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Quantitative resilience evaluation on recovery from emergency situations in nuclear power plants

Here, this paper mainly introduces how to develop a resilience evaluation model by quantifying the relationship between resilience and resilience components in regard to recovering from emergency situations in nuclear power plants (NPPs). It is an extension of the author’s previous researches. To develop the model, the first step was to analyze event reports published in Republic of Korea in terms of resilience factors from different safety perspectives. Second, statistical methods such as factor analysis, principal component analysis, and multivariate regression analysis were applied to the dataset to identify relations among resilience factors and develop a quantitative resilience evaluation model for recovery from emergency situations in NPPs. Third, the model was validated using the recent event report data released in Korea. Lastly, we present a discussion on how to apply the quantitative resilience evaluation model to results from stress tests performed in Korea.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Editorial: Applications of spectroscopy and chemometrics in nuclear materials analysis

Optical analysis techniques, including spectroscopy and image analysis, have many advantages when applied to the study of nuclear materials. They require small sample sizes, can be performed remotely, and can be proceduralized through consistent practice. Most importantly, they provide a wealth of information by generating multivariate data. For example, ultraviolet–visible–near-infrared absorbance spectroscopy of actinides in aqueous and organic solutions is dependent on the oxidation state, anionic complexation, and temperature. These variables are important for solution-based separation processes, and sensitivity to these factors, combined with online monitoring, can drive the efficiency and control of these processes. The morphology and chemical composition of actinide particles can also provide a vital clue to the mechanisms by which the particles were formed, providing forensic information on the origins of the particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Integrating Reanalysis and Satellite Cloud Information to Estimate Surface Downward Long-Wave Radiation

The estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at the surface is very important for the understanding of the Earth’s radiative budget with implications in surface–atmosphere exchanges, climate variability, and global warming. Theoretical radiative transfer and observationally based studies identify the crucial role of clouds in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of DLR. In this study, a new machine learning algorithm that uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and the combination of near-surface meteorological data with satellite cloud information is proposed. The new algorithm is compared with the current operational formulation used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF). Both algorithms use near-surface temperature and dewpoint temperature along with total column water vapor from the latest European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 and satellite cloud information from the Meteosat Second Generation. The algorithms are trained and validated using both ECMWF-ERA5 and DLR acquired from 23 ground stations as part of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Results show that the MARS algorithm generally improves DLR estimation in comparison with other model estimates, particularly when trained with observations. When considering all the validation data, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 18.76, 23.55, and 22.08 W·m –2 are obtained for MARS, operational LSA-SAF, and ERA5, respectively. The added value of using the satellite cloud information is accessed by comparing with estimates driven by ERA5 total cloud cover, showing an increase of 17% of the RMSE. The consistency of MARS estimate is also tested against an independent dataset of 52 ground stations (from FLUXNET2015), further supporting the good performance of the proposed model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards the extraction of the crystal cell parameters from pair distribution function profiles

The approach based on atomic pair distribution function (PDF) has revolutionized structural investigations by X-ray/electron diffraction of nano or quasi-amorphous materials, opening up the possibility of exploring short-range order. However, the ab initio crystal structural solution by the PDF is far from being achieved due to the difficulty in determining the crystallographic properties of the unit cell. A method for estimating the crystal cell parameters directly from a PDF profile is presented, which is composed of two steps: first, the type of crystal cell is inferred using machine-learning approaches applied to the PDF profile; second, the crystal cell parameters are extracted by means of multivariate analysis combined with vector superposition techniques. The procedure has been validated on a large number of PDF profiles calculated from known crystal structures and on a small number of measured PDF profiles. The lattice determination step has been benchmarked by a comprehensive exploration of different classifiers and different input data. The highest performance is obtained using the k -nearest neighbours classifier applied to whole PDF profiles. Descriptors calculated from the PDF profiles by recurrence quantitative analysis produce results that can be interpreted in terms of PDF properties, and the significance of each descriptor in determining the prediction is evaluated. The cell parameter extraction step depends on the cell metric rather than its type. Monometric, dimetric and trimetric cells have top-1 estimates that are correct 40, 20 and 5% of the time, respectively. Promising results were obtained when analysing real nanocrystals, where unit cells close to the true ones are found within the top-1 ranked solution in the case of monometric cells and within the top-6 ranked solutions in the case of dimetric cells, even in the presence of a crystalline impurity with a weight fraction up to 40%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advanced Interactive 3D Visualization Tool for Customizable Analyses of Tomography Datasets in Material Science

Current methods for visualizing and analyzing 3D tomography datasets in materials science often lack the interactivity and depth required for detailed structural insights. This limitation restricts a researchers' ability to accurately interpret complex data, which is critical for advancing material innovations and understanding structural properties. To address this issue, we have developed a novel, web-based interactive 3D visualization and analysis tool from the Trame framework that offers customizable features to enhance data interpretability. The tool allows users to adjust parameters such as visible range, slice planes, data rotation, and layering, providing a more detailed and dynamic view of complex structures. Its user-friendly web interface increases the accessibility and ease of use for both novice and experienced researchers, to visualize large volumetric datasets. The tool supports a diverse range of data formats, making it versatile for various research applications. Unique capabilities include real-time data manipulation, automated feature detection, context-sensitive feedback, and real-time volume calculations and distributions per sliced region or layer, alongside the ability to quickly generate high-quality screenshots and videos for presentations and reports. These advancements offer a comprehensive solution for enhanced 3D data exploration, significantly improving the analysis process and communication of results in materials science.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Transfer Learning-Based Independent Component Analysis

Understanding the underlying component structure is crucial for multivariate signal analysis. Among all the techniques that try to learn the latent structure, independent component analysis (ICA) is one of the most important and popular methods, which aims to extract independent components from multivariate signals and enables further analysis. For example, in electroencephalogram (EEG) analysis, artifacts filtering and disease detection are conducted based on the independent components of the signals. One critical challenge in existing ICA approaches is that the component extraction accuracy may degrade when the available data of a unit are limited. To address this issue, this paper proposes a transfer learning-based ICA method by innovatively transferring component distribution from a source domain, so that accurate component extraction results can be achieved even when only limited data are available in the target domain. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that leverages transfer learning to improve ICA accuracy with limited available data. In particular, we first extract all the independent components from the source domain by maximizing the log-likelihood function with a Newton-like method on a smooth manifold. Then for the target domain, the component with the largest negentropy is extracted in each round. To effectively leverage the knowledge from the source domain and to prevent the negative transfer, we try to find a component in the source domain that matches the component we are extracting. The probability density function of the matched component will then be used to improve the component extraction accuracy if such matched component can be found; otherwise, no knowledge will be transferred. Finally, numerical simulations and a case study with electrocardiogram (ECG) data are conducted, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method in transferring knowledge and reducing negative transfer.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Chemometrics and Experimental Design for the Quantification of Nitrate Salts in Nitric Acid: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Absorption Analysis

Implementing remote, real-time spectroscopic monitoring of radiochemical processing streams in hot cell environments requires efficiency and simplicity. The success of optical spectroscopy for the quantification of species in chemical systems highly depends on representative training sets and suitable validation sets. Selecting a training set (i.e., calibration standards) to build multivariate regression models is both time- and resource-consuming using standard one-factor-at-a-time approaches. This study describes the use of experimental design to generate spectral training sets and a validation set for the quantification of sodium nitrate (0–1 M) and nitric acid (0.1–10 M) using the near-infrared water band centered at 1440 nm. Partial least squares regression models were built from training sets generated by both D- and I-optimal experimental designs and a one-factor-at-a-time approach. The prediction performance of each model was evaluated by comparing the bias and standard error of prediction for statistical significance. D- and I-optimal designs reduced the number of samples required to build regression models compared with one-factor-at-a-time while also improving performance. Models must be confirmed against a validation sample set when minimizing the number of samples in the training set. The D-optimal design performed the best when considering both performance and efficiency by improving predictive capability and reducing number of samples in the training set by 64% compared with the one-factor-at-a-time approach. The experimental design approach objectively selects calibration and validation spectral data sets based on statistical criterion to optimize performance and minimize resources.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Temporal Analysis and Scene Change Detection in Multispectral Overhead Imagery

Scene change detection can be a tedious and time consuming process especially when concerning large geographical areas, and the process can be even more cumbersome when analyzing changes in an area over large spans of time. Developing a useful way to help analysts recognize at what points in time significant changes to a scene have occurred can allow them to better focus their efforts in characterizing events. Applications include: Facility monitoring, Construction chronology, Monitoring of vehicle/aircraft activity, Characterization of larger sequences of events. In large areas exceeding hundreds to thousands of square kilometers in size, it can be difficult localizing when scene changes have occurred. Analysts can spend hours going through imagery to try to identify new construction, monitor facility activities, monitor vehicle movement, etc. where the object of interest may only be a few square meters. Our goal is to help cut down this time by giving analysts change maps with hot spots of change, allowing them to focus on regions that have experienced actual change in time frames they're interested in. Additionally, by combining these change maps into layers within a data cube, analysts can examine the change maps from a temporal perspective, allowing events to be characterized over spans of time. By opening the data cube in an imaging software capable of separating the layers, we can analyze the change maps sequentially, allowing us to examine scene changes occurring over time. As an example, we examined overhead imagery from Planet Labs of what appears to be a parking lot on Fort Irwin over the course of a year using ENVI, a geospatial satellite imagery analysis software. Using ENVI, we generate a graph of changes over time, and notice a particular segment near the end of our analysis window where no changes are detected. Examination of the actual satellite imagery reveals that during this time span, the parking lot was empty. This could be due to facility shutdown for maintenance or upgrades, or possibly even total workforce/vehicle fleet movement. Information like this could help analysts better characterize events, as well as to help create clearer timelines in larger sequences of events. Workflow steps: - Collect multiple maps of the same AOI (Area of Interest) during a time span of interest; - Generate change maps from AOI maps; - Generate data cube from change maps. An analyst can use the data cube to help inspect an AOI for activities within a time span of interest. If an event of interest is discovered, the analyst can then refer to the maps corresponding to the appropriate dates and times in the data cube to see precisely what is transpiring. The biggest objective being worked on is improving the change detection methodology employed. We currently use PCA-EM (Principal Component Analysis with Expectation Maximization), but we are currently focusing on implementing IR-MAD (Iteratively Reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection) to be used in conjunction with PCA-EM in an effort to decrease false positivity and noise in the change maps we generate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Search for flavor changing neutral current interactions of the top quark in final states with a photon and additional jets in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search for the production of a top quark in association with a photon and additional jets via flavor changing neutral current interactions is presented. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS detector at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 . The search is performed by looking for processes where a single top quark is produced in association with a photon, or a pair of top quarks where one of the top quarks decays into a photon and an up or charm quark. Events with an electron or a muon, a photon, one or more jets, and missing transverse momentum are selected. Multivariate analysis techniques are used to discriminate signal and standard model background processes. No significant deviation is observed over the predicted background. Observed (expected) upper limits are set on the branching fractions of top quark decays: B ( t → u γ ) < 0.95 × 10 - 5 ( 1.20 × 10 - 5 ) and B ( t → c γ ) < 1.51 × 10 - 5 ( 1.54 × 10 - 5 ) at 95% confidence level, assuming a single nonzero coupling at a time. The obtained limit for B ( t → u γ ) is similar to the current best limit, while the limit for B ( t → c γ ) is significantly tighter than previous results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Data-Driven Insights into the Structural Essence of Plasticity in High-Entropy Alloys

The heterogeneous mechanical response of a crystalline alloy with multiple principal elements was investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. The local configuration of the alloy in its quiescent state was characterized by the variables derived from the gyration tensor and the atomic electronegativity. A multivariate analysis identified the geometric and chemical factors that influenced the atomic packing variations. Further, upon straining, the non-affine displacement exhibited spatial heterogeneity. A statistical correlation was established between the local yield events and the specific features of the local configuration. Our findings, validated by the performance metrics analysis, provided a structural criterion for the instability mechanisms in high-entropy alloys (HEAs) and enhanced the understanding of their plasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Circulating levels of micronutrients and risk of osteomyelitis: a Mendelian randomization study

Background Few observational studies have investigated the effect of micronutrients on osteomyelitis, and these findings are limited by confounding and conflicting results. Therefore, we conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to evaluate the association between blood levels of eight micronutrients (copper, selenium, zinc, vitamin B12, vitamin C, and vitamin D, vitamin B6, vitamin E) and the risk of osteomyelitis. Methods We performed the two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) to investigate causation, where instrument variables for the predictor (micronutrients) were derived from the summary data of micronutrients from independent cohorts of European ancestry. The outcome instrumental variables were used from the summary data of European-ancestry individuals ( n = 486,484). The threshold of statistical significance was set at p < 0.00625. Results We found a significant causal association that elevated zinc heightens the risk of developing osteomyelitis in European ancestry individuals OR = 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07, 1.43]; p = 4.26E-03]. Similarly, vitamin B6 showed a similar significant causal effect on osteomyelitis as a risk factor OR = 2.78 (95% CI [1.34, 5.76]; p = 6.04E-03; in the secondary analysis). Post-hoc analysis suggested this result (vitamin B6). However, the multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) provides evidence against the causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis OR = 0.98(95% CI [−0.11, 0.07]; p = 7.20E-1). After searching in PhenoScanner, no SNP with confounding factors was found in the analysis of vitamin B6. There was no evidence of a reverse causal impact of osteomyelitis on zinc and vitamin B6. Conclusion This study supported a strong causal association between vitamin B6 and osteomyelitis while reporting a dubious causal association between zinc and osteomyelitis.

Zhang, Xu↗

Gene expression of functionally-related genes coevolves across fungal species: detecting coevolution of gene expression using phylogenetic comparative methods

Researchers often measure changes in gene expression across conditions to better understand the shared functional roles and regulatory mechanisms of different genes. Analogous to this is comparing gene expression across species, which can improve our understanding of the evolutionary processes shaping the evolution of both individual genes and functional pathways. One area of interest is determining genes showing signals of coevolution, which can also indicate potential functional similarity, analogous to co-expression analysis often performed across conditions for a single species. However, as with any trait, comparing gene expression across species can be confounded by the non-independence of species due to shared ancestry, making standard hypothesis testing inappropriate. We compared RNA-Seq data across 18 fungal species using a multivariate Brownian Motion phylogenetic comparative method (PCM), which allowed us to quantify coevolution between protein pairs while directly accounting for the shared ancestry of the species. Our work indicates proteins which physically-interact show stronger signals of coevolution than randomly-generated pairs. Interactions with stronger empirical and computational evidence also showing stronger signals of coevolution. We examined the effects of number of protein interactions and gene expression levels on coevolution, finding both factors are overall poor predictors of the strength of coevolution between a protein pair. Simulations further demonstrate the potential issues of analyzing gene expression coevolution without accounting for shared ancestry in a standard hypothesis testing framework. Furthermore, our simulations indicate the use of a randomly-generated null distribution as a means of determining statistical significance for detecting coevolving genes with phylogenetically-uncorrected correlations, as has previously been done, is less accurate than PCMs, although is a significant improvement over standard hypothesis testing. These methods are further improved by using a phylogenetically-corrected correlation metric. Our work highlights potential benefits of using PCMs to detect gene expression coevolution from high-throughput omics scale data. This framework can be built upon to investigate other evolutionary hypotheses, such as changes in transcription regulatory mechanisms across species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data-Driven Computation of Probabilistic Marching Cubes for Efficient Visualization of Level-Set Uncertainty

Uncertainty visualization is an important emerging research area. Being able to visualize data uncertainty can help scientists improve trust in analysis and decision-making. However, visualizing uncertainty can add computational overhead, which can hinder the efficiency of analysis. In this paper, we propose novel data-driven techniques to reduce the computational requirements of the probabilistic marching cubes (PMC) algorithm. PMC is an uncertainty visualization technique that studies how uncertainty in data affects level-set positions. However, the algorithm relies on expensive Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for the multivariate Gaussian uncertainty model because no closed-form solution exists for the integration of multivariate Gaussian. In this work, we propose the eigenvalue decomposition and adaptive probability model techniques that reduce the amount of MC sampling in the original PMC algorithm and hence speed up the computations. Our proposed methods produce results that show negligible differences compared with the original PMC algorithm demonstrated through metrics, including root mean squared error, maximum error, and difference images. We demonstrate the performance and accuracy evaluations of our data-driven methods through experiments on synthetic and real datasets.

Athawale, Tushar↗

Multivariate Linear Models for In Situ Monitoring of Low-Activity Nuclear Waste Using Infrared and Raman Spectroscopy - 20218

This paper presents the use of in situ monitoring tools for molecular analysis of non-radioactive species found in the supernatant liquid and dissolvable salt cake of nuclear waste at Hanford. We have selected two in situ spectroscopic techniques that do not require any sample preparation or consumables: infrared (in the form of attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared or ATR-FTIR) and Raman spectroscopy. This work aims to evaluate their performance for liquid waste simulants representative of the Hanford DFLAW (Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste) feed. In addition, we have evaluated the performance of four multivariate linear models that extract concentrations from spectral measurements for a data set that was designed to include key molecular species found in liquid low-activity waste. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An improved Method for Determining Transient Fuel Dilution of Oil in an Internal-Combustion Engine Using Laser-Induced Florescence and Multivariate Least Square Calibration

An optical diagnostic, based on laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), has been developed for on-engine measurements of real-time fuel dilution of engine oil or fuel in oil (FIO). Fuel dilution of oil is broadly relevant to advancing engine technology including durability, calibration, and catalyst-system management, and believed to promote destructive stochastic pre-ignition (SPI) during high-load engine operations. While standard (e.g., ASTM D3524-90) methods are not capable of real-time transient measurements, the LIF technique resolves transient dilution on the minutes time scale. We have expanded on our original FIO instrument development by introducing an improved analysis based on multivariate least square chemometrics analysis. The measurement uses a fuel dye (180–1300 parts per million, by mass) and monitors for its presence in the oil using 532 nm excitation and LIF. While the original FIO instrument utilized a two-color ratio method for analysis, the improved chemometric analysis uses the fully resolved LIF dye spectra to provide better predictive FIO accuracy (>92%) over a wide FIO range (1.5–14%) typical of engine application. We also investigate the effect of oil temperature on the LIF signal. Limited engine applications for demonstrating and validating the improved FIO instrument are shown, and the related data used to quantify practical detection limit and sensitivity. The improved analysis is insensitive to laser power fluctuation and change in detector integration time, providing an excellent FIO sensitivity (1–2%) and detection limit (0.01 %FIO) over a wide range of loads and injection timings, illustrating this updated approach to be a promising tool for advancing engine technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Transcriptomic and Phosphoproteomic Analysis During Cell Wall Stress in Aspergillus nidulans

The fungal cell-wall integrity signaling (CWIS) pathway regulates cellular response to environmental stress to enable wall repair and resumption of normal growth. This complex, interconnected, pathway has been only partially characterized in filamentous fungi. To better understand the dynamic cellular response to wall perturbation, a β-glucan synthase inhibitor (micafungin) was added to a growing A. nidulans shake-flask culture. From this flask, transcriptomic and phosphoproteomic data were acquired over 10 and 120 min, respectively. To differentiate statistically-significant dynamic behavior from noise, a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model was applied to both data sets. Over 1800 genes were dynamically expressed and over 700 phosphorylation sites had changing phosphorylation levels upon micafungin exposure. Twelve kinases had altered phosphorylation and phenotypic profiling of all non-essential kinase deletion mutants revealed putative connections between PrkA, Hk-8–4, and Stk19 and the CWIS pathway. Our collective data implicate actin regulation, endocytosis, and septum formation as critical cellular processes responding to activation of the CWIS pathway, and connections between CWIS and calcium, HOG, and SIN signaling pathways.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this work, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

essential biodiversity variables↗

Comparing gas composition from fast pyrolysis of live foliage measured in bench-scale and fire-scale experiments

Background: Fire models have used pyrolysis data from oxidising and non-oxidising environments for flaming combustion. In wildland fires pyrolysis, flaming and smouldering combustion typically occur in an oxidising environment (the atmosphere). Aims: Using compositional data analysis methods, determine if the composition of pyrolysis gases measured in non-oxidising and ambient (oxidising) atmospheric conditions were similar. Methods: Permanent gases and tars were measured in a fuel-rich (non-oxidising) environment in a flat flame burner (FFB). Permanent and light hydrocarbon gases were measured for the same fuels heated by a fire flame in ambient atmospheric conditions (oxidising environment). Log-ratio balances of the measured gases common to both environments (CO, CO 2 , CH 4 , H 2 , C 6 H 6 O (phenol), and other gases) were examined by principal components analysis (PCA), canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). Key results: Mean composition changed between the non-oxidising and ambient atmosphere samples. PCA showed that flat flame burner (FFB) samples were tightly clustered and distinct from the ambient atmosphere samples. CDA found that the difference between environments was defined by the CO-CO 2 log-ratio balance. PERMANOVA and pairwise comparisons found FFB samples differed from the ambient atmosphere samples which did not differ from each other. Conclusion: Relative composition of these pyrolysis gases differed between the oxidising and non-oxidising environments. This comparison was one of the first comparisons made between bench-scale and field scale pyrolysis measurements using compositional data analysis. Implications: These results indicate the need for more fundamental research on the early time-dependent pyrolysis of vegetation in the presence of oxygen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗