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DOE OSTI2018

Characterization of Grain‐Size Distribution, Thermal Conductivity, and Gas Diffusivity in Variably Saturated Binary Sand Mixtures

Core Ideas Parameterized models are relevant to applications where different porous media mixtures are used. Models include a grain‐size distribution function to describe bimodal behavior for binary mixtures. Improved model describes observed thermal conductivity–saturation relations for binary mixtures. Combined Buckingham–Penman model used to describe observed gas diffusivity–air content relations. This work is relevant for proper simulation of mixed porous media. Characterization of differently textured porous materials, as well as different volumetric porous media mixtures, in relation to mass and heat transport is vital for many engineering and research applications. Functional relations describing physical (e.g., grain‐size distribution, total porosity), thermal, and gas diffusion properties of porous media and mixtures are necessary to optimize the design of porous systems that involve heat and gas transport processes. However, only a limited number of studies provide characterization of soil physical, thermal, and gas diffusion properties and the functional relationships of these properties under varying soil water contents, especially for soil mixtures, complicating optimization efforts. To better understand how mixing controls the physical, thermal, and gas diffusion properties of porous media, a set of laboratory experiments was performed using five volumetric mixtures of coarse‐ and fine‐grained sand particles. For each mixture, the grain‐size distribution (GSD), thermal conductivity, and gas diffusivity were obtained and parameterized using existing and suggested parametric models. Results show that the extended, two‐region Rosin–Rammler particle‐size distribution model proposed in this study could successfully describe the bimodal behavior of the GSD of binary mixtures. Further, the modified Côté and Konrad thermal conductivity model adequately described the thermal conductivity–water saturation relations observed in different mixtures. The proposed simple soil‐gas diffusivity descriptive model parameterized the upper limit, average, and lower limit behavior in gas diffusivity–air content relations in apparently texture‐invariant gas diffusivity data. Results further show a close analogy between gas diffusivity and thermal conductivity and their variation with saturation across different binary mixtures. Overall, the results of the study provide useful numerical insight into the physical, thermal, and gas transport characteristics of binary mixtures, with wide implications for future engineering and research applications that involve multicomponent porous systems.

Deepagoda, T. K. K. Chamindu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stabilized Hyperfoam Modeling of the General Plastics EF4003 (3 PCF) Flexible Foam

Constitutive model parameterizations for the General Plastics EF4003 low density 3 pound per cubic foot are needed for design and qualification purposes in normal and abnormal mechanical simulations. The material is expected to be deformed in two ways: first during preloading, and second under impact conditions of the system (transient dynamic). All analyses are to be performed at room temperature. The goal is to provide the analysis community a robust constitutive model parameterization to represent the compression behavior of the EF4003 foam from small deformations up to massive compressive deformations when the foam is densifying. It is worth noting the EF4003 exhibits anisotropy in its stress-strain behavior between the rise and transverse directions (See figure 2.8c-d) as well as plateau behavior that is very likely to cause material stability issues, due to the buckling transition, (and has historically done so) when using Sandia’s current workhorse models for flexible foams, Hyperfoam and Flex Foam. A Stability-informed Hyperfoam parameterization procedure is developed and executed to calibrate a hyperfoam model for the EF4003 room temperature, transversely loaded data. A rise orientation parameterization was not attempted due to localization in the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of Hurricane Harvey flood event through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models: Challenges and next steps

Using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey flood event as a test case, this study set up a series of sensitivity analyses to highlight three challenges associated with large-scale flood inundation modeling, including (a) model parameterization, (b) errors in digital elevation models, and (c) effects of reservoir retention. Driven by radar-based hourly rainfall data, a series of hydrologic-hydraulic models including the VIC hydrologic model, RAPID routing model, and Flood2D-GPU hydrodynamic model are set up over Harris County, Texas, to simulate flood inundation and hazards. The results demonstrate the importance of hydrologic parameters in improving flood modeling. For a large flood event such as Hurricane Harvey, the effect of the initial water depths is insignificant. The Manning's n values may increase the peak water depth by ~1%, the flood extents by 65km 2 , and the high danger zone by ~6%. On the contrary, the bathymetry correction factors may reduce the flood extent by ~1.4% and the high-danger zone by ~4%. Reducing the reservoir storage capacity to 1% may increase the flood extent by ~4% and the high-danger zone by ~17%. This study may provide supporting information to guide and prioritize the development of future high-performance computing hydrodynamic large-scale flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Collaborative Research: ARM observations for the development and evaluation of models and parameterizations of cloudy boundary layers

This is a collaborative project with Dr. Ping Zhu at Florida International University. It was designed to address key issues regarding the treatment of boundary layer cloud processes in climate models with UM’s research focusing on the analyses of ARM cloud radar observations from MMCR and WACR and FIU’s research focusing on numerical simulations of boundary layer clouds. This project capitalized on recent advancements in the ARM Millimeter Cloud Radar (MMCR) processing and the development of the WACR (at the SGP) to provide high temporal and spatial resolution Doppler cloud radar measurements for characterizing in-cloud turbulence, large-eddy circulations, and high resolution cloud structures of direct relevance to high resolution numerical modeling studies. The principal focus of the observational component of this collaborative study during this funding period was on stratocumulus clouds over the SGP site and fair-weather cumuli over the Nauru site. The statistical descriptions of the vertical velocity structures in continental stratocumulus clouds and in the Nauru shallow cumuli that are part of this study represents the most comprehensive observations of the vertical velocities in boundary layer clouds to date and were done in collaboration with Drs. Virendra Ghate and Pavlos Kollias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A global model–measurement evaluation of particle light scattering coefficients at elevated relative humidity

The uptake of water by atmospheric aerosols has a pronounced effect on particle light scattering properties, which in turn are strongly dependent on the ambient relative humidity (RH). Earth system models need to account for the aerosol water uptake and its influence on light scattering in order to properly capture the overall radiative effects of aerosols. Here we present a comprehensive model–measurement evaluation of the particle light scattering enhancement factor f(RH), defined as the particle light scattering coefficient at elevated RH (here set to 85 %) divided by its dry value. The comparison uses simulations from 10 Earth system models and a global dataset of surface-based in situ measurements. In general, we find a large diversity in the magnitude of predicted f(RH) amongst the different models, which can not be explained by the site types. Based on our evaluation of sea salt scattering enhancement and simulated organic mass fraction, there is a strong indication that differences in the model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are driving at least some of the observed diversity in simulated f(RH). Additionally, a key point is that defining dry conditions is difficult from an observational point of view and, depending on the aerosol, may influence the measured f(RH). The definition of dry also impacts our model evaluation, because several models exhibit significant water uptake between RH = 0 % and 40 %. The multisite average ratio between model outputs and measurements is 1.64 when RH = 0 % is assumed as the model dry RH and 1.16 when RH = 40 % is the model dry RH value. The overestimation by the models is believed to originate from the hygroscopicity parameterizations at the lower RH range which may not implement all phenomena taking place (i.e., not fully dried particles and hysteresis effects). This will be particularly relevant when a location is dominated by a deliquescent aerosol such as sea salt. Our results emphasize the need to consider the measurement conditions in such comparisons and recognize that measurements referred to as dry may not be dry in model terms. Recommendations for future model–measurement evaluation and model improvements are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A library of AI-assisted FAIR water cycle and related disturbance datasets to enable model training, parameterization and validation

This whitepaper is responsive to focal area Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods. Here we describe how FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Reusable, Interoperable) datasets related to water cycle extremes are essential for successful implementation of ML in Earth System and other models. We also describe how AI can be used to acquire and integrate water cycle data related to extreme events to create a library of FAIR datasets for training and evaluating algorithms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Quantitative impact of changes in marrow cellularity, skeletal size, and bone mineral density on active marrow dosimetry based upon a reference model

Purpose The hematopoietically active tissues of skeletal bone marrow are a prime target for computational dosimetry given potential risks of leukemia and, at higher dose levels, acute marrow toxicity. The complex three‐dimensional geometry of trabecular spongiosa, however, complicates schema for dose assessment in such a way that only a few reference skeletal models have been developed to date, and which are based upon microimaging of a limited number of cadaveric bone spongiosa cores. The question then arises as to what degree of accuracy is achievable from reference skeletal dose models when applied to individual patients or specific exposed populations? Methods Patient variability in marrow dosimetry were quantified for three skeletal sites — the ribs, lumbar vertebrae, and cranium — for the beta‐emitters 45 Ca, 153 Sm, and 90 Y, and the alpha‐particle emitters 223 Ra, 219 Rn, and 215 Po, the latter two being the immediate progeny of the former. For each radionuclide and bone site, three patient parameters were altered from their values in the reference model: (1) bone size as a surrogate for patient stature, (2) marrow cellularity as a surrogate for age‐ or disease‐related changes in marrow adiposity, and (3) the trabecular bone volume fraction as a surrogate for bone mineral density. Marrow dose variability is expressed as percent differences in the radionuclide S value given by the reference model and the patient‐parameterized model. The impact of radionuclide biokinetics on marrow dosimetry was not considered. Results Variations in overall bone size play a very minor role in active marrow dose variability. Marrow cellularity is a significant factor in dose variability for active marrow self‐irradiation, but it plays no role for radionuclides localized to the trabecular bone matrix. Variations in trabecular bone volume fractions impact the active marrow dose variability for short‐range particle emitters 45 Ca, 223 Ra, 219 Rn, and 215 Po in the vertebrae and ribs, skeletal sites with small spongiosa proportions of trabecular bone. In the cranium, with its relative high proportion of trabecular bone, significant differences in marrow dosimetry from the reference model were noted for all radionuclides. Conclusions Skeletal models of active marrow dosimetry should be more fully parameterized to permit closer matching to patient bone density and marrow cellularity, particularly when considering short‐range particle emitters localized to either the bone trabeculae or active marrow, respectively.

Geyer, Amy M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Proceedings of the 2016 Parameterized Reduced Order Modeling Workshop

The 2016 Parameterized Reduced Order Modeling (PROM) Workshop was held in June, 2016, in Albuquerque, NM. This workshop included 30 researchers who took part in a two day discussion regarding the state of the art for PROMs, complimentary reduced order modeling (ROM) theories, and discussion of the future directions of PROM research. The goals of the workshop were three-fold: to assess the relative accuracy, efficiency, and merits of the different PROM methods; to discuss the state of the art for ROMs and how PROMs can benefit from these advances; and to define the pressing challenges for PROMs and a path for future research collaborations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Fast domain-aware neural network emulation of a planetary boundary layer parameterization in a numerical weather forecast model

Abstract. Parameterizations for physical processes in weather and climate models are computationally expensive. We use model output from the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) climate model to train deep neural networks (DNNs) and evaluate whether trained DNNs can provide an accurate alternative to the physics-based parameterizations. Specifically, we develop an emulator using DNNs for a planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization in the WRF model. PBL parameterizations are used in atmospheric models to represent the diurnal variation in the formation and collapse of the atmospheric boundary layer – the lowest part of the atmosphere. The dynamics and turbulence, as well as velocity, temperature, and humidity profiles within the boundary layer are all critical for determining many of the physical processes in the atmosphere. PBL parameterizations are used to represent these processes that are usually unresolved in a typical climate model that operates at horizontal spatial scales in the tens of kilometers. We demonstrate that a domain-aware DNN, which takes account of underlying domain structure (e.g., nonlocal mixing), can successfully simulate the vertical profiles within the boundary layer of velocities, temperature, and water vapor over the entire diurnal cycle. Results also show that a single trained DNN from one location can produce predictions of wind speed, temperature, and water vapor profiles over nearby locations with similar terrain conditions with correlations higher than 0.9 when compared with the WRF simulations used as the training dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Multiple soil nutrient competition between plants, microbes, and mineral surfaces: model development, parameterization, and example applications in several tropical forests

Soil is a complex system where biotic (e.g., plant roots, micro-organisms) and abiotic (e.g., mineral surfaces) consumers compete for resources necessary for life (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus). This competition is ecologically significant, since it regulates the dynamics of soil nutrients and controls aboveground plant productivity. Here we develop, calibrate and test a nutrient competition model that accounts for multiple soil nutrients interacting with multiple biotic and abiotic consumers. As applied here for tropical forests, the Nutrient COMpetition model (N-COM) includes three primary soil nutrients (NH 4 + , NO 3 − and PO x ; representing the sum of PO 4 3− , HPO 4 2− and H 2 PO 4 − ) and five potential competitors (plant roots, decomposing microbes, nitrifiers, denitrifiers and mineral surfaces). The competition is formulated with a quasi-steady-state chemical equilibrium approximation to account for substrate (multiple substrates share one consumer) and consumer (multiple consumers compete for one substrate) effects. N-COM successfully reproduced observed soil heterotrophic respiration, N 2 O emissions, free phosphorus, sorbed phosphorus and NH 4 + pools at a tropical forest site (Tapajos). The overall model uncertainty was moderately well constrained. Our sensitivity analysis revealed that soil nutrient competition was primarily regulated by consumer–substrate affinity rather than environmental factors such as soil temperature or soil moisture. Our results also imply that under strong nutrient limitation, relative competitiveness depends strongly on the competitor functional traits (affinity and nutrient carrier enzyme abundance). We then applied the N-COM model to analyze field nitrogen and phosphorus perturbation experiments in two tropical forest sites (in Hawaii and Puerto Rico) not used in model development or calibration. Under soil inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus elevated conditions, the model accurately replicated the experimentally observed competition among nutrient consumers. Although we used as many observations as we could obtain, more nutrient addition experiments in tropical systems would greatly benefit model testing and calibration. In summary, the N-COM model provides an ecologically consistent representation of nutrient competition appropriate for land BGC models integrated in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian calibration of strength parameters using hydrocode simulations of symmetric impact shock experiments of Al-5083

We report that predictive modeling of materials requires accurately parameterized constitutive models. Parameterizing models that describe dynamic strength and plasticity require experimentally probing materials in a variety of strain rate regimes. Some experimental protocols (e.g., plate impact) probe the constitutive response of a material using indirect measures such as free surface velocimetry. Manual efforts to parameterize constitutive models using indirect experimental measures often lead to non-unique optimizations without quantification of parameter uncertainty. This study uses a Bayesian statistical approach to find model parameters and to quantify the uncertainty of the resulting parameters. The technique is demonstrated by parameterizing the Johnson-Cook strength model for aluminum alloy 5083 by coupling hydrocode simulations and velocimetry measurements of a series of plate impact experiments. Simulation inputs and outputs are used to calibrate an emulator that mimics the outputs of the computationally intensive simulations. Varying the amount of experimental data available for emulator calibration showed clear differences in the degree of uncertainty and uniqueness of the resulting optimized Johnson-Cook parameters for Al-5083. The results of the optimization provided a numerical evaluation of the degree of confidence in model parameters and model performance. Lastly, given an understanding of the physical effects of certain model parameters, individual parameter uncertainty can be leveraged to quickly identify gaps in the physical domains covered by completed experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Measuring Alignments between Galaxies and the Cosmic Web at z ∼ 2–3 Using IGM Tomography

Many galaxy formation models predict alignments between galaxy spin and the cosmic web (i.e., directions of filaments and sheets), leading to an intrinsic alignment between galaxies that creates a systematic error in weak-lensing measurements. These effects are often predicted to be stronger at high redshifts (z ≳ 1) that are inaccessible to massive galaxy surveys on foreseeable instrumentation, but IGM tomography of the Lyα forest from closely spaced quasars and galaxies is starting to measure the z ∼ 2–3 cosmic web with requisite fidelity. Using mock surveys from hydrodynamical simulations, we examine the utility of this technique, in conjunction with coeval galaxy samples, to measure alignment between galaxies and the cosmic web at z ∼ 2.5. We show that IGM tomography surveys with ≲5 h {sup −1} Mpc sightline spacing can accurately recover the eigenvectors of the tidal tensor, which we use to define the directions of the cosmic web. For galaxy spins and shapes, we use a model parameterized by the alignment strength, Δ〈cos θ〉, with respect to the tidal tensor eigenvectors from the underlying density field, and also consider observational effects such as errors in the galaxy position angle, inclination, and redshift. Measurements using the upcoming ∼1 deg{sup 2} CLAMATO tomographic survey and 600 coeval zCOSMOS-Deep galaxies should place 3σ limits on extreme alignment models with Δ〈cos θ〉∼0.1, but much larger surveys encompassing >10,000 galaxies, such as Subaru PFS, will be required to constrain models with Δ〈cos θ〉∼0.03. These measurements will constrain models of galaxy–cosmic web alignment and test tidal torque theory at z ∼ 2, improving our understanding of the physics of intrinsic alignments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Formulation of Multicomponent Lattice Gas Model Cluster Expansions Parameterized on Ab Initio Data: An Introduction to the Ab Initio Mean-Field Augmented Lattice Gas Modeling Code

A formalism is presented for the construction of multicomponent lattice gas models parameterized with ab initio (typically density functional theory) data. The leave-multiple-out and the leave-one-out cross validation score are showcased, and practical algorithms are developed and implemented in a new code called the Ab initio Mean-field Augmented Lattice Gas Modeling (AMALGM) code. Here, the functionality of these algorithms is demonstrated with a fully worked out example using the O/Fe(100) system. AMALGM and the formalism on which it is based are envisioned as a surface-oriented lattice gas alternative to other cluster expansion codes that are typically geared toward bulk systems whose lateral interactions between components are parameterized using an Ising model. While the formalism is created within the context of surfaces, it is equally applicable to bulk materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

Fully coupled simulation of cosmic reionization. II. Recombinations, clumping factors, and the photon budget for reionization

We use a fully coupled cosmological simulation including dark matter dynamics, multispecies hydrodynamics, nonequilibrium chemical ionization, flux-limited diffusion radiation transport, and a parameterized model of star formation and feedback (thermal and radiative) to investigate the epoch of hydrogen reionization in detail. In this paper, the first of several application papers, we investigate the mechanics of reionization from stellar sources forming in high-z galaxies, the utility of various formulations for the gas clumping factor on accurately estimating the effective recombination time in the intergalactic medium (IGM), and the photon budget required to achieve reionization. We also test the accuracy of the static and time-dependent models of Madau et al. as predictors of reionization completion/maintenance. We simulate a WMAP7 ΛCDM cosmological model in a 20 comoving Mpc cube, resolved with 800{sup 3} uniform fluid cells and dark matter particles. By tuning our star formation recipe to approximately match the observed high-redshift star formation rate density and galaxy luminosity function, we have created a fully coupled radiation hydrodynamical realization of hydrogen reionization, which begins to ionize at z ≈ 10 and is completed at z ≈ 5.8 without further tuning. We find that roughly two ionizing photons per H atom are required to convert the neutral IGM to a highly ionized state. After reionization concludes, we find that the quantity n-dot{sub ion}×(1 Gyr)/n{sub H} is ∼9 at z = 5, in rough agreement with measurements of the ionizing emissivity by Becker and Bolton. The complicated events during reionization that lead to this number can be generally described as inside-out, but in reality, the narrative depends on the level of ionization of the gas one attributes as being ionized. We find that the formula for the ionizing photon production rate needed to maintain the IGM in an ionized state derived by Madau et al. should not be used to predict the epoch of reionization completion because it ignores history-dependent terms in the global ionization balance which are not ignorable. We find that the time-dependent model for the ionized volume fraction Q{sub HII} is more predictive, but overestimates the redshift of reionization completion z{sub reion} by Δz ≈ 1. We propose a revised formulation of the time-dependent model that agrees with our simulation to a few percent accuracy. Finally, we use our simulation data to measure the absorption of ionizing radiation due to circumgalactic gas resolved on our mesh and find f-bar{sub esc}(CGM)≈0.7.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial biases of information influence global estimates of soil respiration: how can we improve global predictions?

Soil respiration (Rs), the efflux of CO2 from soils to the atmosphere, is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but is poorly constrained from regional to global scales. The global soil respiration database (SRDB) is a compilation of in-situ Rs observations from around the globe that has been consistently updated with new measurements over the past decade. It is unclear whether the addition of data to new versions of the SRDB has produced better-constrained global Rs estimates. We compared two versions of the SRDB (v3.0 n=5173 and v5.0 n=10366) to determine how additional data influenced the global sum and uncertainty of Rs as predicted by a quantile regression forest model. A model parameterized using SRDBv3 yielded a global Rs sum of 88.6 Pg C yr-1, and associated uncertainty of 29.9 (mean absolute error) and 57.9 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1, whereas parameterization using SRDBv5 yielded 96.5 Pg C yr-1 and associated uncertainty of 30.2 (mean average error) and 73.4 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1. Empirically estimated global heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from v3 and v5 were 49.9-50.2 (mean 50.1) and 53.3-53.5 (mean 53.4) Pg C yr-1, respectively. Interestingly, SRDBv5’s inclusion of new data from underrepresented regions (e.g., Asia, Africa, South America) thus resulted in overall higher model uncertainty. The SRDBv5 is still biased towards northern latitudes and temperate zones, so we tested that an optimized global distribution of Rs measurements resulted in a global sum of 96.4 ± 21.4 Pg C yr-1 and lower model uncertainty. These results support current global estimates of Rs but highlight spatial inconsistencies that influence model parameterization and interpretation that should be addressed to improve regional- to global-scale predictions.

Stell, Emma↗

NASA NTRS2024

Leveraging Scientific Community Knowledge for Air Quality Model Chemistry Parameterizations

Air pollution contributes to adverse health outcomes. Approximately 121 million people in the United States—one third of the population—live where National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) are violated. In most cases, the criteria pollutants exceeding standards are ozone (O 3 ) and fine particles (PM 2.5 ). In addition, 188 substances known or suspected to cause cancer or other serious health effects are designated as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). Essentially, all O 3 and significant portions of PM 2.5 and HAPs are produced in the atmosphere through chemical and physical processes. In the case of PM 2.5 , subcomponents formed primarily from precursor gases—sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—account for 60% of the U.S. county-level annual mean concentration. In addition, 47% of the cancer risk and 25% of the noncancer risk from HAPs have been attributed to atmospheric chemistry rather than direct emissions. In this article, we introduce the role of chemical mechanisms in air quality models, a new atmospheric science community effort, and needs for further mechanism development.

Havala O.T. Pye↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Bayesian Machine Learning Model for Estimating Building Occupancy from Open Source Data

Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian based informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000ft2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.Understanding building occupancy is critical to a wide array of applications including natural hazards loss analysis, green building technologies, and population distribution modeling. Due to the expense of directly monitoring buildings, scientists rely in addition on a wide and disparate array of ancillary and open source information including subject matter expertise, survey data, and remote sensing information. These data are fused using data harmonization methods which refer to a loose collection of formal and informal techniques for fusing data together to create viable content for building occupancy estimation. In this paper, we add to the current state of the art by introducing the Population Data Tables (PDT), a Bayesian model and informatics system for systematically arranging data and harmonization techniques into a consistent, transparent, knowledge learning framework that retains in the final estimation uncertainty emerging from data, expert judgment, and model parameterization. PDT probabilistically estimates ambient occupancy in units of people/1000 ft 2 for over 50 building types at the national and sub-national level with the goal of providing global coverage. The challenge of global coverage led to the development of an interdisciplinary geospatial informatics system tool that provides the framework for capturing, storing, and managing open source data, handling subject matter expertise, carrying out Bayesian analytics as well as visualizing and exporting occupancy estimation results. We present the PDT project, situate the work within the larger community, and report on the progress of this multi-year project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗