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DOE OSTI2025

Identification Uncertainty in Inverse Material Model Parameter Determination: A Sensitivity‐Based Decision Process for Load Path Selection

This research proposes a sensitivity-based framework for selecting the optimal prescribed loading path for a biaxial cruciform specimen. Optimality here is determined by the direction and magnitude of the prescribed displacement that minimizes the influence of random noise on the material model parameter identification. Using simulated experimental data based on finite element simulation, in this work, we identify the material model parameters of a Ludwik hardening model and plane stress implementation of the Hill-48 yield criterion using finite element model updating (FEMU). Our analysis reveals that the identification (or estimator) uncertainty of model parameters depends on the displacement boundary conditions (i.e., loading sequence) and the ground-truth value of the individual parameters. Optimal experimental design (OED) criteria based on the Fisher information matrix were investigated to mitigate indecision in the choice of optimal load path when the identification uncertainty of different material model parameters optimized at different load paths. The determinant of the Fisher information matrix was chosen here as the more useful metric due to its ability to capture uncertainty of the most influential material model parameters. The proposed framework demonstrates potential for real-time automated load step selection using scalar criteria derived prior to mechanical loading. The framework can be generalized to other geometries, boundary conditions and material models, allowing this procedure to be utilized for different experimental configurations and materials.

Fayad, Samuel S. [University of Illinois at Urbana↗

DOE OSTI2020

New Oscillation Results from the NOvA Experiment

Conclusions: We present an updated neutrino oscillation analysis with: 50% more neutrino beam data, updated simulation and reconstruction, including a new GENIE 3 cross-section model, updated extrapolation which mitigates differing detector acceptances. New 3-Jlavor oscillation results: Δm²₃₂ = (2.41±0.07)×10⁻³ eV², sin²θ₂₃ = 0.57 +0.04 -0.03 , exclude IH, δ = π/2 at > 3σ, disfavor NH, δ = 3π/2 at ~2σ. Looking ahead: We can reach 3σ hierarchy sensitivity for 30-50% of δ values, with the full dataset and an upgraded beam. Plan to reduce our largest systematics, those related to detector energy scale, with the results of our test beam experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

ELM–Wet: Inclusion of a Wet–Landunit With Sub–Grid Representation of Eco–Hydrological Patches and Hydrological Forcing Improves Methane Emission Estimations in the E3SM Land Model (ELM)

Wetlands are the largest emitters of biogenic methane (CH 4 ) and represent the highest source of uncertainty in global CH 4 budgets. Here, we aim to improve the realism of wetland representation in the U.S. Department of Energy's Exascale Earth System Model land surface model, ELM, thereby reducing uncertainty of CH 4 flux predictions. We develop an updated version, ELM-Wet, where we activate a separate landunit for wetlands that handles multiple wetland-specific eco-hydrological patch functional types. We introduce more realistic hydrological forcing through prescribing site-level constraints on surface water elevation, which allows resolving different sustained inundation depth for different patches, and if data exists, prescribing inundation depth. We modified the calculation of aerenchyma transport diffusivity based on observed conductance per leaf area for different vegetation types. We use Bayesian Optimization to parameterize CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the developed wet-landunit. Site-level simulations of a coastal non-tidal freshwater wetland in Louisiana were performed with the updated model. Eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from 2012 to 2013 were used to train the model and data from 2021 were used for validation. Patch-specific chamber flux observations and observations of CH 4 concentration profiles in the soil porewater from 2021 were used for evaluation of the model performance. Our results show that ELM-Wet reduces the model's CH 4 emission root mean squared error by up to 33% and is able to represent inter-daily CO 2 and CH 4 flux variability across the wetland's eco-hydrological patches, including during periods of extreme dry or wet conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

ReMU: regional minimal updating for model-based derivative-free optimization

Derivative-free optimization (DFO) problems are optimization problems where derivative information is unavailable or extremely difficult to obtain. Model-based DFO solvers have been applied extensively in scientific computing. Powell's NEWUOA (2004) [Powell, The NEWUOA software for unconstrained optimization without derivatives, in Large-Scale Nonlinear Optimization, Nonconvex Optimization and its Applications Vol. 83, G. Di Pillo and M. Roma, eds., Springer, 2006, pp. 255–297] and Wild's POUNDerS (2014) [Wild, Solving derivative-free nonlinear least squares problems with POUNDERS, in Advances and Trends in Optimization with Engineering Applications, T. Terlaky, M.F. Anjos, and S. Ahmed, eds., SIAM, 2017, pp. 529–540] explore the numerical power of the minimal norm Hessian (MNH) model for DFO and contributed to the open discussion on building better models with fewer data to achieve faster numerical convergence. Another decade later, we propose the regional minimal updating (ReMU) models, and extend the previous models into a broader class, including the H 2 norm models [Xie and Yuan, Least H 2 norm updating of quadratic interpolation models for derivative-free trust-region algorithms, IMA J. Numer. Anal. 46 (2025), pp. 21–50]. This paper shows motivation behind ReMU models, computational details, theoretical and numerical results on particular extreme points and the barycentre of ReMU's weight coefficient region, and the associated KKT matrix error and distance. Novel metrics, such as the truncated Newton step error, are proposed to numerically understand the new models' properties. A new algorithmic strategy, based on iteratively adjusting the ReMU model type, is also proposed, and shows numerical advantages by combining and switching between the barycentric model and the classic least Frobenius norm model in an online fashion.

derivative-free trust-region methods↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust constrained tension control for high-precision roll-to-roll processes

Tension control is critical for maintaining good product quality in most roll-to-roll (R2R) production systems. Previous work has primarily focused on improving the disturbance rejection performance of tension controllers. Here, a robust linear parameter-varying model predictive control (LPV-MPC) scheme is designed to enhance the tension tracking performance of a pilot R2R system for deposition of materials used in flexible thin film applications. The performance of a tension controller may degrade due to disturbances associated with model uncertainties and the slowly-changing dynamics in R2R systems. We introduce a method that separately treats these two sources of disturbance. The controller utilizes an incremental model to eliminate the errors caused by the mismatch between the nominal model and the actual system. A tube-based MPC formulation combined with scheduled parameters adequately updates models and corrects for the time-varying dynamics. Constraints on the rated motor torque are incorporated in the MPC to maintain the controller reliability and avoid machine failures. We illustrate the operation of our control algorithm through simulation of an actual R2R system. The controller outperforms the benchmarks in terms of fast transient response and offset-free tension tracking. Furthermore, it also demonstrates immunity from variations due to parametric uncertainties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parallel simulated annealing with embedded machine learning and multifidelity models for reactor core design

This paper presents extensions to a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm for multi-constrained combinatorial optimization with the aim of embedding multi-fidelity physics models into the annealing procedure. The method uses a low-fidelity, quickly executing model for rapid design space exploration and a high-fidelity model for detailed constraint resolution and on-the-fly bias correction. Machine learning models updated within the annealing procedure were used to bridge the gap between the multi-fidelity models, which led to accurate rapid exploration and efficient detailed constraint resolution. A software implementation of the new multi-fidelity optimization methods, called ML-PSA, was demonstrated on a continuous multi-fidelity optimization problem and a constrained combinatorial PWR lattice design problem. These problems demonstrate some of the features, parallel performance characteristics, and extensible nature of the multi-fidelity SA methods. This paper shows that the developed software and procedure are a general optimization tool that can be applied to a wide variety of scientific and engineering design optimization applications. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent Improvements in Pronghorn for Advanced Reactor Modeling

Pronghorn is a thermal-hydraulics computational tool developed using the Idaho National Laboratory's Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). It is designed to support Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling, ranging from subchannel and porous media analysis to Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling. As an integral part of the MOOSE-based suite of tools, Pronghorn seamlessly couples with other MOOSE-based applications to simulate a variety of physical phenomena. This article highlights recent significant enhancements to Pronghorn's CFD modeling capabilities and demonstrates their application to advanced nuclear reactor designs. The recent improvements in Pronghorn primarily focus on modifications to its turbulence modeling capabilities, near-wall corrections and numerical schemes. In terms of turbulence modeling, the two-equation $k-\epsilon$ and $k-\omega$ SST models have been implemented and validated with both equilibrium and non-equilibrium wall treatments. Additionally, corrections for wall roughness, and curvature, and wall-channeling in pebble beds have been introduced in the near-wall modeling. These developments enable more accurate simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Two case studies are presented in this work: a pool-type Molten Chloride Reactor and a salt-cooled Pebble-Bed High Temperature Reactor. In both cases, the previous models in Pronghorn are compared with the new implementations, demonstrating the improved accuracy achieved with the updated models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fuel-rich oxidation of gasoline surrogate components in an atmospheric flow reactor

Fuel-rich oxidation of three typical gasoline surrogate components, toluene, isooctane, and n-heptane, was investigated in an atmospheric-pressure flow reactor at mean gas temperatures from 1050 to 1350 K, equivalence ratio of 9.0, and residence times of 0.45 and 1.2 s. Not only polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) up to 3 ring structure but also small intermediate products from C 1 to C 5 were quantified by a gas chromatograph mass spectrometry coupled with photon ionization and gas chromatograph with flame ionization detector, respectively. The kinetic model recently developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was revised to reflect the results of many recent investigations. Basically, the updated model could satisfactorily reproduce the experimental mole fractions of many species. The experimental and simulated results showed that PAH mole fractions produced were in the order of toluene, isooctane, and n-heptane. The kinetic analysis using the model was carried out to explore PAH formation pathways, especially focusing on naphthalene, acenaphthylene, and phenanthrene. Through rate of production analysis, it was found that the main formation pathways of many PAHs were affected by the fuels. Although resonantly stabilized radicals, such as benzyl and fulvenallenyl radicals, played a crucial role in the formation pathways of many PAHs in every fuel, they were produced through hydrogen elimination of toluene in toluene fuel, while they were formed from small intermediate products in isooctane and n-heptane fuels. Sensitivity analysis revealed the difference and similarity of the reactions with large positive coefficients according to the fuels studied here. In conclusion, the molecular growth reactions of aromatic species were influential in PAH production in every fuel, whereas the ring formation reactions from small species and the reactions involving toluene had large positive sensitivity coefficients in isooctane/n-heptane and toluene fuels, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multimodal Data Fusion via Entropy Minimization

The use of gradient-based data-driven models to solve a range of real-world remote sensing problems can in practice be limited by the uniformity of available data. Use of data from disparate sensor types, resolutions, and qualities typically requires compromises based on assumptions that are made prior to model training and may not necessarily be optimal given over-arching objectives. For example, while deep neural networks (NNs) are state-of-the-art in a variety of target detection problems, training them typically requires either limiting the training data to a subset over which uniformity can be enforced or training independent models which subsequently require additional score fusion. The method we introduce here seeks to leverage the benefits of both approaches by allowing correlated inputs from different data sources to co-influence preferred model solutions, while maintaining flexibility over missing and mismatching data. In this work we propose a new data fusion technique for gradient updated models based on entropy minimization and experimentally validate it on a hyperspectral target detection dataset. We demonstrate superior performance compared to currently available techniques using a range of realistic data scenarios, where available data has limited spacial overlap and resolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Detailed Pyrolytic Gas-Phase Kinetic Model for the Volatiles of Polyethylene Thermal Degradation

This work presents a semi-detailed kinetic model to address the pyrolytic gas-phase reactivity of volatiles formed during thermal degradation of polyethylene (PE). The model builds on a validated multi-step condensed-phase model and employs validated lumping approaches. Short-chain compounds are modelled with high detail, while long-chain ones are described by surrogate species representative of diesel-cuts (NC16H32) and waxes (NC30H60). The reactivity of short chains is described through the comprehensive CRECK kinetic model, updated to align C5-C7 olefins based on recent literature experimental data. Due to the lack of experimental data for longer olefins, their reactivity is modeled by analogy to the shorter ones, ensuring an asymptotic behavior with increasing carbon numbers. The semi-detailed model is validated through experimental data on PE pyrolysis, assuming an instantaneous mixing of the inert inlet flow with released volatiles, followed by a segregated plug-flow behavior. Validation across different reactor setups confirms the model’s capability to predict detailed product distributions. Despite minor discrepancies, the proposed model effectively captures experimental trends. Further work will address modelling the reactivity in oxygen-containing environments.

kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Semi-Detailed Pyrolytic Gas-Phase Kinetic Model for the Volatiles of Polyethylene Thermal Degradation

kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning models of intermittent operation of RO wellhead water treatment for salinity reduction and nitrate removal

Machine learning models were developed for intermittent multi-mode operation of a wellhead reverse osmosis water purification and desalination system to predict salt passage, nitrate passage, and permeate flux. The models, based on long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, included an attention mechanism to increase model performance in proximity of the regulatory limit for nitrate. Training and testing of the models for the Startup, Production, Shutdown and Flushing operational modes were based on operational data (consisting of 22 process variables per data sample) acquired every 2–5 s over a six-month period. The significant sets of model input attributes for the different operational modes were assessed via Spearman ranking correlation, Self-Organizing Map (SOM) analysis and feed forward feature selection (FFFS). Although the variability of nitrate passage, salt passage and permeate flux was significant over the four operational modes, prediction performance for the three outcomes were with R2 and Average Absolute Relative Error (AARE) of 0.78–0.95 and 2.96–6.16 %, respectively. Model updates post membrane elements replacement demonstrated similar levels of prediction accuracy. The study results suggest that there is merit in exploring the utility of multi-mode models for sensor fault detection, data imputation, and for potential use in model-predictive control.

Intermittent RO operation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear Energy in Long-Term System Models: A Multi-Model Perspective

Long-term energy system models–including electric sector capacity expansion models–are widely used tools for informing planning, technology assessment, and policy analysis. Recent decarbonization goals and rapid technological change have increased the need to appropriately represent economic characteristics and technical details of energy system resources, including variable renewable energy, energy storage technologies, carbon-capture-equipped capacity, and nuclear energy. Nuclear power represents about 20% of electricity generation and 50% of carbon-free electricity in the United States as of 2021. However, there are many perspectives on the role of existing and new nuclear in the future U.S. energy system, which is reflected in the broad range of potential contributions reported in the literature. This project aims to understand how issues central to nuclear energy are represented in long-term energy models. Building on earlier collaborations that focused on variable renewable energy and energy storage, this project convenes four modeling teams that use national-scale long-term energy system models from the Electric Power Research Institute, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to share methods and data, update models, run coordinated scenarios, and identify research needs. Improving tools can provide more insightful analyses and ensure that methods are more transparent.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting anomalous SRF cavity behavior with unsupervised learning

We present an unsupervised learning framework for detecting anomalous superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavity behavior at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), emphasizing its initial performance and effectiveness. Key to the system’s success was the development of data acquisition systems (DAQs) that capture fast-sampled, information-rich signals, essential for detecting transient effects. The approach involves creating daily cavity-specific models using principal component analysis to handle variations in rf signal behavior and mitigate performance degradation from data drift. This unsupervised method eliminates the need for expensive labeling by continuously updating models with recent data. Deployed and operational for 3 months before a scheduled shutdown, the system successfully identified several issues with DAQ signals, confirming its effectiveness. Despite access to only a fraction of CEBAF’s SRF cavity signals, the framework efficiently detected several instances requiring intervention, demonstrating a significant improvement over traditional, labor-intensive methods of manual plot inspection. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗