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DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Classification of Cheatgrass Invasion in the Western United States Using Biophysical and Remote Sensing Data

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion is driving an emerging cycle of increased fire frequency and irreversible loss of wildlife habitat in the western US. Yet, detailed spatial information about its occurrence is still lacking for much of its presumably invaded range. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated success for remote sensing applications but is less tested on more challenging tasks like identifying biological invasions using sub-pixel phenomena. We compare two DL architectures and the more conventional Random Forest and Logistic Regression methods to improve upon a previous effort to map cheatgrass occurrence at >2% canopy cover. High-dimensional sets of biophysical, MODIS, and Landsat-7 ETM+ predictor variables are also compared to evaluate different multi-modal data strategies. All model configurations improved results relative to the case study and accuracy generally improved by combining data from both sensors with biophysical data. Cheatgrass occurrence is mapped at 30 m ground sample distance (GSD) with an estimated 78.1% accuracy, compared to 250-m GSD and 71% map accuracy in the case study. Furthermore, DL is shown to be competitive with well-established machine learning methods in a limited data regime, suggesting it can be an effective tool for mapping biological invasions and more broadly for multi-modal remote sensing applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Addressing amorphization and transgranular fracture of B 4 C through Si doping and TiB 2 microparticle reinforcing

Over the last two decades, many studies have contributed to improving our understanding of the brittle failure mechanisms of boron carbide and provided a road map for inhibiting the underlying mechanisms and improving the mechanical response of boron carbide. This paper provides a review of the design and processing approaches utilized to address the amorphization and transgranular fracture of boron carbide, which are mainly based on what we have found through 9 years of work in the field of boron carbides as armor ceramics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-angle Precession Electron Diffraction (MAPED): A Versatile Approach to 4D-STEM Precession

Precession of a converged beam during acquisition of a 4D-STEM dataset improves strain, orientation, and phase mapping accuracy by averaging over continuous angles of illumination. Precession experiments usually rely on integrated systems, where automatic alignments lead to fast, high-quality results. The dependence of these experiments on specific hardware and software is evident even when switching to nonintegrated detectors on a precession tool, as experimental set-up becomes challenging and time-consuming. Here, we introduce multi-angle precession electron diffraction (MAPED): a method to perform electron diffraction by collecting sequential 4D-STEM scans at different incident beam tilts. The multiple diffraction datasets are averaged together postacquisition, resulting in a single dataset that minimizes the impact of the curvature and orientation of the Ewald sphere relative to the crystal under study. Our results demonstrate that even four additional tilts improved measurement of material properties, namely strain and orientation, as compared to single-tilt 4D-STEM experiments. We show the versatility and flexibility of our MAPED approach with data collected on a number of microscopes with different hardware configurations and a variety of detectors.

4D-STEM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Solidification Effects in Additively Manufactured Si and SiGe Compositions

SiGe alloys have a proven track record as robust high-temperature thermoelectric materials, powering NASA missions like SNAP-10A, LES-9, and Voyager 1 and 2. Enhancing thermoelectric efficiency hinges on minimizing thermal conductivity while preserving electrical conductivity. Rapid solidification via LPBF can generate microstructural features such as subgrain cellular boundaries and twinning, which may help reduce thermal conductivity while preserving semiconducting behavior. Here, this study investigates the potential of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing to fabricate nanostructured Si and SiGe thermoelectric materials. High cooling rates (10 5 to 10 7 K/s) rates inherent to the LPBF process are conducive to forming such nanostructures. Moreover, this fabrication technique could also be suitable for fabricating complex geometries needed to achieve improved device level performance. Process mapping of commercial Si powder with irregular morphology was first performed to understand the LPBF processing behavior of this semiconductor material. Subsequent studies included in-house synthesized B-doped (p-type) Si7 8 Ge 22 spherical powder that was produced via ultrasonic atomization. Scan strategies involved multiple laser exposures to mitigate solidification cracking: a high density of >98% was achieved, but solidification cracking could not be fully eliminated. Subsequently, a high electrical resistivity (i.e., low conductivity) was observed, but the measured Seebeck coefficient, ∼230 μV/K @ 500 °C, proved that good semiconductor material was being fabricated. A subgrain cellular structure (5–10 μm) was observed as defined by Ge segregation to the intercellular boundaries. The remelting strategies helped lower the cooling rates in processing SiGe, but this still resulted in high residual stresses, which induced a remarkably high density of twins (78–95%) to accommodate the deformation. This unique grain structure offers an avenue for phonon scattering and potential improvements in thermoelectric performance.

figure of merit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Community Microgrid Assistance Partnership (C-MAP) [Slides]

This informational webinar, held on Nov. 11, 2024, covered the structure, technical focus, and eligibility criteria for the first Request for Proposals (RFP) released by the Community Microgrid Assistance Partnership (C-MAP). Eligible communities are invited to propose a community-based microgrid development or improvement project for funding and/or technical assistance. C-MAP is a program led by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity with management and coordination by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. C-MAP will bring together many of the organizations that are working to understand, improve, and implement advanced microgrid energy systems in underserved and Indigenous communities in remote areas, facilitating a new forum for engagement and collaboration. Wraparound services from regional organizations will support the participating communities in microgrid operations as it relates to advancing their energy goals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

How technoscientific knowledge advances: A Bell-Labs-inspired architecture

Understanding how science and technology advance has long been of interest to diverse scholarly communities. Thus far, however, such understanding has not been easy to map to, and thus to improve, the operational practice of research and development. Indeed, one might argue that the operational practice of research and development, particularly its exploratory research half, has become less effective in recent decades. In this paper, we describe a rethinking of how science and technology advance, one that is consistent with many (though not all) of the perspectives of the scholarly communities just mentioned, and one that helps bridge the divide between theory and practice. In conclusion, the result is an architecture we call “Bell's Dodecants,” to reflect its six mechanisms and two flavors, and their balanced nurturing at Bell Labs, the iconic 20th century industrial research and development laboratory.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Genome-wide approaches delineate the additive, epistatic, and pleiotropic nature of variants controlling fatty acid composition in peanut ( Arachis hypogaea L.)

Abstract The fatty acid composition of seed oil is a major determinant of the flavor, shelf-life, and nutritional quality of peanuts. Major QTLs controlling high oil content, high oleic content, and low linoleic content have been characterized in several seed oil crop species. Here, we employ genome-wide association approaches on a recently genotyped collection of 787 plant introduction accessions in the USDA peanut core collection, plus selected improved cultivars, to discover markers associated with the natural variation in fatty acid composition, and to explain the genetic control of fatty acid composition in seed oils. Overall, 251 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had significant trait associations with the measured fatty acid components. Twelve SNPs were associated with two or three different traits. Of these loci with apparent pleiotropic effects, 10 were associated with both oleic (C18:1) and linoleic acid (C18:2) content at different positions in the genome. In all 10 cases, the favorable allele had an opposite effect—increasing and lowering the concentration, respectively, of oleic and linoleic acid. The other traits with pleiotropic variant control were palmitic (C16:0), behenic (C22:0), lignoceric (C24:0), gadoleic (C20:1), total saturated, and total unsaturated fatty acid content. One hundred (100) of the significantly associated SNPs were located within 1000 kbp of 55 genes with fatty acid biosynthesis functional annotations. These genes encoded, among others: ACCase carboxyl transferase subunits, and several fatty acid synthase II enzymes. With the exception of gadoleic (C20:1) and lignoceric (C24:0) acid content, which occur at relatively low abundance in cultivated peanuts, all traits had significant SNP interactions exceeding a stringent Bonferroni threshold (α = 1%). We detected 7682 pairwise SNP interactions affecting the relative abundance of fatty acid components in the seed oil. Of these, 627 SNP pairs had at least one SNP within 1000 kbp of a gene with fatty acid biosynthesis functional annotation. We evaluated 168 candidate genes underlying these SNP interactions. Functional enrichment and protein-to-protein interactions supported significant interactions (P-value < 1.0E−16) among the genes evaluated. These results show the complex nature of the biology and genes underlying the variation in seed oil fatty acid composition and contribute to an improved genotype-to-phenotype map for fatty acid variation in peanut seed oil.

Otyama, Paul I.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mapathons versus automated feature extraction: a comparative analysis for strengthening immunization microplanning

Background: Social instability and logistical factors like the displacement of vulnerable populations, the difficulty of accessing these populations, and the lack of geographic information for hard-to-reach areas continue to serve as barriers to global essential immunizations (EI). Microplanning, a population-based, healthcare intervention planning method has begun to leverage geographic information system (GIS) technology and geospatial methods to improve the remote identification and mapping of vulnerable populations to ensure inclusion in outreach and immunization services, when feasible. We compare two methods of accomplishing a remote inventory of building locations to assess their accuracy and similarity to currently employed microplan line-lists in the study area. Methods: The outputs of a crowd-sourced digitization effort, or mapathon, were compared to those of a machine-learning algorithm for digitization, referred to as automatic feature extraction (AFE). The following accuracy assessments were employed to determine the performance of each feature generation method: (1) an agreement analysis of the two methods assessed the occurrence of matches across the two outputs, where agreements were labeled as “befriended” and disagreements as “lonely”; (2) true and false positive percentages of each method were calculated in comparison to satellite imagery; (3) counts of features generated from both the mapathon and AFE were statistically compared to the number of features listed in the microplan line-list for the study area; and (4) population estimates for both feature generation method were determined for every structure identified assuming a total of three households per compound, with each household averaging two adults and 5 children. Results: The mapathon and AFE outputs detected 92,713 and 53,150 features, respectively. A higher proportion (30%) of AFE features were befriended compared with befriended mapathon points (28%). The AFE had a higher true positive rate (90.5%) of identifying structures than the mapathon (84.5%). The difference in the average number of features identified per area between the microplan and mapathon points was larger (t = 3.56) than the microplan and AFE (t = -2.09) (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings indicate AFE outputs had higher agreement (i.e., befriended), slightly higher likelihood of correctly identifying a structure, and were more similar to the local microplan line-lists than the mapathon outputs. These findings suggest AFE may be more accurate for identifying structures in high-resolution satellite imagery than mapathons. However, they both had their advantages and the ideal method would utilize both methods in tandem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multimodal parameter spaces of a complex multi-channel neuron model

One of the most common types of models that helps us to understand neuron behavior is based on the Hodgkin–Huxley ion channel formulation (HH model). A major challenge with inferring parameters in HH models is non-uniqueness: many different sets of ion channel parameter values produce similar outputs for the same input stimulus. Such phenomena result in an objective function that exhibits multiple modes (i.e., multiple local minima). This non-uniqueness of local optimality poses challenges for parameter estimation with many algorithmic optimization techniques. HH models additionally have severe non-linearities resulting in further challenges for inferring parameters in an algorithmic fashion. To address these challenges with a tractable method in high-dimensional parameter spaces, we propose using a particular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which has the advantage of inferring parameters in a Bayesian framework. The Bayesian approach is designed to be suitable for multimodal solutions to inverse problems. We introduce and demonstrate the method using a three-channel HH model. We then focus on the inference of nine parameters in an eight-channel HH model, which we analyze in detail. We explore how the MCMC algorithm can uncover complex relationships between inferred parameters using five injected current levels. The MCMC method provides as a result a nine-dimensional posterior distribution, which we analyze visually with solution maps or landscapes of the possible parameter sets. The visualized solution maps show new complex structures of the multimodal posteriors, and they allow for selection of locally and globally optimal value sets, and they visually expose parameter sensitivities and regions of higher model robustness. We envision these solution maps as enabling experimentalists to improve the design of future experiments, increase scientific productivity and improve on model structure and ideation when the MCMC algorithm is applied to experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Orbital Motion, Variability, and Masses in the T Tauri Triple System

We present results from adaptive optics imaging of the T Tauri triple system obtained at the Keck and Gemini Observatories in 2015−2019. We fit the orbital motion of T Tau Sb relative to Sa and model the astrometric motion of their center of mass relative to T Tau N. Using the distance measured by Gaia, we derived dynamical masses of M{sub Sa}=2.05±0.14 M {sub ⊙} and M {sub Sb} = 0.43 ± 0.06 M{sub ⊙}. The precision in the masses is expected to improve with continued observations that map the motion through a complete orbital period; this is particularly important as the system approaches periastron passage in 2023. Based on published properties and recent evolutionary tracks, we estimate a mass of ∼2 M {sub ⊙} for T Tau N, suggesting that T Tau N is similar in mass to T Tau Sa. Narrowband infrared photometry shows that T Tau N remained relatively constant between late 2017 and early 2019 with an average value of K = 5.54 ± 0.07 mag. Using T Tau N to calibrate relative flux measurements since 2015, we found that T Tau Sa varied dramatically between 7.0 and 8.8 mag in the K band over timescales of a few months, while T Tau Sb faded steadily from 8.5 to 11.1 mag in the K band. Over the 27 yr orbital period of the T Tau S binary, both components have shown 3–4 mag of variability in the K band, relative to T Tau N.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Gravity Collective: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Electromagnetic Search for the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW190425

We present an ultraviolet to infrared search for the electromagnetic (EM) counterpart to GW190425, the second ever binary neutron star merger discovered by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. GW190425 was more distant and had a larger localization area than GW170817, so we use a new tool, Teglon, to redistribute the GW190425 localization probability in the context of galaxy catalogs within the final localization volume. We derive a 90th percentile area of 6688 deg 2 , a ∼1.5× improvement relative to the LIGO/Virgo map, and show how Teglon provides an order-of-magnitude boost to the search efficiency of small (≤1 deg 2 ) field-of-view instruments. We combine our data with a large, publicly reported imaging data set, covering 9078.59 deg 2 of unique area and 48.13% of the LIGO/Virgo-assigned localization probability, to calculate the most comprehensive kilonova (KN), short gamma-ray burst (sGRB) afterglow, and model-independent constraints on the EM emission from a hypothetical counterpart to GW190425 to date under the assumption that no counterpart was found in these data. If the counterpart were similar to AT 2017gfo, there would be a 28.4% chance of it being detected in the combined data set. We are relatively insensitive to an on-axis sGRB, and rule out a generic transient with a similar peak luminosity and decline rate as AT 2017gfo to 30% confidence. Finally, across our new imaging and publicly reported data, we find 28 candidate optical counterparts that we cannot rule out as being associated with GW190425, finding that four such counterparts discovered within the localization volume and within 5 days of merger exhibit luminosities consistent with a KN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-throughput characterization, correlation, and mapping of leaf photosynthetic and functional traits in the soybean ( Glycine max ) nested association mapping population

We report photosynthesis is a key target to improve crop production in many species including soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]. A challenge is that phenotyping photosynthetic traits by traditional approaches is slow and destructive. There is proof-of-concept for leaf hyperspectral reflectance as a rapid method to model photosynthetic traits. However, the crucial step of demonstrating that hyperspectral approaches can be used to advance understanding of the genetic architecture of photosynthetic traits is untested. To address this challenge, we used full-range (500–2,400 nm) leaf reflectance spectroscopy to build partial least squares regression models to estimate leaf traits, including the rate-limiting processes of photosynthesis, maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate, and maximum electron transport. In total, 11 models were produced from a diverse population of soybean sampled over multiple field seasons to estimate photosynthetic parameters, chlorophyll content, leaf carbon and leaf nitrogen percentage, and specific leaf area (with R 2 from 0.56 to 0.96 and root mean square error approximately <10% of the range of calibration data). We explore the utility of these models by applying them to the soybean nested association mapping population, which showed variability in photosynthetic and leaf traits. Genetic mapping provided insights into the underlying genetic architecture of photosynthetic traits and potential improvement in soybean. Notably, the maximum Rubisco carboxylation rate mapped to a region of chromosome 19 containing genes encoding multiple small subunits of Rubisco. We also mapped the maximum electron transport rate to a region of chromosome 10 containing a fructose 1,6-bisphosphatase gene, encoding an important enzyme in the regeneration of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate and the sucrose biosynthetic pathway. The estimated rate-limiting steps of photosynthesis were low or negatively correlated with yield suggesting that these traits are not influenced by the same genetic mechanisms and are not limiting yield in the soybean NAM population. Leaf carbon percentage, leaf nitrogen percentage, and specific leaf area showed strong correlations with yield and may be of interest in breeding programs as a proxy for yield. This work is among the first to use hyperspectral reflectance to model and map the genetic architecture of the rate-limiting steps of photosynthesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact Mapping for Geospatial Reasoning and Decision Making

Objective The reported study evaluated a novel approach to aiding geospatial reasoning and decision making. Background Impact mapping aims to alleviate the cognitive demands of geospatial tasks in part by externalizing data in the form of an integrated decision surface. This is achieved by aggregating data across multiple sources of information and visualizing their combined utility rather than objective measurements or individual utility. Previous research has shown that geospatial decisions improve when aided in this manner, but it remains unknown if dynamic decision making, often plagued by fatigue and anchoring bias, would benefit similarly. Method The experiment implemented a systematic manipulation of the presence of a composite impact map and the number of attributes present in a two-stage disaster relief, resource allocation task to investigate when and how impact mapping is beneficial or deleterious to decision makers. Results The presence of the composite impact map increased the utility of selected sites, increased re-planning decisions, reduced information display views, and reduced workload. Generally, the effect of the composite impact map was greater when participants were asked to evaluate more attributes. Conclusion Composite impact maps appear to improve repeated geospatial reasoning and minimize anchoring bias because they alleviate the cognitive demands otherwise necessary to interpret and maintain information from multiple attributes. Application Data visualization techniques, such as impact mapping, can improve repeated geospatial decision making in environments that include high cognitive demand.

Illingworth, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

2D Dam-Break Analysis of L Lake and PAR Pond Dams Using HEC-RAS

In 1991 a dam-break study was conducted for the high hazard dams located at L Lake and PAR Pond on the Savannah River Site. Two scenarios were considered, over topping from a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), and a fair weather dam-break for either or both dams. Unfortunately, no inundation map was developed from the study. The purpose of this project was to redo the original dam-break study with improved data and methodology to generate Inundation maps to assist with emergency response and evacuation plans. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) is a free to download river analysis modeling program developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers capable of 1D and 2D hydraulic calculations. Version 5.0.7 (released March 2019) was used for this project. Digital elevation models for the area were retrieved from the US Geological Survey database and converted to a .hdf file within the program. Then the 2D flood area was identified from the contours. Both L Lake and PAR Pond were inputted as 1D storage areas because DEM data does not contain elevation values under water bodies. An elevation vs volume curve was available for both storage areas. Initial elevations were set for both scenarios. Both dams are earthen dams. The Steel Creek dam at L Lake has 6 ft diameter conduit with an upper and lower sluice gate. PAR pond dam consist of a weir and sluice gate connected to an 8 x 8 ft channel. Both outlets were modeled with a pool elevation vs discharge curve. The steel creek dam sluice gates were assumed to be fully open in all cases. As in the previous study, the dams were set to breach when they were overtopped by 1.5 ft during PMF conditions (Figure 1). A fair weather breach was set to be due to a piping failure (Figure 1). In the dual dam break during fair weather conditions the PAR pond dam fails 3 hours after Steel Creek to achieve maximum flooding in the down stream reaches. Simulation was run 3 days for each case and with a 1 minute computational interval. Maximum flooding occurs under PMF conditions with the failure of both dams. PAR pond dam fails first 16 hours and 32 minutes after the start of the simulation with the Steel creek dam failing 6 minutes later. In all cases, the bridges and roads spanning Steel Creek and Lower Three Runs will be inundated and potentially washed away. The Burtons Ferry Highway south of the storage areas will be partially flooded during PMF failure, dual fair weather failure, and PAR pond failure under fair weather conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploiting Colorimetry for Fidelity in Data Visualization

Advances in multimodal characterization methods fuel the generation of increasing immense hyper-dimensional data sets. Color mapping is employed for conveying higher dimensional data in two-dimensional (2D) representations for human consumption without relying on multiple projections. How one constructs these color maps, however, critically affects how accurately one perceives data. For simple scalar fields, perceptually uniform color maps and color selection have been shown to improve data readability and interpretation across research fields. In this work, we review core concepts underlying the design of perceptually uniform color maps and extend the concepts from scalar fields to two-dimensional vector fields and three-component composition fields frequently found in materials-chemistry research to enable high-fidelity visualization. Additionally, we develop the software tools PAPUC and CMPUC to enable researchers to utilize these colorimetry principles and employ perceptually uniform color spaces for rigorously meaningful color mapping of higher dimensional data representations. Last, we demonstrate how these approaches deliver immediate improvements in data readability and interpretation in microscopies and spectroscopies routinely used in discerning materials structure, chemistry, and properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

When less is more: How increasing the complexity of machine learning strategies for geothermal energy assessments may not lead toward better estimates

Previous moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resource assessments of the western United States utilized data-driven methods and expert decisions to estimate resource favorability. Although expert decisions can add confidence to the modeling process by ensuring reasonable models are employed, expert decisions also introduce human and, thereby, model bias. This bias can present a source of error that reduces the predictive performance of the models and confidence in the resulting resource estimates. Our study aims to develop robust data-driven methods with the goals of reducing bias and improving predictive ability. We present and compare nine favorability maps for geothermal resources in the western United States using data from the U.S. Geological Survey's 2008 geothermal resource assessment. Two favorability maps are created using the expert decision-dependent methods from the 2008 assessment (i.e., weight-of-evidence and logistic regression). With the same data, we then create six different favorability maps using logistic regression (without underlying expert decisions), XGBoost, and support-vector machines paired with two training strategies. The training strategies are customized to address the inherent challenges of applying machine learning to the geothermal training data, which have no negative examples and severe class imbalance. We also create another favorability map using an artificial neural network. We demonstrate that modern machine learning approaches can improve upon systems built with expert decisions. We also find that XGBoost, a non-linear algorithm, produces greater agreement with the 2008 results than linear logistic regression without expert decisions, because the expert decisions in the 2008 assessment rendered the otherwise linear approaches non-linear despite the fact that the 2008 assessment used only linear methods. The F1 scores for all approaches appear low (F1 score < 0.10), do not improve with increasing model complexity, and, therefore, indicate the fundamental limitations of the input features (i.e., training data). Until improved feature data are incorporated into the assessment process, simple non-linear algorithms (e.g., XGBoost) perform equally well or better than more complex methods (e.g., artificial neural networks) and remain easier to interpret.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗