Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model fitting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

Primary and Low-Strain Creep Models for 9Cr Tempered Martensitic Steels Including the Effects of Irradiation Softening and High-Helium Re-Hardening

Primary and low-strain creep represents a very important integrity challenge to large, complex structures, like fusion reactors. Here, we develop a predictive empirical primary creep model for 9Cr tempered martensitic steels (TMS), relating the applied stress (σ) to strain (ε), time (t) and temperature (T). The most accurate model is based on the applied σ normalized by the steel’s T-dependent ultimate tensile stress (σo), σ/σo(T). The model, fit to 17 heats of 9Cr TMS, yielded a σ root mean square error (RMSE) of ≈±11 MPa. Notably, the model also provides robust predictions for all the other TMS, when calibrated only by the fusion candidate Eurofer97 database. The model was extended to explore two possible effects of neutron irradiation, which produces both displacements per atom (dpa) and helium (He in atomic parts per million, appm) damage. These effects, which have not been previously considered, include: (a) softening, as a function of dpa, at T > ≈400–450 °C, in low-He fission environments (<1 He/dpa); and (b) subsequent re-hardening in high-He (≥10 He/dpa) fusion first-wall environments. The irradiation effect models predict (a) accelerated primary creep due to irradiation softening; and (b) fully arrested creep due to high-He re-hardening.

Alam, Md Ershadul (ORCID:0000000345968026)↗

[Re] Drivers of evapotranspiration from boreal wildfires

Computational reproducibility is a difficult challenge across science. I attempted to use R 3.6.1 to reproduce linear model fits, done originally using v2.6.0 for a 2009 paper on the drivers of large-scale forest evapotranspiration after wildfire. Model outputs were largely identical, aside from minor formatting changes, except for one–out of 12 total– regression in which the median residual value changed very slightly (in the sixth decimal place). I suggest that this essentially successful reproducibility is due to the relative simplicity of the script, its use of only base R functions, and R’s historically conservative approach to breaking changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulations of grain growth in tungsten armor materials under ARC plasma edge operation conditions using an integrated plasma-edge/materials model

An integrated model of grain growth deuterium-exposed tungsten polycrystals, consisting of a two-dimensional vertex dynamics model fitted to atomistic data, has been developed to assess the grain growth kinetics of deuterium-exposed polycrystalline tungsten (W). The model tracks the motion of grain boundaries under the effect of driving forces stemming from grain boundary curvature and differential deuterium concentration accumulation. Here, we apply the model to experimentally synthesized tungsten polycrystals under deuterium-saturated conditions relevant to the ARC concept design. The results indicate rapid grain growth kinetics in the near-surface region adjacent to the plasma, where the temperature reaches 1400 K, whereas the microstructure remains stable deeper in the material with the lower temperature of 1000 K. The combined modeling and analysis further reveal that monolithic tungsten produced via conventional fabrication routes is highly susceptible to grain coarsening at temperatures exceeding 1000 K, largely independent of the magnitude of the applied driving force. Moreover, the accumulation of deuterium near grain boundaries has a pronounced inhibitory effect on grain boundary migration. High-angle grain boundaries ( > 50°) contribute more significantly to the overall grain growth process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Suppressing simulation bias in multi-modal data using transfer learning

Abstract Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is multi-dimensional. Simulations, however, often suffer from an inherent bias. Estimation of this bias may be poorly constrained not only because of data sparsity, but also because traditional predictive models fit only one type of observed outputs, such as scalars or images, instead of all available output data modalities, which might have been acquired and simulated at great cost. To break this limitation and open up the path for multi-modal calibration, we propose to combine a novel, transfer learning technique for suppressing the bias with recent developments in deep learning, which allow building predictive models with multi-modal outputs. First, we train an initial neural network model on simulated data to learn important correlations between different output modalities and between simulation inputs and outputs. Then, the model is partially retrained, or transfer learned, to fit the experiments; a method that has never been implemented in this type of architecture. Using fewer than 10 inertial confinement fusion experiments for training, transfer learning systematically improves the simulation predictions while a simple output calibration, which we design as a baseline, makes the predictions worse. We also offer extensive cross-validation with real and carefully designed synthetic data. The method described in this paper can be applied to a wide range of problems that require transferring knowledge from simulations to the domain of experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Pore-resolved investigation of turbulent open channel flow over a randomly packed permeable sediment bed

Pore-resolved direct numerical simulations are performed to investigate the interactions between streamflow turbulence and groundwater flow through a randomly packed porous sediment bed for three permeability Reynolds numbers, Re K = 2.56 , 5.17 and 8.94, representative of natural stream or river systems. Time–space averaging is used to quantify the Reynolds stress, form-induced stress, mean flow and shear penetration depths, and mixing length at the sediment–water interface (SWI). Here, the mean flow and shear penetration depths increase with Re K and are found to be nonlinear functions of non-dimensional permeability. The peaks and significant values of the Reynolds stresses, form-induced stresses, and pressure variations are shown to occur in the top layer of the bed, which is also confirmed by conducting simulations of just the top layer as roughness elements over an impermeable wall. The probability distribution functions (p.d.f.s) of normalized local bed stress are found to collapse for all Reynolds numbers, and their root-mean-square fluctuations are assumed to follow logarithmic correlations. The fluctuations in local bed stress and resultant drag and lift forces on sediment grains are mainly a result of the top layer; their p.d.f.s are symmetric with heavy tails, and can be well represented by a non-Gaussian model fit. The bed stress statistics and the pressure data at the SWI potentially can be used in providing better boundary conditions in modelling of incipient motion and reach-scale transport in the hyporheic zone.

turbulence simulation↗

Development of a continuous synthesis process for carbamazepine using validated in-line Raman spectroscopy and kinetic modelling for disturbance simulation

Mitigation of failure modes in the continuous synthesis (CS) of a drug substance (DS) has the potential to widen the adoption of continuous manufacturing (CM) technologies by the pharmaceutical industry. Here, this work demonstrates the development of a robust continuous process for the synthesis of carbamazepine (CBZ), an essential medicine as per the World Health Organization (WHO), facilitated by kinetic modelling and monitored by in-line Raman spectroscopy. Accurate kinetic modelling and the use of validated process analytical technology (PAT) models for quantitative measurement were found to play an important role in developing CS of drug substances. Kinetic data for the formation of CBZ from iminostilbene (ISB) were collected by batch reaction sampling and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. A non-linear solver and iterative method was applied to determine two sets of Arrhenius parameters simultaneously for the reaction system by minimizing the standard error of the model fit. The start-up and dynamic equilibrium stages for the CS of CBZ using a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) were modelled based on the batch kinetic data and employed to optimize conversion and simulate process disturbances. An in-line Raman spectroscopy method was successfully developed, validated, and integrated to determine the concentrations of CBZ and ISB within the operating range for the CS. The CS kinetic model was evaluated experimentally from startup to dynamic equilibrium over 10 residence times with monitoring by HPLC and in-line Raman spectroscopy. The developed kinetic model in tandem with in-line Raman spectroscopy successfully predicted disturbances due to changes in process variables and can serve as a useful tool in the future design of advanced process control strategies for the continuous synthesis of CBZ.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On analysis and stochastic modeling of the particle kinetic energy equation in particle-laden isotropic turbulent flows

In this study, we analyze three-dimensional particle-laden, isotropic turbulence to develop an understanding of inertial particle dynamics from a kinetic energy perspective. Data trends implying inhomogeneous sampling of the flow by particles are identified and used to support a proposed particle behavior: particles appear to accumulate in regions of low flow kinetic energy over time because they lose kinetic energy and slow down in such regions, ultimately causing them to spend more time there. To elucidate this behavior, we derive a particle kinetic energy equation from the particle momentum equation, which incorporates inertial effects through the Schiller–Naumann drag correlation. Upon extracting fundamental physics from this equation, hypotheses regarding the role of the Stokes number in the temporal change of particle kinetic energy and the previously proposed particle behavior are evaluated using simulation data considering three Stokes numbers. Finally, a Fokker–Planck equation is used to derive the steady-state probability density function of the particle kinetic energy. The model fits the simulation data well and provides a tool for further investigation into understanding preferential concentration, as well as a reduced order model for predicting particle kinetic energy in turbulent flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Inferring the Thermal History of the Intergalactic Medium from the Properties of the Hydrogen and Helium Lyα Forest

The filamentary network of intergalactic medium (IGM) gas that gives origin to the Lyα forest in the spectra of distant quasars encodes information on the physics of structure formation and the early thermodynamics of diffuse baryonic material. Here we use a massive suite of more than 400 high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulations run with the Graphics Processing Unit–accelerated code Cholla to study the IGM at high spatial resolution maintained over the entire computational volume. The simulations capture a wide range of possible IGM thermal histories by varying the photoheating and photoionizing background produced by star-forming galaxies and active galactic nuclei. A statistical comparison of synthetic spectra with the observed 1D flux power spectra of hydrogen at redshifts 2.2 ≤ z ≤ 5.0 and with the helium Lyα opacity at redshifts 2.4 < z < 2.9 tightly constrains the photoionization and photoheating history of the IGM. By leveraging the constraining power of the available Lyα forest data to break model degeneracies, we find that the IGM experienced two main reheating events over 1.2 Gyr of cosmic time. For our best-fit model, hydrogen reionization completes by z R ≈ 6.0 with a first IGM temperature peak of T 0 ≃ 1.3 × 10 4 K and is followed by the reionization of He ii that completes by z R ≈ 3.0 and yields a second temperature peak of T 0 ≃ 1.4 × 10 4 K. We discuss how our results can be used to obtain information on the timing and the sources of hydrogen and helium reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Q -score as a reliability measure for protein, nucleic acid and small-molecule atomic coordinate models derived from 3DEM maps

Atomic coordinate models are important for the interpretation of 3D maps produced with cryoEM and cryoET (3D electron microscopy; 3DEM). In addition to visual inspection of such maps and models, quantitative metrics can inform about the reliability of the atomic coordinates, in particular how well the model is supported by the experimentally determined 3DEM map. A recently introduced metric, Q-score, was shown to correlate well with the reported resolution of the map for well fitted models. Here, we present new statistical analyses of Q-score based on its application to ∼10 000 maps and models archived in the EMDB (Electron Microscopy Data Bank) and PDB (Protein Data Bank). Further, we introduce two new metrics based on Q-score to represent each map and model relative to all entries in the EMDB and those with similar resolution. We explore through illustrative examples of proteins, nucleic acids and small molecules how Q-scores can indicate whether the atomic coordinates are well fitted to 3DEM maps and also whether some parts of a map may be poorly resolved due to factors such as molecular flexibility, radiation damage and/or conformational heterogeneity. These examples and statistical analyses provide a basis for how Q-scores can be interpreted effectively in order to evaluate 3DEM maps and atomic coordinate models prior to publication and archiving.

B factors↗

What drives the variance of galaxy spectra?

We present a study aimed at understanding the physical phenomena underlying the formation and evolution of galaxies following a data-driven analysis of spectroscopic data based on the variance in a carefully selected sample. We apply principal component analysis (PCA) independently to three subsets of continuum-subtracted optical spectra, segregated into their nebular emission activity as quiescent, star-forming, and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We emphasize that the variance of the input data in this work only relates to the absorption lines in the photospheres of the stellar populations. The sample is taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) in the stellar velocity dispersion range 100–150 km s −1 , to minimize the ‘blurring’ effect of the stellar motion. We restrict the analysis to the first three principal components (PCs) and find that PCA segregates the three types with the highest variance mapping SSP-equivalent age, along with an inextricable degeneracy with metallicity, even when all three PCs are included. Spectral fitting shows that stellar age dominates PC1, whereas PC2 and PC3 have a mixed dependence of age and metallicity. The trends support – independently of any model fitting – the hypothesis of an evolutionary sequence from star formation to AGN to quiescence. As a further test of the consistency of the analysis, we apply the same methodology in different spectral windows, finding similar trends, but the variance is maximal in the blue wavelength range, roughly around the 4000 Å break.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

X-Ray Polarization of the Magnetar 1E 1841−045

We report on IXPE and NuSTAR observations beginning 40 days after the 2024 outburst onset of magnetar 1E 1841−045, marking the first IXPE observation of a magnetar in an enhanced state. Our spectropolarimetric analysis indicates that both a blackbody (BB) plus double power-law (PL) and a double blackbody plus power-law spectral model fit the phase-averaged intensity data well, with a hard PL tail (Γ = 1.19 and 1.35, respectively) dominating above ≈5 keV. For the former model, we find the soft PL (the dominant component at soft energies) exhibits a polarization degree (PD) of ≈30% while the hard PL displays a PD of ≈40%. Similarly, the cool BB of the 2BB+PL model possesses a PD of ≈15% and a hard PL PD of ≈57%. For both models, each component has a polarization angle (PA) compatible with celestial north. Model-independent polarization analysis supports these results, wherein the PD increases from ≈15% to ≈70% in the 2–3 keV and 6–8 keV ranges, respectively, while the PA remains nearly constant. We find marginal evidence for phase-dependent variability of the polarization properties, namely a higher PD at phases coinciding with the hard X-ray pulse peak. We compare the hard X-ray PL to the expectation from resonant inverse Compton scattering (RICS) and secondary pair cascade synchrotron radiation from primary high-energy RICS photons; both present reasonable spectropolarimetric agreement with the data, albeit the latter does so more naturally. We suggest that the soft PL X-ray component may originate from a Comptonized corona in the inner magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solvation Structure of 237 Np 4+ in a Noncomplexing Environment

Here, the solvation structure of an Np 4+ ion in an aqueous, noncomplexing and nonoxidizing environment of trifluoromethanesulfonic (triflic) acid was investigated with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) combined with ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculations. Np L III -edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) data were collected for Np 4+ in 1, 3, and 7 M triflic acid using a laboratory-scale spectrometer and separately at a synchrotron facility, producing data sets in excellent agreement. TDDFT calculations revealed a weak pre-edge feature not previously reported for Np L III -edge XANES. AIMD modeling results showed differences in the hydration shell of the Np 4+ ion at different concentrations of triflic acid; these results are supported by the experiment. EXAFS fit models to the experiment resulted in similar coordination of Np 4+ in noncomplexing aqueous media as reported in the literature for 1 M perchloric acid but, together with calculations, revealed more than one distance between Np and O atoms in 7 M triflic acid. These results imply monodentate coordination with sulfonate groups in 7 M triflic acid and suggest the possibility of proto-neptunyl species in relatively low-concentration Np 4+ acid solutions.

Boglaienko, Daria V. [Pacific Northwest National L↗

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical estimates of the binary properties of rotational variables

ABSTRACT We present a model to estimate the average primary masses, companion mass ranges, the inclination limit for recognizing a rotational variable, and the primary mass spreads for populations of binary stars. The model fits a population’s binary mass function distribution and allows for a probability that some mass functions are incorrectly estimated. Using tests with synthetic data, we assess the model’s sensitivity to each parameter, finding that we are most sensitive to the average primary mass and the minimum companion mass, with less sensitivity to the inclination limit and little to no sensitivity to the primary mass spread. We apply the model to five populations of binary spotted rotational variables identified in ASAS-SN, computing their binary mass functions using RV data from APOGEE. Their average primary mass estimates are consistent with our expectations based on their CMD locations ($\sim 0.75 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for lower main sequence primaries and $\sim 0.9$–$1.2 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for RS CVn and sub-subgiants). Their companion mass range estimates allow companion masses down to $M_2/M_1\simeq 0.1$, although the main sequence population may have a higher minimum mass fraction ($\sim 0.4$). We see weak evidence of an inclination limit $\gtrsim 50^{\circ }$ for the main sequence and sub-subgiant groups and no evidence of an inclination limit in the other groups. No groups show strong evidence for a preferred primary mass spread. We conclude by demonstrating that the approach will provide significantly better estimates of the primary mass and the minimum mass ratio and reasonable sensitivity to the inclination limit with 10 times as many systems.

Phillips, Anya (ORCID:000900051914974X)↗

Dynamics-based halo model for large scale structure

Accurate modeling of the one-to-two halo transition has long been difficult to achieve. Here, we demonstrate that physically motivated halo definitions that respect the bimodal phase-space distribution of dark matter particles near halos resolves this difficulty. Specifically, the two phase-space components are overlapping and correspond to (1) particles orbiting the halo and (2) particles infalling into the halo for the first time. Motivated by this decomposition, García et al. [Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 521, 2464 (2023)] advocated for defining halos as the collection of particles orbiting their self-generated potential. This definition identifies the traditional one-halo term of the halo-mass correlation function with the distribution of orbiting particles around a halo, while the two-halo term governs the distribution of infalling particles. We use dark matter simulations to demonstrate that the distribution of orbiting particles is finite and can be characterized by a single physical scale 𝑟 h , which we refer to as the halo radius. The two-halo term is described using a simple yet accurate empirical model based on the Zel’dovich correlation function. We further demonstrate that the halo radius imprints itself on the distribution of infalling particles at small scales. Our final model for the halo-mass correlation function is accurate at the ≈ 2% level for 𝑟∈ [0.1, 50] ℎ −1 Mpc. The Fourier transform of our best-fit model describes the halo-mass power spectrum with comparable accuracy for 𝑘 ∈ [0.06, 6.0] ℎ Mpc −1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

XRISM Spectroscopy of the Fe Kα Emission Line in the Seyfert Active Galactic Nucleus NGC 4151 Reveals the Disk, Broad-line Region, and Torus

Abstract We present an analysis of the first two XRISM/Resolve spectra of the well-known Seyfert-1.5 active galactic nucleus (AGN) in NGC 4151, obtained in 2023 December. Our work focuses on the nature of the narrow Fe K α emission line at 6.4 keV, the strongest and most common X-ray line observed in AGN. The total line is found to consist of three components. Even the narrowest component of the line is resolved with evident Fe K α ,1 (6.404 keV) and K α ,2 (6.391 keV) contributions in a 2:1 flux ratio, fully consistent with neutral gas with negligible bulk velocity. Subject to the limitations of our models, the narrowest and intermediate-width components are consistent with emission from optically thin gas, suggesting that they arise in a disk atmosphere and/or wind. Modeling the three line components in terms of Keplerian broadening, they are readily associated with (1) the inner wall of the “torus,” (2) the innermost optical “broad-line region” (or “X-ray BLR”), and (3) a region with a radius of r ≃ 100 GM / c 2 that may signal a warp in the accretion disk. Viable alternative explanations of the broadest component include a fast-wind component and/or scattering; however, we find evidence of variability in the narrow Fe K α line complex on timescales consistent with small radii. The best-fit models are statistically superior to simple Voigt functions, but when fit with Voigt profiles the time-averaged lines are consistent with a projected velocity broadening of FWHM = 1600 − 200 + 400 km s − 1 . Overall, the resolution and sensitivity of XRISM show that the narrow Fe K line in AGN is an effective probe of all key parts of the accretion flow, as it is currently understood. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of AGN accretion, future studies with XRISM, and X-ray-based black hole mass measurements.

Audard, Marc (ORCID:000000034721034X)↗

Low energy neutron light output characterization of EJ301D and deuterated stilbene with a comparison of light output characterization methods

The neutron-induced light yield of a 2.54 cm diameter by 2.54 cm long right circular cylinder of EJ301D and a (5.08 cm)3 custom made cube of deuterated trans-stilbene-d12 (d-stilbene) were measured over incident neutron energies from 300 keV to 2.2 MeV and 200 keV to 2.4 MeV, respectively. The measurements were performed using a time-of-flight experiment with a Cf-252 source and an approximately 1.5 m flight path. We compare three light output spectrum full energy deposition edge estimation methods: (1) simulating the neutron energy spectrum edge and fitting it to the light output spectrum, (2) using the inflection point of the light output spectrum edge (derivative method, a.k.a. Kornilov’s method), and (3) using an empirical model fit to the edge of the light output spectrum. Both the derivative and equation fit methods do not account for physical processes such as multiple neutron scattering in the detectors. They instead rely on assumptions about the linear shape continuum shape of the light output spectrum and the direct correlation between the location of the spectrum’s inflection point and maximum energy deposition. These assumptions were found to introduce bias into those methods when tested against simulated spectra with known edge locations. When tested against measured spectra the derivative method was found to differ from the simulation fit by greater than 30% at low energies with large discontinuities for adjacent data points above 800 keV incident neutron energy. The empirical equation fitting method was found to also exhibit bias of a similar magnitude, but with significantly more continuous behavior, especially with the lower count data of the smaller volumed EJ301D scintillator. Experimental light output yield for this neutron energy range is reported using the simulated spectrum fitting method because it includes physics neglected by the other methods, and did not exhibit the bias observed in the other methods

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗