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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Estimation of Time-Varying Pilot Model Parameters

Human control behavior is rarely completely stationary over time due to fatigue or loss of attention. In addition, there are many control tasks for which human operators need to adapt their control strategy to vehicle dynamics that vary in time. In previous studies on the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior wavelets were used to estimate the time-varying frequency response functions. However, the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters was not considered. Estimating these parameters can be a valuable tool for the quantification of different aspects of human time-varying manual control. This paper presents two methods for the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters, a two-step method using wavelets and a windowed maximum likelihood estimation method. The methods are evaluated using simulations of a closed-loop control task with time-varying pilot equalization and vehicle dynamics. Simulations are performed with and without remnant. Both methods give accurate results when no pilot remnant is present. The wavelet transform is very sensitive to measurement noise, resulting in inaccurate parameter estimates when considerable pilot remnant is present. Maximum likelihood estimation is less sensitive to pilot remnant, but cannot detect fast changes in pilot control behavior.

Zaal, Peter M. T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Extraction of aerodynamic parameters for aircraft at extreme flight conditions

The maximum likelihood estimator was used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new development and applications, assuming familiarity with basic concepts. The maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses are discussed. The current strength and limitations associated with obtaining flight-determined aerodynamic coefficients in extreme flight conditions are assessed. The importance of the careful combining of wind tunnel results (or calculations) and flight results and the thorough evaluation of the mathematical model is emphasized. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example, and the cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data is discussed.

Iliff, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Extraction of aerodynamic parameters for aircraft at extreme flight conditions

The maximum likelihood estimator has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. Most of the literature on aircraft estimation concentrates on new developments and applications, assuming familiarity with basic concepts. This paper briefly discusses the maximum likelihood estimator and the aircraft equations of motion that the estimator uses. The current strength and limitations associated with obtaining flight-determined aerodynamic coefficients in extreme flight conditions is assessed. The importance of the careful combining of wind tunnel results (or calculations) and flight results and the thorough evaluation of the mathematical model is emphasized. The basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple computed aircraft example, and the cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to help illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data is discussed.

Iliff, K. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

GalaxyFlow: upsampling hydrodynamical simulations for realistic mock stellar catalogues

ABSTRACT Cosmological N-body simulations of galaxies operate at the level of ‘star particles’ with a mass resolution on the scale of thousands of solar masses. Turning these simulations into stellar mock catalogues requires ‘upsampling’ the star particles into individual stars following the same phase-space density. In this paper, we introduce two new upsampling methods. First, we describe GalaxyFlow, a sophisticated upsampling method that utilizes normalizing flows to both estimate the stellar phase-space density and sample from it. Secondly, we improve on existing upsamplers based on adaptive kernel density estimation (KDE), using maximum likelihood estimation to fine-tune the bandwidth for such algorithms in a way that improves both the density estimation accuracy and upsampling results. We demonstrate our upsampling techniques on a neighbourhood of the Solar location in two simulated galaxies: Auriga 6 and h277. Both yield smooth stellar distributions that closely resemble the stellar densities seen in the Gaia DR3 catalogue. Furthermore, we introduce a novel multimodel classifier test to compare the accuracy of different upsampling methods quantitatively. This test confirms that GalaxyFlow more accurately estimates the density of the underlying star particles than methods based on KDE, at the cost of being more computationally intensive.

Lim, Sung Hak (ORCID:0000000330981092)↗
NASA NTRS1995

Lidar Analyses

A brief description of enhancements made to the NASA MSFC coherent lidar model is provided. Notable improvements are the addition of routines to automatically determine the 3 dB misalignment loss angle and the backscatter value at which the probability of a good estimate (for a maximum likelihood estimator) falls to 50%. The ability to automatically generate energy/aperture parametrization (EAP) plots which include the effects of angular misalignment has been added. These EAP plots make it very easy to see that for any practical system where there is some degree of misalignment then there is an optimum telescope diameter for which the laser pulse energy required to achieve a particular sensitivity is minimized. Increasing the telescope diameter above this will result in a reduction of sensitivity. These parameterizations also clearly show that the alignment tolerances at shorter wavelengths are much stricter than those at longer wavelengths. A brief outline of the NASA MSFC AEOLUS program is given and a summary of the lidar designs considered during the program is presented. A discussion of some of the design trades is performed both in the text and in a conference publication attached as an appendix.

Spiers, Gary D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial autoencoder ensemble for fast and probabilistic reconstructions of few-shot photon correlation functions for solid-state quantum emitters

Second-order photon correlation measurements [g (2) (τ) functions] are widely used to classify single-photon emission purity in quantum emitters or to measure the multiexciton quantum yield of emitters that can simultaneously host multiple excitations – such as quantum dots – by evaluating the value of g (2) (τ = 0). Accumulating enough photons to accurately calculate this value is time consuming and could be accelerated by fitting of few-shot photon correlations. Here, we develop an uncertainty-aware, deep adversarial autoencoder ensemble (AAE) that reconstructs noise-free g (2) (τ) functions from noise-dominated, few-shot inputs. The model is trained with simulated g (2) (τ) functions that are facilely generated by Poisson sampling time bins. The AAE reconstructions are performed orders-of-magnitude faster, with reconstruction errors and estimates of g (2) (τ = 0) that are lower in variance and similar in accuracy compared to Maximum likelihood estimation and Levenberg-Marquardt least-squares fitting approaches, for simulated and experimentally measured few-shot g (2) (τ) functions (~100 two-photon events) of InP/ZnS/ZnSe and CdS/CdSe/CdS quantum dots. The deep-ensemble model comprises eight individual autoencoders, allowing for probabilistic reconstructions of noise-free g (2) (τ) functions, and we show that the predicted variance scales inversely with number of shots, with comparable uncertainties to computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the advantage of machine learning models to perform uncertainty-aware, fast, and accurate reconstructions of simple Poisson-distributed photon correlation functions, allowing for on-the-fly reconstructions and accelerated materials characterization of solid-state quantum emitters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistical analysis of failure data on controllers and SSME turbine blade failures

The expressions for the maximum likelihood functions are given when the failure data are censored at a given point or at multiple points, or when the data come in groups. Different models applicable to failure data are presented with their characteristics. A graphical method of distinguishing different models by using cumulative hazard fucnction is discussed. For the failure data on controllers the model is determined by cumulative hazard function and chi-square goodness of fit. Using the Weibull Model the maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the failure rate parameter are obtained. The confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and B1 are determined. Similarly, for the data on Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) blade failures the maximum likelihood estimators are obtained for the Weibull parameters. The variances, confidence intervals, meantime between failures, and reliability are determined. The analysis is performed under assumption of grouped data as well as randomly placed data.

Patil, S. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Hybrid Method for Tensor Decompositions that Leverages Stochastic and Deterministic Optimization

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method that uses stochastic and deterministic search to compute the maximum likelihood estimator of a low-rank count tensor with Poisson loss via state-of-theart local methods. Our approach is inspired by Simulated Annealing for global optimization and allows for fine-grain parameter tuning as well as adaptive updates to algorithm parameters. We present numerical results that indicate our hybrid approach can compute better approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator with less computation than the state-of-the-art methods by themselves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1975

Acreage estimation, feature selection, and signature extension dependent upon the maximum likelihood decision rule

A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used for the analysis of agricultural remote sensor data. The m-class probability of misclassification is estimated using unlabeled test samples and labeled training samples. A bound on the variance of a proposed unbiased estimator of the m-class probability of error is derived. The particular case in which each class density is assumed to be a mixture of multivariate normal densities is considered. The extension of spectral signatures in space and time is discussed.

Quirein, J. A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Source shape estimation for neutron imaging systems using convolutional neural networks

Neutron imaging systems are important diagnostic tools for characterizing the physics of inertial confinement fusion reactions at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). In particular, neutron images give diagnostic information on the size, symmetry, and shape of the fusion hot spot and surrounding cold fuel. Images are formed via collection of neutron flux from the source using a system of aperture arrays and scintillator-based detectors. Currently, reconstruction of fusion source geometry from the collected neutron images is accomplished by solving a computationally intensive maximum likelihood estimation problem via expectation maximization. In contrast, it is often useful to have simple representations of the overall source geometry that can be computed quickly. In this work, we develop convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to reconstruct the outer contours of simple source geometries. We compare the performance of the CNN for penumbral and pinhole data and provide experimental demonstrations of our methods on both non-noisy and noisy data.

Machine learning, neutron imaging, source reconstr↗
NASA NTRS1974

Identification of aircraft stability and control derivatives in the presence of turbulence

A maximum likelihood estimator for a linear system with state and observation noise is developed to determine stability and control derivatives from flight data obtained in the presence of turbulence. The formulation for the longitudinal short-period mode is presented briefly, including a special case that greatly simplifies the problem if the measurement noise on one signal is negligible. The effectiveness and accuracy of the technique are assessed by applying it first to simulated flight data, in which the true parameter values and state noise are known, then to actual flight data obtained in turbulence. The results are compared with data obtained in smooth air and with wind-tunnel data. The complete maximum likelihood estimator, which accounts for both state and observation noise, is shown to give the most accurate estimate of the stability and control derivatives from flight data obtained in turbulence. It is superior to the techniques that ignores state noise and to the simplified method that neglects the measurement noise on the angle-of-attack signal.

Iliff, K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A decision directed detector for the phase incoherent Gaussian channel

A vector digital signalling scheme is proposed for simultaneous adaptive data transmission and phase estimation. The use of maximum likelihood estimation methods predicts a better performance than the phase-locked loop. The phase estimate is shown to converge to the true value, so that the adaptive nature of the detector effectively achieves phase acquisition and improvement in performance. No separate synchronization interval is required and phase fluctuations can be tracked simultaneously with the transmission of information.

Kazakos, D.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Estimation from incomplete multinomial data

The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.

Credeur, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Flight test experience with an adaptive control system using a maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique

The flight test performance of an adaptive control system for the F-8 DFBW aircraft is summarized. The adaptive system is based on explicit identification of surface effectiveness parameters which are used for gain scheduling in a command augmentation system. Performance of this control law under various design parameter variations is presented. These include variations in test signal level, sample rate, and identification channel structure. Flight performance closely matches analysis and simulation predictions from previous references.

Hartmann, G.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Maximum-Likelihood Parameter-Estimation Algorithm

Efficient version of maximum-likelihood algorithm devised for calculating normal-mode frequencies and damping parameters of vibrating system from experimental data where both process noise and measurement noise present. Method applicable in vibration analysis of such complicated structures as vehicles, aircraft, and spacecraft. New algorithm simplification of existing maximum-likelihood formulation using Kalman filter that allows for both process and measurement noise.

Eldred, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Comparative Study of Co-Channel Interference Suppression Techniques

We describe three methods of combatting co-channel interference (CCI): a cross-coupled phase-locked loop (CCPLL); a phase-tracking circuit (PTC), and joint Viterbi estimation based on the maximum likelihood principle. In the case of co-channel FM-modulated voice signals, the CCPLL and PTC methods typically outperform the maximum likelihood estimators when the modulation parameters are dissimilar. However, as the modulation parameters become identical, joint Viterbi estimation provides for a more robust estimate of the co-channel signals and does not suffer as much from "signal switching" which especially plagues the CCPLL approach. Good performance for the PTC requires both dissimilar modulation parameters and a priori knowledge of the co-channel signal amplitudes. The CCPLL and joint Viterbi estimators, on the other hand, incorporate accurate amplitude estimates. In addition, application of the joint Viterbi algorithm to demodulating co-channel digital (BPSK) signals in a multipath environment is also discussed. It is shown in this case that if the interference is sufficiently small, a single trellis model is most effective in demodulating the co-channel signals.

Hamkins, Jon↗
NASA NTRS2012

Sensitivity Analysis for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO2 Retrieval

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a thermal infrared sensor able to retrieve the daily atmospheric state globally for clear as well as partially cloudy field-of-views. The AIRS spectrometer has 2378 channels sensing from 15.4 micrometers to 3.7 micrometers, of which a small subset in the 15 micrometers region has been selected, to date, for CO2 retrieval. To improve upon the current retrieval method, we extended the retrieval calculations to include a prior estimate component and developed a channel ranking system to optimize the channels and number of channels used. The channel ranking system uses a mathematical formalism to rapidly process and assess the retrieval potential of large numbers of channels. Implementing this system, we identifed a larger optimized subset of AIRS channels that can decrease retrieval errors and minimize the overall sensitivity to other iridescent contributors, such as water vapor, ozone, and atmospheric temperature. This methodology selects channels globally by accounting for the latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal dependencies of the subset. The new methodology increases accuracy in AIRS CO2 as well as other retrievals and enables the extension of retrieved CO2 vertical profiles to altitudes ranging from the lower troposphere to upper stratosphere. The extended retrieval method for CO2 vertical profile estimation using a maximum-likelihood estimation method. We use model data to demonstrate the beneficial impact of the extended retrieval method using the new channel ranking system on CO2 retrieval.

sensitivity analysis↗
NASA NTRS1987

Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗