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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Detrimental effects and mitigation of the joint feature in double shell implosion simulations

Double shell capsules provide an attractive option in inertial confinement fusion experiments due to their potential for achieving a low-convergence, robust burn. However, these designs suffer from symmetry degradation and accompanying reduced fuel confinement due to the currently necessary joint between the two hemispheres of the outer shell. Here, the gap widens as a result of the excess ablation pressure produced by x rays that penetrate the joint during the drive phase, and this perturbation grows and imprints onto the inner shell during the collision. xRAGE Eulerian radiation-hydrodynamic simulations predict significant reductions in deuterium–tritium fusion yields compared to joint-less simulations when the depth of the outer joint is increased, whereas the performance is less sensitive to the depth of the inner gap. Here we examine the technique of plating the insides of the outer gap with a high-Z material to mitigate the impact of this feature. Gold-plating in quantities comparable to or exceeding the “missing” outer shell mass shows promise toward restoring both implosion symmetry and yield closer to the joint-less levels, and synthetic diagnostics suggest that high-energy x-ray radiographs can capture this shape retention of the inner and outer shells in experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gyrokinetic simulations compared with magnetic fluctuations diagnosed with a Faraday-effect radial interferometer-polarimeter in the DIII-D pedestal

Abstract Experimental data on electromagnetic fluctuations in DIII-D, made available by the Faraday-effect radial interferometer-polarimeter (RIP) diagnostic Chen (2016 Rev. Sci. Instrum. 87 11E108), is examined in comparison with detailed gyrokinetic simulations using gyrokinetic electromagnetic numerical experiment (GENE). The diagnostic has the unique capability of making internal measurements of fluctuating magnetic fields ∫ n e δ B r d R ∫ n e d R . Local linear simulations identify microtearing modes (MTMs) over a substantial range of toroidal mode numbers (peaking at n = 15) with frequencies in good agreement with the experimental data. Local nonlinear simulations reinforce this result by producing a magnetic frequency spectrum in good agreement with that diagnosed by RIP. Simulated heat fluxes are in the range of experimental expectations. However, magnetic fluctuation amplitudes are substantially lower than the experimental expectations. Possible sources of this discrepancy are discussed, notably the fact that the diagnostics are localized at the mid-plane—the poloidal location where the simulations predict the fluctuation amplitudes to be smallest. Despite some discrepancies, several connections between simulations and experiments, combined with general criteria discriminating between potential pedestal instabilities, strongly point to MTMs as the source of the observed magnetic fluctuations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

HD 222925: A New Opportunity to Explore the Astrophysical and Nuclear Conditions of r-process Sites

Abstract With the most trans-iron elements detected of any star outside the solar system, HD 222925 represents the most complete chemical inventory among metal-poor stars enhanced with elements made by the rapid neutron capture (“ r ”) process. As such, HD 222925 may be a new “template” for the observational r -process, where before the (much higher-metallicity) solar r -process residuals were used. In this work, we test under which conditions a single site accounts for the entire elemental r -process abundance pattern of HD 222925. We found that several of our tests—with the single exception of the black hole–neutron star merger case—challenge the single-site assumption by producing an ejecta distribution that is highly constrained, in disagreement with simulation predictions. However, we found that ejecta distributions that are more in line with simulations can be obtained under the condition that the nuclear data near the second r -process peak are changed. Therefore, for HD 222925 to be a canonical r -process template likely as a product of a single astrophysical source, the nuclear data need to be reevaluated. The new elemental abundance pattern of HD 222925—including the abundances obtained from space-based, ultraviolet (UV) data—call for a deeper understanding of both astrophysical r -process sites and nuclear data. Similar UV observations of additional r -process–enhanced stars will be required to determine whether the elemental abundance pattern of HD 222925 is indeed a canonical template (or an outlier) for the r -process at low metallicity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regulatory Considerations for Nuclear Energy Applications of Digital Twin Technologies

Digital twins (DTs) in complex industrial and engineering applications have potential benefits that include increased operational efficiencies, enhanced safety and reliability, improved security engineering, reduced errors, faster information sharing, and better predictions. The interest in DT technologies continues to grow, and many of these advanced technologies are expected to experience rapid and wide industry adoption in the near future. Some of the potential application areas for DTs in the nuclear industry are design, licensing, plant construction, training simulators, predictive operations and maintenance, autonomous operation and control, failure and degradation prediction, physical protection modeling and simulation, and safety and reliability analyses. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has initiated a future-focused research project to assess the regulatory viability of DTs for nuclear power plants and other NRC-regulated activities, such as fuel cycle facilities and operations. This report explores the potential impact of DT technologies in nuclear applications on NRC-regulated activities of interest. This report describes a nuclear DT system and its capabilities for nuclear power plant applications, followed by identification and discussion of some regulated activities that merit special consideration and present opportunities in implementing DT-enabling technologies and capabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tusas: A fully implicit parallel approach for coupled phase-field equations

In this study, we develop a fully-coupled, fully-implicit approach for phase-field modeling of solidification in metals and alloys. Predictive simulation of solidification in pure metals and metal alloys remains a significant challenge in the field of materials science, as microstructure formation during the solidification process plays a critical role in the properties and performance of the solid material. Our simulation approach consists of a finite element spatial discretization of the fully-coupled nonlinear system of partial differential equations at the microscale, which is treated implicitly in time with a preconditioned Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method. The approach is algorithmically scalable as well as efficient due to an effective preconditioning strategy based on algebraic multigrid and block factorization. We implement this approach in the open-source Tusas framework, which is a general, flexible tool developed in C++ for solving coupled systems of nonlinear partial differential equations. The performance of our approach is analyzed in terms of algorithmic scalability and efficiency, while the computational performance of Tusas is presented in terms of parallel scalability and efficiency on emerging heterogeneous architectures. We demonstrate that modern algorithms, discretizations, and computational science, and heterogeneous hardware provide a robust route for predictive phase-field simulation of microstructure evolution during additive manufacturing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Homologous mutations in human β, embryonic, and perinatal muscle myosins have divergent effects on molecular power generation

Mutations at a highly conserved homologous residue in three closely related muscle myosins cause three distinct diseases involving muscle defects: R671C in β-cardiac myosin causes hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, R672C and R672H in embryonic skeletal myosin cause Freeman–Sheldon syndrome, and R674Q in perinatal skeletal myosin causes trismus-pseudocamptodactyly syndrome. It is not known whether their effects at the molecular level are similar to one another or correlate with disease phenotype and severity. To this end, we investigated the effects of the homologous mutations on key factors of molecular power production using recombinantly expressed human β, embryonic, and perinatal myosin subfragment-1. We found large effects in the developmental myosins but minimal effects in β myosin, and magnitude of changes correlated partially with clinical severity. The mutations in the developmental myosins dramatically decreased the step size and load-sensitive actin-detachment rate of single molecules measured by optical tweezers, in addition to decreasing overall enzymatic (ATPase) cycle rate. In contrast, the only measured effect of R671C in β myosin was a larger step size. Our measurements of step size and bound times predicted velocities consistent with those measured in an in vitro motility assay. Finally, molecular dynamics simulations predicted that the arginine to cysteine mutation in embryonic, but not β, myosin may reduce pre-powerstroke lever arm priming and ADP pocket opening, providing a possible structural mechanism consistent with the experimental observations. This paper presents direct comparisons of homologous mutations in several different myosin isoforms, whose divergent functional effects are a testament to myosin’s highly allosteric nature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparison between Alcator C-Mod ICRF experiments and 3D full wave simulations

Reliable modeling of ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) antenna performance is essential for interpreting present experiments and guiding the design of future reactors. In this work, a 3D model of the Alcator C-Mod field-aligned antenna is implemented in the Petra-M finite-element framework [S. Shiraiwa et al 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 026024] and benchmarked against experimental results. Four experimental cases are examined. First, the simulated rectified sheath potentials on the antenna limiters are compared with measurements from a power tapering experiment. Second, proof-of-principle far-field sheath simulations are performed. In scenarios with low single-pass absorption, simulations predict enhanced sheath potentials on a distant poloidal limiter in the far field of the antenna, consistent with experimental observations. Third, the simulated antenna loading during edge localized modes follows experimental trends and appears to be dominated by the density gradient at the pedestal. Finally, Petra-M predicts the unintended excitation of high-$k$ ∥ modes during monopole phasing operation, in agreement with experimental evidence of poor wave coupling and accessibility to the plasma core. Overall, reasonable agreement is found between the simulations and experiments. At the same time, areas of imperfect agreement are identified. These provide important guidance on the limits of the current state-of-the-art modeling, which should be kept in mind when using it as a predictive tool for future reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Droplet-Gas Interactions in Nanoelectrospray Multiphase Flow

Electrospray (ES) is production of a charged droplet plume that transits from an electrically biased supply capillary to a counter electrode under the influence of an electric field. Drag interactions with the surrounding gas decelerate the droplets while transferring the momentum from droplets to accelerate the surrounding gas, resulting in an induced gas flow. This work seeks to characterize the structure of the resulting gas jet and identify the key mechanisms defining the flow structure. The phenomenon of gas jets produced by momentum transfer from nano-electrospray (nES) plumes is explored with schlieren visualization, thermal anemometry, and numerical simulations. Schlieren visualization experiments provide information on the flow structure in support of simulation predictions, and the hot thermistor anemometry measurements of gas velocities outside the spray demonstrate quantitatively validated simulation results. The study reveals the formation of a moderately high velocity coaxial gas jet within the nES plume and provides insight into the overall flow structure of the induced flow. The multiphase electrohydrodynamic simulations enable numerical experimentation to explore the fundamental physics of coupled droplet-gas transport and the resulting flow structure. The simulations, confirmed by the experiments, reveal gas jetting induced by nES with a narrow (sub hundred micrometers in diameter) core originating from the nES liquid-jet breakup region and a surrounding larger-in-extent zone (several hundred micrometers in diameter) of lower velocity gas flow within the electrospray plume. This behavior is due to nES ejecting a stream of droplets from the tip of a narrow liquid cone-jet, where the combined effect of many small droplets transferring momentum to a confined region of gas yields a narrow but high-velocity gas stream. Furthermore, the micro-jets produced by nES have practical utility for mass spectrometry, 3D printing and fabrication, and thermal management.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytic model of the remobilization of pinned glide dislocations: Including dislocation drag from phonon wind

Here, we discuss the effect of a non-constant dislocation drag coefficient on the very high strain rate regime within an analytic model describing mobile-immobile dislocation intersections applicable to fcc polycrystals. Based on previous work on dislocation drag, we estimate its temperature and pressure dependence and its effects on stress–strain rate relations. In the high temperature regime, we show that drag can remain the dominating effect even down to intermediate strain rates. We also discuss the consequences of having a limiting dislocation velocity, a feature which is typically predicted by analytic models of dislocation drag, but which is somewhat under debate because a number of MD simulations predict supersonic dislocations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational modeling of graphite degradation in molten salt reactors: Role of infiltration

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) often employ graphite as a moderator and reflector. An important challenge for deploying graphite in these reactors is that, due to limited experimental data, our understanding of graphite’s structural integrity in molten salt environments remains incomplete. Here, this study addresses heat generation from fuel-bearing salt that has infiltrated open pores in the graphite, driven primarily by pressure differentials. This is one of multiple identified physical and chemical mechanisms through which molten salt could potentially degrade graphite. Thermally driven stresses are quantified using the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) graphite moderator elements as a case study. Finite element simulations predict stress distributions at varying infiltration levels, indicating that thermal stresses increase with higher infiltration. Rare-event simulations using the parallel subset simulation framework identify the combinations and corresponding ranges of input parameters that lead to stresses above a specified threshold. In particular, combinations involving high infiltration amounts, high power density, and low thermal conductivity tend to induce the highest stresses. Under the inputs and assumptions considered in this work, the magnitudes of the thermally driven stresses are quite low, with a very low likelihood of causing failure due to exceeding the graphite’s tensile strength. Additionally, rare-event simulations were performed for two more scenarios: a scaled-up moderator geometry and a localized hotspot in the original geometry. Both cases resulted in increased susceptibility to failure, though not to a detrimental extent. Furthermore, the combined effects of irradiation and infiltration-induced thermal stresses were evaluated. The results showed that thermal stresses from infiltration were negligible compared to those caused by irradiation. The findings of such a study are inherently component-specific, but the methodology presented here could be used for similar assessments of salt-infiltration effects in other graphite components.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

MBX V1.2: Accelerating Data-Driven Many-Body Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The MBX software provides an advanced platform for molecular dynamics simulations, leveraging state-of-the-art MB-pol and MB-nrg data-driven many-body potential energy functions. Developed over the past decade, these potential energy functions integrate physics-based and machine-learned many-body terms trained on electronic structure data calculated at the "gold standard" coupled-cluster level of theory. Recent advancements in MBX have focused on optimizing its performance, resulting in the release of MBX v1.2. While the inherently many-body nature of MB-pol and MB-nrg ensures high accuracy, it poses computational challenges. MBX v1.2 addresses these challenges with significant performance improvements, including enhanced parallelism that fully harnesses the power of modern multicore CPUs. In conclusion, these advancements enable simulations on nanosecond time scales for condensed-phase systems, significantly expanding the scope of high-accuracy, predictive simulations of complex molecular systems powered by data-driven many-body potential energy functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stress Profile in Coating Layers of TRISO Fuel Particles in Contact with One Another

This work presents a discussion on a series of finite element analyses that assess stress evolution in the coating layers of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles in contact with each other while embedded in a matrix. The initial simulations were of applied uniaxial pressure versus matrix elastic modulus. These simulations predicted increasing stress in the silicon carbide coating layers of the TRISO particles with decreasing matrix elastic modulus. The second set of simulations focused on the effects of heating and cooling and the associated dimensional change on the state of stress in the coating layers. The general finding was that there was no significant difference below the coating layer’s deposition temperature. Although, above the deposition temperature, the contacting particles had higher stress compared with those that were separated. The third set of simulations focused on the effects of irradiation, specifically, creep, dimensional change, and swelling. An interface debonding model was introduced since these potential effects have a significant bearing on predicted stresses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultra-low thermal resistance and pressure drop copper and copper-tungsten diamond-shaped pin fin cold plates for liquid cooling of electronics

Modern and future data centers face increasing cooling challenges due to increasing chip thermal design power and die size, along with the need to reduce energy consumption used for cooling. High performance cooling solutions that maintain a low chip junction temperature are needed to ensure electronics reliability. This work develops an ultra-low thermal resistance and low pressure drop 75 mm × 75 mm cold plate, intended for next-generation electronics cooling. The cold plate features an array of diamond-shaped pin fins and integrated copper tungsten heat spreader, selected for its low coefficient of thermal expansion which reduces thermomechanical deformation and allows for closer integration of the cold plate with silicon dies. Starting with 300 candidate designs, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics simulations predict the thermal-hydraulic performance of cold plate subsections. The highest performing geometries are evaluated with high fidelity simulations. Four cold plates are manufactured for experiments: three with diamond-shaped pin fins and one with straights fins for comparison purposes. The cold plates are fabricated from copper-tungsten (CuW), copper (Cu), or aluminum-silicon-magnesium alloy (AlSi10Mg). The diamond-shaped pin fins achieve a roughly 15 % lower thermal resistance compared to the conventional straight fin microchannel. The highest performing design achieves a chip-to-coolant (including thermal interface material) thermal resistance of 9.0 K/kW in CuW and 6.9 K/kW in Cu under a 1 kW heat load with an inlet-to-outlet pressure drop of 9.0 kPa and water as the working fluid. This work demonstrates ultra-low thermal resistance and pressure drop cold plates for large die, high heat load applications, and shows that CuW is an attractive cold plate material for improved reliability in next generation data center cooling.

Coefficient of thermal expansion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Charged particle transport coefficient challenges in high energy density plasmas

High energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) research typically relies on computational modeling using radiation-hydrodynamics codes in order to design experiments and understand their results. These tools, in turn, rely on numerous charged particle transport and relaxation coefficients to account for laser energy absorption, viscous dissipation, mass transport, thermal conduction, electrical conduction, non-local ion (including charged fusion product) transport, non-local electron transport, magnetohydrodynamics, multi-ion-species thermalization, and electron-ion equilibration. In many situations, these coefficients couple to other physics, such as imposed or self-generated magnetic fields. Furthermore, how these coefficients combine are sensitive to plasma conditions as well as how materials are distributed within a computational cell. Uncertainties in these coefficients and how they couple to other physics could explain many of the discrepancies between simulation predictions and experimental results that persist in even the most detailed calculations. This paper reviews the challenges faced by radiation-hydrodynamics in predicting the results of HEDP and ICF experiments with regard to these and other physics models typically included in simulation codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Species Separation and Hydrogen Streaming upon Shock Release from Polystyrene under Inertial Confinement Fusion Conditions

Shock release from inertial confinement fusion (ICF) shells poses a great challenge to single-fluid hydrodynamic equations, especially for describing materials composed of different ion species. This has been evidenced by a recent experiment [Haberberger et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 123, 235001 (2019)], in which low-density plasmas ( 10 19 to 10 20 cm – 3 ) are measured to move far ahead of what radiation-hydrodynamic simulations predict. To understand such experimental observations, in this work we have performed large-scale nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations of shock release in polystyrene (CH) at experimental conditions. These simulations revealed that upon shock releasing from the back surface of a CH foil, hydrogen can stream out of the bulk of the foil due to its mass being lighter than carbon. This released hydrogen, exhibiting a much broader velocity distribution than carbon, forms low-density plasmas moving in nearly constant velocities ahead of the in-flight shell, which is in quantitative agreement with the experimental measurements. Such kinetic effect of species separation is currently missing in single-fluid radiation-hydrodynamics codes for ICF simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anisotropic Satellite Galaxy Quenching: A Unique Signature of Energetic Feedback by Supermassive Black Holes?

The quenched fraction of satellite galaxies is aligned with the orientation of the halo's central galaxy, such that on average, satellites form stars at a lower rate along the major axis of the central. This effect, called anisotropic satellite galaxy quenching (ASGQ), has been found in observational data and cosmological simulations. Analyzing the IllustrisTNG simulation, Martín-Navarro et al. recently argued that ASGQ is caused by anisotropic energetic feedback and constitutes "compelling observational evidence for the role of black holes in regulating galaxy evolution." In this Letter, we study the causes of ASGQ in state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations to evaluate this claim. We show that cosmological simulations predict that on average, satellite galaxies along the major axis of the dark matter halo tend to have been accreted at earlier cosmic times and are hosted by subhalos of larger peak halo masses. As a result, a modulation of the quenched fraction with respect to the major axis of the central galaxy is a natural prediction of hierarchical structure formation. We show that ASGQ is predicted by the UniverseMachine galaxy formation model, a model without anisotropic feedback. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even in the IllustrisTNG simulation, anisotropic satellite accretion properties are the main cause of ASGQ. Ultimately, we argue that ASGQ is not a reliable indicator of supermassive black hole feedback in galaxy formation simulations and, thus, should not be interpreted as such in observational data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗