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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States: Results From and Methods Behind Bottom-Up Simulations of County-Specific Household Electric Vehicle Charging Load (Hourly 8760) Profiles Projected Through 2050 for Differentiated Household and Vehicle Types

This report documents enhancements made to the TEMPO (Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options TM ) model to project spatially, demographically, and temporally resolved national-scale EV charging load profiles and describes three scenarios and corresponding datasets created for the NREL demand-side grid (dsgrid) project in support of bulk power systems modeling. In brief, TEMPO was enhanced to disaggregate national and annual energy demand projections into household and county-level projections of passenger electric vehicle (EV) hourly charging load profiles (8760 profiles), accounting for consumer, travel, and temperature variations that impact EV energy demand. In alignment with NREL's forward-looking grid modeling, three scenarios for EV adoption covering 2020-2050 were created-- Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case, Electrification Futures Study (EFS) High Electrification, and All EV Sales by 2035 --and associated datasets have been included in the dsgrid platform for public use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

OPFLearnData: Dataset for Learning AC Optimal Power Flow

The datasets are resulting from OPFLearn.jl, a Julia package for creating AC OPF datasets. The package was developed to provide researchers with a standardized way to efficiently create AC OPF datasets that are representative of more of the AC OPF feasible load space compared to typical dataset creation methods. The OPFLearn dataset creation method uses a relaxed AC OPF formulation to reduce the volume of the unclassified input space throughout the dataset creation process. The dataset contains load profiles and their respective optimal primal and dual solutions. Load samples are processed using AC OPF formulations from PowerModels.jl. More information on the dataset creation method can be found in our publication, "OPF-Learn: An Open-Source Framework for Creating Representative AC Optimal Power Flow Datasets" and in the package website: https://github.com/NREL/OPFLearn.jl.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Port Cargo Handling Equipment in the United States

Electric port cargo handling equipment (eCHE) hourly load datasets for the top 25 U.S. cargo airports (by tonnage), as described in Polemis et al. (2025). Please cite as: Polemis, Katerina, Andrew Kotz, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Port Cargo Handling Equipment in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92141. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92141.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment in the United States

Electric airport ground support equipment (eGSE) hourly annual (8760) load datasets for the top 50 U.S. airports (by enplanements), as described in Liu et al. (2025). Please cite as: Liu, Bo, Kevin Robby, Jayaraj Rane, Adway Das, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Airport Ground Support Equipment in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92139. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92139.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Federal, State, and Municipal Electric Vehicle Fleets in the United States

Federal, state, and municipal electric vehicle fleet hourly load datasets at the Uber H3 hex, county, and city resolutions, as described in Singer et al. (2025). Please cite as: Singer, Mark, Cabell Hodge, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Federal, State, and Municipal Electric Vehicle Fleets in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92142. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92142.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

When Do Efficiency and Demand Flexibility Go Hand-in-hand?

Utilities have been experimenting with integrated demand side management (IDSM) programs since the 2000s. The potential benefits of improved program cost-effectiveness and customer engagement from combining energy efficiency (EE), demand flexibility (DF), and other distributed energy resources into an integrated customer offering have been recognized although there are several known regulatory and program administrative challenges. In addition, as buildings adopt EE measures, the baseline load profile change generally reduces the potential load that can be shed or shifted. This has been a significant technical barrier for customers and program implementers. However, it is a myth that EE always reduces DF. Load change from EE can be time-varying. Therefore, whether EE improves or reduces DF should be evaluated on an individual measure basis accounting for weather dependencies and interactions. For IDSM program design purpose, it is useful to understand how common EE features influence DF and the underlying building physics. In this paper, we use parametric simulations of a prototype medium office building to evaluate how various EE features influence DF, measured by a “demand decrease intensity” (W/ft2) metric. These EE features cover envelope characteristics, internal loads, and airside HVAC system. The parametric analysis shows that some efficient HVAC control measures will increase DF but not the traditional building envelope, lighting, and ventilation-related efficiency measures. These findings contribute to the technical basis for achieving enhanced energy benefits by packaging appropriate HVAC control measures in IDSM program design. Program developers should further validate these results in targeted pilot projects.

Yu, Lili↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeled Electricity Demand Profiles for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Hourly one-week electricity demand profiles for electric transit bus depots in the United States, as described in Liu et al. (2025). Please cite as: Liu, Bo, Tim Jonas, Kara Podkaminer, and Brennan Borlaug. 2025. Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-5400-92140. https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy25osti/92140.pdf

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Heat Recovery with Storage: Control Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of the Time-Independent Energy Recovery Plant Using Modelica

Heat recovery in large building central plants saves energy but traditionally requires simultaneous heating and cooling. The Time-Independent Energy Recovery (TIER) plant shifts this paradigm by integrating thermal energy storage (TES) to enable heat recovery regardless of concurrent demand, offering a highly efficient, space-saving solution to achieve California’s energy goals. However, its integration of heat recovery chillers, cooling-only chillers, cooling towers, and trim air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) creates growing control and sizing complexity. To overcome this, this study employs high-fidelity Modelica dynamic simulation to validate TIER control sequences and optimize equipment sizing. We translated the written Sequences of Operation into executable Control Description Language (CDL) to test logic against sub-hourly loads. This verification workflow successfully identified and resolved critical vulnerabilities, such as thermal storage freezing and equipment short-cycling, in a virtual environment prior to physical deployment. Then, the study analyzes TIER plant performance across three simulated building types in three locations, and a real building load profile, ensuring variety in heating and cooling loads, and simultaneity factors and explores sizing rules for the TES and ASHP capacity. The analysis shows that the TIER plant operates equipment efficiently leading to a plant SCOP of around 7.5 across all scenarios, higher than a traditional ASHP plant, and a viable pathway to de-risk complex system design and control through simulation to identify optimal designs that maximize energy efficiency, minimize operational costs, and ensure robust operation in varied environmental conditions, thereby facilitating the broader adoption of such a solution for large buildings.

Zanetti, Ettore↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing School Bus Electrification in Richmond, Virginia

School buses are an essential component of the transportation infrastructure, serving as a lifeline for students across the globe. However, the widespread use of diesel school buses has raised concerns about the health impact on millions of students exposed to harmful emissions daily. Recognizing this issue, school districts worldwide are urgently seeking cleaner energy alternatives. Electric school buses emerge as an environmentally friendly and sustainable option, fostering a healthier environment for both students and communities. However, school bus electrification faces the challenges of high upfront cost, cumbersome charging management, and constraints from power grids. To help school bus operators address those challenges, this study presents a data-driven analysis for school bus electrification. This study considered a real-world school bus system in Richmond, VA, and developed a mathematical programming model to analyze the system design, charging strategies, and charging load profiles for the electrification scenario. The study evaluated different charging strategies based on model outcomes, aiming to optimize efficiency and effectiveness. Ultimately, this research generated electric school bus charging demand profiles under various scenarios, shedding light on the feasibility and implications of transitioning to electric-powered school buses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Airport Ground Support Equipment Analysis

Ground support equipment (GSE) plays a critical role in providing services to aircraft at arrival and departure gates, ensuring smooth and efficient airport operations. As the airline industry seeks to reduce costs and expand energy options, electric GSE (eGSE) is emerging as a promising solution. This project examines the integration of eGSE into airport operations, addressing key considerations such as vehicle deployment, charging infrastructure, and grid impacts. We developed a flexible, bottom-up modeling framework to evaluate energy demands and infrastructure requirements across more than 300 U.S. airports, providing actionable insights to support electrification planning and implementation. The study focuses on eight major types of GSE with commercially available electric counterparts: aircraft tractors, ground power units, baggage tractors, belt loaders, cargo loaders, catering trucks, lavatory trucks, and water trucks. Project results include annual charging load profiles, total energy consumption, and the charger and fleet requirements for each airport.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flight Arrival Data for Each Airport

This dataset contains flight arrival data for each airport, which serves as the input for generating load profiles and estimating energy needs and fleet and charger requirements. ![image](distribution-flight-arrivals.png) Distribution of annual flight arrivals across different airport categories.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Putting Our Industry's Data to Work: A Case Study of Large-Scale Data Aggregation: Preprint

With increasing deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), Building Automation System (BAS) controls, Internet of Things (IoT) network devices, and data-driven evaluation, measurement, and verification studies, the building sector is currently generating a staggering amount of energy-related data. In the right hands, these data sets can contribute to increased comfort and energy savings for building occupants and a more reliable electrical grid; however, due to a combination of factors, including significant privacy concerns, much of the data that are presently generated and stored are not used outside of basic operational applications. In the past year, our team has dedicated over 2,000 person-hours to accessing building energy data for a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office. We sought whole-building or end-use (e.g., lighting) timeseries data at the individual-building or equipment level where possible or aggregated information, such as timeseries averages and quartiles by building type (e.g., office, retail, hospital), where sharing individual building information was not an option. We are additionally working with IoT and BAS data sets to derive information important to the project. We have assembled an extensive data set that will enable the development of publicly available end-use load profiles to benefit the U.S. building and electricity industries. Here we present an overview of the data set that we have assembled to date, the motivators and approaches that got us here, and the lessons we learned through our efforts. We also discuss work underway that presents additional options for future data access.

building energy data↗
DOE OSTI2021

OPFLearn.jl [SWR-21-109]

OPFLearn.jl is a Julia package for creating datasets for machine learning approaches to solving AC optimal power flow (AC OPF). It was developed to provide researchers with a standardized way to efficiently create AC OPF datasets that are representative of more of the AC OPF feasible load space compared to typical dataset creation methods. The OPFLearn dataset creation method uses a relaxed AC OPF formulation to reduce the volume of the unclassified input space throughout the dataset creation process. Over time this input space tightens around the relaxed AC OPF feasible region to increase the percentage of feasible load profiles found while uniformly sampling the input space. Load samples are processed using AC OPF formulations from PowerModels.jl. More information on the dataset creation method can be found in our publication, "OPF-Learn: An Open-Source Framework for Creating Representative AC Optimal Power Flow Datasets". To use OPFLearn.jl a PowerModels network data dictionary is required (can be loaded from Matpower ".m" files) to define the network the dataset is being created for.

Joswig-Jones, Trager↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Optimization and Control of a Hybrid Gas Turbine/sCO 2 Power System

During phase-I, the project team led by Echogen Power Systems (EPS) had two primary objectives based on investigating the application of gas turbines with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles. The first objective was to improve the overall efficiency and performance of a hybrid gas turbine/sCO 2 power system through a joint optimization of the two subsystems (gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle) using non-linear optimization techniques that simultaneously evaluate thermal performance of the combined cycle. The hybrid power system included several points of interaction, including (but not limited to) gas turbine exhaust, fuel heating, inlet chilling and turbine cooling. The second objective was to establish a baseline transient response model of the hybrid power system and a notional microgrid and begin steps to integrate the control systems of the three major elements (gas turbine, sCO 2 cycle and grid controller). The project team established a baseline performance for a combined cycle power plant using a production gas turbine and scaled sCO 2 power cycle only utilizing exhaust heat recovery. Echogen’s non-linear techno-economic optimization code was extended by adding gas turbine component models derived from a in-house developed gas turbine design code. With the two cycles coupled by the gas turbine exhaust, design parameters of both cycles were allowed to vary simultaneously to determine performance opportunity versus isolated designs. Returning to the baseline gas turbine/sCO 2 power cycle transient models: Echogen had in-house developed sCO 2 cycle transient model in GT-Suite system simulation software, and had partnered with Siemens Finspång for gas turbine transient model, and Siemens PTI group to provide micro-grid load profile as well as hybrid power cycle generated load (power and frequency) analysis. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a “black-box” functional mock-up interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in Finspång, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8°C. The transient model for sCO 2 power cycle was developed by Echogen in GT-SUITE 1D system simulation software platform. The basic CO 2 flow circuit has single-shaft turbomachinery with net 11.5 MW electrical power output at design conditions. The power turbine has a double-ended shaft with one end connected to synchronous generator through a fixed-ratio gearbox. The other end of power turbine is connected to the compressor through a continuously variable transmission. The major components of the sCO 2 power cycle modeled include air cooled condenser/cooler, CO 2 compressor, recuperator, two waste heat exchanger coils, power turbine, continuous variable transmission, gearbox and generator. Integration of SGT-750 transient model and sCO 2 power cycle transient model was done in Matlab Simulink. In the integrated model, the gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle interacted at two points, first one being the gas turbine exhaust gas flow rate and temperature, which were inputs to sCO 2 power cycle model. The second point was the distribution of micro-grid load demand signal between the SGT-750 generator and sCO 2 cycle generator. For a given combined-cycle load demand, the gas turbine load demand was equal to the total demand minus the sCO 2 cycle power generated. In the present study the integrated model was simulated for two cases of grid load demand: (i) for a step change, both positive-step and negative-step, in grid load demand (ii) for a micro-grid load demand curve provided by Siemens PTI group. Finally, the time series plots representing load demand versus integrated system response were presented including the sCO 2 power cycle control system performance plots. The actual generated power and frequency of both the generators, gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle, was supplied to Siemens PTI group for dynamic grid assessment, results of which are provided in appendices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗