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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

The Tethered Moon

A reasonable initial condition on Earth after the Moonforming impact is that it begins as a hot global magma ocean1,2. We therefore begin our study with the mantle as a liquid ocean with a surface temperature on the order of 3000- 4000 K at a time some 100-1000 years after the impact, by which point we can hope that early transients have settled down. A 2nd initial condition is a substantial atmosphere, 100-1000 bars of H2O and CO2, supplemented by smaller amounts of CO, H2, N2, various sulfur-containing gases, and a suite of geochemical volatiles evaporated from the magma. Third, we start the Moon with its current mass at the relevant Roche limit. The 4th initial condition is the angular momentum of the Earth-Moon system. Canonical models hold this constant, whilst some recent models begin with considerably more angular momentum than is present today. Here we present a ruthlessly simplified model of Earth's cooling magmasphere based on a full-featured atmosphere and including tidal heating by the newborn Moon. Thermal blanketing by H2O-CO2 atmospheres slows cooling of a magma ocean. Geochemical volatiles - chiefly S, Na, and Cl - raise the opacity of the magma ocean's atmosphere and slow cooling still more. We assume a uniform mantle with a single internal (potential) temperature and a global viscosity. The important "freezing point" is the sharp rheological transition between a fluid carrying suspended crystals and a solid matrix through which fluids percolate. Most tidal heating takes place at this "freezing point" in a gel that is both pliable and viscous. Parameterized convection links the cooling rate to the temperature and heat generation inside the Earth. Tidal heating is a major effect. Tidal dissipation in the magma ocean is described by viscosity. The Moon is entwined with Earth by the negative feedback between thermal blanketing and tidal heating that comes from the temperature-dependent viscosity of the magma ocean. Because of this feedback, the rate that the Moon's orbit evolves is limited by the modest radiative cooling rate of Earth's atmosphere, which in effect tethers the Moon to the Earth. Consequently the Moon's orbit evolves orders of magnitude more slowly than in conventional models. Slow orbital evolution promotes capture by orbital resonances that may have been important in the Earth-Moon system

Earth-Moon system↗
NASA NTRS2014

Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

ice dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2016

Sex-Specific Effects of Unpredictable Variable Prenatal Stress: Implications for Mammalian Developmental Programming During Spaceflight

During adaptation to the microgravity environment, adult mammals experience stress mediated by the Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal axis. In our previous studies of pregnant rats exposed to 2-g hypergravity via centrifugation, we reported decreased corticosterone and increased body mass and leptin in adult male, but not female, offspring. In this study, we utilized Unpredictable Variable Prenatal Stress to simulate the stressors of spaceflight by exposing dams to different stressors. Stress response modulation occurs via both positive and negative feedback in the hypothalamus, anterior pituitary gland, and adrenal cortex resulting in the differential release of corticosterone (CORT), a murine analog to human cortisol.

Prenatal Stress↗
NASA NTRS2017

Fuzzy Logic Controller Stability Analysis Using a Satisfiability Modulo Theories Approach

While many widely accepted methods and techniques exist for validation and verification of traditional controllers, at this time no solutions have been accepted for Fuzzy Logic Controllers (FLCs). Due to the highly nonlinear nature of such systems, and the fact that developing a valid FLC does not require a mathematical model of the system, it is quite difficult to use conventional techniques to prove controller stability. Since safety-critical systems must be tested and verified to work as expected for all possible circumstances, the fact that FLC controllers cannot be tested to achieve such requirements poses limitations on the applications for such technology. Therefore, alternative methods for verification and validation of FLCs needs to be explored. In this study, a novel approach using formal verification methods to ensure the stability of a FLC is proposed. Main research challenges include specification of requirements for a complex system, conversion of a traditional FLC to a piecewise polynomial representation, and using a formal verification tool in a nonlinear solution space. Using the proposed architecture, the Fuzzy Logic Controller was found to always generate negative feedback, but inconclusive for Lyapunov stability.

Fuzzy Logic Controller↗
NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Constraining the Climate and Ocean PH of the Early Earth with a Geological Carbon Cycle Model

The early Earth's environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of the origin of life and its coevolution with the environment. Here, we use a geological carbon cycle model with ocean chemistry to calculate self-consistent histories of climate and ocean pH. Our carbon cycle model includes an empirically justified temperature and pH dependence of seafloor weathering, allowing the relative importance of continental and seafloor weathering to be evaluated. We find that the Archean climate was likely temperate (0-50deg C) due to the combined negative feedbacks of continental and seafloor weathering. Ocean pH evolves monotonically from 6.6(sup + 0.6) (sub -0.4) (2 sigma) at 4.0 Ga to 7.0(sup +0.7) (sub-0.5) (2 sigma) at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary, and to 7.9(sup +0.1) (sub -0.2) (2 sigma) at the Proterozoic-Phanerozoic boundary. This evolution is driven by the secular decline of pCO2, which in turn is a consequence of increasing solar luminosity, but is moderated by carbonate alkalinity delivered from continental and seafloor weathering. Archean seafloor weathering may have been a comparable carbon sink to continental weathering, but is less dominant than previously assumed, and would not have induced global glaciation. We show how these conclusions are robust to a wide range of scenarios for continental growth, internal heat flow evolution and outgassing history, greenhouse gas abundances, and changes in the biotic enhancement of weathering.

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua↗
NASA NTRS2017

Fuzzy Logic Controller Stability Analysis Using a Satisfiability Modulo Theories Approach

While many widely accepted methods and techniques exist for validation and verification of traditional controllers, at this time no solutions have been accepted for Fuzzy Logic Controllers (FLCs). Due to the highly nonlinear nature of such systems, and the fact that developing a valid FLC does not require a mathematical model of the system, it is quite difficult to use conventional techniques to prove controller stability. Since safety-critical systems must be tested and verified to work as expected for all possible circumstances, the fact that FLC controllers cannot be tested to achieve such requirements poses limitations on the applications for such technology. Therefore, alternative methods for verification and validation of FLCs needs to be explored. In this study, a novel approach using formal verification methods to ensure the stability of a FLC is proposed. Main research challenges include specification of requirements for a complex system, conversion of a traditional FLC to a piecewise polynomial representation, and using a formal verification tool in a nonlinear solution space. Using the proposed architecture, the Fuzzy Logic Controller was found to always generate negative feedback, but inconclusive for Lyapunov stability.

Fuzzy Logic Controller↗
NASA NTRS2016

Consequences of Prenatal Stress on Appetite Control and the Energy Expenditure Pathway

Established research has illustrated that moderate exposure to stress in the womb influences both adult phonotype and genotype for several physiological pathways, especially in males. Proposed explanations include adaptions made by the fetus resulting from a limited supply of nutrients, referred to as the thrifty phenotype. In this study, we examine this fetal programming effect on the appetite control and energy expenditure pathways in prenatally stressed adult male offspring. Subjects were male rats born from time-mated female rats exposed to unpredictable, variable prenatal stress (UVPS) throughout gestation. An analysis of the adult male rat offspring genetic expression of epididymal fat pads and the plasma concentrations of hormones involved in appetite control and energy expenditure pathways showed a significantly diminished expression of leptin and adiponectin compared to unstressed controls. Leptin and adiponectin are both major hormones involved in the appetite control and energy expenditure pathways, with leptin regulating energy balance due to its function as an inhibitor of hunger, and adiponectin modulating glucose levels and fatty acid breakdown. We observed higher leptin concentrations within the prenatally stressed male plasma, and lower expression of leptin (OB) and adiponectin (ADIPOQ) genes from the epididymal fat pads. We suggest that elevated leptin in the plasma elicited a negative feedback effect on OB expression levels, decreasing their quantification compared to control animals. Further analysis will include plasma quantification of insulin and glucose, as well as expression of ghrelin, a peptide which acts on the central nervous system and the bodys perception of hunger.

appetite control↗
NASA NTRS2021

Soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands

Global warming alters surface water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P–E) and hence freshwater resources. However, the influence of land–atmosphere feedbacks on future P–E changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture (SM) strongly impacts future P–E changes, especially in drylands, by regulating evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture inflow. Using modelling and empirical approaches, we find a consistent negative SM feedback on P–E, which may offset ~60% of the decline in dryland P–E otherwise expected in the absence of SM feedbacks. The negative feedback is not caused by atmospheric thermodynamic responses to declining SM; rather, reduced SM, in addition to limiting evapotranspiration, regulates atmospheric circulation and vertical ascent to enhance moisture transport into drylands. This SM effect is a large source of uncertainty in projected dryland P–E changes, underscoring the need to better constrain future SM changes and improve the representation of SM–atmosphere processes in models.

precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2013

CGILS: Results from the First Phase of an International Project to Understand the Physical Mechanisms of Low Cloud Feedbacks in Single Column Models

1] CGILS-the CFMIP-GASS Intercomparison of Large Eddy Models (LESs) and single column models (SCMs)-investigates the mechanisms of cloud feedback in SCMs and LESs under idealized climate change perturbation. This paper describes the CGILS results from 15 SCMs and 8 LES models. Three cloud regimes over the subtropical oceans are studied: shallow cumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus. In the stratocumulus and coastal stratus regimes, SCMs without activated shallow convection generally simulated negative cloud feedbacks, while models with active shallow convection generally simulated positive cloud feedbacks. In the shallow cumulus alone regime, this relationship is less clear, likely due to the changes in cloud depth, lateral mixing, and precipitation or a combination of them. The majority of LES models simulated negative cloud feedback in the well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus regime, and positive feedback in the shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regime. A general framework is provided to interpret SCM results: in a warmer climate, the moistening rate of the cloudy layer associated with the surface-based turbulence parameterization is enhanced; together with weaker large-scale subsidence, it causes negative cloud feedback. In contrast, in the warmer climate, the drying rate associated with the shallow convection scheme is enhanced. This causes positive cloud feedback. These mechanisms are summarized as the "NESTS" negative cloud feedback and the "SCOPE" positive cloud feedback (Negative feedback from Surface Turbulence under weaker Subsidence-Shallow Convection PositivE feedback) with the net cloud feedback depending on how the two opposing effects counteract each other. The LES results are consistent with these interpretations

Single Column Models↗
NASA NTRS2001

Response to "The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?"

Based on radiance measurements of Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite, Lindzen et al. found that the high-level cloud cover averaged over the tropical western Pacific decreases with increasing sea surface temperature. They further found that the response of high-level clouds to the sea surface temperature had an effect of reducing the magnitude of climate change, which is referred as a negative climate feedback. Lin et al. reassessed the results found by Lindzen et al. by analyzing the radiation and clouds derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System measurements. They found a weak positive feedback between high-level clouds and the surface temperature. We have found that the approach taken by Lin et al. to estimating the albedo and the outgoing longwave radiation is incorrect and that the inferred climate sensitivity is unreliable.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗
NASA NTRS2001

Psychophysiological Control of Acognitive Task Using Adaptive Automation

The major focus of the present proposal was to examine psychophysiological variables related to hazardous states of awareness induced by monitoring automated systems. With the increased use of automation in today's work environment, people's roles in the work place are being redefined from that of active participant to one of passive monitor. Although the introduction of automated systems has a number of benefits, there are also a number of disadvantages regarding worker performance. Byrne and Parasuraman have argued for the use of psychophysiological measures in the development and the implementation of adaptive automation. While both performance based and model based adaptive automation have been studied, the use of psychophysiological measures, especially EEG, offers the advantage of real time evaluation of the state of the subject. The current study used the closed-loop system, developed at NASA-Langley Research Center, to control the state of awareness of subjects while they performed a cognitive vigilance task. Previous research in our laboratory, supported by NASA, has demonstrated that, in an adaptive automation, closed-loop environment, subjects perform a tracking task better under a negative than a positive, feedback condition. In addition, this condition produces less subjective workload and larger P300 event related potentials to auditory stimuli presented in a concurrent oddball task. We have also recently shown that the closed-loop system used to control the level of automation in a tracking task can also be used to control the event rate of stimuli in a vigilance monitoring task. By changing the event rate based on the subject's index of arousal, we have been able to produce improved monitoring, relative to various control groups. We have demonstrated in our initial closed-loop experiments with the the vigilance paradigm that using a negative feedback contingency (i.e. increasing event rates when the EEG index is low and decreasing event rates when the EEG index is high) results in a marked decrease of the vigilance decrement over a 40 minute session. This effect is in direct contrast to performance of a positive feedback group, as well as a number of other control groups which demonstrated the typical vigilance decrement. Interestingly, however, the negative feedback group performed at virtually the same level as a yoked control group. The yoked control group received the same order of changes in event rate that were generated by the negative feedback subjects using the closed-loop system. Thus it would appear to be possible to optimize vigilance performance by controlling the stimuli which subjects are asked to process.

Freeman, Frederick↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Midlatitude cyclone processes as a key to understanding climate sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) differ greatly in their shortwave cloud feedback. One feature that is consistent across GCMs is a positive shortwave cloud feedback in the subtropics, and a negative shortwave cloud feedback across the midlatitudes. Confidence has grown in the mechanisms that lead to, and the strength of, the subtropical shortwave cloud feedback, but the midlatitude negative shortwave cloud feedback is not well-constrained or well-understood. It is critical to reduce uncertainty in midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback. A more positive midlatitude shortwave cloud feedback in the sixth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) has been found to be one of the primary causes of the increased climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to CMIP5. We show that changes in midlatitude cyclones in future climates are the primary cause of the negative shortwave cloud feedback and are thus key to understanding the high climate sensitivity in the most recent GCMs. Warming-induced changes in cloud liquid water path in midlatitude cyclones can almost entirely be explained by Clausius-Clapeyron increasing moisture convergence into cyclones. One concern with simulating midlatitude cyclones is the lack of predictive skill at low resolution. A more realistic relationship between moisture flux and cyclone liquid content is found at high horizontal resolution (∆x<25km), but the cloud feedback within cyclones can be explained by increased moisture convergence across low- and high-resolution models. Observations and models agree that the extratropical shortwave cloud feedback is moderated by precipitation processes in cyclones. This rules out a large contribution from ice-to-liquid transitions, as has been hypothesized in previous studies. Understanding and constraining these precipitation processes is crucial to constraining the response of midlatitude cyclones to warming and by extension climate sensitivity.

Cyclones↗
NASA NTRS2019

Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed-Phase Microphysics and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3

We analyze the atmospheric processes that explain the large changes in radiative feed-backs between the two latest climate configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental model. We use a large set of atmosphere-only climate-change simulations (amip and amip-p4K) to separate the contributions to the differences in feedback parameter from all the atmospheric model developments between the two latest model configurations. We show that the differences are mostly driven by changes in the shortwave cloud radiative feedback in the midlatitudes, mainly over the Southern Ocean. Two new schemes explain most of the differences: the introduction of a new aerosol scheme; and the development of a new mixed-phase cloud scheme. Both schemes reduce the strength of the pre-existing shortwave negative cloud feedback in the midlatitudes. The new aerosol scheme dampens a strong aerosol-cloud interaction, and it also suppresses a negative clear-sky shortwave feedback. The mixed-phase scheme increases the amount of cloud liquid water path (LWP) in the present-day, thereby reducing the radiative effciency of the increase of LWP in the warmer climate. It also enhances a strong, pre-existing, positive cloud fraction feedback. We assess the realism of the changes by comparing present-day simulations against observations, and discuss avenues that could help constrain the relevant processes.

HadGEM3↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Burst Mode, Ultrahigh Temperature UF4 Vapor Core Reactor Rankine Cycle Space Power System Concept

Static and dynamic neutronic analyses have been performed on an innovative burst mode (100's of MW output for a few thousand seconds) Ulvahigh Temperature Vapor Core Reactor (UTVR) space nuclear power system. The NVTR employs multiple, neutronically-coupled fissioning cores and operates on a direct, closed Rankine cycle using a disk Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) generater for energy conversion. The UTVR includes two types of fissioning core regions: (1) the central Ultrahigh Temperature Vapor Core (UTVC) which contains a vapor mixture of highly enriched UF4 fuel and a metal fluoride working fluid and (2) the UF4 boiler column cores located in the BeO moderator/reflector region. The gaseous nature of the fuel the fact that the fuel is circulating, the multiple coupled fissioning cores, and the use of a two phase fissioning fuel lead to unique static and dynamic neutronic characteristics. Static neutronic analysis was conducted using two-dimensional S sub n, transport theory calculations and three-dimensional Monte Carlo transport theory calculations. Circulating-fuel, coupled-core point reactor kinetics equations were used for analyzing the dynamic behavior of the UTVR. In addition to including reactivity feedback phenomena associated with the individual fissioning cores, the effects of core-to-core neutronic and mass flow coupling between the UTVC and the surrounding boiler cores were also included in the dynamic model The dynamic analysis of the UTVR reveals the existence of some very effectlve inherent reactivity feedback effects that are capable of quickly stabilizing this system, within a few seconds, even when large positive reactivity insertions are imposed. If the UTVC vapor fuel density feedback is suppressed, the UTVR is still inherently stable because of the boiler core liquid-fuel volume feedback; in contrast, suppression of the vapor fuel density feedback in 'conventional" gas core cavity reactors causes them to become inherently unstable. Due to the strength of the negative reactivity feedback in the UTVR, it is found that external reactivity insertions alone are inadequate for bringing about significant power level changes during normal reactor operations. Additional methods of reactivity control such as variations in the gaseous fuel mass flow rate, are needed to achieve the desired power level oontrol.

Dugan, E. T.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cloud feedback - A stabilizing effect for the early earth

The effect of variations in cloud cover, optical properties, and fractional distribution with altitude on the mean surface temperature of a model of the early earth has been investigated. In all cases examined, cloud-climate feedbacks result in temperatures greater than those in models with no cloud feedbacks. If the model of hydrospheric feedback effects is correct, then cloud feedbacks are as important to the climate as changes in solar luminosity and atmospheric composition during the earth's atmospheric evolution. In particular, the early earth need not become completely ice-covered if strong negative cloud feedbacks occur. However, until a proper understanding of cloud feedbacks is available, conclusions regarding conditions in the early atmosphere must remain in doubt.

Rossow, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Observational Constraint on A Feedback From Supercooled Clouds Reduces Projected Warming Uncertainty

The increase of carbon-dioxide-doubling-induced warming (climate sensitivity) in the latest climate models is primarily attributed to a larger extratropical cloud feedback. This is thought to be partly driven by a greater ratio of supercooled liquid-phase clouds to all clouds, termed liquid phase ratio. We use an instrument simulator approach to show that this ratio has increased in the latest climate models and is overestimated rather than underestimated as previously thought. In our analysis of multiple models, a greater ratio corresponds to stronger negative cloud feedback, in contradiction with single-model-based studies. We trace this unexpected result to a cloud feedback involving a shift from supercooled to warm clouds as climate warms, which corresponds to greater cloud amount and optical depth and weakens the extratropical cloud feedback. Better constraining this ratio in climate models – and thus this supercooled cloud feedback – impacts their climate sensitivities by up to 1 ˚C and reduces inter-model spread.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
NASA NTRS2023

Non-Monotonic Feedback Dependence Under Abrupt Co2 Forcing Due to a North Atlantic Pattern Effect

Effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), commonly estimated from model simulations with abrupt 4×CO 2 for 150 years, has been shown to depend on the CO 2 forcing level. To understand this dependency systematically, we performed a series of simulations with a range of abrupt CO 2 forcing in two climate models. Our results indicate that normalized EffCS values in these simulations are a non-monotonic function of the CO 2 forcing, decreasing between 3× and 4×CO 2 in CESM1-LE (2× and 3×CO 2 in GISS-E2.1-G) and increasing at higher CO 2 levels. The minimum EffCS value, caused by anomalously negative radiative feedbacks, arises mainly from sea-surface temperature (SST) relative cooling in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This cooling is associated with the formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse under CO 2 forcing. Our findings imply that understanding changes in North Atlantic SST patterns is important for constraining near-future and equilibrium global warming.

effective climate sensitivity↗