Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “lifetime prediction models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

Performance predictions for spaceborne, long-lifetime helium dewars containing large-aperture telescopes

The evolution of design approaches for high-performance superfluid helium dewars containing large-aperture telescopes are discussed. Particular attention is given to thermal-math modeling for the IRAS and the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) dewars. Correlation of the recent COBE flight data with the dewar thermal-math model is presented, and apparent predictive deficiencies of the model are discussed.

Hopkins, Richard A.↗

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Whitlock, David↗

Potassium-Rankine Power Conversion Subsystem Modeling for Nuclear Electric Propulsion

A potassium-Rankine power conversion system model was developed under Contract No. NAS3-25808 for the NASA-LeRC. This model predicts potassium-Rankine performance for turbine inlet temperatures (TIT) from 1200 - 1600 K, TIT to condenser temperature ratios from 1.25-1.6, power levels from 100 to 10,000 kWe, and lifetimes from 2-10 years. The model is for a Rankine cycle with reheat for turbine stage moisture control. The model assumes heat is supplied from a lithium heat transport loop. The model does not include a heat source or a condenser/heat rejection system model. These must be supplied by the user.

Johnson, Gregory A.↗

Aircraft Engine Run-to-Failure Dataset Under Real Flight Conditions for Prognostics and Diagnostics

A key enabler of intelligent maintenance systems is the ability to predict the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of its components, i.e., prognostics. The development of data-driven prognostics models requires datasets with run-to-failure trajectories. However, large representative run-to-failure datasets are often unavailable in real applications because failures are rare in many safety-critical systems. To foster the development of prognostics methods, we develop a new realistic dataset of run-to-failure trajectories for a fleet of aircraft engines under real flight conditions. The dataset was generated with the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (CMAPSS) model developed at NASA. The damage propagation modelling used in this dataset builds on the modelling strategy from previous work and incorporates two new levels of fidelity. First, it considers real flight conditions as recorded on board of a commercial jet. Second, it extends the degradation modelling by relating the degradation process to its operation history. This dataset also provides the health respectively fault class. Therefore, besides its applicability to prognostics problems, the dataset can be used for fault diagnostics.

CMAPPS↗

A Deep Search for Five Molecules in the 49 Ceti Debris Disk

Surprisingly strong CO emission has been observed from more than a dozen debris disks around nearby main-sequence stars. The origin of this CO is unclear, in particular whether it is left over from the protoplanetary disk phase or is second-generation material released from collisions between icy bodies like debris dust. The primary unexplored avenue for distinguishing the origin of the material is understanding its molecular composition. Here we present a deep search for five molecules (CN, HCN, HCO+, SiO, and CH3OH) in the debris disk around 49 Ceti. We take advantage of the high sensitivity of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array at Band 7 to integrate for 3.2 hr at modest spatial (1′′) and spectral (0.8 km s−1) resolution. Our search yields stringent upper limits on the flux of all surveyed molecular lines, which imply abundances relative to CO that are orders of magnitude lower than those observed in protoplanetary disks and solar system comets, and also those predicted in outgassing models of second-generation material. However, if CI shielding is responsible for extending the lifetime of any CO produced in second-generation collisions as proposed by Kral et al., then the line ratios do not reflect true ice phase chemical abundances but rather imply that CO is shielded by its own photodissociation product, CI, and other molecules are rapidly photodissociated by the stellar and interstellar radiation field.

Debris disks↗

Assessments of Hollow Cathode Wear in the Xenon Ion Propulsion System (XIPs(c)) by Numerical Analyses and Wear Tests

The standard approach presently followed by NASA to qualify electric propulsion for the required mission throughput has been based largely on life tests, which can be costly and time consuming. Revised electric propulsion lifequalification approaches are being formulated that combine analytical and/or computational methods with (shorter-duration) wear tests. As a model case, a wear test is being performed at JPL to assess the lifetime of the discharge hollow cathode in the Xenon Ion Propulsion System (XIPS(c)), a 25-cm ion engine developed by L-3 Communications Electron Technologies, Inc. for commercial applications. Wear and plasma data accumulated throughout this life-assessment program are being used to validate the existing 2-D hollow cathode code OrCa2D. We find that the OrCa2D steady-state solution predicts very well the time-averaged plasma data and the keeper voltage after 5500 hrs of operation in high-power mode. When the wave motion that occurs naturally in these devices is accounted for, based on an estimate of the maximum wave amplitude, the molybdenum-keeper erosion profile observed in the XIPS(c) discharge cathode is also reproduced within a factor of two of the observation. When the same model is applied to predict the erosion of a tantalum keeper we find that erosion is reduced by more than two orders of magnitude compared to the molybdenum keeper due the significantly lower sputtering yield of tantalum. A tantalum keeper would therefore allow keeper lifetimes that greatly exceed the present requirements for deep-space robotic missions considered by NASA. Moreover, such large reduction of the erosion renders the largest uncertainties in the models, which are associated with the wave amplitude estimates and the electron transport model, negligible.

plasma simulations↗

Predicted trapped particle radiation levels for Tiros-N

Vehicle encountered electron and proton fluxes were calculated for a set of nominal TIROS-N trajectories with new computational methods and new electron environment models. Temporal variations in the electron data were considered and partially accounted for. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for the lifetime of the satellite at selected integral energies from 10 to 100 MeV. Field strength calculations were performed with an extrapolated model on the basis of linear secular variation predictions. Orbital flux integration results are presented in graphical and tabular form.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

Modeling Near-Surface Temperatures at Martian Landing Sites

We have developed a process for deriving near-surface (approx. 1m) temperatures for potential landing sites, based on observational parameters from MGS TES, Odyssey THEMIS, and a boundary layer model developed by Murphy for fitting Pathfinder meteorological measurements. Minimum nighttime temperatures at the MER landing sites can limit power available, and thus mission lifetime. Temperatures are derived based on thermal inertia, albedo, and opacity estimated for the Hematite site in Sinus Meridiani, using predictions of 1-m air temperatures from a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The Hematite site shows 9 % probability of landing at a location with nighttime temperatures below the 97 C value considered to be a practical limit for operations.

T Z Martin↗

HOx Observation and Model Comparison During INTEX-A 2004

OH and HO2 were measured with the Airborne Tropospheric Hydrogen Oxides Sensor (ATHOS) as part of a large measurement suite from the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment - A (INTEX-A). This mission, which was conducted mainly over North America and the western Atlantic Ocean in summer 2004, was an excellent test of atmospheric oxidation chemistry. Throughout the troposphere, observed OH was generally 0.60 of the modeled OH; below 8 km, observed HO2 was generally 0.78 of modeled HO2. If the over-prediction of tropospheric OH is not due to an instrument calibration error, then it implied less global tropospheric oxidation capacity and longer lifetimes for gases like methane and methyl chloroform than currently thought. This discrepancy falls well outside uncertainties in both the OH measurement and rate coefficients for known reactions and points to a large unknown OH loss. If the modeled OH is forced to agree with observed values by introducing of an undefined OH loss that removed HOx (HOx=OH+HO2), the observed and modeled HO2 and HO2/OH ratios are largely reconciled within the measurement uncertainty. HO2 behavior above 8 km was markedly different. The observed-to-modeled ratio correlating with NO. The observed-to-modeled HO2 ratio increased from approximately 1 at 8 km to more than approximately 2.5 at 11 km with the observed-to-modeled ratio correlating with NO. The observed-to-modeled HO2 and NO were both considerably greater than observations from previous campaigns. In addition, the observed-to-modeled HO2/OH, which is sensitive to cycling reactions between OH and HO2, increased from approximately 1.2 at 8 km to almost 4 above 11 km. In contrast to the lower atmosphere, these discrepancies above 8 km suggest a large unknown HOx source and additional reactants that cycle HOx from OH to HO2. In the continental planetary boundary layer, the OH observed-to-modeled ratio increased from 0.6 when isoprene was less than 0.1 ppbv to over 3 when isoprene was greater than 2 ppbv, suggesting that forests throughout the United States are emitting unknown HOx sources. Progress in resolving these discrepancies requires further examinations of possible unknown OH sinks and HOx sources and a focused research activity devoted to ascertaining the accuracy of the OH and HO2 measurements.

Ren, Xinrong↗

Estimates of Power Plant NOx Emissions and Lifetimes from OMI NO2 Satellite Retrievals

Isolated power plants with well characterized emissions serve as an ideal test case of methods to estimate emissions using satellite data. In this study we evaluate the Exponentially-Modified Gaussian (EMG) method and the box model method based on mass balance for estimating known NOx emissions from satellite retrievals made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We consider 29 power plants in the USA which have large NOx plumes that do not overlap with other sources and which have emissions data from the Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS). This enables us to identify constraints required by the methods, such as which wind data to use and how to calculate background values. We found that the lifetimes estimated by the methods are too short to be representative of the chemical lifetime. Instead, we introduce a separate lifetime parameter to account for the discrepancy between estimates using real data and those that theory would predict. In terms of emissions, the EMG method required averages from multiple years to give accurate results, whereas the box model method gave accurate results for individual ozone seasons.

Emissions inventory↗

Power spectra of quasi-periodic oscillations in luminous X-ray stars

A variety of partial random processes are considered in order to study the effects on the power-density spectrum of several physical phenomena that may occur in the beat-frequency modulated accretion (BFMA) model of QPOs. The relevant physical properties of BFMA model are summarized, and the class of random processes used to represent the X-ray intensity time series predicted by the model are introduced. The dependence of the power-density spectrum on pulse shape is discussed. Pulse-lifetime and orbital-frequency distributions are introduced, illustrating how these affect the power-density spectrum. The effect of nonuniform initial-pulse phase distributions and of nonuniform pulse-time distributions are considered. The effects of a particular type of pulse-to-pulse correlation that may be natural in the context of the BFMA model and that greatly increases the power of the oscillations relative to that in the red noise is analyzed.

Shibazaki, N.↗

Target fragmentation in radiobiology

Nuclear reactions in biological systems produce low-energy fragments of the target nuclei seen as local high events of linear energy transfer (LET). A nuclear-reaction formalism is used to evaluate the nuclear-induced fields within biosystems and their effects within several biological models. On the basis of direct ionization interaction, one anticipates high-energy protons to have a quality factor and relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of unity. Target fragmentation contributions raise the effective quality factor of 10 GeV protons to 3.3 in reasonable agreement with RBE values for induced micronuclei in bean sprouts. Application of the Katz model indicates that the relative increase in RBE with decreasing exposure observed in cell survival experiments with 160 MeV protons is related solely to target fragmentation events. Target fragment contributions to lens opacity given an RBE of 1.4 for 2 GeV protons in agreement with the work of Lett and Cox. Predictions are made for the effective RBE for Harderian gland tumors induced by high-energy protons. An exposure model for lifetime cancer risk is derived from NCRP 98 risk tables, and protraction effects are examined for proton and helium ion exposures. The implications of dose rate enhancement effects on space radiation protection are considered.

Wilson, John W.↗

Beryllium-10 and Aluminum-26 in Individual Cosmic Spherules from Antarctica

We present data for the cosmogenic nuclides Be-10 and A-26 in a suite of 24 extraterrestrial spherules, collected from Antarctic moraines and deep sea sediments. All of the 10 large spherules collected in glacial till at Lewis Cliff are extraterrestrial. As in earlier work, the great majority of particles show prominent solar cosmic-ray (SCR) production of Al-26, indicating bombardment ages on the order of 106 years or even longer. These long ages are in direct contradiction to model ages for small particles in the inner Solar System and may require reconsideration of models of small particle lifetimes. A small fraction of the particles so far measured (6/42) possess cosmogenic radionuclide patterns consistent with predictions for meteoroid spall droplets. We believe that most of the spherules were bombarded in space primarily as bodies not much larger than their present size. The content of in situ produced Be-10 and Al-26 in quartz pebbles in the same moraine suggests that these spherules may have on average a significant terrestrial age.

Nishiizumi, K.↗

Spatially-Resolved Beam Current and Charge-State Distributions for the NEXT Ion Engine

Plume characterization tests with the 36-cm NEXT ion engine are being performed at The Aerospace Corporation using engineering-model and prototype-model thrusters. We have examined the beam current density and xenon charge-state distribution as functions of position on the accel grid. To measure the current density ratio j++/j+, a collimated Eprobe was rotated through the plume with the probe oriented normal to the accel electrode surface at a distance of 82 cm. The beam current density jb versus radial position was measured with a miniature planar probe at 3 cm from the accel. Combining the j++/j+ and jb data yielded the ratio of total Xe+2 current to total Xe+1 current (J++/J+) at forty operating points in the standard throttle table. The production of Xe+2 and Xe+3 was measured as a function of propellant utilization to support performance and lifetime predictions for an extended throttle table. The angular dependence of jb was measured at intermediate and far-field distances to assist with plume modeling and to evaluate the thrust loss due to beam divergence. Thrust correction factors were derived from the total doubles-to-singles current ratio and from the far-field divergence data

Pollard, James E.↗

Primary Electric Propulsion Technology Study

An investigation of the 30-cm engineering-model-thruster technology with emphasis placed on the development of models for understanding and predicting the operational characteristics and wear-out mechanisms of the thruster as a function of operating or design parameters is presented. The task studies include: (1) the wear mechanisms and wear rates that determine the useful lifetime of the thruster discharge chamber; (2) cathode lifetime as determined by the depletion of barium from the barium-aluminate-impregnated-porous-tungsten insert that serves as a barium reservoir; (3) accelerator-grid-system technology; (4) a verification of the high-voltage propellant-flow-electrical-isolator design developed under NASA contract NAS3-20395 for operation at 10-kV applied voltage and 10-A equivalent propellant flow with mercury and argon propellants. A model was formulated for predicting performance.

Poeschel, R. L.↗

Satellite lifetime prediction

Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.

Wittenstein, Gerald↗

Solar granulation and statistical crystallography: A modeling approach using size-shape relations

The irregular polygonal pattern of solar granulation is analyzed for size-shape relations using statistical crystallography. In contrast to previous work which has assumed perfectly hexagonal patterns for granulation, more realistic accounting of cell (granule) shapes reveals a broader basis for quantitative analysis. Several features emerge as noteworthy: (1) a linear correlation between number of cell-sides and neighboring shapes (called Aboav-Weaire's law); (2) a linear correlation between both average cell area and perimeter and the number of cell-sides (called Lewis's law and a perimeter law, respectively) and (3) a linear correlation between cell area and squared perimeter (called convolution index). This statistical picture of granulation is consistent with a finding of no correlation in cell shapes beyond nearest neighbors. A comparative calculation between existing model predictions taken from luminosity data and the present analysis shows substantial agreements for cell-size distributions. A model for understanding grain lifetimes is proposed which links convective times to cell shape using crystallographic results.

Noever, D. A.↗

Increase in atmospheric CHF2Cl (HCFC-22) over southern California from 1985 to 1990

Column densities of CHF2Cl (HCFC-22) have been measured over Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California (34.4 deg N) using the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer. Between October 1985 and July 1990, the exponential column increase rate was (6.7 +/- 0.5)%/yr. Additionally, column measurements of CHF2Cl over McMurdo Sound, Antarctica (78 deg S) in September and October 1986 by the MarkIV FTIR spectrometer were used to derive a south-north interhemispheric ratio of (0.86 +/- 0.08). Model calculations investigated the feasibility of using CHF2Cl column measurements with a predicted global OH field to determine a globally averaged chemical lifetime for CHF2Cl, or equivalently, an estimate of the OH field using a predicted lifetime. The current uncertainty in historical CHF2Cl emissions is too large for CHF2Cl to be used to infer adequately either the lifetime or the OH field.

Irion, Fredrick W.↗