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Optimizing galaxy samples for clustering measurements in photometric surveys

When analysing galaxy clustering in multiband imaging surveys, there is a trade-off between selecting the largest galaxy samples (to minimize the shot noise) and selecting samples with the best photometric redshift (photo-$z$) precision, which generally includes only a small subset of galaxies. In this paper, we systematically explore this trade-off. Our analysis is targeted towards the third-year data of the Dark Energy Survey (DES), but our methods hold generally for other data sets. Using a simple Gaussian model for the redshift uncertainties, we carry out a Fisher matrix forecast for cosmological constraints from angular clustering in the redshift range $z$ = 0.2–0.95. We quantify the cosmological constraints using a figure of merit (FoM) that measures the combined constraints on $Ωm$ and $σ_8$ in the context of Λ cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) cosmology. We find that the trade-off between sample size and photo-z precision is sensitive to (1) whether cross-correlations between redshift bins are included or not, and (2) the ratio of the redshift bin width $δz$ to the photo-$z$ precision $σ_z$. When cross-correlations are included and the redshift bin width is allowed to vary, the highest FoM is achieved when $δz$ ~ $σ_z$. We find that for the typical case of 5-10 redshift bins, optimal results are reached when we use larger, less precise photo-z samples, provided that we include cross-correlations. For samples with higher $σ_z$, the overlap between redshift bins is larger, leading to higher cross-correlation amplitudes. This leads to the self-calibration of the photo-z parameters and therefore tighter cosmological constraints. These results can be used to help guide galaxy sample selection for clustering analysis in ongoing and future photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Optimization of Binning Parameters in the Feynman Variance-to-Mean Method for Delayed Neutron Reinterrogation

The focus of this work is to determine the optimal input parameters for analyzing active interrogation data that utilizes the physics of the delayed neutron re-interrogation technique. This work compares the signature from an active neutron measurement of a highly enriched uranium (HEU) system to an active background measurement (i.e., without the HEU item in place). The item being measured represents a 21.8 kg metal sphere of HEU (93 weight percent) assembled from a subset of the Rocky Flats (RF) uranium hemishells. The detection system consisted of two NoMAD neutron multiplicity detectors, a SNAP III neutron detector, and a Thermo Fisher P211 pulsed 14 MeV neutron source. In addition, varying analyses of the NoMAD list-mode detector data are performed to determine whether it is preferential to use a particular analysis bin size for producing Feynman histograms, selection of pulses to prevent discrepancies from buildup, or window of time during the pulsed neutron interrogation. This work is still currently ongoing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modelling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion which may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of an l(sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗

Characterization of Machine Variability and Progressive Heat Treatment in Selective Laser Melting of Inconel 718

The absence of an economy of scale in spaceflight hardware makes additive manufacturing an immensely attractive option for propulsion components. As additive manufacturing techniques are increasingly adopted by government and industry to produce propulsion hardware in human‐rated systems, significant development efforts are needed to establish these methods as reliable alternatives to conventional subtractive manufacturing. One of the critical challenges facing powder bed fusion techniques in this application is variability between machines used to perform builds. Even with implementation of robust process controls, it is possible for two machines operating at identical parameters with equivalent base materials to produce specimens with slightly different material properties. The machine variability study presented here evaluates 60 specimens of identical geometry built using the same parameters. 30 samples were produced on machine 1 (M1) and the other 30 samples were built on machine 2 (M2). Each of the 30‐sample sets were further subdivided into three subsets (with 10 specimens in each subset) to assess the effect of progressive heat treatment on machine variability. The three categories for post‐processing were: stress relief, stress relief followed by hot isostatic press (HIP), and stress relief followed by HIP followed by heat treatment per AMS 5664. Each specimen (a round, smooth tensile) was mechanically tested per ASTM E8. Two formal statistical techniques, hypothesis testing for equivalency of means and one‐way analysis of variance (ANOVA), were applied to characterize the impact of machine variability and heat treatment on six material properties: tensile stress, yield stress, modulus of elasticity, fracture elongation, and reduction of area. This work represents the type of development effort that is critical as NASA, academia, and the industrial base work collaboratively to establish a path to certification for additively manufactured parts. For future flight programs, NASA and its commercial partners will procure parts from vendors who will use a diverse range of machines to produce parts and, as such, it is essential that the AM community develop a sound understanding of the degree to which machine variability impacts material properties.

Prater, Tracie↗

Characterization of Machine Variability and Progressive Heat Treatment in Selective Laser Melting of Inconel 718

The absence of an economy of scale in spaceflight hardware makes additive manufacturing an immensely attractive option for propulsion components. As additive manufacturing techniques are increasingly adopted by government and industry to produce propulsion hardware in human-rated systems, significant development efforts are needed to establish these methods as reliable alternatives to conventional subtractive manufacturing. One of the critical challenges facing powder bed fusion techniques in this application is variability between machines used to perform builds. Even with implementation of robust process controls, it is possible for two machines operating at identical parameters with equivalent base materials to produce specimens with slightly different material properties. The machine variability study presented here evaluates 60 specimens of identical geometry built using the same parameters. 30 samples were produced on machine 1 (M1) and the other 30 samples were built on machine 2 (M2). Each of the 30-sample sets were further subdivided into three subsets (with 10 specimens in each subset) to assess the effect of progressive heat treatment on machine variability. The three categories for post-processing were: stress relief, stress relief followed by hot isostatic press (HIP), and stress relief followed by HIP followed by heat treatment per AMS 5664. Each specimen (a round, smooth tensile) was mechanically tested per ASTM E8. Two formal statistical techniques, hypothesis testing for equivalency of means and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), were applied to characterize the impact of machine variability and heat treatment on six material properties: tensile stress, yield stress, modulus of elasticity, fracture elongation, and reduction of area. This work represents the type of development effort that is critical as NASA, academia, and the industrial base work collaboratively to establish a path to certification for additively manufactured parts. For future flight programs, NASA and its commercial partners will procure parts from vendors who will use a diverse range of machines to produce parts and, as such, it is essential that the AM community develop a sound understanding of the degree to which machine variability impacts material properties.

Prater, T.↗

NASA GES DISC On-line Visualization and Analysis System for Gridded Remote Sensing Data

The ability to use data stored in the current NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) archives for studying regional or global phenomena is highly dependent on having a detailed understanding of the data's internal structure and physical implementation. Gaining this understanding and applying it to data reduction is a time-consuming task that must be undertaken before the core investigation can begin. This is an especially difficult challenge when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data sets that are usually of different formats, structures, and resolutions. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step towards meeting this challenge by developing an infrastructure with a Web interface that allows users to perform interactive analysis online without downloading any data, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides interactive, online, analysis tools for data users to facilitate their research. There have been several instances of this interface created to serve TRMM users, Aerosol scientists, Ocean Color and Agriculture applications users. The first generation of these tools support gridded data only. The user selects geophysical parameters, area of interest, time period; and the system generates an output on screen in a matter of seconds. The currently available output options are: Area plot averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area; Time plot time series averaged over any rectangular area; Hovmoller plots image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections; ASCII output for all plot types; Image animation for area plot. Another analysis suite deals with parameter intercomparison: scatter plots, temporal correlation maps, GIs-compatible outputs, etc. This allow user to focus on data content (i.e. science parameters) and eliminate the need for expensive learning, development and processing tasks that are redundantly incurred by an archive's user community. The current implementation utilizes the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS), and provides subsetting and analysis services across the Internet for any GrADS-readable dataset. The subsetting capability allows users to retrieve a specified temporal and/or spatial subdomain from a large dataset, eliminating the need to download everything simply to access a small relevant portion of a dataset. The analysis capability allows users to retrieve the results of an operation applied to one or more datasets on the server. We use this approach to read pre-processed binary files and/or to read and extract the needed parts directly from HDF or HDF-EOS files. These subsets then serve as inputs into GrADS analysis scripts. It can be used in a wide variety of Earth science applications: climate and weather events study and monitoring; modeling. It can be easily configured for new applications.

Leptoukh, Gregory G.↗

Aeroelastic Model Structure Computation for Envelope Expansion

Structure detection is a procedure for selecting a subset of candidate terms, from a full model description, that best describes the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modeling may be of critical importance in the development of robust, parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion that may save significant development time and costs. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of non-linear aeroelastic systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares with the addition of an l(Sub 1) penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional l(sub 2) minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudo-linear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. Applicability of this technique for model structure computation for the F/A-18 (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) Active Aeroelastic Wing project using flight test data is shown for several flight conditions (Mach numbers) by identifying a parsimonious system description with a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗

Mark 3 interactive data analysis system

The interactive data analysis system, a major subset of the total Mark 3 very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) software system is described. The system consists of two major and a number of small programs. These programs provide for the scientific analysis of the observed values of delay and delay rate generated by the VLBI data reduction programs and product the geophysical and astrometric parameters which are among the ultimate products of VLBI. The two major programs are CALC and SOLVE. CALC generates the theoretical values of VLBI delay rate as well as partial derivatives based on apriori values of the geophysical and astronometric parameters. SOLVE is a least squares parameters estimation program which yields the geophysical and astrometric parameters using the observed values by the data processing system and theoretical values and partial derivatives provided by CALC. SOLVE is a highly interactive program in which the user selects the exact form of the recovered parameters and the data to be accepted into the solution.

Ryan, J. W.↗

Distributive On-line Processing, Visualization and Analysis System for Gridded Remote Sensing Data

The ability to use data stored in the current Earth Observing System (EOS) archives for studying regional or global phenomena is highly dependent on having a detailed understanding of the data's internal structure and physical implementation. Gaining this understanding and applying it to data reduction is a time- consuming task that must be undertaken before the core investigation can begin. This is an especially difficult challenge when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data sets that are usually of different formats, structures, and resolutions, for example, when preparing data for input into modeling systems. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step towards meeting this challenge by developing an infrastructure with a Web interface that allows users to perform interactive analysis online without downloading any data, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides interactive, online, analysis tools for data users to facilitate their research. There have been several instances of this interface created to serve TRMM users, Aerosol scientists, Ocean Color and Agriculture applications users. The first generation of these tools support gridded data only. The user selects geophysical parameters, area of interest, time period; and the system generates an output on screen in a matter of seconds. The currently available output options are: Area plot averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area; Time plot time series averaged over any rectangular area; Time plots image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections; ASCII output for all plot types; Image animation for area plot. In the future, we will add correlation plots, GIS-compatible outputs, etc. This allow user to focus on data content (i.e. science parameters) and eliminate the need for expensive learning, development and processing tasks that are redundantly incurred by an archive's user community. The current implementation utilizes the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS), a stable, secure data server that provides subsetting and analysis services across the Internet for any GrADS-readable dataset. The subsetting capability allows users to retrieve a specified temporal and/or spatial subdomain from a large dataset, eliminating the need to download everything simply to access a small relevant portion of a dataset. The analysis capability allows users to retrieve the results of an operation applied to one or more datasets on the server. In our case, we use this approach to read pre-processed binary files and/or to read and extract the needed parts from HDF or HDF-EOS files. These subsets then serve as inputs into GrADS processing and analysis scripts. It can be used in a wide variety of Earth science applications: climate and weather events study and monitoring; modeling. It can be easily configured for new applications.

Leptoukh, G.↗

Simulation of Hydrogen Flow in a Nuclear-Thermal Propulsion Reactor Subsystem: Conjugate Heat Transfer in Surrogate Fuel Elements and Flow Through the Dome Inlet to the Fuel Elements

NASA is performing research related to a Nuclear-Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine as a step toward future manned missions to Mars. BWX Technologies (BWXT), in conjunction with NASA, is developing the reactor subsystem for that NTP engine design. As a subset of the reactor subsystem, the fuel elements have continued to evolve in design, as well. A set of experiments within the Nuclear Thermal Reactor Element Environmental Simulator at NASA Marshall has been developed to compliment that design process, including a series of surrogate fuel elements. Before the experiments of each surrogate can be completed, they must be deemed safe using structural analysis, which itself requires thermal and conjugate heat transfer analyses of the articles. Therefore, conjugate heat transfer simulations of the hydrogen flow through the test article fuel element surrogates were developed to provide estimates of heating, as well as to provide assessments of the fluid flow through the elements. The set of simulations involved not only the separate test conditions, but also a sensitivity study to estimate the effect of physical parameter uncertainty on the selected quantities of interest. Additionally, the fluid flow through the fore section inner plenum dome to the entrances of the fuel elements, another section of the reactor subsystem still under active development, was simulated and analyzed. The simulations show the extent of non-uniformity in the mass flow distribution across the dome outlets. Furthermore, additional analyses estimate the effects of required flow blockages on the potential development of flow dynamics. These analyses were used in the design cycle to make improvements to the reactor subsystem design.

Kalen E. Braman↗

8760-Based Method for Representing Variable Generation Capacity Value in Capacity Expansion Models: Preprint

Capacity expansion models (CEMs) are widely used to evaluate the least-cost portfolio of electricity generators, transmission, and storage needed to reliably serve demand over the evolution of many years or decades. Various CEM formulations are used to evaluate systems ranging in scale from states or utility service territories to national or multi-national systems. CEMs can be computationally complex, and to achieve acceptable solve times, key parameters are often estimated using simplified methods. In this paper, we focus on two of these key parameters associated with the integration of variable generation (VG) resources: capacity value and curtailment. We first discuss common modeling simplifications used in CEMs to estimate capacity value and curtailment, many of which are based on a representative subset of hours that can miss important tail events or which require assumptions about the load and resource distributions that may not match actual distributions. We then present an alternate approach that captures key elements of chronological operation over all hours of the year without the computationally intensive economic dispatch optimization typically employed within more detailed operational models. The updated methodology characterizes the (1) contribution of VG to system capacity during high load and net load hours, (2) the curtailment level of VG, and (3) the potential reductions in curtailments enabled through deployment of storage and more flexible operation of select thermal generators. We apply this alternate methodology to an existing CEM, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). Results demonstrate that this alternate approach provides more accurate estimates of capacity value and curtailments by explicitly capturing system interactions across all hours of the year. This approach could be applied more broadly to CEMs at many different scales where hourly resource and load data is available, greatly improving the representation of challenges associate with integration of variable generation resources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Flow Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) Wind Plant Power Production Data Sets

This dataset contains turbine- and plant-level power outputs for 252,500 cases of diverse wind plant layouts operating under a wide range of yawing and atmospheric conditions. The power outputs were computed using the Gaussian wake model in NREL's FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model, version 2.3.0. The 252,500 cases include 500 unique wind plants generated randomly by a specialized Plant Layout Generator (PLayGen) that samples randomized realizations of wind plant layouts from one of four canonical configurations: (i) cluster, (ii) single string, (iii) multiple string, (iv) parallel string. Other wind plant layout parameters were also randomly sampled, including the number of turbines (25-200) and the mean turbine spacing (3D-10D, where D denotes the turbine rotor diameter). For each layout, 500 different sets of atmospheric conditions were randomly sampled. These include wind speed in 0-25 m/s, wind direction in 0 deg.-360 deg., and turbulence intensity chosen from low (6%), medium (8%), and high (10%). For each atmospheric inflow scenario, the individual turbine yaw angles were randomly sampled from a one-sided truncated Gaussian on the interval 0 deg.-30 deg. oriented relative to wind inflow direction. This random data is supplemented with a collection of yaw-optimized samples where FLORIS was used to determine turbine yaw angles that maximize power production for the entire plant. To generate this data, a subset of cases were selected (50 atmospheric conditions from 50 layouts each for a total of additional 2,500 cases) for which FLORIS was re-run with wake steering control optimization. The IEA onshore reference turbine, which has a 130 m rotor diameter, a 110 m hub height, and a rated power capacity of 3.4 MW was used as the turbine for all simulations. The simulations were performed using NREL's Eagle high performance computing system in February 2021 as part of the Spatial Analysis for Wind Technology Development project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. The data was collected, reformatted, and preprocessed for this OEDI submission in May 2023 under the Foundational AI for Wind Energy project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office. This dataset is intended to serve as a benchmark against which new artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning (ML) tools may be tested. Baseline AI/ML methods for analyzing this dataset have been implemented, and a link to their repository containing those models has been provided. The .h5 data file structure can be found in the GitHub repository under explore_wind_plant_data_h5.ipynb.

AI↗

On the minimum number of radiation field parameters to specify gas cooling and heating functions

Fast and accurate approximations of gas cooling and heating functions are needed for hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We use machine learning to analyze atomic gas cooling and heating functions in the presence of a generalized incident local radiation field computed by Cloudy. We characterize the radiation field through binned radiation field intensities instead of the photoionization rates used in our previous work. We find a set of 6 energy bins whose intensities exhibit relatively low correlation. We use these bins as features to train machine learning models to predict Cloudy cooling and heating functions at fixed metallicity. We compare the relative SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value importance of the features. From the SHAP analysis, we identify a feature subset of 3 energy bins (0.5-1, 1-4, and 13-16Ry) with the largest importance and train additional models on this subset. We compare the mean squared errors and distribution of errors on both the entire training data table and a randomly selected 20% test set withheld from model training. The machine learning models trained with 3 and 6 bins, as well as 3 and 4 photoionization rates, have comparable accuracy everywhere, with errors ≳10 times smaller than for the interpolation table of Gnedin and Hollon (2012). We conclude that 3 energy bins (or 3 analogous photoionization rates: molecular hydrogen photodissociation, neutral hydrogen HI, and fully ionized carbon CVI) are sufficient to characterize the dependence of the gas cooling and heating functions on our assumed incident radiation field model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the minimum number of radiation field parameters to specify gas cooling and heating functions

Fast and accurate approximations of gas cooling and heating functions are needed for hydrodynamic galaxy simulations. We use machine learning to analyze atomic gas cooling and heating functions computed by Cloudy in the presence of a generalized incident local radiation field. We characterize the radiation field through binned radiation field intensities instead of the photoionization rates used in our previous work. We find a set of 6 energy bins whose intensities exhibit relatively low correlation. We use these bins as features to train machine learning models to predict Cloudy cooling and heating functions at fixed metallicity. We compare the relative SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) value importance of the features. From the SHAP analysis, we identify a feature subset of 3 energy bins ($0.5-1, 1-4$, and $13-16 \, \mathrm{Ry}$) with the largest importance and train additional models on this subset. We compare the mean squared errors and distribution of errors on both the entire training data table and a randomly selected 20% test set withheld from model training. The machine learning models trained with 3 and 6 bins, as well as 3 and 4 photoionization rates, have comparable accuracy everywhere, with errors $\gtrsim 10$ times smaller than for the interpolation table of Gnedin and Hollon (2012). We conclude that 3 energy bins (or 3 analogous photoionization rates: molecular hydrogen photodissociation, neutral hydrogen HI, and fully ionized carbon CVI) are sufficient to characterize the dependence of the gas cooling and heating functions on our assumed incident radiation field model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parsimonious Potential Energy Surface Expansions Using Dictionary Learning with Multipass Greedy Selection

Potential energy surfaces fit with basis set expansions have been shown to provide accurate representations of electronic energies and have enabled a variety of high-accuracy dynamics, kinetics, and spectroscopy applications. The number of terms in these expansions scales poorly with system size, a drawback that challenges their use for systems with more than similar to 10 atoms. A solution is presented here using dictionary learning. Subsets of the full set of conventional basis functions are optimized using a newly developed multipass greedy regression method inspired by forward and backward selection methods from the statistics, signal processing, and machine learning literatures. Here, the optimized representations have accuracies comparable to the full set but are 1 or more orders of magnitude smaller, and notably, the number of terms in the optimized multipass greedy expansions scales approximately linearly with the number of atoms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structure Computation of Quiet Spike[Trademark] Flight-Test Data During Envelope Expansion

System identification or mathematical modeling is used in the aerospace community for development of simulation models for robust control law design. These models are often described as linear time-invariant processes. Nevertheless, it is well known that the underlying process is often nonlinear. The reason for using a linear approach has been due to the lack of a proper set of tools for the identification of nonlinear systems. Over the past several decades, the controls and biomedical communities have made great advances in developing tools for the identification of nonlinear systems. These approaches are robust and readily applicable to aerospace systems. In this paper, we show the application of one such nonlinear system identification technique, structure detection, for the analysis of F-15B Quiet Spike(TradeMark) aeroservoelastic flight-test data. Structure detection is concerned with the selection of a subset of candidate terms that best describe the observed output. This is a necessary procedure to compute an efficient system description that may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. Structure computation as a tool for black-box modeling may be of critical importance for the development of robust parsimonious models for the flight-test community. Moreover, this approach may lead to efficient strategies for rapid envelope expansion, which may save significant development time and costs. The objectives of this study are to demonstrate via analysis of F-15B Quiet Spike aeroservoelastic flight-test data for several flight conditions that 1) linear models are inefficient for modeling aeroservoelastic data, 2) nonlinear identification provides a parsimonious model description while providing a high percent fit for cross-validated data, and 3) the model structure and parameters vary as the flight condition is altered.

Kukreja, Sunil L.↗

Informed total-error-minimizing priors: Interpretable cosmological parameter constraints despite complex nuisance effects

While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗