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DOE OSTI2025

SPARTA: A flux adjustment methodology to interpret complex experiments

For the accurate determination of reactivity from a detector count rate, correction of spatial effects is of prime importance. This spatial correction is often provided using simulation methodologies, but this may introduce a bias if the result of the experiment is also used as input data for the simulation. Here, this work presents a flux adjustment methodology able to infer experimental reactivity and correction of spatial effects without the need for a simulation. It can process the signal from a complex experiment such as a heat balance measurement in the TREAT reactor, where control rods are continuously adjusted to maintain a constant power. In the present work, this methodology successfully computed the reactivity and the local spatial variation of the flux of a generated signal. It also proved to be robust against noise and errors on kinetic parameters and provides a credible interpretation of a heat balance experiment in TREAT. Efficiency of flux adjustment methods for complex experiment enable a better experiment interpretation less reliant on nuclear data evaluation.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A new Monte Carlo generator for BSM physics in B → K*ℓ+ℓ− decays with an application to lepton non-universality in angular distributions

Abstract Within the widely used EvtGen framework, we have added a new event generator model forB → K * ℓ + ℓ − with improved standard model (SM) decay amplitudes and possible BSM physics contributions, which are implemented in the operator product expansion in terms of Wilson coefficients. This event generator can then be used to estimate the statistical sensitivity of a simulated experiment to the most general BSM signal resulting from dimension-six operators. We describe the advantages and potential of the newly developed ‘Sibidanov Physics Generator’ in improving the experimental sensitivity of searches for lepton non-universal BSM physics and clarifying signatures. The new generator can properly simulate BSM scenarios, interference between SM and BSM amplitudes, and correlations between different BSM observables as well as acceptance bias. We show that exploiting such correlations substantially improves experimental sensitivity. As a demonstration of the utility of the MC generator, we examine the prospects for improved measurements of lepton non-universality in angular distributions forB→K * ℓ + ℓ − decays from the expected 50 ab −1 data set of the Belle II experiment, using a four-dimensional unbinned maximum likelihood fit. We describe promising experimental signatures and correlations between observables. The use of lepton-universality violating ∆-observables significantly reduces uncertainties in the SM expectations due to QCD and resonance effects and is ideally suited for Belle II with the large data sets expected in the next decade. Thanks to the clean experimental environment of ane + e − machine, Belle II should be able to probe BSM physics in the Wilson coefficientsC 7 and$$ {C}_7^{\prime } $$ C 7 ′ , which appear at lowq 2 in the di-electron channel.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impact of Off-Design CHP Performance on the Optimal Sizing and Dispatch on Hybrid Renewable-CHP Distributed Energy Resources

The maturation of distributed energy resources (DER) has prompted the exploration of their deployment in commercial building applications due to their potential to supply energy at lower costs and emissions rates compared to centralized generation. While several software tools exist for evaluating the techno-economic potential of integrated renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) systems for distributed generation applications, many suffer from poor accuracy in capturing off-design (part load and changes in ambient air temperature and pressure) performance characteristics of microturbines, combustion turbines, or internal combustion engines. Thus, this paper presents a methodology for integrating these off-design characteristics in the mixed-integer linear program within REopt, a hybrid DER screening tool. The economic impact of the CHP off-design performance is observed through several application studies of various hybrid system configurations in different climates. Each study indicates how CHP off-design performance influences optimal sizing and dispatch decisions and therefore overall system economic value. We observe through case studies that modeling without the off-design effects, depending on the CHP prime mover and site, can result in Net Present Value predictions of hybrid systems that can be overoptimistic in frequently hot climates (up to 52%), too conservative in frequently cold climates (up to 11%), or unaffected (+/-1%) in temperate climates. Cases also highlight several advantages of hybrid systems relative to non-hybrid systems such as total economic value and the systems' ability to mitigate potentially negative consequences attributed to off-design performance.

ambient de-rate↗

DOE OSTI2022

Speculations on the W-mass measurement at CDF*

Abstract The W mass determination at the Tevatron CDF experiment reported a deviation from the SM expectation at the 7 σ level. We discuss a few possible interpretations and their collider implications. We perform electroweak global fits under various frameworks and assumptions. We consider three types of electroweak global fits in the effective-field-theory framework: the S - T , S - T - , and eight-parameter flavor-universal one. We discuss the amounts of tensions between different measurements reflected in these fits and the corresponding shifts in central values of these parameters. With these electroweak fit pictures in hand, we present a few different classes of models and discuss their compatibility with these results. We find that while explaining the discrepancy, the single gauge boson extensions face strong LHC direct search constraints unless the is fermiophobic (leptophobic), which can be realized if extra vector fermions (leptons) mix with the SM fermions (leptons). Vector-like top partners can partially generate the needed shift to the electroweak observables. The compatibility with the top squark is also studied in detail. We find that the non-degenerate top squark soft masses enhance the needed operator coefficients, enabling an allowed explanation compatible with current LHC measurements. Overall, more theoretical and experimental developments are highly in demand to reveal the physics behind this discrepancy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Correcting distortions of thin-walled machined parts by machine hammer peening

Thin-walled aerostructural components frequently get distorted after the machining process. Reworking to correct distortions or eventually rejecting parts significantly increases the cost. This paper proposes a new approach to correct distortions in thin-walled components by strategically applying hammer peening on target surfaces of a machined component. Aluminium alloy 7475-T7351 was chosen for this research. The study was divided in two stages. First, the residual stresses (RS) induced by four different pneumatic hammer peening conditions (modifying the stepover distance and initial offset) were characterised in a test coupon, and one of the conditions was selected for the next stage. In the second stage, a FEM model was used to predict distortions caused by machining in a representative workpiece. Then, the RS induced by hammer peening were included in an FEM model to define two hammer peening strategies (varying the coverage area) to analyse the capability to reduce distortions. Two workpieces were machined and then treated with the simulated hammer peening strategies for experimental validation. Results in the test coupon showed that pneumatic hammer peening can generate high compressive RS (-50 to –350 MPa) up to 800 μm depth, with their magnitude increasing with a reduced stepover distance. Application of hammer peening over 4% of the surface of the representative workpiece reduced the machining-induced distortions by 37%, and a coverage area of 100% led to and overcorrection by a factor of five. This confirms that hammer peening can be strategically applied (in target areas and changing the percentage of coverage) to correct low or severe distortions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning pipeline to predict defect behavior in metallic alloy systems

The interaction between defect and solute atoms is critical to the thermodynamic and kinetic behavior of metallic alloys under exposure to high-energy radiation, causing irradiation damage in materials. Radiation can generate non-equilibrium concentrations of point defects such as vacancies and interstitials. The excess point defects not only accelerate diffusional processes such as precipitation that cause radiation embrittlement, but also change the pathway of phase transformations, including nucleation processes. Understanding these defect behaviors is complicated by the challenge and complexity of addressing each possible local and discrete distribution of environments and chemical interactions around targeted defects-solute or solute-solute complexes. To resolve the challenge, machine learning regression techniques have emerged as powerful tools that can train and construct an energy model to accurately describe the chemical interactions of solutes and defects. In Fiscal Year 2022, the work focused on the workflow development and demonstration using machine learning regression, density functional theory, cluster expansion, and Monte Carlo simulation to predict the effects of ternary solute elements (e.g., aluminum and molybdenum) and point defects on the Cr-rich $\alpha^{\prime}$ precipitation in multicomponent FeCr model alloys. The computational outcomes include the prediction of the ternary phase diagram, vacancy formation energy for different compositions, and the effect of vacancies on the nucleation of Cr-rich clusters. The simulations predict a pronounced change of Cr solubility in bcc Fe by the addition of Al and the rejection of Al atoms from $\alpha^{\prime}$ precipitates. Additionally, the simulations show the formation of Cr-vacancy clusters as the initial nuclei for stable nucleation and growth of $\alpha^{\prime}$ particles. The results demonstrate important outcomes and applications of using machine learning pipeline to study model or commercial alloys with multicomponent solute species and point defects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Homologous mutations in human β, embryonic, and perinatal muscle myosins have divergent effects on molecular power generation

Mutations at a highly conserved homologous residue in three closely related muscle myosins cause three distinct diseases involving muscle defects: R671C in β-cardiac myosin causes hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, R672C and R672H in embryonic skeletal myosin cause Freeman–Sheldon syndrome, and R674Q in perinatal skeletal myosin causes trismus-pseudocamptodactyly syndrome. It is not known whether their effects at the molecular level are similar to one another or correlate with disease phenotype and severity. To this end, we investigated the effects of the homologous mutations on key factors of molecular power production using recombinantly expressed human β, embryonic, and perinatal myosin subfragment-1. We found large effects in the developmental myosins but minimal effects in β myosin, and magnitude of changes correlated partially with clinical severity. The mutations in the developmental myosins dramatically decreased the step size and load-sensitive actin-detachment rate of single molecules measured by optical tweezers, in addition to decreasing overall enzymatic (ATPase) cycle rate. In contrast, the only measured effect of R671C in β myosin was a larger step size. Our measurements of step size and bound times predicted velocities consistent with those measured in an in vitro motility assay. Finally, molecular dynamics simulations predicted that the arginine to cysteine mutation in embryonic, but not β, myosin may reduce pre-powerstroke lever arm priming and ADP pocket opening, providing a possible structural mechanism consistent with the experimental observations. This paper presents direct comparisons of homologous mutations in several different myosin isoforms, whose divergent functional effects are a testament to myosin’s highly allosteric nature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental and Computational Insights into the Structural Dynamics of the Fc Fragment of IgG1 Subtype from Biosimilar VEGF‐Trap

The constant fragment (Fc) of the immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1) subtype is increasingly recognized as a crucial scaffold in the development of advanced therapeutics due to its enhanced specificity, efficacy, and extended half‐life. A prime example is VEGF‐Trap (Aflibercept), a recombinant fusion protein that merges the Fc region of the IgG1 subtype with the binding domains of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors (VEGFR)‐1 and VEGFR‐2. The Fc region's role in N‐glycosylation is particularly important, as it significantly influences protein stability. Herein, the first near‐physiological temperature structures of the N‐glycan‐bound Fc fragment of IgG1 subtype from a biosimilar VEGF‐Trap are presented, determined using the SPring‐8 Angstrom Compact free electron LAser (SACLA) and the Turkish Light Source (Turkish DeLight). Comparative analysis with cryogenic structures, including existing data, reveals alternate conformations within the glycan‐binding pocket. Furthermore, molecular dynamics simulations indicate the presence of a high degree of structural plasticity, explaining how the protein adapts its structure through conformational changes. The observed structural fluctuations/conformational changes demonstrate the effect of N‐glycans on protein stability. These findings offer new insights into the molecular basis of Fc‐mediated functions and provide valuable information for the design of next‐generation therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust Combined Heat and Hybrid Power (CHHP) for High Electrical Efficiency Cogeneration

Georgia Tech (Prime Recipient), the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) investigated a hybrid fuel cell/ gas turbine system concept as a combined heat and hybrid power (CHHP) system for both robust and high power-to-process heat ratio cogeneration. The novelty of the proposed system entailed the distinct, elevated electrical efficiencies it maintains while simultaneously supporting a broad span of heating needs (e.g., supply temperatures) demanded across variable heat loads. The scope included: 1) leveraging a pioneering national lab facility configured for dynamic system operability development of hybrid fuel cell/gas turbine cycles; 2) enabling technology development to adjust and modulate the quality and quantity of thermal supply to bottoming heat loads via novel extreme temperature gas bypass valves. Hybrid fuel cell/gas turbine systems have primarily been reduced-to-practice in a constrained (e.g., initial proof-of-concept) manner and have still demonstrated considerable electrical efficiencies. However, these pre-pilot systems have focused upon electrical efficiencies and electrical power generation as the exclusive energy demand. Such hybrid systems had not been extensively researched or developed for flexible and variable operation consisting of both power and heat demands; however, these variable combined power and heat demands are characteristic of many types of manufacturers such as animal/poultry processing, bakeries and milk/flour/pastry manufacturing, textile mills, and electrochemical processing. Commercially, developing the system into a working combined heat and power system benefits these types of manufacturers by allowing them to meet their power and heat demands at a lower cost, higher efficiency, and/or through onsite generation. Therefore, the technical scope of this project was largely to study and facilitate these hybrid systems as combined heat and hybrid power (CHHP) systems that include dynamic operability for variable heat and power loads and/or grid dynamics for various types of manufacturers. Simulation results were used to predict the performance of the CHHP system and conceptually develop it to achieve desired dynamic operability. Experimentally, the primary goal was to design, manufacture, and experiment upon a high-temperature bypass valve. Experimental data included air mass flow rates through the valve orifice when the valve was changed to variable extent between fully closed and fully open. The experimental data was then used to create a semi-empirical computational model of the bypass valve. Concluded simulation goals for the research included developing computational heat exchanger models for the hybrid system inclusive of the bottoming heat exchanger and the recuperative heat exchanger, and then combining the computational recuperator model with the computational valve model. Afterwards, the computational models were then integrated to predict the dynamic operation of hybrid fuel cell/gas turbine cycles throughout a design space and reporting such. The scope stated in the preceding paragraph was packaged into five specific goals: 1) enabling the simulation of dynamic combined heat and power through the creation of computational, modular heat exchanger models; 2) simulation and exploration of the CHHP system’s performance by integrating the heat exchanger models with the national lab’s pre-existing hybrid system (computational) simulation, but without the recuperator bypass valve concept in order to initially determine how the (baseline) system behaves and can be controlled in order to meet variable heat and power demands; 3) development and initial deployment of the high-temperature recuperator bypass valve technology in order to confirm and characterize the approach; 4) usage of the experimental data for the valve to create a semi-empirical computational model for the bypass valve which could then be combined with the heat exchanger computational models; 5) repeat of the second task of simulating and exploring the system’s performance, but this time including the bypass valve to resolve its efficacy. Tasks were successfully completed, and the general notion of flexibly operating, high electrical efficiency CHHP was further corroborated. Supportive details are provided in the report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Introduction of a Variable Inductance Transformer for the Design of Resonant Power Converters

Magnetic integration is a hot topic in power electronics that concerns the use of a transformer’s leakage and magnetizing inductances purposefully in isolated power electronic converters, thereby giving the opportunity to save the cost and footprint of any additional inductor. This is of prime interest, especially in CLLLC resonant converters which require up to three inductors. For a complete integration of these inductances, the concept of a variable inductance transformer (VIT) is introduced in this thesis. A VIT is an adaptive magnetic structure that facilitates an easy adjustment of both magnetizing and leakage inductances to meet their desired values. However, for a more promising design, an accurate estimation of these inductances is necessary. While the evaluation of magnetizing inductance is quite straightforward, the calculation of leakage inductance is rather convoluted, because the leakage inductance is influenced by both the winding layout and the operating frequency. In this thesis, three new semi-analytical methods for calculating the frequency-independent leakage inductance, and a novel semi-analytical method for evaluating the frequency-dependent leakage inductance are proposed. These methods can calculate the respective leakage inductances of a VIT within an outstanding ±5% uncertainty. Finally, a bidirectional CLLLC resonant dc-dc converter is investigated for the constant current constant voltage (CCCV) charging of the next-generation 900 V traction battery of an electric vehicle. A new voltage gain equation is derived for designing the CLLLC resonant tank, and a small-signal model is presented for designing the variable-frequency feedback controller. Furthermore, a new methodology to design a VIT is developed to overcome the challenges associated with small coupling coefficients and guarantee a complete magnetic integration of the tank inductances. All theoretical results presented herein are verified through simulations and experiments performed on hardware prototypes designed in the lab.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A research agenda for the science of actionable knowledge: Drawing from a review of the most misguided to the most enlightened claims in the science-policy interface literature

Linking science with action affords a prime opportunity to leverage greater societal impact from research and increase the use of evidence in decision-making. Success in these areas depends critically upon processes of producing and mobilizing knowledge, as well as supporting and making decisions. For decades, scholars have idealized and described these social processes in different ways, resulting in numerous assumptions that now variously guide engagements at the interface of science and society. We systematically catalog these assumptions based on prior research on the science-policy interface, and further distill them into a set of 26 claims. We then elicit expert perspectives (n = 16) about these claims to assess the extent to which they are accurate or merit further examination. Out of this process, we construct a research agenda to motivate future scientific research on actionable knowledge, prioritizing areas that experts identified as critical gaps in understanding of the science-society interface. The resulting agenda focuses on how to define success, support intermediaries, build trust, and evaluate the importance of consensus and its alternatives – all in the diverse contexts of science-society-decision-making interactions. We further raise questions about the centrality of knowledge in these interactions, discussing how a governance lens might be generative of efforts to support more equitable processes and outcomes. We offer these suggestions with hopes of furthering the science of actionable knowledge as a transdisciplinary area of inquiry.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Nature of f-Element Soft Donor Interactions Using Electronically Tunable Azolate Ionic Liquids

This project was undertaken to advance the understanding of how f-elements interact with moderately soft donors, a heavily investigated yet open question which is of prime importance in spent nuclear fuel processing and fundamental inorganic chemistry. During the course of the project, based on exciting results, a stretch goal was developed to study the hydrolysis products of transuranic actinide metals, a somewhat understudied field even with its significance in nuclear fuel cycle and impacts in environmental chemistry. The stretch goal was to take our serendipitous discovery of an easy route to isolation of crystalline multinuclear ƒ-element hydrolysis products, and apply it to gaining a mechanistic understanding of Pu(III/IV) colloid formation. The simplicity of our techniques should lend themselves to the remote handling required for study of many transuranic elements. We developed several methodologies using azolium azolate chemistry to overcome ƒ-element hydrolysis problems that prohibit the isolation of ƒ-element soft donor complexes and to build a crystallographic library of ƒ-element N-donor complexes as a means to understand the fundamental differences between actinide and lanthanide interactions with moderately soft donor ligands. Our next major endeavor will be to transfer this chemistry from 4ƒ elements to transuranic elements, particularly in the study of hydrolysis of Pu(III/IV). While our work is fundamental in nature, applications of the knowledge we are generating should be felt in such diverse fields as catalysis, separations in general, nuclear waste remediation specifically, and many other applications in f-element magnetic and luminescent properties. The potential ramifications of the consistent and robust formation of hydrolysis controlled hexanuclear lanthanide structures are enormous, with future uses being catalyst formation, higher-nuclearity structure synthesis using our hexanuclear motif as a fundamental building block, Pu waste remediation, separations, and many other potential applications resulting from characteristic magnetic and luminescent properties of lanthanide polynuclear structures. Three synthetic methodologies (direct mixing with variable stoichiometries, use of volatile solvent, metathesis) were developed starting with 7 acidic and 6 basic azoles to obtain ionic liquids suitable for f-element coordination. Proton transfer by acidic/basic azole combination led to suitable low melting salts and two cocrystals. Acid/base reaction of azoles with soft-donor permanent cations of ([X 4444 ][OH] (where [X 4444 ] + = tetrabutylammonium [N 4444 ] + or tetrabutylphosphonium [P 4444 ] + ) with weakly acidic azoles including imidazole, 1,2,3-triazole, 1,2,4-triazole, 5-aminotetrazole, 4,5-dicyanoimidazole, and 2-amino-4,5-dicyanoimidazole) revealed several suitable low-melting salts. Metathesis reactions of Na(azolate) were conducted by first using weakly acidic azoles including 4,5-dicyanoimidazole, 2-amino-4,5-dicyanoimidazole, 5-aminotetrazole, and 1,2,4-triazole to form sodium or lithium salts using group(I) hydroxides in methanolic solutions. The best results were obtained by reacting the basic and acidic azoles directly in 1:1 or 3:1 ratios at elevated temperatures. Twenty-two azole mixtures were identified which are either low melting solids or room temperature liquids. Each of the low melting solids was confirmed to be a new solid phase, each of which is being further characterized. The liquids and solids are anticipated to be ILs, eutectics, or partially ionized systems, all of which will be suitable for the dissolution of f-element salts. Five new synthetic methodologies were developed to finding suitable crystallization conditions for f-element complexation with the goal of finding simple one pot reaction syntheses and crystallization strategies that could be used under the demanding conditions of transuranic chemistries. These synthetic methods yield many new crystalline phases which were studied by single crystal X-ray diffraction.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Vanishing dynamic strength measured in a transient high-pressure phase of tin

This work reports two independent experimental estimations of the dynamic strength of the body-centered tetragonal (bct) 𝛾 phase of tin, which occurs at pressures above about 9 GPa and transforms promptly back to the ambient 𝛽 phase upon pressure release. Measuring strength in such a transient high-pressure phase is challenging. One measurement used free-surface Richtmyer-Meshkov instabilities generated with gas gun impact. Another set of measurements used ramp-release loading in a pulsed-power facility. Strength estimations came from comparison to simulations using a comprehensive multiphase modeling framework that includes equation of state, shear moduli, and strength separately for each phase, and treats mixed-phase regions. Both experimental methods found the 𝛾-phase strength to be very low, within experimental uncertainty of zero. The existing literature on other materials, by contrast, almost universally reports higher strength in transient high-pressure phases compared with ambient phases. Recent Molecular-Dynamics simulations on tin in the literature showed almost zero deviatoric strength during a deformation-induced bct → bct transformation in which one of the 𝛾-phase 𝑎 axes “flips” to the 𝑐 axis. This reorientation currently provides the most plausible explanation for the low observed strength in 𝛾-phase tin.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

XRISM Forecast for the Coma Cluster: Stormy, with a Steep Power Spectrum

The XRISM Resolve microcalorimeter array measured the velocities of hot intracluster gas at two positions in the Coma galaxy cluster: ${3}^{{\prime} }\times {3}^{{\prime} }$ squares at the center and at 6$^{\prime} $ (170 kpc) to the south. We find the line-of-sight velocity dispersions in those regions to be σ z = 208 ± 12 km s −1 and 202 ± 24 km s −1 , respectively. The central value corresponds to a 3D Mach number of M = 0.24 ± 0.015 and a ratio of the kinetic pressure of small-scale motions to thermal pressure in the intracluster plasma of only 3.1% ± 0.4%, at the lower end of predictions from cosmological simulations for merging clusters like Coma, and similar to that observed in the cool core of the relaxed cluster A2029. Meanwhile, the gas in both regions exhibits high line-of-sight velocity differences from the mean velocity of the cluster galaxies, Δv z = 450 ± 15 km s −1 and 730 ± 30 km s −1 , respectively. A small contribution from an additional gas velocity component, consistent with the cluster optical mean, is detected along a sight line near the cluster center. The combination of the observed velocity dispersions and bulk velocities is not described by a Kolmogorov velocity power spectrum of steady-state turbulence; instead, the data imply a much steeper effective slope (i.e., relatively more power at larger linear scales). This may indicate either a very large dissipation scale, resulting in the suppression of small-scale motions, or a transient dynamic state of the cluster, where large-scale gas flows generated by an ongoing merger have not yet cascaded down to small scales.

coma cluster↗

DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Waveform LiDAR data from NEON AOP surveys

This dataset provides Level 1 (L1) full-waveform light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data collected for the 2025 Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS). These data were acquired to enable characterization of vegetation structure and other three-dimensional features of the land surface, and to evaluate structural changes that may have occurred between a prior LiDAR acquisition in 2018 and the 2025 overflight. Waveform LiDAR data can provide more detailed information about objects on the ground than discrete point clouds typically do, and they are often used for granular target segmentation and characterization of subcanopy vegetation. The data were acquired over three study domains in the Upper Gunnison river basin: the upper East River watershed (CRBU); Almont Triangle and Taylor Canyon (ALMO); and Upper Taylor River watershed (UPTA) between 2025-06-13 and 2025-07-15. LiDAR data were acquired using the Optech Galaxy Prime Airborne LiDAR Terrain Mapper onboard the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP). These are the primary waveform LiDAR data delivered by NEON and are provided per flightline in compressed Pulsewaves format, an open-source binary file standard. A Pulsewaves object comprises a two files: a pulse (.pls) file, which stores the geographic origin, outgoing vector, and metadata for every laser pulse emitted by the scanner, and a wave file (.wvs), which stores the sequential amplitude samples of the outgoing pulse and the returning signals. The files are published here in their compressed forms (.plz, .wvz). All waveform data were processed following the theoretical workflow described in the NEON L0-to-L1 Waveform LiDAR Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (Krause and Goulden 2022a); however, the Pulsewaves output format differs from a legacy format described in that document. Waveform amplitude samples are recorded at 1 nanosecond intervals. All coordinates are provided in meters. Horizontal coordinates are referenced in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone 13N and the World Geodetic System (WGS) 1984 ensemble datum. Elevations are referenced to Geoid12A. Waveform data for the UPTA survey area were collected without incident and the published records are complete. However, both the ALMO and CRBU collections experienced issues that resulted in incomplete data for those areas. On collection day 2018-06-16 a hardware failure caused the waveform digitizer to lose data from the eastern edge of the ALMO site (Figure 22). The waveform data for flightlines 2–20 could not be extracted from the digitizer, and the data proved unrecoverable. As a result, a portion of the site does not have coverage with waveform data. Although no hardware failure was observed during collection over the CRBU area, final waveform files generated by vendor software contained only ~25% of the expected number of return pulses. After discovery, NEON initiated troubleshooting with the vendor. The root cause of the data ablation had not been identified at the time of publication. Additional data will be published in an update to this package if further recovery proves successful. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgement: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

DOE OSTI2023

PRIMED for the Future: Purposing Raw Intake for Machine Learning-Enabled Detection (Final Report)

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how a novel, elusive, and diffuse biological threat can engender uncertainty and misinformation, and it underscored the need for flexible analytical modalities agnostic to the identity of biological material. Yet even before the pandemic, recognition of the limitations of the current, list-based approach, which focuses on known pathogens and biotoxins, and of the importance of agent-agnostic biodetection was growing within the biosecurity community. In a 2018 report on “Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology,” for example, the National Academy of Sciences stated that “an overreliance on the Select Agent List is a systematic weakness affecting many aspects of the United States’ current biodefense mitigation capability”. More recently, a group of biodefense researchers proposed the identification and adoption of “bioagent-agnostic signatures (BASs)” as a way of detecting and characterizing not only existing agents but also novel ones, an approach they believe will “enable a more flexible and resilient biodefense posture”. Indeed, the future of biodetection requires us to begin developing novel analytics that can identify anomalies and/or characteristics that indicate a potential threat, whether known or unknown, without looking for a specific signature that has been identified previously. To assess potential threats more rapidly, it is critical to develop agnostic artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) systems that can be employed for real-time assessment of the nature and source of a perturbation. Such systems should be multi scale and multi-dimensional, integrating sensor data from a range of biological, chemical, and physical application spaces. Emerging deep learning (DL) models demonstrate exceptional promise for identification of discriminatory features within multi-dimensional datasets. DL models have the capacity to recognize and encode highly complex patterns in a wide range of input data modalities, including images, text, and biological/chemical/physical spectra. As such, they can execute a wide range of assessments and determinations that have traditionally required a human operator. The promise of advances in DL is apparent in the realm of human health and medicine. DL models have been validated for evaluating a variety of clinical threats to human health in a range of contexts, including infection and cancer, and they demonstrated improved performance in predicting stroke relative to human neurologists in some categories of data. Continuously evolving advances in AI/ML are expected to support more efficient evaluation of raw sequence, spectroscopy, and spectrometry data. For instance, recent advances and deployment of large language models (LLM) such as Generative Pre training Transformer (GPT) and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) have already motivated application of these models for biological function prediction. As frameworks such as LLMs become larger and more complex in their representations, their capacity to serve as pre-trained models that can be fine-tuned for biological/biodetection purposes will similarly be amplified. While existing and emerging AI/ML have found broad applicability and use cases in the clinical sciences, development for environmental evaluation and biodetection has been limited. Functionalizing such capabilities for this purpose requires an understanding of the existing technical landscape and how the respective tools and algorithms are currently being employed. This landscape awareness then allows an assessment of the current practical capabilities of existing models and the anticipated requirements and development efforts that will be needed to adapt available algorithms for biodetection applications relevant to DHS. Leveraging expertise in biodetection, ML, and operational biodetection, the effort described in this report is comprised of a systematic landscape assessment (Subtask 2.1), comparative evaluation (Subtask 2.2), and formulation of a value proposition (Subtask 2.3) for the prospect of ML-enabled, agnostic biodetection from raw, or minimally-processed, datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗