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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Long-term effects of thinning and woody control on longleaf pine plantation development, understory abundance, and tree damage from an ice storm

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) plantations have been established across the southeastern United States as the first step in restoring the declining savanna ecosystem, yet their long-term stability and development to open canopied woodlands may depend on early density and vegetation management treatments. Commercial thinning (CT) was applied in 2012 (year 18) to a long-term study of longleaf pine community restoration at the Savannah River Site near Aiken, SC to increase abundance of herb species. Although precommercial thinning (PCT) and woody vegetation control increased herb species cover during the first five years of the study, measurements from years 17 to 22 indicated a continuing decline in their cover since year 9 despite application of CT in year 18. Herb species richness, however, increased from 21 to 43 species per 100 m2 area during the last six years of the study, likely a result of disturbances associated with CT and an ice storm in year 20. Application of PCT in 1994, when the plantations were 8–11 years old, reduced their susceptibility to stem bending and breakage from the ice storm, which occurred 20 years later in 2014. Measured 5 months before the storm, pine height: dbh ratio (HD) averaged 78 and 90 for trees growing with and without PCT, respectively, and stem breakage (% of trees) from the ice storm increased linearly (r2 = 0.53) with HD. Pine mortality from the combined effects of glaze ice and wind differed with (28%) versus without (45%) PCT, indicating that long-term stability of longleaf pine plantations depends on early density management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Short- and long-term responses of photosynthetic capacity to temperature in four boreal tree species in a free-air warming and rainfall manipulation experiment

Abstract High latitude forests cope with considerable variation in moisture and temperature at multiple temporal scales. To assess how their photosynthetic physiology responds to short- and long-term temperature variation, we measured photosynthetic capacity for four tree species growing in an open-air experiment in the boreal-temperate ecotone `Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger' (B4WarmED). The experiment factorially manipulated temperature above- and below-ground (ambient, +3.2 °C) and summer rainfall (ambient, 40% removal). We measured A/Ci curves at 18, 25 and 32 °C for individuals of two boreal (Pinus banksiana Lamb., Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and two temperate species (Pinus strobus L., Acer rubrum L.) experiencing the long-term warming and/or reduced-rainfall conditions induced by our experimental treatments. We calculated the apparent photosynthetic capacity descriptors VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci and their ratio for each measurement temperate. We hypothesized that (i) VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci would be down-regulated in plants experiencing longer term (e.g., weeks to months) warming and reduced rainfall (i.e., have lower values at a given measurement temperature), as is sometimes found in the literature, and that (ii) plants growing at warmer temperatures or from warmer ranges would show greater sensitivity (steeper slope) to short-term (minutes to hours) temperature variation. Neither hypothesis was supported as a general trend across the four species, as there was not a significant main effect (across species) of either warming or rainfall reduction on VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci. All species markedly increased VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci (and decreased their ratio) with short-term increases in temperature (i.e., contrasting values at 18, 25 and 32 °C), and those responses were independent of long-term treatments and did not differ among species. The Jmax,Ci:VCmax,Ci ratio was, however, significantly lower across species in warmed and reduced rainfall treatments. Collectively, these results suggest that boreal trees possess considerable short-term plasticity that may allow homeostasis of VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci to a longer term temperature treatment. Our results also caution against extrapolating results obtained under controlled and markedly contrasting temperature treatments to responses of photosynthetic parameters to more modest temperature changes expected in the near-term with climate warming in field conditions.

Forestry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-term impact of electrification and retrofits of the U.S residential building in diverse locations

The U.S. buildings sector contributes 30% of operational carbon emissions, with residential buildings accounting for 56%. Reducing residential carbon emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero carbon goal. While many studies examine energy efficiency retrofit (EER) and electrification, few explore their long-term impacts across diverse climates and dynamic grid clean energy penetrations, as well as their economic effects on households. Here, this study proposes a method to assess how EER and electrification affect long-term decarbonization and economics across different climates, focusing on carbon emissions, energy burden (the percentage of household income spent on energy), and payback period in four locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, and Great Falls. The study also introduces the concept of implicit energy burden by considering investment costs. Results show that while electrification can reduce long-term emissions with increased clean energy penetration, it may not always achieve decarbonization due to mismatches between clean energy availability and demand. In cooling-dominant locations, electrification lowers energy burden and peak demand, but in heating-dominant locations, it increases energy burden to 8.24%, raises peak demand by 632.78%, and shifts it from summer to winter. After integrating investment costs, the implicit energy burden can reach 8.35% in cold climates. For already highly electrified buildings in Denver and Great Falls, the payback period of EER measures can be shortened by up to 48.98%. The study highlights a tradeoff between decarbonization and energy burden alleviation, showing that while EER measures can reduce the energy burden, they only achieve one-quarter of the carbon emission reduction of electrification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Novel and Rugged Electromagnetic Wireless System for Long-Term Subsurface CO₂ Plume Monitoring and Saturation Mapping

Novel and rugged electromagnetic wireless system for long-term subsurface CO₂ plume monitoring and saturation mapping is a Phase I SBIR project led by Cyentech Consulting LLC to develop a permanently installed, outside-casing electromagnetic monitoring system for long-term carbon storage monitoring. The project addresses a major challenge in carbon capture and storage: the need for reliable, cable-free downhole monitoring that can detect CO₂ plume movement and saturation changes without compromising well integrity through casing perforations or external umbilical cables.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of Long-Term Geochemical Change in Bentonite Based on the Interpretative THMC Model of the FEBEX In Situ Test

Since nuclear energy is crucial in the decarbonization of the energy supply, one hurdle to remove is the handling of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). Disposal of HLW in a deep geological repository has long been deemed a viable permanent option. In the design of a deep geological repository, compacted bentonite is the most commonly proposed buffer material. Predicting the long-term chemical evolution in bentonite, which is important for the safety assessment of a repository, has been challenging because of the complex coupled processes. Models for large-scale tests and predictions based on such models have been some of the best practices for such purposes. An 18-year-long in situ test with two dismantling events provided a unique set of chemical data that allowed for studying chemical changes in bentonite. In this paper, we first developed coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) models to interpret the geochemical data collected in the in situ test and then extended the THMC model to 200 years to make long-term prediction of the geochemical evolution of bentonite. The interpretive coupled THMC model shows that the geochemical profiles were strongly affected by THM processes such as evaporation/condensation, porosity change caused by swelling, permeability change, and the shape of concentration profiles for major cations were largely controlled by transport processes, but concentration levels were regulated by chemical reactions, and the profiles of some species such as pH, bicarbonate, and sulfate were dominated by these reactions. The long-term THMC model showed that heating prolongs the time that bentonite becomes fully saturated in the area close to the heater/canister; however, once the bentonite becomes fully saturated, high concentrations of ions in bentonite near the heater, which was observed in the field test, will disappear; illitization continues for 50 years but will not proceed further.

Zheng, Liange↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long‐term growth and persistence of granitic inselbergs in a semi‐arid cratonic landscape

Granitic inselbergs are enduring landforms that punctuate planation surfaces in tectonically stable settings, yet the mechanisms and timescales of their persistence remain debated. Here, in this study, we present a multinuclide cosmogenic dataset ( 10 Be, 26 Al and 21 Ne) from bedrock, fluvial sediments and planation surfaces in the semi-arid Central Ceará Domain, north-eastern Brazil, to quantify denudation rates and reconstruct the long-term dynamics of residual relief formation. This triple-nuclide approach enables independent validation of denudation contrasts and long-term exposure histories, providing quantitative constraints on inselberg evolution that a single-nuclide approach could not resolve. Bedrock denudation rates (1–4 m Myr −1 ) are systematically lower than basin-wide rates (8–14 m Myr −1 ), revealing a regional pattern of vertical differential denudation. When combined with summit elevations and surface exposure ages of up to 5 Myr, these contrasts suggest that cumulative relief growth has been operating over timescales of tens of millions of years (1–57 Myr). Morphological and structural observations further indicate localized mass wasting and heterogeneous erosion styles, modulated by rock fabric and joint density. Cosmogenic nuclide inventories in detrital sediments reveal partial reworking from older sediment stocks, including surface pebbles with exposure ages up to 5 Myr, which record multistage of burial and re-exposure histories and reflect episodic remobilization in low-connectivity, semi-arid catchments. Rather than static relicts of ancient surfaces, inselbergs in this cratonic setting emerge as dynamic landforms actively sustained by slow but persistent differential denudation. These results provide new constraints on long-term cratonic landscape evolution and underscore the interplay between lithological resistance, structural inheritance and sediment transfer processes in sustaining topographic relief. They also call for a critical reassessment of classical inselberg models, suggesting that hybrid mechanisms, rather than single-process paradigms, more accurately capture the complexity of residual landform development in cratonic interiors.

Cosmogenic nuclides↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward Long-Term Accurate and Continuous Monitoring of Nitrate in Wastewater Using Poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE)–Solid-State Ion-Selective Electrodes (S-ISEs)

Long-term accurate and continuous monitoring of nitrate (NO 3 – ) concentration in wastewater and groundwater is critical for determining treatment efficiency and tracking contaminant transport. Current nitrate monitoring technologies, including colorimetric, chromatographic, biometric, and electrochemical sensors, are not feasible for continuous monitoring. In this work, we addressed this challenge by modifying NO 3 – solid-state ion-selective electrodes (S-ISEs) with poly(tetrafluoroethylene) (PTFE, (C 2 F 4 ) n ). The PTFE-loaded S-ISE membrane polymer matrix reduces water layer formation between the membrane and electrode/solid contact, while paradoxically, the even more hydrophobic PTFE-loaded S-ISE membrane prevents bacterial attachment despite the opposite approach of hydrophilic modifications in other antifouling sensor designs. Specifically, an optimal ratio of 5% PTFE in the S-ISE polymer matrix was determined by a series of characterization tests in real wastewater. Five percent of PTFE alleviated biofouling to the sensor surface by enhancing the negative charge (–4.5 to –45.8 mV) and lowering surface roughness (Ra: 0.56 ± 0.02 nm). It simultaneously mitigated water layer formation between the membrane and electrode by increasing hydrophobicity (contact angle: 104°) and membrane adhesion and thus minimized the reading (mV) drift in the baseline sensitivity (“data drifting”). Long-term accuracy and durability of 5% PTFE-loaded NO 3 – S-ISEs were well demonstrated in real wastewater over 20 days, an improvement over commercial sensor longevity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Translocation of Long-Term Captive Eastern Box Turtles and the Efficacy of Soft-Release: Implications for Turtle Confiscations

Translocation, the human mediated movement of organisms, is an important tool to conserve wildlife populations, and turtles are commonly subject to this management action. One potential source stock for turtle translocations are animals confiscated from the illegal wildlife trade or otherwise held in captivity. There is limited information, however, on the post-release behavior and survival of these animals. We monitored 26 translocated long-term captive (i.e., former pet) Eastern Box Turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) to assess their survivorship, space use, and the effects of soft-release (penning) on site fidelity. We found long-term captives displayed high first-year survivorship (88.5–92.3%) and similar space use to resident turtles, and that soft-release was effective at reducing post-release movements. Furthermore, our study indicates long-term captive turtles may be suitable for release and provides insights for how confiscated turtles may best contribute to conservation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Southern Ocean (SO) atmosphere have significant impacts on cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Yet, INP prediction skill in climate models remains poorly understood, in part because of the lack of long-term measurements. Here we show, for the first time, how model-simulated INP concentrations compare with year-round INP measurements during the Macquarie Island Cloud Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign from 2017–2018. We simulate immersion-mode INP concentrations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) by combining simulated aerosols with recently developed deterministic INP parameterizations and the native classical nucleation theory (CNT) for mineral dust in E3SMv1. Because MICRE did not collect aerosol measurements of super-micron particles, which are more effective ice nucleators, we evaluate the model's aerosol fields at other high-latitude sites using long-term in situ observations of dust and sea spray aerosol. We find that the model underestimates dust and overestimates sea spray aerosol concentrations by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for most of the high-latitude sites in the Southern Hemisphere. We next compare predicted INP concentrations with concentrations of INPs collected on filter samples (typically for 2 or 3 d) and processed offline using the Colorado State University ice spectrometer (IS) in immersion freezing mode. We find that when deterministic parameterizations for both dust and sea spray INPs are used, simulated INPs are within a factor of 10 of observed INPs more than 60 % of the time during summer. Our results also indicate that the E3SM's current treatment of mineral dust immersion freezing in the SO is impacted by compensating biases – an underprediction of dust amount was compensated by an overprediction of its effectiveness as INPs. We also perform idealized droplet freezing experiments to quantify the implications of the time-dependent behavior assumed by the E3SM's CNT-parameterization and compare with the ice spectrometer observations. We find that the E3SM CNT 10 s diagnostic used in this study is a reasonable approximation of the exact formulation of CNT, when applied to ice spectrometer measurements in low-INP conditions similar to Macquarie Island. However, the linearized 10 s diagnostic underestimates the exact formula by an order of magnitude or more in places with high-INP conditions like the Sahara. Overall, our findings suggest that it is important to correct the biases in E3SM's simulated dust life cycle and update E3SM's INP parameterizations. INP prediction errors of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude can have considerable impacts on the simulated cloud and radiative properties in global climate models. On comparing INP concentrations during MICRE against ship-based campaigns, Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) and Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE), we find that INPs from the latter are significantly higher only in regions closer to Macquarie Island. This alludes to the fact that physical, chemical and biological processes affecting INP concentrations as stimulated by the island could be partly responsible for the high INP concentrations observed at Macquarie Island during the MICRE campaign. Therefore, improvements to both aerosol simulation and INP parameterizations are required to adequately simulate INPs and their cloud impacts in E3SM. It will be helpful to include a parallel measurement of the size-resolved aerosol composition and explore opportunities for long-term measurement platforms in future field campaigns studying INP sources in remote marine regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Decreased Soil Organic Matter in a Long-Term Soil Warming Experiment Lowers Soil Water Holding Capacity and Affects Soil Thermal and Hydrological Buffering

Long-term soil warming can decrease soil organic matter (SOM), resulting in self-reinforcing feedback to the global climate system. We investigated additional consequences of SOM reduction for soil water holding capacity (WHC) and soil thermal and hydrological buffering. At a long-term soil warming experiment in a temperate forest in the northeastern United States, we suspended the warming treatment for 104 days during the summer of 2017. The formerly heated plot remained warmer (+0.39 °C) and drier (-0.024 cm 3 H 2 O cm -3 soil) than the control plot throughout the suspension. We measured decreased SOM content (-0.184 g SOM g -1 for O horizon soil, -0.010 g SOM g -1 for A horizon soil) and WHC (-0.82 g H 2 O g -1 for O horizon soil, -0.18 g H2O g -1 for A horizon soil) in the formerly heated plot relative to the control plot. Reduced SOM content accounted for 62% of the WHC reduction in the O horizon and 22% in the A horizon. We investigated differences in SOM composition as a possible explanation for the remaining reductions with Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra. We found FTIR spectra that correlated more strongly with WHC than SOM, but those particular spectra did not differ between the heated and control plots, suggesting that SOM composition affects WHC but does not explain treatment differences in this study. We conclude that SOM reductions due to soil warming can reduce WHC and hydrological and thermal buffering, further warming soil and decreasing SOM. This feedback may operate in parallel, and perhaps synergistically, with carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long‐term drench of exopolysaccharide from Leuconostoc pseudomesenteroides XG5 protects against type 1 diabetes of NOD mice via stimulating GLP ‐1 secretion

Abstract BACKGROUND Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease that results in the specific destruction of insulin‐producing beta cells in the pancreas. The aim of this study was to investigate the mechanism of exopolysaccharide from Leuconostoc pseudomesenteroides XG5 (XG5 EPS) against type 1 diabetes. RESULTS Long‐term drench of XG5 EPS delayed the onset of autoimmune diabetes and had fewer islets with high‐grade infiltration (an insulitis score of 3 or 4) than untreated NOD mice. Oral administration of 50 mg kg −1 d −1 XG5 EPS increased the insulin and glucagon‐like peptide‐1 (GLP‐1) levels of serum, stimulated GLP‐1 secretion and upregulated gcg mRNA expression of colon in NOD mice. Moreover, oral administration of 50 mg kg −1 d −1 XG5 EPS significantly increased total short‐chain fatty acids levels in the colon contents, especially those of acetic acid and butyric acid. In NCI‐H716 cells, 500 and 1000 μmol L −1 sodium butyrate promoted the secretion of GLP‐1 and upregulated the mRNA expression of gcg and PC3 , while XG5 EPS and sodium acetate did not stimulate the GLP‐1 secretion. Therefore, long‐term drench of XG5 EPS delayed the onset of autoimmune diabetes, which may be directly correlated with the increase of butyrate in the colon of NOD mice. CONCLUSION Long‐term drench of 50 mg kg −1 d −1 XG5 EPS promoted the expression and secretion of GLP‐1 by increasing the production of butyric acid, thereby delaying T1D onset in NOD mice. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Pan, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ecogenomics reveals community interactions in a long-term methanogenic bioreactor and a rapid switch to sulfate-reducing conditions

ABSTRACT The anaerobic digestion of wastes is globally important in the production of methane (CH4) as a biofuel. When sulfate is present, sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) are stimulated, competing with methanogens for common substrates, which decreases CH4 production and results in the formation of corrosive, odorous hydrogen sulfide gas (H2S). Here, we show that a population of SRB within a methanogenic bioreactor fed only butyrate for years immediately (within hours) responded to sulfate availability and shifted the microbial community dynamics within the bioreactor. By mapping shotgun metatranscriptomes to metagenome-assembled genomes, we shed light on the transcriptomic responses of key community members in response to increased sulfate provision. We link these short-term transcriptional responses to long-term niche partitioning using comparative metagenomic analyses. Our results suggest that sulfate provision supports a syntrophic butyrate oxidation community that disfavors poly-β-hydroxyalkanoate storage and that hydrogenotrophic SRB populations effectively exclude obligately hydrogenotrophic, but not aceticlastic, methanogens when sulfate is readily available. These findings elucidate key ecological dynamics between SRB, methanogens and syntrophic butyrate-oxidizing bacteria, which can be applied to a variety of engineered and natural systems.

St. James, Andrew R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Transcriptional Response of Soil Bacteria to Long-Term Warming and Short-Term Seasonal Fluctuations in a Terrestrial Forest

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important carbon store, and this carbon is vulnerable to microbial degradation with climate warming. After 30 years of experimental warming, carbon stocks in a temperate mixed deciduous forest were observed to be reduced by 30% in the heated plots relative to the controls. In addition, soil respiration was seasonal, as was the warming treatment effect. We therefore hypothesized that long-term warming will have higher expressions of genes related to carbohydrate and lipid metabolism due to increased utilization of recalcitrant carbon pools compared to controls. Because of the seasonal effect of soil respiration and the warming treatment, we further hypothesized that these patterns will be seasonal. We used RNA sequencing to show how the microbial community responds to long-term warming (~30 years) in Harvard Forest, MA. Total RNA was extracted from mineral and organic soil types from two treatment plots (+5°C heated and ambient control), at two time points (June and October) and sequenced using Illumina NextSeq technology. Treatment had a larger effect size on KEGG annotated transcripts than on CAZymes, while soil types more strongly affected CAZymes than KEGG annotated transcripts, though effect sizes overall were small. Although, warming showed a small effect on overall CAZymes expression, several carbohydrate-associated enzymes showed increased expression in heated soils (~68% of all differentially expressed transcripts). Further, exploratory analysis using an unconstrained method showed increased abundances of enzymes related to polysaccharide and lipid metabolism and decomposition in heated soils. Compared to long-term warming, we detected a relatively small effect of seasonal variation on community gene expression. Together, these results indicate that the higher carbohydrate degrading potential of bacteria in heated plots can possibly accelerate a self-reinforcing carbon cycle-temperature feedback in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

From Depletion to Restoration: Lessons From Long‐Term Monitoring of Carbon Gains and Losses in Cropping Systems

As global atmospheric CO 2 rapidly approaches a key tipping point, there is an urgent need to implement strategies to reverse this pattern. A generally accepted understanding of carbon (C) in agricultural fields includes: (H1) substantial C loss occurs when natural vegetation is converted to crops, (H2) soils typically reach a steady-state C concentration under contemporary practices, and (H3) improved management or crop selection can enhance soil C stocks over time. Significant variability exists, but studies consistently show large C losses from agricultural ecosystems, supporting H1. Although steady-state C levels (H2) are commonly assumed, measuring C gains or losses in mature agroecosystems is challenging. Efforts to increase soil C storage (H3) have limited data due to the diversity of potential practices, compounded by substantial variability in soil C measurements. Here, long-term (7–17 year) ecosystem C flux data from diverse cropping systems revealed that conventionally tilled annual row crops (maize and soybean) act as significant long-term atmospheric C sources, challenging H2. Furthermore, conservation tillage practices reduced C losses compared with conventional tillage but showed minimal evidence for long-term ecosystem C storage, even after 20+ years. This indicates that no-till practices reduce C losses but imply that no soil C is added, challenging H3. By contrast, perennial Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum, and restored tallgrass prairie systems store C at the ecosystem scale more effectively than minimally tilled annual row crops. Analysis over multiple years demonstrates significant ecosystem C storage with perennial crops, varying by species, starting in the first year of transition. These findings, although focused on one region, suggest that the assumptions of steady-state C levels and increased storage from conservation practices do not universally apply and that significant changes to agroecosystems are required to increase C storage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗