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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

High Explosives and Energetics Asset Analysis Tool

The High Explosives and Energetics (HE&E) Asset Analysis Tool is a database and reference for LANL facilities, equipment, staffing and financial information pertinent to the HE&E program. The tool is used for the communication of the current state and investment planning for the program assets. Additional analyses can offer more insights into the dependencies and impacts of the assets within the HE&E portfolio. This tool is developed under collaboration with the HE&E Program Office.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data and Tools for Exploring New Pumped Storage Hydropower Deployment Opportunities

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a flexible energy storage technology with the potential to facilitate variable renewable energy integration into the decarbonized electric grid of the future. NREL is developing new data and tools to help understand opportunities for new PSH deployment, including nationwide resource assessment data, a bottom-up component-level cost model, and a lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions calculator. These datasets lay the foundation for better-informed grid planning decisions about how PSH fits into a future portfolio of generation, transmission, and storage assets.

CEM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Memo: Waste-to-Energy Potential in Guam

This memo summarizes analysis of the potential applications and associated costs of implementing waste-to-energy technologies in Guam. It examines how these systems could contribute to the island's energy portfolio by converting waste materials into usable power or heat.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

A variety of US electric power sector capacity expansion models are used by decision makers and analysts to evaluate competition among generation, transmission, and storage technologies to meeting the demands of the system. CEMs use least-cost optimization to identify optimal portfolios of investments capable of satisfying all specified requirements. While CEMs are a useful tool to inform pathways to meet future needs, projections can differ significantly between tools for apparently similar scenario assumptions. Differences in model structure, scope, and input assumption contribute to this issue. This work compares model response with harmonization between four modeling teams on issues significant to the representation and development of nuclear energy.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2020

Challenges for and Pathways Toward Solid-State Batteries

Solid-state batteries utilizing lithium metal anodes have the potential to enable batteries with a specific energy of >500 Wh/kg and an energy density of >1,500 Wh/L for thousands of cycles. When optimized they will improve the energy efficiency, operating temperature range, sustainability, and safety at a lower cost compared to projections for advanced Li-ion batteries. This improved performance is critical for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and may enable future applications such as electric aviation. Expectations for solid-state batteries are high, there are significant materials and processing challenges that need to be overcome. Some of these challenges are well known; others are more subtle and are just becoming known. The challenges and their solutions must be clearly identified to realize high-energy solid-state Li metal batteries. In the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funds the majority of energy storage research and development, including solid state battery research. Web of Science publication analysis shows that worldwide DOE is second largest funder. Work on solid state batteries is distributed across different arms of DOE and is coordinated at headquarters to ensure a broad national portfolio for advanced batteries, including lithium batteries and solid-state battery devices. We note that university and national laboratory researchers in the US with a long-standing interest in solid state batteries is a small, integrated community with recognized impact for publications, patents and startup companies. The opportunity for this group to engage for research with international colleagues is growing, fostered by periodic bilateral meetings supported by DOE and by the recent joint US German research program for lithium battery interface studies. These are valuable opportunities to speed solid-state battery development. The ORNL led virtual workshop, overviewed here, confirms the community’s shared vision of the exciting advances, opportunities, and challenges. Further, we are seeing that this workshop has spawned several new informal collaborations and draft proposals. This encourages us to propose future discussion. On May 11, 2020, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hosted a 6-hour, on-line national workshop to discuss recent advances and most the prominent obstacles to realizing solid-state Li metal batteries. The workshop included more than 30+ experts from national laboratories, universities, and companies, all of whom have worked on solid-state batteries for multiple years. The participants shared recent advances, many not yet in print, illustrating that the community has gained significant new insights for solid-state Li battery materials over the last 5 years. In this report, the major outcomes of the workshop are organized to identify the gaps in our scientific knowledge for four core materials science areas: (1) Li metal anodes, (2) the solid electrolyte in contact with Li metal, (3) active cathode materials and solid-state composite cathodes, and (4) solid electrolytes. Illustrative examples and discussions are reported with the more comprehensive issues in the report. Discussion of additional challenges related to processing of solid-state battery materials and to the designs and architectures for mechanically robust, long-lived batteries received less attention due to time constraints. These are good themes for deeper discussion at a follow-on workshop, where a complete list of critical research topics can be identified.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of regional resources and technology availability on carbon dioxide removal potential in the United States

To achieve net zero carbon emissions by mid-century, the United States may need to rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset emissions from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors and/or shortfalls in near-term mitigation efforts. CDR can be delivered using many approaches with different requirements for land, water, geologic carbon storage capacity, energy, and other resources. The availability of these resources varies by region in the U.S. suggesting that CDR deployment will be uneven across the country. Using the global change analysis model for the United States (GCAM-USA), we modeled six classes of CDR and explored their potential using four scenarios: a scenario where all the CDR pathways are available (Full Portfolio), a scenario with restricted carbon capture and storage (Low CCS), a scenario where the availability of bio-based CDR options is limited (Low Bio), and a scenario with constraints on enhanced rock weathering (ERW) capabilities (Low ERW). We find that by employing a diverse set of CDR approaches, the U.S. could remove between 1 and 1.9 GtCO 2 /yr by midcentury. In the Full Portfolio scenario, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) predominates, delivering approximately 50% of CO 2 removal, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage contributing 25%, and ERW delivering 11.5%. Texas and the agricultural Midwest lead in CDR deployment due to their abundant agricultural land and geological storage availability. In the Low CCS scenario, reliance on DACCS decreases, easing pressure on energy systems but increasing pressure on the land. In all cases CDR deployment was found to drive important impacts on energy, land, or materials supply chains (to supply ERW, for example) and these effects were generally more pronounced when fewer CDR technologies were available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Economic Evaluation of Modernization Expenditures for Electric Utility Distribution Systems: A Guide for Utility Regulators

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of potential grid modernization solutions is integral to integrated distribution system planning (IDSP). This report synthesizes and updates prior cost-effectiveness approaches identified by the U.S. Department of Energy for grid modernization investments, incorporating multi-objective decision-making. The structure of the report follows the IDSP process, from identifying objectives and priorities to prioritizing grid solutions. The report details two methods for conducting initial cost-effectiveness screening of individual and interdependent grid components: (1) Lowest Reasonable Cost and (2) Benefit-Cost Analysis. Drawing on solutions that passed the initial cost-effectiveness screen, the utility prioritizes grid solutions based on policy objectives and priorities, regulatory compliance, operational efficiencies, and other factors to develop a portfolio of distribution solutions. The utility uses multi-objective decision-making to assess each proposed expenditure against each objective and respective metric. The utility applies a weighting factor, reflecting the priority ranking of the objective, to the total numerical “score” based on the contribution of the proposed solution to addressing each objective. Ultimately, the utility ranks each expenditure from highest to lowest priority using the final score for each solution as well as its cost. The report includes examples of emerging best practices for states and utilities and a cost-effectiveness process checklist.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVs@Scale High Power Charging Pillar

Slide deck assesses a portfolio of EVs, EVSEs, and Fleets that are expected to utilize High Power Charging (>200kW) to understand charging rates, grid impacts, and asset utilization. Provide DOE, project partners, stakeholders, and the public with analysis on the capability of HPC performance of today's charging infrastructure.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Conceptual Framework to Describe Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Interactions

Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) resources provide important utility systems and ratepayer benefits. At the same time, the rapid change in the amount and type of variable renewable energy, like solar and wind, is reshaping the role and economic value of EE and DR, and will likely affect the time-dependent valuation of EE and DR measures. Utilities are increasingly interested in integrating EE and DR measures as a strategic approach to improve their collective cost-effectiveness and performance. We develop a framework to identify the EE and DR attributes, system conditions, and technological factors that are likely to drive interactions between EE and DR. We apply the framework to example measures with different technology specifics in the context of different utility system conditions. We find that EE and DR interactions are likely driven by changes in discretionary load, the addition of controls or other capabilities to shift loads, and the coincidence of savings with system peak or load building periods. Our analysis suggests increasing complexity in evaluating EE and DR interactions when moving from standalone equipment to integrated systems. The framework can be applied to research on integrated building systems by grouping measures into portfolios with different likely implications for EE and DR interactions.

Satchwell, Andrew J. (ORCID:0000000244053599)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Roadmap for Advanced Power System Measurements

Conditions in the electric power grid are changing rapidly. Changes are driven, in particular, by the increased penetration of renewable resources in the generation mix. Part of the solution to dealing with the changing conditions is the better use of measurement systems, taking advantage of the better understanding of measurements that was heralded by digital technology. Another part of the solution is the communication of samples of the directly observable voltages and currents by means of continuous point-on-wave values. The increased bandwidth capability of such a system allows more complicated measurement models to be built at the point of use. Additional measurements and analyses can then be performed. This Roadmap hinges on these two aspects of measuring: improved measurements supported by high-bandwidth (raw data) communications. Following an introduction to the overall subject, the report explores the impact of what can be thought of as the digital revolution in measurement. In essence, that revolution has served to clarify ideas about measurement and is continuing to lead to improved processes. An extensive survey of the relevant literature was performed . Webinars were held to learn from the wider community of practitioners. Based on this information, a number of gaps were identified whose continued existence would hamper the solution of the challenges now facing measurement and communication in the power grid. The underlying value propositions are interoperability (presently not very satisfactory in many measurements); greater (and less challenging) adoption of distributed energy resources; and improved international competitiveness. Underlying all that, of course, is progress toward a more reliable and resilient power system. The identified gaps were addressed in four major thrusts: technology deployment and demonstration, education, instrumentation testing and standards, and analytical methods. For each of the thrusts, multiple goals are defined to guide the implementation. The thrusts were designed to close gaps and unlock high-value use cases. After discussing the literature review, gap analysis, high-value use cases, and research thrusts in chapters 2-5, the report culminates in chapter 6 with a roadmap that links each aspect together to form a unified plan. Developing a research portfolio aligned with this plan will ensure that advanced measurement systems are in place to support reliable operation of the power system as it modernizes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Quantum Nature of the Neutrino

Over the last 100 years we have learned much about the neutrino, but there remain interesting questions about this weakly interacting particle. In particular, at LLNL we are developing an experiment to measure the quantum nature of the neutrino. The 2015 long range plan recom mended tonne-scale neutrinoless double beta decay experiments as the top new project priority and this experiment will target the quantum nature of the neutrino. The LLNL team is motivated and focused on developing the best technology for this experiment which is a liquid xenon time projection chamber called nEXO. Work on nEXO at LLNL started in 2015 with an LDRD and program development funds to de velop the nEXO concept, publish sensitivity predictions, explore alternatives and risks, and to build a credible project team and this effort is on going. In addition, we received research funding from DOE-SC NP and LLNL manages pre-conceptual R&D for the nEXO collaboration a portion of which is executed at LLNL. LLNL has a long history of building large projects, science projects and time projection chambers, but nEXO is in fact the first project of this scale that LLNL is prepared to lead for DOE-SC NP. We have the tools, skills, people and motivation to make nEXO a reality. The current program devel opment dollars are used to prepare the nEXO concept for down select and CD1. These internal LLNL dollars pay for a number of things including project staff to organize the nEXO collaboration for the various reviews, to develop the draft plans and structure to manage the project as well as setting up external advisory committees. The DOE-SC NP base funding is targeted at simulation and analysis of the nEXO concept in preparation for the down select and refinement of the under standing of the detector as well as scientific effort on the large xenon test stand (LXTS) that will burn down one of the largest risks to the nEXO project. Lastly, LLNL is leading the pre-conceptual R&D effort and managing the funds for the nEXO collaboration. LLNL continues to build the best scientific team for nEXO and this year that includes adding Ethan Bernard to lead the efforts on the LXTS. We will also soon add a new postoc, Samuel Hedges, in the fall to the LLNL nEXO team. The effort this year was influenced by the portfolio review, and there were a number of scientific activities led by LLNL to prepare for this review. In addition, we again took a lead role on the new sensitivity paper as well as publishing a paper based analyzing the effects of skin xenon in nEXO. LLNL leads the software and analysis for the project and we continued work in this area as well. High voltage remains a significant risk for the project and we continue to make progress on the LXTS that will mitigate this risk. Lastly we remain active in looking at how to scale the technology to larger scales, and expect to produce a paper on this topic in the near future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-resolution Hindcasts for U.S. Wave Energy Resource Characterization

The marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry is at an early stage of development and has the potential to play a significant role in diversifying the U.S. energy portfolio and reducing the U.S. carbon footprint. Wave energy is the largest among all the U.S. MHK energy resources, which include wave energy, ocean current, tidal-instream, ocean thermal energy conversion, and river-instream. Wave resource characterization is an essential step for regional wave energy assessments, Wave Energy Converter (WEC) project development, site selection and WEC design. The present paper provides an overview of a joint modelling effort by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories on high-resolution wave hindcasts to support the U.S. Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office’s program of wave resource characterization, assessment and classifications in all US coastal regions. Topics covered include the modelling approach, model input requirements, model validation strategies, high performance computing resource requirements, model outputs and data management strategies. Examples of model setup and validation for different regions are provided along with application to development of classification systems, and analysis of regional wave climates. Lessons learned and technical challenges of the long-term, high-resolution regional wave hindcast are discussed.

Yang, Zhaoqing↗
DOE OSTI2021

H 2 Production Pathways Cost Analysis (2016 - 2021) (Final Report)

This final report documents cost analysis conducted for the Department of Energy over a five year period (2016 to 2021) pertaining to hydrogen production and delivery system components, focusing on the key remaining challenges of the technology pathways within the Hydrogen Production and Delivery sub-program portfolio. A particular focus was placed on electrolysis for the generation of hydrogen. The effort primarily used the H2A discounted cash flow computational model as a tool to project hydrogen cost ($/kgH 2 ) and determine status improvements resulting from technology advancements. The effort also considered cost as a function of production volume, employed error bars to illustrate uncertainties in the cost estimates, and utilized sensitivity analyses to show the potential for cost reductions. The project examined a range of hydrogen production and delivery related systems. These included WireTough wire-wrapped pressure vessels for hydrogen storage, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, solid oxide electrolysis (SOE), anion exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis, photoelectrochemical (PEC) electrolysis, solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production, the cost of energy transmission, and a study on the necessary price of hydrogen to produce competitively-priced electricity via fuel cell conversion.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO 2 To CO: User Guide

This is the user guide for the tool described here: Development of technologies that convert carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into products is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Conversion Program portfolio. One such technology under development converts CO 2 to value-added products via electrochemical reduction, where catalysts are used on the cathode to promote CO 2 conversion across the electrochemical catalyst (ECC) cell. Broadly, the ECC is integrated with balance of plant (BOP) equipment (e.g., compressors, pumps, heat exchangers, purification units) in system configurations to produce the desired product. To guide research and development (R&D) toward advancements that may make such conversion technologies economically competitive, researchers may use sensitivity analyses related to the ECC system cost and performance, including that of the cathodic and anodic catalysts. This tool is intended to inform developers and Program in assessing proposed R&D on ECC systems early in the development process. Results will guide researchers on where efforts would be best directed. The tool may be accessed here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=55293cb1-6881-4181-a2b0-d00b711ce74b.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing the EVI-X National Framework to Address Emerging Questions on Charging Infrastructure Deployment

As large national investments in EV charging continue to be made, this project seeks to improve the state-of-the-art in EV infrastructure analysis. New and improved quantitative analysis capabilities will position VTO to support EERE Leadership, assist the DOT/DOE Joint Office through timely analysis, and provide a strategy for the deployment of the national charging network. This project supports on-going development of NREL's EVI-X Suite of charging infrastructure analysis tools, including tools supporting large-scale network planning, local site design decisions, and comprehensive financial analysis. EVI-X development complements and leverages other VTO-funded efforts to ensure inputs to EVI-X and output produced by EVI-X are consistent with and well-integrated into the VTO portfolio (e.g., EV adoption scenarios from TEMPO, charging infrastructure design provided to EVs@Scale, etc.).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform - 4P Model

Global momentum is building towards a circular economy capable of keeping plastics in use and out of waste streams. Given that 79% of all plastic produced since 1950 has accumulated in landfills or the natural environment,rapid implementation of various end-of-life (EoL) management technologies will be needed to reach this target. However, it can be challenging to develop an effective plastic EoL strategy when the available options - chemical or molecular recycling, energy recovery, upcycling, downcycling, closed-loop (plastic-to-plastic) or open-loop (plastic-to-x) recycling, among others - can generate products ranging from low-grade to virgin-quality plastic and from fuels to value-added chemicals. We present a flexible material flow model capable of analyzing the effects of both plastic-to-plastic and plastic-to-x EoL management strategies on the U.S. PET economy. This Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P) assesses the environmental impacts, costs, and circularity of a PET system in which waste is managed through six potential EoL pathways: landfill, incineration with energy recovery, pyrolysis to fuel oil, upcycling to glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP), mechanical recycling to low-grade PET, and chemical recycling (glycolysis) to bottle-grade PET. We compare the pathways across multiple metrics using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and then use a brute force algorithm to predict an optimal combination of EoL pathways to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs and maximize circularity. This work highlights the need to implement a diverse portfolio of EoL strategies in parallel to enable a PET economy that meets environmental, economic, and circularity requirements simultaneously.

downcycling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗