Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model validation and calibration”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Strength of porous α-SiO 2 in a shock loaded environment: Calibration via Richtmyer–Meshkov instability and validation via Mach lens

The strength of brittle porous media is of concern in numerous applications, for example, earth penetration, crater formation, and blast loading. Thus, it is of importance to possess techniques that allow for constitutive model calibration within the laboratory setting. The goal of the current work is to demonstrate an experimental technique allowing for strength assessment of porous media subjected to shock loading, which can be implemented into pressure-dependent yield surfaces within numerical simulation schemes. As a case study, the deviatoric response of distended α-SiO 2 has been captured in a tamped Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) environment at a pressure regime of 4–10 GPa. Hydrocode simulations were used to interpret RMI experimental data, and a resulting pressure-dependent yield surface akin to the often employed modified Drucker–Prager model was calibrated. Simulations indicate that the resulting jet length generated by the RMI is sensitive to the porous media strength, thereby providing a feasible experimental platform capable of capturing the pressurized granular deviatoric response. Furthermore, in efforts to validate the RMI-calibrated strength model, a set of Mach-lens experiments was performed and simulated with the calibrated pressure-dependent yield surface. Excellent agreement between the resulting Mach-lens length in experiment and simulation provides additional confidence to the RMI yield-surface calibration scheme.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deterioration of concrete due to ASR: Experiments and multiscale modeling

The process of ASR (Alkali-Silica Reaction) induced expansion and damage in pavement concrete specimens is investigated using laboratory experiments and computational modeling. In the experimental program, the concrete specimens are subject to CS-CPT (climate simulation concrete prism test) to obtain ASR induced expansion with and without external supply of alkali. The dissolution rates of the granodiorite used in the concrete mix and the gel formation rates are determined under concrete-like conditions (pH 13.8, with/without Ca(OH){sub 2} and NaCl) at different temperatures. A micromechanics based computational model with aggregate-scale diffusion and reaction kinetics coupled to an Eigenstrain based micromechanics damage model is developed for the simulation of ASR induced expansion and damage. Data from the experimental program are used to calibrate and validate the computational model. Model predictions show that for the given concrete mixture, ASR induced expansion in the specimen exposed to water is predominantly governed by microcracking in the aggregate, while the expansion in the specimen subjected to external alkali supply is governed by microcracking in both the aggregates and the cement paste.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational micromechanics model based failure criteria for chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound composites

Chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound has a great potential in lightweight automotive, marine, and aerospace applications. One of the most challenging tasks is to predict the failure strength of the material due to its anisotropy and heterogeneity, as well as complex stress states in real-world working conditions. In this work, a novel constitutive model of carbon fiber chip is proposed to capture the pre- and post-failure behaviors under different loading modes. On this basis, we propose a new computational micromechanics model, which is calibrated and validated by uniaxial tensile, compressive, and in-plane shear experiments. Furthermore, a set of microstructures representative volume element (RVE) models under complex loading conditions are reconstructed to understand the relationship between the microstructure characteristics and the failure envelopes. Finally, several modified versions of classical failure criteria are proposed for anisotropic materials with consideration of the fiber orientation tensor. The modified Tsai-Wu failure criterion, which shows the best accuracy among all failure criteria, is highlighted in the comparative study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation Exercise of a Coarse Finite Element Model of Laser Welds

The objective of this project is to validate low-fidelity models of 304L to 304L stainless steel partial-penetration laser welds for thin sheets. Low-fidelity means that the weld is represented by coarsely meshed element blocks. Here, the hexahedral element size is approx imately half the weld penetration depth. The material behavior of the block is represented by a J2 plasticity model with a Voce hardening function. The source of the data used in this work is an extensive experimental study conducted by Sharlotte Kramer (1528) and published in 2015. Figure 1 shows a cross-section of the weld of interest. The nominal thickness of the sheets is 0.063 in. while the target penetration depth of the weld is in the range of 0.028 to 0.032 in., extending about half the sheet thickness. Uniaxial tension tests provided data for calibration of base material and weld models. Results of two validation geometries were also provided. The principal validation geometry is shown in Fig. 2. It consists of a plate specimen with in-plane dimensions 6 in × 2.875 in loaded in tension. A circular plug with a 1.5 in. diameter was cut from the center of the plate and then welded in place. The details of the welding schedule are given. An important assumption is that the welds in the calibration and validation specimens have similar geometric and material properties as those in the validation tests. The task was to first calibrate models for the base material and the welds and then simulate the validation tests until the point of weld first failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Batch Crystallization with Model-based Design of Experiments

Adaptive and self-optimizing intelligent systems such as digital twins are increasingly important in science and engineering. Digital twins utilize mathematical models to provide added precision to decision-making. However, physics-informed models are challenging to build, calibrate, and validate with existing data science methods. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) is a popular framework for optimizing data collection to maximize parameter precision in mathematical models and digital twins. In this work, we apply MBDoE, facilitated by the open-source package Pyomo.DoE, to train and validate mathematical models for batch crystallization. We quantitatively examined the estimability of the model parameters for experiments with different cooling rates. This analysis provides a quantitative explanation for the heuristic of using multiple experiments at different cooling rates.

Lynch, Hailey↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supplemental Data for the Manuscript: Quantification of Manganese for ChemCam Mars and Laboratory Spectra Using a Multivariate Model

This dataset includes all of the data needed to validate and/or reproduce the manganese calibration model described in the manuscript. The reference database contains metadata for the new Mn-bearing standards, minerals, and mixtures that are > 2.9 wt.% MnO. In addition, the files include the MnO composition data for all standards used, non-normalized spectral data, mean peak area spectrum, results of outlier determination, RMSECV data, regression vectors, and Test Set predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Prediction of Residual Stress in Three-Dimensional Machining

Efficient and reliable prediction of machining-induced residual stress (RS) is a key requirement for truly integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Currently available process modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical methodologies lack predictive power and require substantial calibration and validation data. Moreover, most model-based approaches consider only two-dimensional (2D) (i.e., orthogonal), cutting processes. Meanwhile, industrial processes such as milling, turning, and drilling are inherently three-dimensional (3D). The present work attempts to bridge the gap between 2D and 3D through careful consideration of the process physics, including geometric, kinematic, and size-effect constraints to realize robust prediction of how RS develops in 3D machining. Using a novel in-situ experimental technique and digital image correlation (DIC) to determine equivalent Hertzian contact widths, contact pressures, and friction coefficients, the proposed methodology leverages a discretized conversion algorithm that includes multi-pass shakedown effects. This paper presents a semi-analytical model to predict machining-induced RS in 3D turning operations, which are used representatively for 3D processes more generally. Rather than follow a ‘brute force’ 3D FEM approach or conduct countless experiments to train a purely data-driven machine learning algorithm, the proposed approach builds on previous 2D modeling work. Through careful consideration of the process physics, including complex geometry/kinematic considerations of 3D turning, the authors demonstrated an experimentally calibrated approach, as well as validation based on published RS data. Model predictions and previously published measurement data of RS depth profiles for turning of Inconel 718 were compared for a range of process parameters. Correlation between the proposed 3D model and validation data was found to be within the margin of experimental error for most conditions. The proposed model appears to capture the overall behavior of 3D RS depth profiles with acceptable accuracy, particularly the key metrics of near-surface stress, peak stress magnitude and location, as well as overall stress profile depth. This report presents a physics-informed, data-driven approach for efficient calibration of a 2D model for machining-induced RS through DIC analysis of in-situ characterized subsurface displacement fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Process Model and Open-Source Process Simulator for Microalgae-Based Tertiary Phosphorus Recovery

Microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment has the potential to meet stringent effluent phosphorus limits, with the added benefit of producing a marketable feedstock. However, the lack of validated mechanistic models and their implementation in process simulators have limited the adoption of this technology. In this study, an updated lumped pathway metabolic model (Phototrophic-Mixotrophic Process Model, PM 2 ), including both photoautotrophic and heterotrophic metabolisms of microalgae, was developed to predict effluent phosphorus concentration and biomass yield in response to dynamic influent and varying environmental conditions. The model was implemented in QSDsan – an open-source, Python-based design and simulation platform – for robust simulation under uncertainty. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to prioritize model parameters for calibration. The model was then calibrated and validated using batch experimental data and 45 days of continuous online monitoring data from a full-scale (568 m 3 ·d -1 ) microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment plant (EcoRecover process). In particular, along with dynamic influent composition, temperature and light intensity data with diel variation were provided as model inputs to reflect the microalgal behavior under day-night cycling. Overall, the QSDsan-based microalgae process simulator was able to predict effluent phosphorus within 0.02–0.04 mg-P·L -1 , while also capturing the general trends of state variables according to nutrient availability.

Lumped pathway metabolic model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2025

AWSD Reactive Burn Model for High Explosive LX‐14

ABSTRACT The results of an Arrhenius–Wescott–Stewart–Davis (AWSD) reactive flow calibration for the HMX‐based high explosive LX‐14 are presented. The parameters in the AWSD model are calibrated to experimental thermodynamic and gas gun data and to computational results from thermochemical calculations. There is no experimental rate stick data available for LX‐14; therefore, scaled experimental results from other PBX‐based high explosives are used in the calibration to fill this gap in data. Strong agreement is observed between the calibrated AWSD model and experimental data for LX‐14, including validation data that were not used in the calibration procedure. The developed model more accurately describes experimental shock‐to‐detonation results compared to several other reactive flow models for LX‐14 from the literature. The presented results illustrate that the AWSD model is capable of quantitatively describing the reactive burn of LX‐14.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of soot carbonization kinetics to deduce meaningful soot formation rates in premixed flat flames

Soot formation rates measured in fuel-rich premixed flat flames are frequently used to calibrate or validate chemical kinetic models of soot formation. Unfortunately, these flames feature an extended region of soot precursor particle inception and carbonization that complicates interpretation of soot measurements and leads to a fundamental inconsistency in the nature of the soot material that is modeled versus what is being measured when using non-intrusive, optical techniques. In the work presented here, previously reported data on two canonical sooting ethylene-air premixed flames at 1 atm pressure are interpreted via a new analysis approach that combines soot optical dispersion coefficient measurements with soot carbonization kinetics. This analytical approach explicitly accounts for the production of poorly ordered soot precursor particle mass and its carbonization over time in the flames, providing a clear distinction between the formation rate of precursor particles and their transformation into ordered, solid soot particulate mass. In particular, the results of the analysis show that the precursor particles form much earlier in the flame than the majority of the carbonized soot and their formation rate is two to three times faster than that of ordered soot. The results also show that particle agglomeration begins when the particles are at an intermediate state of carbonization. In conclusion, these results offer a valuable new interpretation of these important datasets and should lead to substantial improvements in the development and calibration of quantitative soot models.

Soot formation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating uncertain parameters in melt pool simulations of additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale numerical modeling of additive manufacturing (AM) processes can provide predictive capabilities and theoretical insight into the process-property-structure-performance relationships for AM parts. Despite capabilities of numerical models to solve complex multi-physics problems, it is often important to consider a tradeoff between detailed physics and computational cost. Therefore, sources of uncertainty in both experimental conditions and the parameters needed for modeling require models to be validated against empirical evidence. Here, a method is proposed to calibrate uncertain parameters used in continuum-scale melt pool models for powder bed fusion (PBF) AM. Both a simplified heat transfer model and a heat transfer and fluid flow model were investigated. A surrogate model and Markov chain-based optimization algorithm calibrated melt pool geometry for models within experimental variation of the target melt pool width and depth from the NIST AM-Bench 2018-02 dataset. The melt pool temperature distributions, solidification parameters, and simulated multi-layer solidification microstructures were compared between the two models. Similar results from both models indicate that calibrated, lower fidelity numerical models may be used in place of higher fidelity models to generate melt pool solidification data. Finally, these calibrated models therefore enable lower computational cost melt pool simulations without a noticeable decrease in simulation accuracy for grain-scale microstructure simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The intrinsic mechanical properties of hydromagnesite, Mg 5 (CO 3 ) 4 (OH) 2 ·4H 2 O, a key phase of reactive MgO carbonate cement

To potentially enable CO 2 sequestration, reactive MgO carbonate cement is emerging as an alternative binder to Portland cement. Understanding the mechanical properties of its binding phase is critical for understanding the strength development and performing materials design for reactive MgO cement systems; however, the intrinsic mechanical properties of hydromagnesite (Mg 5 (CO 3 ) 4 (OH) 2 ·4H 2 O), a key binding phase, remain unexplored. Here the present study utilized synchrotron-based high-pressure X-ray diffraction to determine the unit cell-scale, intrinsic mechanical properties of hydromagnesite for the first time. Up to hydrostatic loading of 7.7 GPa, the bulk modulus of hydromagnesite was determined as 59 GPa or 71 GPa fitted using the second-order or third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state, which we contextualize with binding phases in various cement systems. The experiment results are applicable in materials design of low-carbon concrete and valuable for the validation and calibration of atomistic models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗