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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1995

A steady-state Kalman filter for assimilating data from a single polar orbiting satellite

A steady-state scheme for data assimilation in the context of a single, short period (relative to a day), sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting satellite is examined. If the satellite takes observations continuously, the gains, which are the weights for blending observations and predictions together, are steady in time. For a linear system forced by random noise, the optimal steady-state gains (Wiener gains) are equivalent to those of a Kalman filter. Computing the Kalman gains increases the computational cost of the model by a large factor, but computing the Wiener gains does not. The latter are computed by iteration using prior estimates of the gains to assimilate simulated observations of one run of the model, termed 'truth' into another run termed 'prediction'. At each stage, the prediction errors form the basis for the next estimate of the gains. Steady state is achieved after three or four iterations. Further simplification is achieved by making the gains depend on longitudinal distance from the observation point, not on absolute longitude. For a single-layer primitive equation model, the scheme works well even if only the mass field is observed but not the velocity field. Although the scheme was developed for Mars Observer, it should be applicable to data retrieved from Earth atmosphere satellites, for example, UARS.

Banfield, Don↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commuter preferences for a first-mile/last-mile microtransit service in the United States

Transportation system models rely heavily upon value of time (VOT) estimates to predict customer behavior. Accurate VOT estimates are particularly vital for planning new services such as on-demand ride hailing or microtransit because customers’ sensitivity to wait time, walk time, and route detour time affects their likelihood of selecting these modes. If an incorrect VOT is assumed during service planning, then ridership will be depressed because of a mismatch between their preferences and how the system is designed. In this paper, we report on the measurement of VOT for microtransit, a shared first-mile/last-mile mobility service, obtained using stated preference microdata from four U.S. cities. Here, we found a median in-vehicle VOT for microtransit of $\$$18.63 (95% CI: $\$$13.39–$\$$24.46) and an access VOT of $\$$75.38 (95% CI: $\$$59.22–$\$$94.96). The former is practically equal to the VOT we found for respondents’ current modes ($\$$20.24, 95% CI: $\$$13.71–$\$$26.94). We also found that men, younger riders, the highly educated, and transit riders are more likely to be interested in microtransit. Since the disutility of time spent on microtransit is not higher than that of other modes, we believe this new service has the potential to attract riders, and particularly if the system is designed with low waiting and walking times.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2024

Performance of Two Battery Prognostic Applications used by Two Octocopters for Safe Low Altitude Autonomous Flight Operations

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in online predictions of the remaining available flying time for two different electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (eUAVs) powered by lithium-ion-polymer batteries. Flight tests for various automation research missions for the two vehicles were monitored using two on-board battery health management applications to make predictions of the remaining flying time (RFT) for each eUAV and to predict the state of the battery. Playback of the voltage, current and temperature profiles of the battery discharge were used to assess the accuracy of the estimation of the voltage and the charge states of the models as well as the estimate of the RFT. The reference ground truth values were the observed landing time and the measured battery pack resting pack voltage 20 minutes after the flight. The predicted RFT, state of charge (SoC), and state of energy (SoE) were compared with the observed results. Noise values of one standard deviation from the mean values of the internal charge states of the battery model during a reference run were used to vary the states during simulation. One application used an equivalent circuit model of the electrical dynamics of the battery pack, and the other application used a reduced-order electrochemistry model. The variation of the model state components was compared to the variation in the estimate of the RFT and the variation in the SoE to estimate a confidence factor. Variation in the estimates caused by factors affecting the off-line laboratory parameter identification experiments is considered. Variation in the estimates due to environmental factors are discussed.

Assurance↗
NASA NTRS1982

Software for the grouped optimal aggregation technique

The grouped optimal aggregation technique produces minimum variance, unbiased estimates of acreage and production for countries, zones (states), or any designated collection of acreage strata. It uses yield predictions, historical acreage information, and direct acreage estimate from satellite data. The acreage strata are grouped in such a way that the ratio model over historical acreage provides a smaller variance than if the model were applied to each individual stratum. An optimal weighting matrix based on historical acreages, provides the link between incomplete direct acreage estimates and the total, current acreage estimate.

Brown, P. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the External Effects of Air Taxis in Reducing the Energy Consumption of Road Traffic

Air taxis are currently being demonstrated. Few studies have quantified their external effects in reducing on-road vehicle fuel consumption. The hypothesis of this paper is that air taxis may divert some drivers away from congested traffic corridors, improve traffic speed and fuel economy, and reduce congestion-induced energy consumption. A model is developed that links several key components: mode choice, the relationship between travel demand and traffic speeds, the relationship between traffic speeds and fuel economies, and the heterogenous value of travel time. It is applied to the route from downtown Los Angeles to Los Angeles International Airport, where at peak hours 38,200 vehicles attempt to use the route that has an hourly capacity of 17,200 vehicles. The model estimates that, with conservative assumptions and near-term technologies, diverting 3.2% of the traffic to air taxis could produce a 15% reduction in traffic vehicle fuel use. With optimistic assumptions and mature technologies, the study estimates that diverting 20% of traffic could reduce the traffic vehicle fuel use by about 74%. The key insight is that if a small share of congested travelers switched to air taxis, motivated by private benefits of time savings, significant external benefits for other road travelers (time savings and fuel savings) and to society (reduced energy use and emissions), would ensue creating a win-win-win outcome. Overall, these estimates (which are not intended as predictions because of the stated limitations) strongly suggest the need to consider the external energy effect in future cost-benefit analyses of air taxi technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2012

Wavefront Compensation Segmented Mirror Sensing and Control

The primary mirror of very large submillimeter-wave telescopes will necessarily be segmented into many separate mirror panels. These panels must be continuously co-phased to keep the telescope wavefront error less than a small fraction of a wavelength, to ten microns RMS (root mean square) or less. This performance must be maintained continuously across the full aperture of the telescope, in all pointing conditions, and in a variable thermal environment. A wavefront compensation segmented mirror sensing and control system, consisting of optical edge sensors, Wavefront Compensation Estimator/Controller Soft ware, and segment position actuators is proposed. Optical edge sensors are placed two per each segment-to-segment edge to continuously measure changes in segment state. Segment position actuators (three per segment) are used to move the panels. A computer control system uses the edge sensor measurements to estimate the state of all of the segments and to predict the wavefront error; segment actuator commands are computed that minimize the wavefront error. Translational or rotational motions of one segment relative to the other cause lateral displacement of the light beam, which is measured by the imaging sensor. For high accuracy, the collimator uses a shaped mask, such as one or more slits, so that the light beam forms a pattern on the sensor that permits sensing accuracy of better than 0.1 micron in two axes: in the z or local surface normal direction, and in the y direction parallel to the mirror surface and perpendicular to the beam direction. Using a co-aligned pair of sensors, with the location of the detector and collimated light source interchanged, four degrees of freedom can be sensed: transverse x and y displacements, as well as two bending angles (pitch and yaw). In this approach, each optical edge sensor head has a collimator and an imager, placing one sensor head on each side of a segment gap, with two parallel light beams crossing the gap. Two sets of optical edge sensors are used per segment-to-segment edge, separated by a finite distance along the segment edge, for four optical heads, each with an imager and a collimator. By orienting the beam direction of one edge sensor pair to be +45 away from the segment edge direction, and the other sensor pair to be oriented -45 away from the segment edge direction, all six degrees of freedom of relative motion between the segments can be measured with some redundancy. The software resides in a computer that receives each of the optical edge sensor signals, as well as telescope pointing commands. It feeds back the edge sensor signals to keep the primary mirror figure within specification. It uses a feed-forward control to compensate for global effects such as decollimation of the primary and secondary mirrors due to gravity sag as the telescope pointing changes to track science objects. Three segment position actuators will be provided per segment to enable controlled motions in the piston, tip, and tilt degrees of freedom. These actuators are driven by the software, providing the optical changes needed to keep the telescope phased.

Redding, David C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

An 8-Year, High-Resolution Reanalysis of Atmospheric CO2 Mixing Ratios Based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS Retrievals

The NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) reanalysis blends OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2) and GOSAT-ACOS (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite-Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space) retrievals (top) with GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) model predictions (bottom) to estimate the full 3D (three-dimensional) state of CO2 every 3 hours (middle). This poster describes monthly atmospheric growth rates derived from the reanalysis and an application to aircraft data with the potential to aid bias correction.

GEOS-Carb↗
NASA NTRS1990

Adaptive state estimation for control of flexible structures

This paper proposes a new approach of obtaining adaptive state estimation of a system in the presence of unknown system disturbances and measurement noise. In the beginning, a non-optimal Kalman filter with arbitrary initial guess for the process and measurement noises is implemented. At the same time, an adaptive transversal predictor (ATP) based on the recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm is used to yield optimal one- to p- step-ahead output predictions using the previous input/output data. Referring to these optimal predictions the Kalman filter gain is updated and the performance of the state estimation is thus improved. If forgetting factor is implemented in the recursive least-squares algorithm, this method is also capable of dealing with the situation when the noise statistics are slowly time-varying. This feature makes this new approach especially suitable for the control of flexible structures. A numerical example demonstrates the feasibility of this real time adaptive state estimation method.

Chen, Chung-Wen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt

The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization-Based Dynamic Voltage Support of Microgrids Using Energy Storage Systems

A microgrid network is characterized by a high R/X ratio, making the voltage more sensitive to active power changes compared to bulk power systems, where the voltage is regulated primarily by reactive power. Due to its sensitivity, voltage control approaches for microgrids should also consider the active power input coupling, making it very different from conventional power systems. Additionally, as the energy costs associated with active and reactive powers are different and the operational conditions of microgrids connected to active distribution systems vary over time, the ideal controller to provide voltage support must be flexible enough to handle these technical and operational constraints. This paper proposes a model predictive control approach to provide dynamic voltage support using energy storage systems. This approach uses a simplified predictive model of the system to solve the model predictive control problem. By proper selection of model predictive control weighting parameters, the quality of service provided can be adjusted to achieve the desired performance. A simulation study in MATLAB/Simulink validates the proposed approach for the Cordova, Alaska microgrid. Results show that the performance of the voltage support can be adjusted depending on the choice of weight and constraints of the controller.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2012

Method and apparatus for autonomous, in-receiver prediction of GNSS ephemerides

Methods and apparatus for autonomous in-receiver prediction of orbit and clock states of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are described. Only the GNSS broadcast message is used, without need for periodic externally-communicated information. Earth orientation information is extracted from the GNSS broadcast ephemeris. With the accurate estimation of the Earth orientation parameters it is possible to propagate the best-fit GNSS orbits forward in time in an inertial reference frame. Using the estimated Earth orientation parameters, the predicted orbits are then transformed into Earth-Centered-Earth-Fixed (ECEF) coordinates to be used to assist the GNSS receiver in the acquisition of the signals. GNSS satellite clock states are also extracted from the broadcast ephemeris and a parameterized model of clock behavior is fit to that data. The estimated modeled clocks are then propagated forward in time to enable, together with the predicted orbits, quicker GNSS signal acquisition.

Bar-Sever, Yoaz E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical kinetics predictions for NH 2 + HO 2

Recent modeling studies of NH 3 oxidation, which are motivated by the prospective role of ammonia as a zero-carbon fuel, have indicated significant discrepancies between existing literature mechanisms. In this study high level theoretical kinetics predictions have been obtained for the reaction of NH 2 with HO 2 , which has previously been highlighted as an important reaction with high sensitivity and high uncertainty. The potential energy surface is explored with coupled cluster calculations including large basis sets and high-level corrections to yield high accuracy (~0.2 kcal/mol) estimates of the stationary point energies. Variational transition state theory is used to predict the microcanonical rate constants, which are then incorporated in master equation treatments of the temperature and pressure dependent kinetics. For the radical-radical channels, the microcanonical rates are obtained from variable reaction coordinate transition state theory implementing directly evaluated multireference electronic energies. The analysis yields predictions for the total rate constant as well as the branching to the NH 3 + O 2 , H 2 NO + OH, and HNO + H 2 O channels. Rate constants are also reported for the H 2 NO + OH reaction as they arise naturally from the analysis. The rate constant and branching fraction determined in this work for the NH 2 + HO 2 reaction deviate significantly from values used in most previous modeling studies. The fact that the main product channel is chain terminating, rather than propagating, has strong implications for modeling NH 3 ignition and oxidation, in particular at intermediate temperatures and elevated pressure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal property characterization of phase change materials in building applications: A systematic review of fundamentals, recent progress, and future directions

Phase change materials (PCMs) can reduce building peak loads and enable demand-responsive thermal energy storage (TES), but their deployment depends on reliable measurement and interpretation of thermal properties across laboratory, intermediate, and application scales. Here, this review systematically examines characterization methods, testing protocols, and recent advances for neat PCMs and PCM composites, emphasizing thermal conductivity, enthalpy-related properties (phase change temperature, latent heat, specific heat), and cycling stability. For thermal conductivity, we compare steady-state and transient techniques and note limitations when phase transition and contact resistance affect measurements. For enthalpy–temperature characterization, we discuss differential scanning calorimetry together with intermediate- and bulk-scale methods, including T-history, heat flow meter testing, and three-layer calorimetry (3LC), to generate application-relevant enthalpy–temperature profiles. Cycling stability is organized into four experimental families: thermoelectric–air, fully thermoelectric, water-bath, and in situ chamber approaches, with attention to separating reversible supercooling from true degradation such as phase segregation. We highlight emerging noncontact diagnostics, including infrared thermography and embedded sensing, for spatially resolved validation and multiscale interpretation. Finally, we review the growing use of AI and machine learning for property prediction, inverse characterization from experimental signals, and real-time state estimation in building-integrated TES. Key needs include harmonized protocols, interlaboratory benchmarking, uncertainty reporting, and metadata-rich datasets to accelerate reproducible PCM qualification for grid-flexible buildings.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Current Observer Based Predictive Decoupled Power Control Grid-Interactive Inverter

This paper presents a sensor-less current model predictive control (MPC) scheme via a full state observer based current estimator. The grid interactive inverters’ control schemes require current and voltage sensors. Elimination of current sensor enhances the inverter reliability. This paper leverages the inherent characteristics of MPC towards robust current sensor-less grid interactive inverter with LC filter. The observer for inductor current is developed based on the existing capacitor voltage measurement. The estimator dynamic state-space matrices are then obtained through reconstruction of the inverter model with the capacitor voltage and inductor current being the state variables. The controller objectives are to regulate active and reactive power in a decoupled manner. The theoretical expectation, controller performance, and accuracy of the current estimation are verified by conducting a real-time simulation via Typhoon HIL.

Zhang, Zhen↗
NASA NTRS1996

Durability and Damage Tolerance of High Temperature Polymeric Composites

Modern durability and damage tolerance predictions for composite material systems rely on accurate estimates of the local stress and material states for each of the constituents, as well as the manner in which the constituents interact. In this work, an number of approaches to estimating the stress states and interactions are developed. First, an elasticity solution is presented for the problem of a penny-shaped crack in an N-phase composite material system opened by a prescribed normal pressure. The stress state around such a crack is then used to estimate the stress concentrations due to adjacent fiber fractures in composite materials. The resulting stress concentrations are then used to estimate the tensile strength of the composite. The predicted results are compared with experimental values. In addition, a cumulative damage model for fatigue is presented. Modifications to the model are made to include the effects of variable amplitude loading. These modifications are based upon the use of remaining strength as a damage metric and the definition of an equivalent generalized time. The model is initially validated using results from the literature. Also, experimental data from APC-2 laminates and IM7/K3B laminates are used in the model. The use of such data for notched laminates requires the use of an effective hole size, which is calculated based upon strain distribution measurements. Measured remaining strengths after fatigue loading are compared with the predicted values for specimens fatigued at room temperature and 350 F (177 C).

Case, Scott W.↗