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At least 109 records · Page 6

Evaluating the Performance of Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes During a Synoptic-Scale Snowfall Event

Increases in computing resources have allowed for the utilization of high-resolution weather forecast models capable of resolving cloud microphysical and precipitation processes among varying numbers of hydrometeor categories. Several microphysics schemes are currently available within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, ranging from single-moment predictions of precipitation content to double-moment predictions that include a prediction of particle number concentrations. Each scheme incorporates several assumptions related to the size distribution, shape, and fall speed relationships of ice crystals in order to simulate cold-cloud processes and resulting precipitation. Field campaign data offer a means of evaluating the assumptions present within each scheme. The Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) represented collaboration among the CloudSat, CALIPSO, and NASA Global Precipitation Measurement mission communities, to observe cold season precipitation processes relevant to forecast model evaluation and the eventual development of satellite retrievals of cloud properties and precipitation rates. During the C3VP campaign, widespread snowfall occurred on 22 January 2007, sampled by aircraft and surface instrumentation that provided particle size distributions, ice water content, and fall speed estimations along with traditional surface measurements of temperature and precipitation. In this study, four single-moment and two double-moment microphysics schemes were utilized to generate hypothetical WRF forecasts of the event, with C3VP data used in evaluation of their varying assumptions. Schemes that incorporate flexibility in size distribution parameters and density assumptions are shown to be preferable to fixed constants, and that a double-moment representation of the snow category may be beneficial when representing the effects of aggregation. These results may guide forecast centers in optimal configurations of their forecast models for winter weather and identify best practices present within these various schemes.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

Investigating the Potential of A Global Precipitation Forecast to Inform Landslide Prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infra-structure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability and Land Surface Processes

Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Koster, Randal↗

A case study on the application of geosynchronous satellite infrared data to estimate soil moisture

The use of GOES IR temperature data to estimate soil moisture content is discussed and demonstrated, modifying the procedure proposed by Wetzel et al. (1984) to provide for incorporation of independent measurements of vegetation biomass, geostrophic wind speed, and surface dewpoint. Data acquisition, processing, and the statistical approach employed are described; data for Kansas and Nebraska during a six-day period in July 1978 are analyzed; and a statistical relationship between observed surface temperature and antecedent precipitation index is established. The results are presented in tables, graphs, and maps, and the regression procedure is found to predict antecedent precipitation with statistically significant precision.

Woodward, R. H.↗

The Application of Differential Scanning Calorimetry to Investigate Precipitation Behavior in Nickel-Base Superalloys Under Continuous Cooling and Heating Conditions

In this study, a suite of experimental tools and fast-acting, numerical-simulation techniques was used to quantify the precipitation behavior of three nickel-base superalloys: IN-100, LSHR, and 718. Experimental methods comprised differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to establish the specific heat as a function of temperature and selected direct-resistance heating trials (using a Gleeble ® machine) to obtain samples for microstructural analysis. For the DSC experiments, each alloy was cooled at a prescribed constant rate (between 5 and 20 K/min) after an initial soak/equilibration in the high-temperature, single-phase (supersolvus) temperature regime. On-heating DSC trials beginning at ambient temperature were also performed on alloy 718 in three different starting conditions: super- δ -solvus solution treated and water quenched (denoted as ST), solution treated and aged (STA), and solution treated and overaged (STOA). DSC results, revealing the thermal signatures associated with the kinetics of precipitation of γ ' (IN-100, LSHR) or γ ' and γ " (718), were interpreted using a previously-developed fast-acting routine that treats concurrent nucleation, growth, coarsening, and dissolution. For these simulations, special attention was paid to various thermo-kinetic input parameters including equilibrium solvus-approach curves, bulk free energies of transformation, matrix-precipitate interface energies, and effective diffusivities. For the γ - γ ' superalloys (IN-100 and LSHR), estimates of precipitate volume fraction as a function of temperature from the specific-heat data revealed semi-quantitative agreement with simulation predictions. For the γ - γ '- γ " superalloy (718), simulation predictions of precipitate volume fractions were converted to specific heat as a function of temperature and showed semi-quantitative agreement with the direct measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Does Dynamical Downscaling Introduce Novel Information in Climate Model Simulations of Recipitation Change over a Complex Topography Region?

Current climate and future climate-warming runs with the RegCM Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 50 and 11 km-resolutions forced by the ECHAM GCM are used to examine whether the increased resolution of the RCM introduces novel information in the precipitation field when the models are run for the mountainous region of the Hellenic peninsula. The model results are inter-compared with the resolution of the RCM output degraded to match that of the GCM, and it is found that in both the present and future climate runs the regional models produce more precipitation than the forcing GCM. At the same time, the RCM runs produce increases in precipitation with climate warming even though they are forced with a GCM that shows no precipitation change in the region. The additional precipitation is mostly concentrated over the mountain ranges, where orographic precipitation formation is expected to be a dominant mechanism. It is found that, when examined at the same resolution, the elevation heights of the GCM are lower than those of the averaged RCM in the areas of the main mountain ranges. It is also found that the majority of the difference in precipitation between the RCM and the GCM can be explained by their difference in topographic height. The study results indicate that, in complex topography regions, GCM predictions of precipitation change with climate warming may be dry biased due to the GCM smoothing of the regional topography.

Tselioudis, George↗

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dislocation nano-hydrides in nickel: Nucleation, evolution and effects on dislocation behaviors

Nano-hydrides have been predicted to precipitate at the core of edge dislocations in the Ni-H system, a mechanism that may promote hydrogen embrittlement. However, nano-hydride nucleation, growth, and effects on dislocation behavior have seldom been explored. This work combines molecular dynamics grand canonical Monte Carlo (MD-GCMC) simulations and continuum modeling to uncover a wide range of phenomena linked to dislocation nano-hydrides. Simulations reveal that nano-hydrides can be stabilized at dislocation cores with all character angles, including screw segments, due to the hydrostatic stresses around the cores of the Shockley partials. Nano-hydride nucleation takes place in these regions, and growth is dictated by the character angle θ of the perfect dislocation. The equilibrium stacking fault width d eq varies dynamically to increase the local hydrostatic stress field and facilitate the formation of the nano-hydride, forming a constriction-like feature and leading to three distinct behaviors: d eq decreases for θ > 30°, d eq remains unchanged for θ = 30°, and d eq increases for θ < 30°. Remote hydrostatic and Escaig stresses are also shown to influence the nucleation stage, implying stress concentrations such as those ahead of crack tips may facilitate nano-hydride precipitation. Moreover, we identify a new hydrogen-induced 60° dislocation reaction that emits a Shockley partial on a conjugate plane, with potential implications for twin nucleation. Testable predictions from this study are then used to reinterpret previous results from the literature. In conclusion, these findings provide a comprehensive framework to assess nano-hydride formation and evolution at dislocations in nickel and other face-centered cubic metals, with important implications to hydrogen embrittlement.

Dislocations↗

“It’s Raining Bits”: Patterns in Directional Precipitation Persistence Across the United States

The spatial and temporal ordering of precipitation occurrence impacts ecosystems, streamflow, and water availability. For example, both large-scale climate patterns and local landscapes drive weather events, and the typical speeds and directions of these events moving across a basin dictate the timing of flows at its outlet. We address the predictability of precipitation occurrence at a given location, based on the knowledge of past precipitation at surrounding locations. We identify ‘‘dominant directions of precipitation influence’’ across the continental United States based on a gridded daily dataset. Specifically, we apply information theory–based measures that characterize dominant directions and strengths of spatial and temporal precipitation dependencies. On a national average, this dominant direction agrees with the prevalent direction of weather movement from west to east across the country, but regional differences reflect topographic divides, precipitation gradients, and different climatic drivers of precipitation. Trends in these information relationships and their correlations with climate indices over the past 70 years also show seasonal and spatial divides. This study expands upon a framework of information-based predictability to answer questions about spatial connectivity in addition to temporal persistence. The methods presented here are generally useful to understand many aspects of weather and climate variability.

North America↗

The initialization of a mesoscale weather prediction model using satellite and precipitation data

An analysis and initialization procedure was developed capable of utilizing mesoscale satellite and radar data to resolve features in moisture and momentum fields on a finer scale than is discernible from radiosonde observation networks. The radiosonde moisture field is enhanced, using infrared satellite imagery and precipitation data from the surface observation network (also obtainable from the radar network) while the observed mesoscale rainfall rates are also used to define the initial divergent wind component. Results show that the predicted rainfall amounts are significantly improved when these additional data are taken into account.

Tarbell, T. C.↗

Strategies for GPS-Based Estimates of Troposphere Delay

Traditionally used for high precision geodesy, the GPS system has recently emerged as an equally powerful tool in atmospheric studies, in particular, climatology and meteorology. There are several products of GPS-based systems that are of interest to climatologists and meteorologists. One of the most important is the GPS-based estimate of the amount of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) in the troposphere. Water vapor is an important variable in the study of climate changes and atmospheric convection, and is of crucial importance for severe weather forecasting and operational numerical weather prediction. In this paper we discuss various aspects of the process by which Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) are estimated from GPS data and we describe a very simple estimation stratagy for near real time applications.

GPS↗

GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) Science and Implementation Plan

The purpose of this Science and Implementation Plan is to describe GAPP science objectives and the activities required to meet these objectives, both specifically for the near-term and more generally for the longer-term. The GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) is part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) initiative that is aimed at observing, understanding and modeling the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes at various time and spatial scales. The mission of GAPP is to demonstrate skill in predicting changes in water resources over intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales, as an integral part of the climate system.

TIME SCALES↗

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An attached microalgae platform for recycling phosphorus through biologically mediated fertilizer formation and biomass cultivation

Nutrient management is a global challenge for protecting water bodies from eutrophication and for retaining and sustainably recycling phosphorus within the biosphere. This challenge is especially important for water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) in jurisdictions that limit nutrient loads in plant effluent. A microalgae-based biofilm platform has been designed, constructed, and tested to remove phosphorus and nitrogen from anaerobic digester (AD) effluent filtrate through cultivating biomass and inducing the precipitation of a mineral called struvite (NH₄MgPO₄ · 6H₂O) using a rotating algae biofilm reactor (RABR). RABRs function by rotating a growth substratum through nutrient rich water and then into the atmosphere, immersing microalgae in both sunlight and water. Photosynthesis is utilized in RABR operation to enhance struvite formation by increasing the pH value within the biofilm through the uptake of carbon dioxide from solution. Measurements of pH trended higher with depth through the biofilm when exposed to light confirming the function of photosynthesis in increasing pH and, as a consequence, struvite formation. In addition, reducing RPM allows more time for water to evaporate through exposure of the biofilm to the atmosphere and provides a management option to exceed struvite solubility product. Struvite precipitation was predicted based on chemical analysis and MINTEQ modeling of ADE, was confirmed using Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy, and quantified by determining ash content. Increase in pH within the biofilm was confirmed as photosynthetic photon flux density increased. While struvite precipitation and removal from wastewater is conventionally accomplished through physicochemical methods, this research is the first report of struvite enhanced formation through algae biofilm-based photosynthesis processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessing the large-scale drivers of precipitation in the northeastern United States via linear orthogonal decomposition

This study examines the linear orthogonal modes associated with monthly precipitation in the northeastern United States, from CESM1 LENS (35 ensemble members, 1979–2005) and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5, 1950–2018 and NOAA-CIRES-DOE 20CRv3, 1950–2015). Calendar months are aggregated together, and any linear trends in data are removed. Using region-averaged precipitation anomaly time series and monthly anomalies for several global 2D atmospheric fields, a linear orthogonal decomposition method is implemented to iteratively extract time series (based on field and geographic location) of absolute maximum correlation. Linear modes associated with this method are then projected onto the full set of 2D fields to provide physical insight into the mechanisms involved in generating precipitation. In this region, the first mode is associated with vapor transport from the Atlantic seaboard, the second mode is characterized by westward vapor transport associated with extratropical cyclones, and the third mode captures vapor transport from the Gulf of Mexico during the fall and winter. However, the third mode is less robust in the spring and summer. Results are generally consistent across the datasets, and applying multiple linear regression with the linear modes to predict the precipitation anomalies produces R-squared values of around 0.54–0.65 for CESM1 LENS, and around 0.58–0.88 for reanalysis, with the lowest values generally in the spring and late summer. The influence of low-frequency climate variability on the modes is considered for CESM1 LENS, and the modes in late winter can be predicted with some success via a combination of several, prominent large-scale teleconnection patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microstructural Characterization and Modeling of SLM Superalloy 718

Superalloy 718 is an excellent candidate for selective laser melting (SLM) fabrication due to a combination of excellent mechanical properties and workability. Predicting and validating the microstructure of SLM-fabricated Superalloy 718 after potential post heat-treatment paths is an important step towards producing components comparable to those made using conventional methods. At present, obtaining accurate volume fraction and size measurements of gamma-double-prime, gamma-prime and delta precipitates has been challenging due to their size, low volume fractions, and similar chemistries. A technique combining high resolution distortion corrected SEM imaging and with x-ray energy dispersive spectroscopy has been developed to accurately and independently measure the size and volume fractions of the three precipitates. These results were further validated using x-ray diffraction and phase extraction methods and compared to the precipitation kinetics predicted by PANDAT and JMatPro. Discrepancies are discussed in context of materials properties, model assumptions, sampling, and experimental errors.

SEM↗