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At least 109 records · Page 6

Fabrication, thermal analysis, and heavy ion irradiation resistance of epoxy matrix nanocomposites loaded with silane-functionalized ceria nanoparticles

This paper describes a detailed understanding of how nanofillers function as radiation barriers within the polymer matrix, and how their effectiveness is impacted by factors such as composition, size, loading, surface chemistry, and dispersion. Here, we designed a comprehensive investigation of heavy ion irradiation resistance in epoxy matrix composites loaded with surface-modified ceria nanofillers, utilizing tandem computational and experimental methods to elucidate radiolytic damage processes and relate them to chemical and structural changes observed through thermal analysis, vibrational spectroscopy, and electron microscopy. A detailed mechanistic examination supported by FTIR spectroscopy data identified the bisphenol A moiety as a primary target for degradation reactions. Results of computational modeling by the Stopping Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) Monte Carlo simulation were in good agreement with damage analysis from surface and cross-sectional SEM imaging. All metrics indicated that ceria nanofillers reduce the damage area in polymer nanocomposites, and that nanofiller loading and homogeneity of dispersion are key to effective damage prevention. The results of this study represent a significant pathway for engineered irradiation tolerance in a diverse array of polymer nanocomposite materials. Numerous areas of materials science can benefit from utilizing this facile and effective method to extend the reliability of polymer materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Oversizing and Part-Load Problems

Oversizing, the common engineering practice of specifying devices with capacity exceeding the actual load requirement, is a widespread practice across virtually all building technologies end-use categories, including HVAC, electrical systems, lighting, appliances, and plug loads. This practice, driven by factors like design uncertainty, institutional pressures, and risk aversion, results in wasted capital investment, control difficulties, and excessive energy consumption due to inefficient part-load operation. Part-load operation, where devices run below maximum capacity, is the dominant operating mode in most energy systems and presents a complex design challenge. Solutions to match output to load fall into three broad categories: constraining the output, adjusting the device’s internal behavior, and linking output to energy storage or other waste-heat reuse applications. The energy implications of part-load are critical, as efficiency often drops sharply as load decreases across a wide diversity of devices. To quantify the extent of this problem, we derive a dimensionless Part-Load Metric (PLM) based on device efficiency and its frequency distribution of operating hours at various output levels. The PLM quantifies the deviation of a device's actual efficiency from its maximum design efficiency. This metric also serves as a measure of "capital inefficiency," enabling engineers to compare the impact of different part-load solutions and providing a unified framework for evaluating performance across various devices and systems.

Meier, Alan↗

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Sustainable Li-ion anode material from Fe-catalyzed graphitization of paper waste

We report a novel method for the conversion of paper towel waste to biographite anode material is developed and optimized for use in Li-ion batteries. The surge in demand for Li-ion battery anode materials coupled with the unsustainable and inefficient methods of producing battery-grade graphite necessitate alternative carbon feedstocks and graphitization technologies. Paper waste (PW) is identified as a suitable carbon feedstock for iron-catalyzed graphitization due to its sustainability, low cost, low ash content, and ample supply for the intended end use. A Box Behnken experimental design for statistical optimization is pursued for untreated and pre-carbonized PW with factors of temperature (1100-1300 °C), hold time (1-5 h), and iron catalyst loading (0.5-1.5x fixed carbon content) with biographite crystal size as the primary response variable. Temperature and iron catalyst loading are found to be significant factors, whereas hold time is found to be insignificant. Reversible capacities of the biographite anodes are found to be 340-355 mAh g-1 with 99% capacity retention over 100 cycles, indicating good electrochemical performance relative to commercial graphite anodes. The initial Coulombic efficiency of untreated and pre-carbonized biographites, however, are 77% and 75%, respectively, suggesting parasitic reactions including electrolyte decomposition.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Considerations for Short-Term Load Forecasting of Morocco

There are many factors that determine how demand for electricity may change over time. The analysis described in this report is focused on using auto-regressive models and neural networks to examine load-forecasting techniques for the next 24 hours.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Meta-Study of Particulate Detection Losses on Radioactive Air Sample Filters

Several mathematical relationships between air sample filter mass loading and the correlated analytical self-absorption factor were developed using data from other published research in this meta-study. Gross-alpha and -beta applications are addressed for this research. As filter media becomes loaded with particulate matter, there is potential for measurement losses due to self-absorption by mass loading. Components contributing to absorption include particulate dust, radioactive particulates, and filter material. Standards indicate a correction factor should be used when the penetration of radioactive material into the collection media or self-absorption of radiation by the material collected would reduce the detection rate by more than 5%. Previously, losses due to self-absorption have been reported up to 100% over a range up to ~10 mg∙cm -2 mass loading. These absorption losses then can be used to determine a correction factor for sample results. For low mass loadings (e.g., ≤0.1 mg∙cm -2 ) corrections factors in the 0.85 - 1 range have been recommended and used, while at higher mass loadings nearer to 10 mg∙cm -2 correction factors closer to 0 (representing near 100% losses) are used. Based on data from published studies, the different methods for relating percent loss due to self-absorption to mass loading include linear, exponential, quadratic, and trinomial derived functions. Where applicable, both forced zero and non-forced zero results were evaluated. From the derived functions evaluated, the trinomial function provided the best fit. Once the sample filter mass loading is known, the trinomial function can be applied to estimate losses and the corresponding self-absorption factor. When applied to routine operating conditions for radiological facility stacks monitored at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for an average sample filter mass loading of 0.09 ± 0.12 (2σ) mg∙cm -2 (excluding negative values and outliers) and a range from 0 - 0.24 mg∙cm -2 , the estimated trinomial function nominal self-absorption losses are less than 5% at 0.09 mg∙cm -2 and less than 10% at 0.24 mg∙cm -2 . The trinomial function is one method that may be used to adjust the activity results of an air sample when the sample-specific mass loading is determined. The application of no correction factor when the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2021 guidance of a 5% threshold for loss is not reached with typical stack sample mass loadings may be reasonable in high-efficiency particulate air filtered systems. For simplicity, it would be conservative in assigning the self-absorption correction factor at the 5% threshold (i.e., 0.95) for general uses but in cases of heavy mass loading to calculate the factor.

air sampling↗

A stress-sensitive precipitate nucleation model beyond classical nucleation theory

The dynamic evolution of precipitates and second phases dictates the strength and stability of most engineering alloys. By design, or as a consequence of thermo-mechanical aging, engineering metals and alloys often form precipitates of second phases when subjecting to diverse thermal and mechanical loads. Precipitation is governed by several factors, including the alloy’s composition, processing/operating temperature, and stresses — either as a result of external loads or from residual stresses. However, state-of-the-art models for precipitate nucleation (i.e., classical nucleation theory) typically lacks consistent method to capture the effects of externally applied and/or internal stresses on nucleation; thereby severely limiting the applicability of these models to complex materials systems and to representative loading scenarios. Here, in this work, we extend upon classical nucleation theory to account for the effect of stresses on precipitation kinetics and thermodynamics. This is achieved via the use of an Eshelbian micromechanics framework keeping track of (i) the stress build up resulting from second phase formation as a function of mechanical load and, (ii) the effects of dislocations on precipitate formation. This new model is applied to σ precipitate in Fe–Cr binary alloys and M 23 C 6 precipitate in 316H stainless steel (SS). Simulations demonstrate the important role of both the remotely applied loads and dislocation pile ups on precipitate nucleation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Diesel Particulate Filter Durability Performance Comparison Using Metals Doped B20 vs. Conventional Diesel Part II: Chemical and Microscopic Characterization of Aged DPFs

This project's objective was to generate experimental data to evaluate the impact of metals doped B20 on diesel particle filter (DPF) ash loading and performance compared to that of conventional petrodiesel. The effect of metals doped B20 vs. conventional diesel on a DPF was quantified in a laboratory controlled accelerated ash loading study. The ash loading was conducted on two DPFs - one using ULSD fuel and the other on B20 containing metals dopants equivalent to 4 ppm B100 total metals. Engine oil consumption and B20 metals levels were accelerated by a factor of 5, with DPFs loaded to 30 g/L of ash. Details of the ash loading experiment and on-engine DPF performance evaluations are presented in the companion paper (Part I). The DPFs were cleaned, and ash samples were taken from the cleaned material. X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) were conducted on the ash samples. Core samples were taken from the cleaned DPF and were subjected to scanning electron microscope energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) and XRF analysis. A comparison of the data from the two DPFs is presented. The XRD and XPS analysis showed that the compounds present in the ash from the two DPFs were nearly identical, though differing in concentrations. CaSO4 was the biggest component of the ash from both DPFs. The metals doped B20 fuel resulted in ash with similar characteristics to that deposited by the lube oil and did not appear to have any deleterious physical effects on the DPF substrate (did not penetrate the substrate).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS↗

Considerations for Long-Term Load Forecasting in Morocco

There are many factors that determine how demand for electricity may change over time. These factors include GDP, population size, and technology diffusion and adoption. We employ a simple extrapolation of current trends in Morocco GDP to estimate how the peak demand and annual consumption may change through the year 2030. We discuss the many factors that this approach does not take into account (such as adoption of air conditioning, electric vehicles, and distributed generation).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Performance Computing Peak Shaving for Microreactor Operation

There are multiple nuclear microreactors currently under development that are designed to provide autonomous power for as many as ten or more years without refueling and are designed to power high performance computing (HPC) datacenters. But the load-follow speeds for a nuclear microreactor will be much slower than grid power and slower than the power variance typical of a HPC system. HPC datacenters experience peak power load variance driven by several factors ranging from the operation of cooling systems to remove heat from the servers to supporting a wide range of user application workflows and architectures each with different power signatures. One mechanism to support the limited load-follow of a microreactor is peak shaving where an energy storage mechanism is used to shed peak load and reduce significant power variance. This work explores peak electrical load shaving using uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems designed for HPC support in the context of peak shaving when operating using a nuclear microreactor with a load-follow limited to 10% of load per minute. Using a self contained HPC datacenter complete with stand-alone cooling system and provisioned with an x86 cluster, an ARM cluster, and a graphics processing unit (GPU) cluster, peak shaving for microreactor operation using the UPS battery backup is explored while running two classes of typical HPC user applications. HPC architecture suitability for microreactor operation under this type of peak shaving is examined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time-temperature-stress superposition of PBX 9502 compressive creep data for lifetime predictions

The plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 is a viscoelastic, high-solids loaded polymer bound composite comprised of 95 weight% (wt%) TATB explosive crystals and 5 wt% FK-800 polymer binder. The uniaxial quasi-static mechanical properties have been studied and characterized extensively over 25+ years, including creep. Creep is the strain evolution over time as a result of an asymmetric load typically at temperatures above ambient. Creep measurements to failure can take excessively long periods of time depending on various factors including applied stress, temperature, and loading rate that render a single test to failure impossible. Using the principles of time-temperature-stress superposition (TTSSP), short-term creep tests at various applied stresses and temperatures can be used for long-term creep predictions. The TTSSP model shifts short-term test data using two factors, one for temperature and stress, creating a master curve at a reference test condition. The master curve can be shifted to predict the creep response at any desired test condition. PBX 9502 compression specimens were tested at three temperatures and various applied stresses. This work discusses the TTSSP analysis of PBX 9502 compressive creep data to create a single comprehensive master curve.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time-Temperature-Stress Superposition of PBX 9502 Compressive Creep Data for Lifetime Predictions

The plastic-bonded explosive (PBX) 9502 is a viscoelastic, high-solids loaded polymer bound composite comprised of 95 weight% (wt%) TATB explosive crystals and 5 wt% FK-800 polymer binder. The uniaxial quasi-static mechanical properties have been studied and characterized extensively over 25+ years, including creep. Creep is the strain evolution over time as a result of an asymmetric load typically at temperatures above ambient. Creep measurements to failure can take excessively long periods of time depending on various factors including applied stress, temperature, and loading rate that render a single test to failure impossible. Using the principles of time-temperature-stress superposition (TTSSP), short-term creep tests at various applied stresses and temperatures can be used for long-term creep predictions. The TTSSP model shifts short-term test data using two factors, one for temperature and stress, creating a master curve at a reference test condition. The master curve can be shifted to predict the creep response at any desired test condition. PBX 9502 compression specimens were tested at three temperatures and various applied stresses. This work discusses the TTSSP analysis of PBX 9502 compressive creep data to create a single comprehensive master curve.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of workpiece curvature on the tool influence function during hemispherical sub-aperture tool glass polishing

The influence of workpiece curvature on the tool influence function spot during polishing of fused silica glass with cerium oxide slurry, while using a rotating hemispherical pad-foam tool for a wide variety of process conditions (tool displacement, inclination angle, and rotation rate), has been investigated. (Workpiece curvature ranged from 500 mm radius concave to 43 mm radius convex.) The TIF spot decreases in diameter and increases in the peak removal rate on more convex workpieces. In contrast, the TIF spot increases both in diameter and peak removal rate on more concave workpieces. For the range of workpiece curvatures investigated, both the spot size and the peak removal rate changed significantly, as much as 2 times. An elastic sphere–sphere contact mechanics model, which utilizes both a modified displacement (that leads to a change in the applied load) as well as a mismatch factor (that influences the pressure distribution shape), has been developed. Furthermore, the model was validated using both offline load-displacement measurements and finite-element analysis simulations. The model quantitatively describes the measured change in the relative contact diameter and relative pressure distribution, as well as semiquantitively describes the change in the relative volumetric removal rate on a large variety of TIF spots. The change in the volumetric removal rate for convex workpieces is a result of the balance between a decreasing spot size (reducing removal) and an increasing peak pressure (increasing removal), which usually results in relatively small changes in volumetric removal. In the case of concave workpieces, the volumetric removal rate change is also governed by a similar balance, but the spot size increase contribution dominates, resulting in a significant increase in volumetric removal rate. Understanding these trends can enable methods to add greater determinism during the fabrication of freeform optics by adjusting polishing parameters (such as dwell time) while the tool translates along a workpiece surface with different local curvatures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dynamic pulse-to-pulse thermal load effects in pulse-train-mode self-seeded X-ray free-electron laser

Thermal load has been a haunting factor that undermines the brightness and coherence of the self-seeded X-ray free-electron laser. Additionally, different from uniformly pulsed mode, in pulse train mode a thermal quasi-steady state of the crystal monochromator may not be reached. This leads to a dynamic thermal distortion of the spectral transmission curves and seed quality degradation. In this paper, the pulse-to-pulse thermal load effects on the spectral transmission curves and seed quality are shown, and some instructive information for the tuning process is provided.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decom- pose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high- level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗