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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Accelerating Ocean-Based Renewable Energy Educational Opportunities to Achieve a Clean Energy Future

The United Nations has named 2021–2030 the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development with goals to 'strengthen the international cooperation needed to develop the scientific research and innovative technologies that can connect ocean science with the needs of society' (IOC 2019 The science we need for the ocean we want: the United Nations decade of ocean science for sustainable development (2021–2030) (Paris) p 24). Important actions that have been identified in support of sustainable development goals include capacity-building, training, and education. This includes educational opportunities for ocean-based renewable energy development in support of a healthy planet and ocean. Offshore wind is experiencing rapid development globally and, while the U.S. offshore wind market is still nascent, it is on the brink of exponential growth based on large cost reductions driven largely by European development and technology advances. Growth is also expected in wave and tidal energy with significant opportunities identified for various distributed markets through the Powering the Blue Economy™ initiative, with longer-term implications for expansion at the utility scale (LiVecchi et al 2019 Powering the blue economy; exploring opportunities for marine renewable energy in maritime markets p 207). In order to expedite progress and maximize benefits to the national, state, and local economies, these development actions will require a broad, diverse, and appropriately trained workforce. The ocean-based renewable energy workforce needs engineers and scientists to develop cost-effective technologies, as well as trade and maritime workers to eventually deploy the technologies at scale. In the United States, educational institutions, state governments, and private developers are taking action to understand job skills and capability requirements and to develop educational and training programs to meet offshore workforce needs; most are focused on offshore wind power, with gaining interest in marine energy. This article explores the workforce requirements of the growing ocean-based renewable energy industry and the current state of education and training programs to meet those requirements in order to identify gaps and make recommendations for further workforce development activities and initiatives. An international view needs to be adopted that incorporates the education and skill needs of early-stage marine energy technologies and evolving offshore wind technologies together with more market-ready offshore renewable energy markets. By accelerating educational development opportunities in ocean-based renewable energy, these growing blue economy markets can deliver significant economic and social benefits.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-13011-DND

Features of Doppler Wind Lidar - Works by aerosols in atmosphere reflecting light from a pulsed laser beam. - Allows wind measurements from a long distance—offshore wind can be probed from an onshore location. - Laser beam wavelength (2-μm) creates no hazard for the human eye. - NASA lidar technology is unique in laser pulse energy and capability for long-range wind measurements. - Engineered into compact enclosure with unattended operation. - Rugged enough to be flown on research aircraft into hurricanes. - Poised for technology transfer for commercial development.

Grady Koch↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Fields in Category 1–3 Tropical Cyclones Are Not Fully Represented in Wind Turbine Design Standards

Abstract Offshore wind energy deployment in the U.S. is expected to increase in the years to come, with proposed wind farm sites located in regions with high risk for tropical cyclones. Yet, the wind turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission for extreme events may not account for wind field characteristics unique to tropical cyclones. To evaluate if current design standards capture the extreme conditions of these storms, we perform idealized large‐eddy simulations of three tropical cyclones (one Category 1, one Category 2, and one Category 3 storms) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Wind conditions near the eyewall of Cat‐1, Cat‐2, and Cat‐3 storms can exceed current design standards for offshore wind turbines. Winds at 90 m can be faster than outlined in the design criteria for Class I and Class T turbines for 50‐year recurrence periods. Wind speed shear across the turbine rotor layer is also larger than assumed in design specifications. Moreover, vertical variations in wind direction across the turbine rotor layer are large for tropical cyclones of all intensity levels, suggesting design standards should include veer, which can amplify loads in wind turbines. The existence of hurricane wind field characteristics that are not represented in design standards does not imply that damage or failure will certainly occur. Engineering safety factors incorporated in the design of the turbine's blades and structural components may prevent damage from occurring.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2011

The topics include: 1) Distributed Aerodynamic Sensing and Processing Toolbox; 2) Collaborative Supervised Learning for Sensor Networks; 3) Hazard Detection Software for Lunar Landing; 4) Onboard Nonlinear Engine Sensor and Component Fault Diagnosis and Isolation Scheme; 5) Network-Capable Application Process and Wireless Intelligent Sensors for ISHM; 6) Interface Supports Multiple Broadcast Transceivers for Flight Applications; 7) FPGA Sequencer for Radar Altimeter Applications; 8) Miniature Sapphire Acoustic Resonator - MSAR; 9) Process-Hardened, Multi-Analyte Sensor for Characterizing Rocket Plume Constituents; 10) SAD5 Stereo Correlation Line-Striping in an FPGA; 11) Hybrid Composite Cryogenic Tank Structure; 12) Nanoscale Deformable Optics; 13) Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component; 14) Zinc Oxide Nanowire Interphase for Enhanced Lightweight Polymer Fiber Composites; 15) Plasma Igniter for Reliable Ignition of Combustion in Rocket Engines; 16) Wire Test Grip Fixture; 17) A Sub-Hertz, Low-Frequency Vibration Isolation Platform; 18) Carbon Nanofibers Synthesized on Selective Substrates for Nonvolatile Memory and 3D Electronics; 19) Nanoparticle/Polymer Nanocomposite Bond Coat or Coating; 20) High-Resolution Wind Measurements for Offshore Wind Energy Development; 21) Spring Tire; 22) Marsviewer 2008; 23) Mission Services Evolution Center Message Bus; 24) Major Constituents Analysis for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor; 25) Astronaut Health Participant Summary Application; 26) Adaption of the AMDIS Method to Flight Status on the VCAM Instrument; 27) Natural Language Interface for Safety Certification of Safety-Critical Software; 28) Cryogenic Caging for Science Instrumentation; 29) Wide-Range Neutron Detector for Space Nuclear Applications; 30) In Situ Guided Wave Structural Health Monitoring System; 31) Multiplexed Energy Coupler for Rotating Equipment; 32) Attitude Estimation in Fractionated Spacecraft Cluster Systems; 33) Full Piezoelectric Multilayer-Stacked Hybrid Actuation/Transduction Systems; 34) Active Flow Effectors for Noise and Separation Control; 35) Method and System for Temporal Filtering in Video Compression Systems; 36) Apparatus for Measuring Total Emissivity of Small, Low-Emissivity Samples; 37) Multiple-Zone Diffractive Optic Element for Laser Ranging Applications; 38) Simplified Architecture for Precise Aiming of a Deep-Space Communication Laser Transceiver; 39) Two-Photon-Absorption Scheme for Optical Beam Tracking; 40) High-Sensitivity, Broad-Range Vacuum Gauge Using Nanotubes for Micromachined Cavities; 41) Wide-Field Optic for Autonomous Acquisition of Laser Link; 42) Extracting Zero-Gravity Surface Figure of a Mirror; 43) Modeling Electromagnetic Scattering From Complex Inhomogeneous Objects; 44) Visual Object Recognition and Tracking of Tools; 45) Method for Implementing Optical Phase Adjustment; 46) Visual SLAM Using Variance Grid Maps; 47) Rapid Calculation of Spacecraft Trajectories Using Efficient Taylor Series Integration; 48) Efficient Kriging Algorithms; 49) Predicting Spacecraft Trajectories by the WeavEncke Method; 50) An Augmentation of G-Guidance Algorithms; 51) Comparison of Aircraft Icing Growth Assessment Software; 52) Silicon-Germanium Voltage-Controlled Oscillator at 105 GHz; 53) Estimation of Coriolis Force and Torque Acting on Ares-1; 54) Null Lens Assembly for X-Ray Mirror Segments; and 55) High-Precision Pulse Generator.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering the Blue Economy: Foundational Research and Development

With increased use of the oceans for transportation, extraction of food, fibre, and minerals, recreation and tourism, and other blue economy industries, there is a need for additional power at sea. In the face of climate change, the increased power must come from renewable sources; often marine energy is the most energy-dense power source available. But we have little experience with adapting wave and tidal devices from large scale grid power to the specialized and small devices needed to power blue economy applications, nor the engineering solutions to support codesign of emerging marine industries. As directed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), two DOE national laboratories have developed foundational research and development projects to replace conventional power or batteries at sea (ocean observation platforms), emerging industry power needs (offshore aquaculture operations), as well as examining common challenges for using marine power (efficient power systems, minimizing interference, optimizing materials and manufacturing).

marine energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

OC6 project Phase IV: validation of numerical models for novel floating offshore wind support structures

Abstract. This paper provides a summary of the work done within Phase IV of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project, under International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme Task 30. This phase focused on validating the loading on and motion of a novel floating offshore wind system. Numerical models of a 3.6 MW horizontal-axis wind turbine atop the TetraSpar floating support structure were compared using measurement data from a 1:43-Froude-scale test performed in the University of Maine's Alfond Wind–Wave (W2) Ocean Engineering Laboratory. Participants in the project ran a series of simulations, including system equilibrium, surge offsets, free-decay tests, wind-only conditions, wave-only conditions, and a combination of wind and wave conditions. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the aerodynamic loading, floating support structure motion, tower base loading, mooring line tensions, and keel line tensions. The results show a relatively good estimation of the aerodynamic loading and a reasonable estimation of the platform motion and tower base fore–aft bending moment. However, there is a significant dispersion in the dynamic loading for the upwind mooring line. Very good agreement was observed between most of the numerical models and the experiment for the keel line tensions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Undersea applications of dexterous robotics

The revolution and application of dexterous robotics in the undersea energy production industry and how this mature technology has affected planned SSF dexterous robotic tasks are examined. Undersea telerobotics, or Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV's), have evolved in design and use since the mid-1970s. Originally developed to replace commercial divers for both planned and unplanned tasks, they are now most commonly used to perform planned robotic tasks in all phases of assembly, inspection, and maintenance of undersea structures and installations. To accomplish these tasks, the worksites, the tasks themselves, and the tools are now engineered with both the telerobot's and the diver's capabilities in mind. In many cases, this planning has permitted a reduction in telerobot system complexity and cost. The philosophies and design practices that have resulted in the successful incorporation of telerobotics into the highly competitive and cost conscious offshore production industry have been largely ignored in the space community. Cases where these philosophies have been adopted or may be successfully adopted in the near future are explored.

Gittleman, Mark M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind Energy Accomplishments & Midyear Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2022

2022 marks 43 years of innovation through the National Wind Technology Center at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Flatirons Campus. Scientists, engineers, analysts, and researchers continue to build on NREL's legacy of innovation at this world-class hub for wind energy technology research and development. Today, the nation's goals to tackle climate change and revitalize the U.S. economy through increased investment in clean energy - particularly in land-based, offshore, and distributed wind energy - are more ambitious than ever. From advancing wind energy science, technologies, and materials to demonstrating thought leadership on a worldwide scale, NREL's Wind Energy Program played a powerful role in maximizing the impact of wind energy in the first half of Fiscal Year (FY) 2022. NREL's technical expertise, research capabilities, and industry understanding continued to support DOE's efforts to champion clean energy, addressing market and deployment barriers and driving down costs with more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL made on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners between October 1, 2021, and March 31, 2022.

accomplishments↗
DOE OSTI2023

HydroChrono: An Open-Source Hydrodynamics Package for Project Chrono

In this paper we present the development and verification of HydroChrono, a hydrodynamics package for the Project Chrono physics engine. This package includes the implementation of hydrodynamics equations, the added mass for multibody systems, the development of I/O functions as well as a Python API, and comparison against standard reference cases and other existing tools. HydroChrono provides a flexible, fully open-source solution for simulating wave energy converters (WECs), floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) platforms, and other hydrodynamic systems. Here we show, via comparisons with existing tools for benchmark verification cases, that HydroChrono accurately models hydrodynamic forces - making it a useful tool for the design and optimization of these systems. Additionally, the integration of HydroChrono with Project Chrono offers access to finite element modeling capabilities and high-fidelity modelling - with Chrono's existing coupling to CFD and SPH codes. This provides numerical modelers with a multifidelity simulation framework for designing and validating these systems. The development of HydroChrono provides a new, open-source solution for simulating hydrodynamic systems. Its compatibility with other simulation tools enables a more streamlined and efficient design process, advancing the field and providing new opportunities for innovation in this area.

BEM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational capacity in hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation applied to simulate the dynamic response of floating offshore wind turbines

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) mitigates similitude distortions in model-scale tests of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) by coupling physical experiments with numerical models in real time. The coupling requires faster-than-real-time numerical computations to satisfy temporal similitude with the physical experiment, presenting a bottleneck for using more complex numerical models in RTHS. This paper presents a hydrodynamic-RTHS (hydro-RTHS) framework for FOWTs that simulates the hydrodynamics physically and the aerodynamics numerically with sensor feedback from the physical testing. The framework adapts the three-loop hardware architecture to leverage greater computational resources and mitigate strict temporal requirements, enabling more computationally demanding numerical analyses in hydro-RTHS. The three-loop hardware architecture integrates multiple machines, each dedicated to either numerical analysis or RTHS controls, with a rate-transition algorithm to synchronize the tasks executed across the different machine processors. Virtual and physical tests verified and validated the hydro-RTHS framework, respectively. The ”virtual” tests, which approximates the physical domain numerically, verified the RTHS framework with respect to a numerical full-scale complete FOWT model simulated in the open-source software, OpenFAST. The virtual tests were able to maintain comparable control signals while enabling greater computational resources for the numerical calculations. Real-world physical tests demonstrated that the hydro-RTHS framework computes aerodynamic forces similar to the complete OpenFAST model, validating the hydro-RTHS framework using the three-loop hardware architecture. Findings show that the hydro-RTHS framework with the three-loop hardware architecture is computationally efficient, with reserve capacity to simulate more complex problems due to the customized software, hardware, and rate-transition algorithm.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Outcomes of the DOE Workshop on Atmospheric Challenges for the Wind Energy Industry

The U.S. Department of Energy-funded Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling (MMC) project team planned and conducted a virtual Workshop on Atmospheric Challenges for the Wind Energy Industry on October 19 and 20, 2020. The goal of the workshop was to forge a dialog with the community, including industry representatives, on how modeling tools are currently being used, the present active atmospheric modeling research in support of wind energy, and required advancements in capabilities and technology to continue to advance wind energy deployment. The workshop was planned in collaboration with an industry advisory panel that included representatives from wind power plant developers, turbine manufacturers, and companies that provide resource assessment and forecasting services. The format of the workshop included panels from government research sponsors, visionaries from industry, and mixed panels of researchers discussing research status and needs. A shared keynote presentation from the Technical University of Denmark experts anchored the second day of the workshop. An emphasis was placed on understanding the research needs in the offshore environment. In addition, breakout opportunities were provided each day. On the first day, the breakout discussions addressed predesigned questions configured to elicit participants’ thoughts on needed research directions. The second-day breakouts treated three important technical topics through a combination of presentations and group conversations. Each workshop participant chose their breakout preference from among downscaling details, modeling for turbines, and using artificial intelligence for atmospheric modeling. The discussions were robust and productive. The outcomes of the workshop include archiving a series of recommendations from industry and the research community on research directions required to further advance wind energy deployment. Discussions confirmed the need for high-fidelity modeling but that there are specific areas of applicability and other areas where the time and cost of computation is prohibitive. In those cases, the high-fidelity models can inform low-order models that are more practical for real-time or widely deployed applications. Industry must consider the financial cost of performing more expensive modeling approaches, but industry engineers and researchers are using these approaches where there appears to be a return on investment. An emerging type of low-order model is based on machine learning (ML). Participants confirmed that there are many atmospheric phenomena that need to be modeled better, including low-level jets, cold air outbreaks, land-sea induced circulations, diurnal variability, thin stable boundary layers, dynamic changes such as from frontal passage, interaction of wakes and blockage, and more. For the offshore environment, there is wide agreement that some level of ocean-wave-atmospheric coupling is necessary to capture variations in rotor-level winds needed to plan and operate offshore wind plants. Another recurring recommendation is that more observations are needed, particularly for the offshore environment. Those observations should consider the needs for model improvement, both for physically based models and for ML models. Observations must capture atmospheric profiles of variables that are important to understanding and modeling atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that impact boundary layer winds. Models must be validated with data and the uncertainty quantified, particularly those that are sensitive to initial and boundary conditions. Finally, a repeated request was to consider the holistic needs of hybrid plants of wind, solar, and storage resources because those types of plants are likely to be the wave of the future. In addition, industry wishes to understand impacts of the resource under a changing climate for long-term planning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1973

California coast nearshore processes study

The author has identified the following significant results. Large scale sediment plumes from intermittent streams and rivers form detectable seasonal patterns on ERTS-1 imagery. The ocean current systems, as plotted from three California coast ERTS mosaics, were identified. Offshore patterns of sediment in areas such as the Santa Barbara Channel are traceable. These patterns extend offshore to heretofore unanticipated ranges as shown on the ERTS-1 imagery. Flying spot scanner enhancements of NASA tapes resulted in details of subtle and often invisible (to the eye) nearshore features. The suspended sediments off San Francisco and in Monterey Bay are emphasized in detail. These are areas of extremely changeable offshore sediment transport patterns. Computer generated contouring of radiance levels resulted in maps that can be used in determining surface and nearsurface suspended sediment distribution. Tentative calibrations of ERTS-1 spectral brightness against sediment load have been made using shipboard measurements. Information from the combined enhancement and interpretation techniques is applicable to operational coastal engineering programs.

Pirie, D. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an open-source segmented blade design tool

As wind turbines continue to grow ever larger to reduce the cost of energy, their blades follow suit, with the largest commercial offshore blades extending past 100 m. Massive blades such as these raise key transportation and manufacturing challenges, especially for land-based turbines. Segmented blades are one solution and are garnering increased industry and research interest. In this work, a detailed mechanical joint model is integrated into the Wind-Plant Integrated System Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM ® ), which will facilitate future segmented blade research and optimization. WISDEM is used to design a wind turbine with 100-m segmented blades. This wind turbine design is compared to other machines with 100-m monolithic blades designed for rail-transportability. The designs are compared in terms of blade mass and cost, turbine capital cost, annual energy production, and levelized cost of energy, with monolithic designs being the lightest and most economical. However, this result may vary by wind plant location. A variety of segmentation joint types exist, and they will inevitably vary in parameters such as cost, spanwise location, and physical characteristics. This work examines the sensitivity of wind turbine design drivers and annual energy production to a variety of the aforementioned parameters, using the open-source wind turbine design codes OpenFAST and WISDEM, finding that joint mass, stiffness, and location can have significant effects on design drivers.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of free vortex wake and blade element momentum results against large-eddy simulation results for highly flexible turbines under challenging inflow conditions

Abstract. Throughout wind energy development, there has been a push to increase wind turbine size due to the substantial economic benefits. However, increasing turbine size presents several challenges, both physically and computationally. Modeling large, highly flexible wind turbines requires highly accurate models to capture the complicated aeroelastic response due to large deflections and nonstraight blade geometries. Additionally, the development of floating offshore wind turbines requires modeling techniques that can predict large rotor and tower motion. Free vortex wake methods model such complex physics while remaining computationally tractable to perform key simulations necessary during the turbine design process. Recently, a free vortex wake model – cOnvecting LAgrangian Filaments (OLAF) – was added to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's engineering tool OpenFAST to allow for the aerodynamic modeling of highly flexible turbines along with the aero-hydro-servo-elastic response capabilities of OpenFAST. In this work, free vortex wake and low-fidelity blade element momentum (BEM) results are compared to high-fidelity actuator-line computational fluid dynamics simulation results via the Simulator fOr Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) method for a highly flexible downwind turbine for varying yaw misalignment, shear exponent, and turbulence intensity conditions. Through these comparisons, it was found that for all considered quantities of interest, SOWFA, OLAF, and BEM results compare well for steady inflow conditions with no yaw misalignment. For OLAF results, this strong agreement with the SOWFA results was consistent for all yaw misalignment values. The BEM results, however, deviated significantly more from the SOWFA results with increasing absolute yaw misalignment. Differences between OLAF and BEM results were dominated by the yaw misalignment angle, with varying shear exponent and turbulence intensity leading to more subtle differences. Overall, OLAF results were more consistent than BEM results when compared to SOWFA results under challenging inflow conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Going beyond BEM with BEM: an insight into dynamic inflow effects on floating wind turbines

Blade element momentum (BEM) theory is the backbone of many industry-standard wind turbine aerodynamic models. To be applied to a broader set of engineering problems, BEM models have been extended since their inception and now include several empirical corrections. These models have benefitted from decades of development and refinement and have been extensively used and validated, proving their adequacy in predicting aerodynamic forces of horizontal-axis wind turbine rotors in most scenarios. However, the analysis of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) introduces new sets of challenges, especially if new-generation large and flexible machines are considered. In fact, due to the combined action of wind and waves and their interaction with the turbine structure and control system, these machines are subject to unsteady motion and thus unsteady inflow on the wind turbine's blades, which could put BEM models to the test. Consensus has not been reached on the accuracy limits of BEM in these conditions. This study contributes to the ongoing research on the topic by systematically comparing four different aerodynamic models, ranging from BEM to computational fluid dynamics, in an attempt to shed light on the unsteady aerodynamic phenomena that are at stake in FOWTs and whether BEM is able to model them appropriately. Simulations are performed on the UNAFLOW 1:75 scale rotor during imposed harmonic surge and pitch motion. Experimental results are available for these conditions and are used for baseline validation. The rotor is analyzed in both rated operating conditions and low wind speeds, where unsteady aerodynamic effects are expected to be more pronounced. Results show that BEM, despite its simplicity, can adequately model the aerodynamics of FOWTs in most conditions if augmented with a dynamic inflow model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Offshore Infrastructure Integrity

Drilling in the offshore environment involves a complex network of infrastructure including pipelines, platforms, rigs, subsea installations, ports, and terminals. Government and industry partners have developed this network over many decades and it remains a critical part of the United States (U.S.) energy portfolio. Many of the major components of this system have been designed with a 20- to 30-year lifespan, yet consistent and growing energy demands support the need to extend the design life of existing infrastructure or repurpose it for secondary needs (i.e. enhanced oil recovery, carbon storage, and new wells). As a result, a growing portion of the offshore infrastructure in the U.S. is approaching or has exceeded its original design life. A critical step in ensuring the continued safe and effective operation of offshore infrastructure is developing a comprehensive understanding of the state of offshore infrastructure and the factors that effect it. The purpose of this project is to assess the current state of existing infrastructure and identify the factors involved in infrastructure degradation through the development and application of big data analytics, machine learning, and advanced spatio-temporal analysis. The project leverages existing data at NETL and combines it with new information on offshore oil and gas structures and the ambient offshore environment in an effort to identify patterns associated with infrastructure integrity. Building on the identified trends and patterns, this project incorporates exploratory analytics and spatial analysis tools in conjunction with machine learning and statistical models to characterize the condition of existing platforms in the offshore environment and predict their risk of failure.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗