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At least 109 records · Page 6

Determination of nuclear PDFs using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Global QCD analyses of nuclear parton distribution functions (nPDFs) have traditionally relied on the Hessian method for uncertainty estimation. However, the inherent Gaussian approximation and reliance on local curvature often prove insufficient for nPDF fits, which are frequently characterized by limited data constraints and non-Gaussian likelihoods. In this paper, we present the first nPDF determination based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques, implemented within the nCTEQ framework using an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The MCMC approach enables a direct mapping of the posterior distribution and reveals a highly nontrivial parameter-space structure, including multiple modes and pronounced non-Gaussian behavior, particularly for the valence PDFs. We perform the first single-nucleus global analysis of lead PDFs using exclusively lead data and compare it to a multi-nuclei fit employing a standard analytic A dependence. The inclusion of lighter nuclei reduces quark uncertainties and modifies the shape of the lead PDFs, while leaving the gluon distribution largely unaffected. A complementary Hessian analysis exposes systematic limitations of the Gaussian approximation. Our results demonstrate that MCMC methods provide a more reliable framework for uncertainty quantification in nPDF determinations.

Derakhshanian, N. [Institute of Nuclear Physics Po↗

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗

A quality-agnostic combinatoric cost estimation model for large-format directed energy deposition metal additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) processes are amenable to synergistic combination into multi-process AM systems due to similar requirements for automation and energy sources. This work analyzes the economic performance of such DED AM systems from a quality-agnostic combinatoric standpoint with a model that calculates lowest-cost system combinations based on part geometry and process performance metrics. Common DED AM systems research focuses on a single process and does not consider the process, system, and application in the context of all possible system combinations (e.g., the combined set of process selection(s), motion system(s), and process hardware), leading to limited applicability of the resulting DED AM systems to cost-sensitive components such as those found in energy generation applications. The model developed herein incorporates the capital, material, and energy costs associated with DED AM system combinations into a predictive tool for estimating part and system cost, the output of which is intended to guide deployment of finite research and development resources towards DED AM system combinations with the lowest costs and greatest likelihood of economic impact. The DED AM systems identified by this framework may enable domestic production of the large conventionally cast and forged components necessary for energy generation.

Shanafield, Alexandra [ORNL]↗

Simulation-Based Inference for Neutrino Interaction Model Tuning

This project demonstrates, for the first time, the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques to tune neutrino–nucleus interaction models. Using a mock dataset based on the MicroBooNE tuning of the GENIE event generator, our approach employs a Neural Posterior Estimator (NPE) with Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF) to infer the posterior distributions of key GENIE parameters directly from simulated histograms. The workflow provides a scalable and amortized framework for performing likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional parameter spaces, offering a pathway to more efficient and uncertainty-aware model tuning for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE and SBND.

Tame-Narvaez, KarlaMaria [Fermi National Accelerat↗

A Measurement of the Largest-scale CMB E -mode Polarization with CLASS

We present measurements of large-scale cosmic microwave background E-mode polarization from the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor 90 GHz data. Using 115 det-yr of observations collected through 2024 with a variable-delay polarization modulator, we achieved a polarization sensitivity of 82 μK arcimin, comparable to Planck at similar frequencies (100 and 143 GHz ). The analysis demonstrates effective mitigation of systematic errors and addresses challenges to large-angular-scale power recovery posed by time-domain filtering in maximum-likelihood map-making. A novel implementation of the pixel-space transfer matrix is introduced, which enables efficient filtering simulations and bias correction in the power spectrum using the quadratic cross-spectrum estimator. Overall, we achieved an unbiased time-domain filtering correction to recover the largest angular scale polarization, with the only power deficit, arising from map-making nonlinearity, being characterized as <3%. Through cross-correlation with Planck, we detected the cosmic reionization at 99.4% significance and measured the reionization optical depth τ = $0.053^{+0.018}_{-0.019}$, marking the first ground-based attempt at such a measurement. At intermediate angular scales (ℓ > 30), our results, both independently and in cross-correlation with Planck, remain fully consistent with Planck’s measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Early-time γ -ray constraints on cosmic-ray acceleration in the core-collapse SN 2023ixf with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

Context. While supernova remnants (SNRs) have been considered the most relevant Galactic cosmic ray (CR) accelerators for decades, core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) could accelerate particles during the earliest stages of their evolution and hence contribute to the CR energy budget in the Galaxy. Some SNRs have indeed been associated with TeV γ -rays, yet proton acceleration efficiency during the early stages of an SN expansion remains mostly unconstrained. Aims. The multi-wavelength observation of SN 2023ixf, a Type II supernova (SN) in the nearby galaxy M 101 (at a distance of 6.85 Mpc), opens the possibility to constrain CR acceleration within a few days after the collapse of the red super-giant stellar progenitor. With this work, we intend to provide a phenomenological, quasi-model-independent constraint on the CR acceleration efficiency during this event at photon energies above 100 MeV. Methods. We performed a maximum-likelihood analysis of γ -ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope up to one month after the SN explosion. We searched for high-energy, non-thermal emission from its expanding shock, and estimated the underlying hadronic CR energy reservoir assuming a power-law proton distribution consistent with standard diffusive shock acceleration. Results. We do not find significant γ -ray emission from SN 2023ixf. Nonetheless, our non-detection provides the first limit on the energy transferred to the population of hadronic CRs during the very early expansion of a CCSN. Conclusions. Under reasonable assumptions, our limits would imply a maximum efficiency on the CR acceleration of as low as 1%, which is inconsistent with the common estimate of 10% in generic SNe. However, this result is highly dependent on the assumed geometry of the circumstellar medium, and could be relaxed back to 10% by challenging spherical symmetry. Consequently, a more sophisticated, inhomogeneous characterisation of the shock and the progenitor’s environment is required before establishing whether or not Type II SNe are indeed efficient CR accelerators at early times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurements of W + W − production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of W + W − → e ± νμ ∓ ν production cross-sections are presented, providing a test of the predictions of perturbative quantum chromodynamics and the electroweak theory. The measurements are based on data from pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The number of events due to top-quark pair production, the largest background, is reduced by rejecting events containing jets with b-hadron decays. An improved methodology for estimating the remaining top-quark background enables a precise measurement of W + W − cross-sections with no additional requirements on jets. The fiducial W + W − cross-section is determined in a maximum-likelihood fit with an uncertainty of 3.1%. The measurement is extrapolated to the full phase space, resulting in a total W + W − cross-section of 127 ± 4 pb. Differential cross-sections are measured as a function of twelve observables that comprehensively describe the kinematics of W + W − events. The measurements are compared with state-of-the-art theory calculations and excellent agreement with predictions is observed. A charge asymmetry in the lepton rapidity is observed as a function of the dilepton invariant mass, in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. A CP-odd observable is measured to be consistent with no CP violation. Limits on Standard Model effective field theory Wilson coefficients in the Warsaw basis are obtained from the differential cross-sections.

Accelerator Physics↗

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 power spectra, likelihoods and ΛCDM parameters

We present power spectra of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy in temperature and polarization, measured from the Data Release 6 maps made from Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) data. These cover 19,000 deg 2 of sky in bands centered at 98, 150 and 220 GHz, with white noise levels three times lower than Planck in polarization. We find that the ACT angular power spectra estimated over 10,000 deg 2 , and measured to arcminute scales in TT, TE and EE, are well fit by the sum of CMB and foregrounds, where the CMB spectra are described by the ΛCDM model. Combining ACT with larger-scale Planck data, the joint P-ACT dataset provides tight limits on the ingredients, expansion rate, and initial conditions of the universe. We find similar constraining power, and consistent results, from either the Planck power spectra or from ACT combined with WMAP data, as well as from either temperature or polarization in the joint P-ACT dataset. When combined with CMB lensing from ACT and Planck, and baryon acoustic oscillation data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI DR1), we measure a baryon density of Ω b h 2 = 0.0226 ± 0.0001, a cold dark matter density of Ω c h 2 = 0.118 ± 0.001, a Hubble constant of H 0 = 68.22 ± 0.36 km/s/Mpc, a spectral index of n s = 0.974 ± 0.003, and an amplitude of density fluctuations of σ 8 = 0.813 ± 0.005. Including the DESI DR2 data tightens the Hubble constant to H 0 = 68.43 ± 0.27 km/s/Mpc; ΛCDM parameters agree between the P-ACT and DESI DR2 data at the 1.6σ level. We find no evidence for excess lensing in the power spectrum, and no departure from spatial flatness. The contribution from Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) anisotropy is detected at high significance; we find evidence for a tilt with suppressed small-scale power compared to our baseline SZ template spectrum, consistent with hydrodynamical simulations with feedback.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗

MTRE

Multi-Token Reliability Estimation (MTRE) is a lightweight, white-box hallucination detector for vision-language models. Instead of using only the first output token, MTRE aggregates logits from the first ~10 tokens and feeds them to a small attention-based reliability head; per-token scores are combined via a sequential log-likelihood-ratio test with early-stopping, and an MTRE-t variant calibrates thresholds via cross-fitting. MTRE reports average gains of +9.4% Accuracy and +14.8% AUROC over common baselines across MAD-Bench, MM-SafetyBench, MathVista, and arithmetic/counting tasks, while adding ~4.3M params and ~1% inference overhead (~26 MB VRAM, ~0.94 ms per detection). Key limitation: requires access to early token logits and is evaluated on a handful of open-source 7B VLMs.

Bhattarai, Manish [Los Alamos National Labs]↗

Neural simulation-based inference of the Higgs trilinear self-coupling via off-shell Higgs production

One of the forthcoming major challenges in particle physics is the experimental determination of the Higgs trilinear self-coupling. While efforts have largely focused on on-shell double- and single-Higgs production in proton-proton collisions, off-shell Higgs production has also been proposed as a valuable complementary probe. In this article, we design a hybrid neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) approach to construct a likelihood of the Higgs signal incorporating modifications from the Standard Model effective field theory (SMEFT), relevant background processes, and quantum interference effects. It leverages the training efficiency of matrix-element-enhanced techniques, which are vital for robust SMEFT applications, while also incorporating the practical advantages of classification-based methods for effective background estimates. We demonstrate that our NSBI approach achieves sensitivity close to the theoretical optimum and provide expected constraints for the high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider. While we primarily concentrate on the Higgs trilinear self-coupling, we also consider constraints on other SMEFT operators that affect off-shell Higgs production.

Ghosh, Aishik [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (Un↗

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗

CMB-S4: Foreground-cleaning Pipeline Comparison for Measuring Primordial Gravitational Waves

We compare multiple foreground-cleaning pipelines for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, using simulated maps of the planned CMB-S4 experiment within the context of the South Pole Deep Patch. To evaluate robustness, we analyze bias and uncertainty on r across various foreground suites using map-based simulations. The foreground-cleaning methods include: a parametric maximum likelihood approach applied to auto- and cross-power spectra between frequency maps; a map-based parametric maximum-likelihood method; and a harmonic-space internal linear combination using frequency maps. We summarize the conceptual basis of each method to highlight their similarities and differences. To better probe the impact of foreground residuals, we implement an iterative internal delensing step, leveraging a map-based pipeline to generate a lensing B-mode template from the large aperture telescope frequency maps. Our results show that the performance of the three approaches is comparable for simple and intermediate-complexity foregrounds, with σ(r) ranging from 3–5 ×10 −4 . However, biases at the 1σ–2σ level appear when analyzing more complex forms of foreground emission. By extending the baseline pipelines to marginalize over foreground residuals, we demonstrate that contamination can be reduced to within statistical uncertainties, albeit with a pipeline-dependent impact on σ(r), which translates to a detection significance between 2σ and 4σ for an input value of r = 0.003. These findings suggest varying levels of maturity among the tested pipelines, with the auto- and cross-spectra-based approach demonstrating the best stability and overall performance. Moreover, given the extremely low noise levels, mutual validation of independent foreground-cleaning pipelines is essential to ensure the robustness of any potential detection.

astronomy data analysis↗

MTUQ: a framework for estimating moment tensors, point forces, and their uncertainties

SUMMARY We introduce MTUQ, an open-source Python package for seismic source estimation and uncertainty quantification, emphasizing flexibility and operational scalability. MTUQ provides MPI-parallelized grid search and global optimization capabilities, compatibility with 1-D and 3-D Green’s function database formats, customizable data processing, C-accelerated waveform and first-motion polarity misfit functions, and utilities for plotting seismic waveforms and visualizing misfit and likelihood surfaces. Applicability to a range of full- and constrained-moment tensor, point force, and centroid inversion problems is possible via a documented application programming interface, accompanied by example scripts and integration tests. We demonstrate the software using three different types of seismic events: (1) a 2009 intraslab earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska; (2) an episode of the 2021 Barry Arm landslide in Alaska; and (3) the 2017 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea underground nuclear test. With these events, we illustrate the well-known complementary character of body waves, surface waves, and polarities for constraining source parameters. We also convey the distinct misfit patterns that arise from each individual data type, the importance of uncertainty quantification for detecting multimodal or otherwise poorly constrained solutions, and the software’s flexible, modular design.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Nonparametric Method for the Inference of Halo Occupation Distributions

The galaxy–halo connection traces processes by which galaxies form and evolve. The halo occupation distribution (HOD) describes the relationship between galaxies and their host dark matter haloes. Measurements of the galaxy two-point correlation function (2PCF) allow us to extract information about the HODs of observed galaxy samples. Several parametric HOD models have been proposed in the literature, but the choice of parameterization restricts the space of possible HODs. To resolve this issue, we introduce a nonparametric HOD fitting method in which we train an emulator to learn the mappings among the galaxy 2PCF, physical properties used to select galaxy samples, and the HOD, all obtained from simulated past light cones constructed with the Santa Cruz semianalytic model. Implementing this emulator within a likelihood analysis framework, we derive constraints on the HOD of a galaxy sample when provided with a measurement of its 2PCF. Using the emulator to accelerate likelihood evaluations, we test the nonparametric HOD approach on a set of 2PCFs for mock galaxy samples drawn from the TNG100-1 simulation and selected above threshold values of stellar mass and star formation rate. Our framework is able to recover TNG100-1 HODs within 0.2 dex. We use the TNG100-1 mocks to tune the reported uncertainties to estimate those expected in the analysis of observations. Comparing to parametric HOD modelling routines applied to the same mock galaxy samples, our approach consistently infers the HOD with comparable or greater precision and accuracy.

Kennedy, Jacob [Rutgers Univ., Piscataway, NJ (Uni↗