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At least 109 records · Page 6

Sequential Kalman tuning of the t -preconditioned Crank-Nicolson algorithm: efficient, adaptive and gradient-free inference for Bayesian inverse problems

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) has been proposed as an efficient method for the approximate solution of Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models. However, when applied to the Bayesian inverse problem EKI is only exact in the regime of Gaussian target measures and linear forward models. Here, in this work we propose embedding EKI and Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion, its normalizing flow (NF) preconditioned variant, within a Bayesian annealing scheme as part of an adaptive implementation of the t-preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (tpCN) sampler. The tpCN sampler differs from standard pCN in that its proposal is reversible with respect to the multivariate t-distribution. The more flexible tail behaviour allows for better adaptation to sampling from non-Gaussian targets. Within our Sequential Kalman Tuning (SKT) adaptation scheme, EKI is used to initialize and precondition the tpCN sampler for each annealed target. The subsequent tpCN iterations ensure particles are correctly distributed according to each annealed target, avoiding the accumulation of errors that would otherwise impact EKI. We demonstrate the performance of SKT for tpCN on three challenging numerical benchmarks, showing significant improvements in the rate of convergence compared to adaptation within standard SMC with importance weighted resampling at each temperature level, and compared to similar adaptive implementations of standard pCN. The SKT scheme applied to tpCN offers an efficient, practical solution for solving the Bayesian inverse problem when gradients of the forward model are not available. Code implementing the SKT schemes for tpCN is available at https://github.com/RichardGrumitt/KalmanMC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Superconducting microwave cavities and qubits for quantum information systems

Superconducting microwave cavities featuring ultrahigh Q-factors, which measure the efficiency of energy storage in relation to energy loss in a system, are revolutionizing quantum computing by providing long coherence times exceeding 1 ms, crucial for the development of scalable multi-qubit quantum systems with low error rates. Here, in this work, we provide an in-depth analysis of recent advances in ultrahigh Q-factor cavities, integration of Josephson junction-based qubits, and bosonic-encoded qubits in 3D cavities. We examine the sources of quantum state dephasing caused by damping and noise mechanisms in cavities and qubits, highlighting the critical challenges that need to be addressed to achieve even higher coherence times. We critically survey the latest progress made in implementing single 3D qubits using superconducting materials, normal metals, and multi-qubit and multi-state quantum systems. Our work sheds light on the promising future of this research area, including novel materials for cavities and qubits, modes with nontrivial topological properties, error correction techniques for bosonic qubits, and new light–matter interaction effects.

3D printing↗

SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force

The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well–known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential influences of Earth’s Coriolis force on shear–wave polarization measurements by conducting 3D numerical simulations for elastic waves generated by earthquake and explosive sources in a radially symmetric, and 3D mantle and crustal models. The Coriolis force can produce polarization anomalies of mantle shear waves up to 7° and core phases, such as SKS and SKKS, up to 4°. Uncorrected shear–wave polarizations due to the Coriolis force can cause an additional source of error (5°–10° in fast direction, and 0.2–0.3 s delay time depending on the method and seismic phase), inaccurate interpretation of station misalignments, and imprecise estimates of the core–mantle boundary topography. We show how to correct for the Coriolis force on teleseismic shear waves using 1D ray tracing for well–isolated phases. Here, we recommend the use of full waveform simulations to accurately account for earthquake sources parameters, poorly isolated phases that could include interfering phase arrivals within the measurement time window, and the effect of the Coriolis force on the polarizations of shear waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

Worldwide benchmarking of cost-effective radiometers for direct and diffuse irradiance

Solar energy projects can benefit from direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) measurements during all project phases. Several commercial measurement systems for DNI and DHI are available. Sun trackers with pyranometers and pyrheliometers can provide highly accurate measurements but are often impractical in solar energy applications. For less expensive and more robust sensors, it is often unclear which accuracy can be expected under a project site's specific atmospheric conditions. We address this challenge through our dedicated experimental comparison of relevant sensor systems (rotating shadowband irradiometer [short RSI], Delta-T SPN1, EKO MS-90, PyranoCam, Sunto CaptPro, Kipp & Zonen CSD3) at up to six sites worldwide. The RSI systems (rRMSD 3 to 8.6%, DNI; 4.8 to 7.6%, DHI) and PyranoCam (rRMSD 2.6 to 5.2%, DNI; 4.4 to 5.8%, DHI) exhibit similar error metrics and are the most accurate systems in the test. Delta-T SPN1 and EKO MS-90 (rRMSD 6.8 to 15%, DNI; 10.6 to 20.1%, DHI) but especially Kipp & Zonen CSD3 and Sunto CaptPro show significant deviations (rRMSD 17.7 to 20%, DNI; 33 to 58%, DHI). We evaluate the influence of relevant atmospheric parameters on the sensors' accuracies by a rather unique measurement setup. MS-90's DNI errors depend on DNI itself, with overestimations for low reference DNI. The deviations of SPN1's DHI and DNI measurements increase sharply in situations with high circumsolar irradiance. Also CaptPro and CSD3's increased measurement errors are related to circumsolar irradiance. For RSI and PyranoCam, only moderate influences on the measurements are identified, indicating a general applicability of these instruments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Correlated $\ n-γ$ angular distributions from the $\ Q$ = 4.4398 MeV 12 C ($\ n, n' γ$) reaction for incident neutron energies from 6.5 MeV to 16.5 MeV

Neutron scattering cross sections and angular distributions represent one of the most glaring sources of uncertainty in calculations of nuclear systems. Even simple nuclei like 12 C show indications of errors in nuclear databases for scattering reactions. Measurements of inelastic neutron scattering have historically measured either the scattered neutrons or the nuclear deexcitation $\ γ$ emission. Only a very small number of experiments attempted correlated measurements of both the neutron and $\ γ$ data simultaneously, even though these $\ n-γ$ correlations could be essential for understanding particle transport in nuclear systems. In this work we describe a measurement of the $\ n, γ$, and correlated $\ n-γ$ angular distributions from the $\ Q$ = 4.4398 MeV 12 C ($\ n, n'γ$) reaction in a single experiment using an EJ-309 liquid scintillator detector array with wide angular coverage, and with a continuous incident neutron energy range from 6.5 to 16.5 MeV. We also provide a thorough covariance description of these results, including normalization of the probability distribution. While the measured n distributions agree well with the relatively large number of available literature measurements, there are comparatively very few measurements of the γ distributions from this reaction. However, our data support the presence of a nonzero α 4 Legendre polynomial component of the γ angular distribution suggested in past measurements, which is currently not incorporated in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library despite the use of these same literature data for evaluation of the 12 C ($\ n, n'γ$) cross section. The correlated $\ n-γ$ distribution measurements are limited to three measurements at incident neutron energies near 14 MeV. Our results do not generally agree with any of these literature measurements. We observe clear indications of significant changes in the $\ n$ distribution for specific $\ γ$-detection angles and vice versa especially near thresholds for other reaction channels, which shows the potential for significant bias in experiments that, for example, tag on inelastic scattering using a single or small number of $\ γ$ -detection angles and could impact particle transport calculations.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

The effective number of parameters in kernel density estimation

We devise a new formula for measuring the effective degrees of freedom (EDoF) in kernel density estimation (KDE). Starting from the orthogonal polynomial sequence (OPS) expansion for the ratio of the empirical to the oracle density, we show how convolution with the kernel leads to a new OPS with respect to which one may express the resulting KDE. The expansion coefficients of the two OPS systems can then be related via a kernel sensitivity matrix, which leads to a natural oracle definition of EDoF through the trace operator. Asymptotic properties of the (empirical) plug-in EDoF are worked out through influence functions, and connections with other empirical EDoFs are established. Minimization of Kullback-Leibler divergence is investigated as an alternative to integrated squared error based bandwidth selection rules, yielding a new normal scale rule. The methodology, which arises from a proper oracle formulation and is not restricted to convolution kernels, suggests the possibility of a new bandwidth selection rule based on an information criterion such as AIC.

bandwidth selection↗

Quantum Complexity of the Kronecker Coefficients

Whether or not the Kronecker coefficients of the symmetric group count some set of combinatorial objects is a longstanding open question. In this work we show that a given Kronecker coefficient is proportional to the rank of a projector that can be measured efficiently using a quantum computer. In other words a Kronecker coefficient counts the dimension of the vector space spanned by the accepting witnesses of a QMA verifier, where QMA is the quantum analogue of NP . This implies that approximating the Kronecker coefficients to within a given relative error is not harder than a certain natural class of problems that captures the complexity of estimating thermal properties of quantum many-body systems. A second consequence is that deciding positivity of Kronecker coefficients is contained in QMA , complementing a recent NP -hardness result of Ikenmeyer, Mulmuley, and Walter. We obtain similar results for the related problem of approximating row sums of the character table of the symmetric group. Finally, we discuss an efficient quantum algorithm that approximates normalized Kronecker coefficients to inverse-polynomial additive error. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reconciling Chord Length Distributions and Area Distributions for Fields of Fractal Cumulus Clouds

While the total cover of broken cloud fields can in principle be obtained from one-dimensional measurements, the cloud size distribution normally differs between two-dimensional (area) and one-dimensional retrieval (chord length) methods. In this study, we use output from high-resolution Large Eddy Simulations to generate a transfer function between the two. We retrieve chord lengths and areas for many clouds, and plot the one as a function of the other, and vice versa. We find that the cloud area distribution conditional on the chord length behaves like a gamma distribution with well-behaved parameters, with a mean μ=1.1L and a shape parameter β=L−0.645. Using this information, we are able to generate a transfer function that can adjust the chord length distribution so that it comes much closer to the cloud area distribution. Our transfer function improves the error in predicting the mean cloud size, and is performs without strong biases for smaller sample sizes. However, we find that the method is still has difficulties in accurately predicting the frequency of occurrence of the largest cloud sizes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aboveground woody biomass estimation of young bioenergy plantations of Populus and its hybrids using mobile (backpack) LiDAR remote sensing

Woody aboveground biomass (AGB) including short-rotation Populus is used as a feedstock for renewable and carbon-neutral bioenergy. While woody AGB can be estimated with allometric equations requiring labor-intensive field data, remote sensing technologies like mobile terrestrial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) can estimate woody AGB quickly and accurately. Therefore, the goals of this study were to develop a model to predict woody AGB of 2-year-old Populus spp. from three taxa (P. deltoides, P. deltoides × P. maximowiczii and P. deltoides × P. trichocarpa) using allometric (height and diameter at breast height (DBH)) or LiDAR-derived metrics from a mobile terrestrial (backpack) system. Likewise, we sought to compare LiDAR-estimated tree height and DBH with field-measured values. We found that a taxa-specific model containing LiDAR-measured tree height, crown volume, and taxa interactions with the height of the 10 th percentile, and the density of the lowest interval (density metric 0) explained 84 % of the variation in woody AGB with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 28.7 % and performed slightly better than the allometric model. The best model excluding taxa had a slightly higher RMSE but lower bias than the allometric model. LiDAR-derived tree heights were highly correlated with field-measured heights, but DBH could not be estimated accurately. Therefore, terrestrial mobile LiDAR systems can accurately estimate woody AGB and tree height of Populus in short rotation systems to aid in the fast and efficient quantification of woody bioenergy production and renewable energy resources.

AGB↗

Simulating large one-dimensional neutral-atom quantum systems

While abstract models of quantum computation assume a closed system of two-level states, practical quantum devices inevitably couple to the environment in some way, creating sources of noise. Understanding the tolerance to noise of specific quantum algorithms run on specific devices is important for determining the feasibility of quantum computing in the current noisy intermediate-scale quantum era. Of particular interest is understanding the noise sensitivity of these devices as more qubits are added to the system. Classical simulations are a useful tool to understand the effects of this noise, but direct classical simulations of open quantum systems are burdened by an exponentially growing cost in the number of qubits and a large local Hilbert space dimension. For onedimensional, shallow circuits, using tensor networks can replace this exponential cost with a linear one and simulate far wider systems than what would normally be available. In this paper, we describe a tensor network simulation of a neutral atom quantum system under the presence of noise, while introducing a purity-preserving truncation technique that compromises between the simplicity of the matrix product state and the positivity of the matrix product density operator. We apply this simulation to a near-optimized iteration of the quantum approximate optimization algorithm on a transverse field Ising model in order to investigate the influence of large system sizes on the performance of the algorithm. We find that while circuits with a large number of qubits fail more often under noise that depletes the qubit population, their outputs on a successful measurement are just as robust under Rydberg atom dissipation or qubit dephasing as smaller systems. However, such circuits might not perform as well under coherent multiqubit errors such as Rydberg atom crosstalk. We also find that the optimized parameters are especially robust to noise, suggesting that a noisier quantum system can be used to find the optimal parameters before switching to a cleaner system for measurements of observables.

Allen, James↗

Automatically generated model for light alkene combustion

Light alkenes are common combustion intermediates for a variety of fuels. Therefore, understanding their oxidation and pyrolysis chemistry is key to building detailed mechanisms for heavier fuels. This work was focused on the development and evaluation of a detailed kinetic mechanism suitable for the combustion of light alkenes up to C 4 without the use of tuned parameters, instead, the parameter values come from first principles or direct measurements. The generated mechanism accurately estimates the laminar burning velocity (S u ) and ignition delay time (IDT) of light alkenes available in the literature, which represent fundamental combustion properties at a wide range of conditions. Because each parameter is thought to have a physically realistic value, not tuned to these measurements, the new model could be used as a sub-mechanism in models for other applications. The reaction network was generated with the open-source Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) software. Sensitivity analyses were performed under wide ranges of temperatures and pressures, allowing for the identification of the most impactful species and reactions. Based on these, a comprehensive thermochemistry database, including calculations on 550 molecules performed in this work at the CBS-QB3 level of theory, and a kinetic library, including theoretically-derived reaction rates retrieved from the literature, were built and used in the mechanism generation. The developed mechanism was compared against several existing detailed kinetic mechanisms for ethene, propene, 1-butene, 2-butene, and isobutene. Here, the newly generated model is the most accurate among the ones analyzed, in terms of fractional bias and normalized mean square error. Hence, this new model was used to analyze the chemistry of alkene combustion. Key rate coefficients were compared, to identify the cause of deviations between the models and possible areas for further improvements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Adsorption of terbium (III) on DGA and LN resins: Thermodynamics, isotherms, and kinetics

Two commercially available extraction chromatography (EXC) resins containing N,N,N’,N’-tetra-n-octyldiglycolamide (DGA Resin, Normal, 50 – 100 μm) and Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate (LN Resin, 100 – 150 μm) were used as adsorbents to study fundamental adsorption properties such as thermodynamic values, equilibrium isotherms, and kinetic uptake models for terbium(III) adsorption. Weight distribution ratios (D w ) for terbium on DGA and LN resins were measured using a [ 160 Tb]Tb 3+ radiometric tracer in nitric acid as a function of acidity, temperature, initial analyte concentration, and equilibrium time. The D w values showed increasing binding affinity for DGA resin at high nitric acid concentrations and decreasing binding affinity for LN resins. Thermodynamic studies for DGA and LN resins revealed that the Gibbs free energy (ΔG) increased consistently with temperature. To model equilibrium data, increasingly higher parameter equilibrium isotherm models (Henry (1) < Langmuir, Freundlich (2) < Redlich-Peterson (3) < Fritz-Schluender (4)) were compared on their root mean squared errors (RMSE) and adjusted determination coefficients to determine the most applicable model. In all cases, the empirical four-parameter Fritz-Schluender isotherm demonstrated a superior fit. Similar comparisons for reaction-based kinetic models (Pseudo-first-order < Pseudo-second-order < Pseudo-n-order) revealed that the higher-order PNO model yielded a superior fit of kinetic data for both resins. Furthermore, in some cases, adsorption isotherms and kinetic models could also be modeled by a lower-order model with minimal change in error parameters. Weber-Morris plots revealed that two linear sections are observed for each resin, where the first linear segment is attributed to fast (film diffusion) adsorption of terbium, followed by slower intraparticle diffusion of terbium through the pores as the rate-limiting step. Based on the Weber-Morris plot, both film and intraparticle diffusion are involved in controlling the kinetic rate of adsorption for DGA and LN resins.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

The good, the bad, and the ugly: Data-driven load profile discord identification in a large building portfolio

Reducing the overall energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector is essential for meeting our future sustainability goals. Recently, smart energy metering facilities have been deployed to enable monitoring of energy consumption data with hourly or subhourly temporal resolution. This unprecedented data collection has created various opportunities for advanced data analytics involving load profiles (e.g., building energy benchmarking programs, building-to-grid integration, and calibration of urban-scale energy models). These applications often need preprocessing steps to detect daily load profile discords, such as: 1) outliers due to system malfunctions (the bad) and 2) irregular energy consumption patterns, such as those resulting from holidays (the ugly) compared to normal consumption patterns (the good). However, current preprocessing methods predominantly focus on filtering using statistical threshold values, which fail to capture the contextual discords of daily profiles. In addition, discord detection algorithms in building research are often aimed at finding individual building-level discords, which are not suitable at a large scale. Thus, here, we develop a method for automated load profile discord identification (ALDI) in a large portfolio of buildings (more than 100 buildings). Specifically, ALDI 1) uses the matrix profile (MP) method to quantify the similarities of daily subsequences in time series meter data, 2) compares daily MP values with typical-day MP distributions using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and 3) identifies daily load profile discords in a large building portfolio. We evaluate ALDI using the metering data of both an academic campus and a residential neighborhood. Our results demonstrate that ALDI efficiently discovers measurement errors by system malfunctions and low energy consumption days in the academic campus portfolio, and it detects unique load shape patterns likely driven by occupant behavior and extreme weather conditions in the residential neighborhood.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Customer outcomes in Pay-As-You-Save programs

We review the energy and financial outcomes of households participating in several programs based on successive versions of the Pay As You Save¯ (PAYS¯) system. PAYS¯ programs offer non-debt financing for energy efficiency (and sometimes other technologies) in residential buildings through a tariff attached to the home’s utility meter, designed to be offset by project savings. We find that the five programs we study generally serve customers living in zip codes with levels of income and education below the national average and unemployment rates above the national average, demonstrating their potential to improve equity in energy efficiency adoption. Using weather-normalized analysis of energy consumption data, we show that most customers of Midwest Energy’s program reduce annual electricity and gas consumption, averaging 15% and 26% reductions respectively. Changes in energy consumption calculated using this method represent a combination of project effects and changes in occupant behavior. These results are similar to existing analyses of PAYS¯ programs in North Carolina, Arkansas, and Tennessee. About half of participating Midwest households generate sufficient energy cost savings to cover their monthly tariff. Various factors, including changes in occupant behavior, program error, causes independent of the customer or program, or some combination thereof may explain lower-than-expected cost reductions in some projects. Given the inherent variability in annual household electricity consumption, we feel these programs are enabling energy efficiency improvements and their attendant co-benefits, including occupant health and comfort and reduced carbon emissions, while reasonably balancing energy savings and tariff costs. Pairing PAYS¯ with additional financial assistance, as well as promoting cost-effective measures such as air and duct sealing, could further broaden program participation by enabling additional projects to meet PAYS¯ program eligibility rules.

Deason, Jeff↗

Empirical Validation of UBEM: An Assessment of Bias in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago

Residential and commercial buildings currently account for 30% of total global final energy consumption. Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) can enable scalable investments and unlock building improvements by quantifying energy, demand, emissions, and cost reductions of specific measures or packages for building-specific technologies in large geographic regions. While the sophistication of UBEM data sources and technologies have increased dramatically in the past decade, there remains a knowledge gap for empirical validation and sources of bias between building-specific energy models and measured data at varying geographic scales.As UBEM continues to develop, systemic analysis of accuracy, bias, and limitations of the resulting models is necessary to inform best practices and move toward standardization. These are characterized for the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite with an initial case study involving metered electricity consumption data from 247,188 buildings in Chicago, Illinois, USA - averaged across years 2019-2021 - compared to the following datasets: (1) the AutoBEM-generated nation-scale Model America version 2 (MAv2) data for 596,064 buildings, (2) tax assessor data for 579,829 buildings, (3) tax assessor data filled with MAv2, and (4) 102 representative dynamic archetypes. The accuracy is reported for every building type and vintage combination, along with multiple sources of bias for unique building descriptors. The AutoBEM simulation workflow produced energy consumption estimates that closely match aggregated metered electricity consumption data for different types of buildings constructed during various time periods at the city scale - with initial normalized mean bias error of 10.9%, and 1.1% after removing outliers. Contribution of statistically significant factors including building type, land use, age, and size to variance in UBEM bias is quantified.

Garg, Ankur↗

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗