordial fragments, produced at the breakup stage, and the final ones, found at the end of the fragment deexcitation process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method

The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. Here, the objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Buried Object Brightness and Visibility for Ground Penetrating Radar

Comparing the observed brightness of various buried objects is a straightforward way to characterize the performance of a ground penetrating radar (GPR) system. However, a limitation arises. A simple comparison of buried object brightness values does not disentangle the effects of the GPR system itself from the system's operating environment and the objects being observed. Therefore, with brightness values exhibiting an unknown synthesis of systemic, environmental, and object factors, GPR system analysis becomes a convoluted affair. In this work, we use an experimentally collected dataset of over 25,000 object observations from five different multistatic radar arrays to develop models of buried object brightness and control for these various effects. Additionally, our modeling efforts provide a means for quantifying the relative brightness of GPR systems, the objects they detect, and the physical properties of those objects that influence observed brightness. To evaluate the models' performance on new object observations, we repeatedly simulate fitting them to half the dataset and predicting the observed brightness values of the unseen half. In addition, we introduce a method for estimating the probability that individual observations constitute a visible object, which aids in failure analysis, performance characterization, and dataset cleaning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examination of probability distribution of mixture fraction in LES/FDF modelling of a turbulent partially premixed jet flame

An accurate prediction of the probability density function (PDF) of the mixture fraction is crucial to the prediction of combustion since mixing plays an important role in turbulent non-premixed and partially premixed flames. This work provides an assessment of the large-eddy simulation (LES)/filtered density function (FDF) method for the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction. The advantage of the LES/FDF method is that it provides the full predictions of the statistical distribution of scalars including the mixture fraction. The predictive accuracy of the method for the PDF is yet to be fully validated. Assessing the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction, a conserved scalar, is an important starting point. The Sydney/Sandia inhomogeneous inlet jet flame is used as a test case. A quick comparison shows that the LES/FDF predicted PDF shapes of the mixture fraction deviate significantly from the commonly presumed Beta-PDF as well as from the experimental data in the flame. Here, to examine the source of the discrepancy, we clarify the different PDF definitions used in the comparison among the predictions, measurements, and the presumed shape PDFs. The discrepancy observed from the comparison is largely reconciled by clarifying the difference between the PDFs that are examined. The PDF of the resolved mixture fraction is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF in both the measurements and predictions, while the PDF directly deduced from the LES/FDF particles deviates significantly from the Beta-PDF. A multimodal PDF analysis and a pseudo convergence analysis are conducted to provide plausible evidence to support the predicted multimodal PDF shapes. The sub-filter scale FDF is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF too through the construction of a synthesized PDF, which supports the common presumed Beta-PDF assumption used in the presumed PDF methods when combined with LES.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMB-PAInT: An inpainting tool for the cosmic microwave background

Abstract The presence of astrophysical emissions in microwave observations forces us to perform component separation to extract the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) signal. However, even in the most optimistic cases, there are still strongly contaminated regions, such as the Galactic plane or those with emission from extragalactic point sources, which require the use of a mask. Since many CMB analyses, especially the ones working in harmonic space, need the whole sky map, it is crucial to develop a reliable inpainting algorithm that replaces the values of the excluded pixels by others statistically compatible with the rest of the sky. This is especially important when working withQandUsky maps in order to obtainE- andB-mode maps which are free fromE-to-Bleakage. In this work we study a method based on Gaussian Constrained Realizations (GCR), that can deal with both intensity and polarization. Several tests have been performed to asses the validation of the method, including the study of the one-dimensional probability distribution function (1-PDF),E- andB-mode map reconstruction, and power spectra estimation. We have considered two scenarios for the input simulation: one case with only CMB signal and a second one including also Planck PR4 semi-realistic noise. Even if we are limited to low resolution maps, N side = 64 ifT,QandUare considered, we believe that this is a useful approach to be applied to future missions such as LiteBIRD, where the target are the largest scales.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods to Evaluate Subcolumn Profiles Based on Two-Point Diagnostics

In atmospheric models, stochastic generation of subgrid-scale profiles or “subcolumns” has been used for a variety of purposes. Such subcolumns can be generated from subgrid probability density functions (PDFs) at different vertical levels, when such PDFs are available. To do so, the generator needs to decide how strongly points should be correlated in the vertical, that is, how much the values should be overlapped. This is sometimes called “PDF overlap.” To assess vertical correlation in a simplified, observable setting, here the vertical correlation of vertical velocity in subcloud layers is examined. Doppler lidar is used to evaluate the vertical profiles of vertical velocity produced by a large-eddy simulation (LES) model and the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) subcolumn generator. In order to diagnose unrealistic features in subcolumn profiles, various statistical diagnostics are examined here, including the bivariate PDF of vertical velocity at two separated points (i.e., altitudes), the two-point velocity correlation, the integral correlation length, the PDF of two-point velocity differences, and the skewness and kurtosis of two-point velocity differences. The profiles produced by LES match lidar well, except that they are too smooth at small scales. The profiles produced by SILHS exhibit sharp jumps from updraft to downdraft that are not observed in the lidar data. To reduce the generation of these unrealistically sharp jumps, the SILHS sampling method is revised. The diagnostics confirm that the revised sampling method reduces the overprediction of sharp jumps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using kernel-based statistical distance to study the dynamics of charged particle beams in particle-based simulation codes

Measures of discrepancy between probability distributions (statistical distance) are widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning. We describe how certain measures of statistical distance can be implemented as numerical diagnostics for simulations involving charged-particle beams. Related measures of statistical dependence are also described. The resulting diagnostics provide sensitive measures of dynamical processes important for beams in nonlinear or high-intensity systems, which are otherwise difficult to characterize. Here, the focus is on kernel-based methods such as maximum mean discrepancy, which have a well-developed mathematical foundation and reasonable computational complexity. Several benchmark problems and examples involving intense beams are discussed. While the focus is on charged-particle beams, these methods may also be applied to other many-body systems such as plasmas or gravitational systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistics of Green's functions on a disordered Cayley tree and the validity of forward scattering approximation

The accuracy of the forward scattering approximation for two-point Green's functions of the Anderson localization model on the Cayley tree is studied. A relationship between the moments of the Green's function and the largest eigenvalue of the linearized transfer-matrix equation is proved in the framework of the supersymmetric functional-integral method. The new large-disorder approximation for this eigenvalue is derived and its accuracy is established. Using this approximation the probability distribution of the two-point Green's function is found and compared with that in the forward scattering approximation (FSA). It is shown that FSA overestimates the role of resonances and thus the probability for the Green's function to be significantly larger than its typical value. The error of FSA increases with increasing the distance between points in a two-point Green's function.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

An algorithm to locate the centers of baryon acoustic oscillations

The cosmic structure formed from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in the early universe is imprinted in the galaxy distribution observable in large-scale surveys and is used as a standard ruler in contemporary cosmology. Typically, BAOs are detected as a preferential length scale in two-point statistics, which gives little information about the location of the BAO structures in real space. The aim of the algorithm described in this paper is to find probable centers of BAOs in the cosmic matter distribution. The algorithm convolves the three-dimensional distribution of matter density with a spherical shell kernel of variable radius placed at different locations. The locations that correspond to the highest values of the convolution correspond to the probable centers of BAOs. This method is realized in an open-source, computationally efficient algorithm. Here, we describe the algorithm and present the results of applying it to the SDSS DR9 CMASS survey and associated mock catalogs. A detailed performance study demonstrates the ability of the algorithm to locate BAO centers and in doing so presents a novel detection of the BAO scale in galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of non-gaussian quantum fluctuations in neutrino entanglement

The flavor evolution of neutrinos in environments with large neutrino number densities is an open problem at the nexus of astrophysics and neutrino flavor physics. Among the many unanswered questions pertaining to this problem, it remains to be determined whether neutrino-neutrino coherent scattering can give rise to nontrivial quantum entanglement among neutrinos, and whether this can affect the flavor evolution in a meaningful way. To gain further insight into this question, here we study a simple system of two interacting neutrino beams, and obtain the exact phase-space explored by this system using the Husimi quasi-probability distribution. We observe that the entanglement induced by the coupling leads to strong delocalization in phase-space with largely non-Gaussian quantum fluctuations. The link between the neutrino entanglement and quantum fluctuations is illustrated using the one- and two-neutrino entropy. In addition, we propose an approximate phase-space method to describe the interacting neutrinos problem, where the exact evolution is replaced by a set of independent mean-field evolutions with a statistical sampling of the initial conditions. The phase-space approach provides a simple and accurate method to describe the gross features of the neutrino entanglement problem. Applications are shown using time-independent and time-dependent Hamiltonians in the non-adiabatic regime.

Patwardhan, Amol↗
DOE OSTI2025

Breaking the curse of dimensionality: Solving configurational integrals for crystalline solids by tensor networks

Accurately evaluating configurational integrals for dense solids remains a central and difficult challenge in the statistical mechanics of condensed systems. Here, we present a tensor network approach that reformulates the high-dimensional configurational integral for identical-particle crystals into a sequence of computationally efficient summations. We represent the integrand as a high-dimensional tensor and apply tensor-train (TT) decomposition together with a custom TT-cross interpolation. This approach circumvents the need to explicitly construct the full tensor. We introduce tailored rank-1 and rank-2 schemes optimized for sharply peaked Boltzmann probability densities, typical for identical-particle crystals. When applied to the calculation of internal energy and pressure-temperature curves for crystalline Cu and Ar at high (GPa) pressures, as well as the alpha-to-beta phase transition diagram of Sn, our method accurately reproduces molecular dynamics simulation results using tight-binding, machine learning, hierarchical interacting particle–neural network, and modified embedded atom method potentials,all within seconds of computation time.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical uncertainty of fission matrix eigenvalues using perturbation theory

Eigenvalue search of high dominance ratio systems may be slow to converge. The fission matrix element is defined by its element (FM){sub ij}, which are the probability for a neutron born in cell i to create a fission in cell j for a spatial mesh of n{sub i}*n{sub j} elements. Fission matrices are used in Monte Carlo criticality simulations to enhance computing speed, but also to find higher order eigenvalues. However, few studies have been made on the link between statistical uncertainties of fission matrix elements and eigenvalues uncertainties. Thus, dominance ratio statistical uncertainties remain unknown. This paper uses a new generalized perturbation theory (GPT) method to estimate sensitivities of eigenvalues to fission matrix elements and then to calculate dominance ratio uncertainties.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FlameNEST: explicit profile likelihoods with the Noble Element Simulation Technique

We present FlameNEST, a framework providing explicit likelihood evaluations in noble element particle detectors using data-driven models from the Noble Element Simulation Technique. FlameNEST provides a way to perform statistical analyses on real data with no dependence on large, computationally expensive Monte Carlo simulations by evaluating the likelihood on an event-by-event basis using analytic probability elements convolved together in a single TensorFlow multiplication. Furthermore, this robust framework creates opportunities for simple inter-collaboration analyses which will be fundamental for the future of experimental dark matter physics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Performance of Forced Oscillation Detectors in the Presence of Missing Measurements

In bulk power systems, measurement-based monitoring for large oscillations can help maintain system reliability. One of the challenges encountered in a recent field demonstration was the unavailability of measurements due to underlying measurement quality or communication problems. During the demonstration, the oscillation detector ignored a measurement location if even 10 seconds of data was missing. To extend the detector's ability to operate in these conditions, this paper evaluates the impact of three methods for addressing missing data. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are evaluated using theoretical expressions for the probability of detection along with results from simulated data and publicly available field measurements. Based on these results, a suitable approach is identified that can extend the oscillation detector's performance when large segments of data are missing.

Follum, James D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of a SiPM-based monolithic neutron scatter camera using dark counts

The Single Volume Scatter Camera (SVSC) Collaboration aims to develop portable neutron imaging systems for a variety of applications in nuclear non-proliferation. Conventional double-scatter neutron imagers are composed of several separate detector volumes organized in at least two planes. A neutron must scatter in two of these detector volumes for its initial trajectory to be reconstructed. As such, these systems typically have a large footprint and poor geometric efficiency. We report on the design and characterization of a prototype monolithic neutron scatter camera that is intended to significantly improve upon the geometrical shortcomings of conventional neutron cameras. The detector consists of a 50 mm×56 mm× 60 mm monolithic block of EJ-204 plastic scintillator instrumented on two faces with arrays of 64 Hamamatsu S13360-6075PE silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs). The electronic crosstalk is limited to < 5% between adjacent channels and < 0.1% between all other channel pairs. SiPMs introduce a significantly elevated dark count rate over PMTs, as well as correlated noise from after-pulsing and optical crosstalk. In this article, we characterize the dark count rate and optical crosstalk and present a modified event reconstruction likelihood function that accounts for them. We find that the average dark count rate per SiPM is 4.3 MHz with a standard deviation of 1.5 MHz among devices. The analysis method we employ to measure internal optical crosstalk also naturally yields the mean and width of the single-electron pulse height. Here, we calculate separate contributions to the width of the single-electron pulse-height from electronic noise and avalanche fluctuations. We demonstrate a timing resolution for a single-photon pulse to be (128 ± 4) ps. Finally, coincidence analysis is employed to measure external (pixel-to-pixel) optical crosstalk. We present a map of the average external crosstalk probability between 2×4 groups of SiPMs, as well as the in-situ timing characteristics extracted from the coincidence analysis. Further work is needed to characterize the performance of the camera at reconstructing single- and double-site interactions, as well as image reconstruction.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗