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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (V.5.6)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ( $Re$ < 1 ) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton's method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic $h$-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria's more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.6)

Aria is a Galerkin nite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Mountaintop View Requires Minimal Sorting: A Faster Contour Tree Algorithm

Consider a scalar field f : M → R, where M is a triangulated simplicial mesh in R d . A level set, or contour, at value v is a connected component of f –1 (v). As v is changed, these contours change topology, merge into each other, or split. Contour trees are concise representations of f that track this contour behavior. The vertices of these trees are the critical points of f, where the gradient is zero. The edges represent changes in the topology of contours. It is a fundamental data structure in data analysis and visualization, and there is significant previous work (both theoretical and practical) on algorithms for constructing contour trees. Suppose M has n vertices, N facets, and t critical points. A classic result of Carr, Snoeyink, and Axen (2000) gives an algorithm that takes O(n log n+Nα(N)) time (where α(·) is the inverse Ackermann function). A further improvement to O(t log t + N) time was given by Chiang et al. All these algorithms involve a global sort of the critical points, a significant computational bottleneck. Unfortunately, lower bounds of Ω(t log t) also exist. We present the first algorithm that can avoid the global sort and has a refined time complexity that depends on the contour tree structure. Intuitively, if the tree is short and fat, we get significant improvements in running time. For a partition of the contour tree into a set of descending paths, P, our algorithm runs in O($\Sigma$ pϵP |p| log |p| + tα(t) + N). This is at most O(t log D + N), where D is the diameter of the contour tree. Moreover, it is O(tα(t) + N) for balanced trees, a significant improvement over the previous complexity. Our algorithm requires numerous ideas: partitioning the contour tree into join and split trees, a local growing procedure to iteratively build contour trees, and the use of heavy path decompositions for the time complexity analysis. There is a crucial use of a family of binomial heaps to maintain priorities, ensuring that any comparison made is between comparable nodes of the contour tree. We also prove lower bounds showing that the $\Sigma$ pϵP |p| log |p| complexity is inherent to computing contour trees.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual - Version 5.8

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual - Version 5.8

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process ows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number (Re < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic ℎ-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria User Manual (V.5.10)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ($Re$ < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic $h$-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (V.5.10)

Aria is a Galerkin finite element based program for solving coupled-physics problems described by systems of PDEs and is capable of solving nonlinear, implicit, transient and direct-to-steady state problems in two and three dimensions on parallel architectures. The suite of physics currently supported by Aria includes thermal energy transport, species transport, and electrostatics as well as generalized scalar, vector and tensor transport equations. Additionally, Aria includes support for manufacturing process flows via the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations specialized to a low Reynolds number ($Re$ < 1) regime. Enhanced modeling support of manufacturing processing is made possible through use of either arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and level set based free and moving boundary tracking in conjunction with quasi-static nonlinear elastic solid mechanics for mesh control. Coupled physics problems are solved in several ways including fully-coupled Newton’s method with analytic or numerical sensitivities, fully-coupled Newton-Krylov methods and a loosely-coupled nonlinear iteration about subsets of the system that are solved using combinations of the aforementioned methods. Error estimation, uniform and dynamic $h$-adaptivity and dynamic load balancing are some of Aria’s more advanced capabilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Bayesian Methods for Analyzing Computer Models

Efficient analysis of computer models is essential for the validation and uncertainty quantification of those models. Surrogate models, and Gaussian processes in particular, are a common and powerful approach to analyzing computer models that treat computer models as a black-box function. Gaussian processes form a Bayesian model over a space of functions that gives a measure of uncertainty about the computer model output at unobserved locations and a framework for sequential sampling. This tutorial will show how to fit Gaussian processes on a series of test functions and apply sequential design techniques to estimate extrema, level sets, and reliabilities of those test functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensing Techniques for Organochlorides through Intermolecular Interaction with Bicyclic Amidines

Toxic organochloride molecules are widely used in industry for various purposes. With their high volatility, the direct detection of organochlorides in environmental samples is challenging. Here, a new organochloride detection mechanism using 1,5-diazabicyclo[4.3.0]non-5-ene (DBN) is introduced to simplify a sensing method with higher detection sensitivity. Three types of organochloride compounds-trichloroethylene (TCE), dichloromethane (DCM), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT)—were targeted to understand DCM conjugation chemistry by using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and liquid chromatography with a mass spectrometer (LC-MS). 13C-NMR spectra and LC-MS data indicated that DBN can be labeled on these organochloride compounds by chlorine–nitrogen interaction. Furthermore, to demonstrate the organochloride sensing capability, the labeling yield and limit of detection were determined by a colorimetric assay as well as micellar electrokinetic chromatography (MEKC). The interaction with DBN was most appreciable for TCE, among other organochlorides. TCE was detected at picomolar levels, which is two orders of magnitude lower than the maximum contaminant level set by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. MEKC, in conjunction with this DBN-labeling method, enables us to develop a field-deployable sensing platform for detecting toxic organochlorides with high sensitivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress in Constraining Nuclear Symmetry Energy Using Neutron Star Observables Since GW170817

The density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy is among the most uncertain parts of the Equation of State (EOS) of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter. It is currently poorly known especially at suprasaturation densities partially because of our poor knowledge about isovector nuclear interactions at short distances. Because of its broad impacts on many interesting issues, pinning down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy has been a longstanding and shared goal of both astrophysics and nuclear physics. New observational data of neutron stars including their masses, radii, and tidal deformations since GW170817 have helped improve our knowledge about nuclear symmetry energy, especially at high densities. Based on various model analyses of these new data by many people in the nuclear astrophysics community, while our brief review might be incomplete and biased unintentionally, we learned in particular the following: (1) The slope parameter L of nuclear symmetry energy at saturation density ρ0 of nuclear matter from 24 new analyses of neutron star observables was about L≈57.7±19 MeV at a 68% confidence level, consistent with its fiducial value from surveys of over 50 earlier analyses of both terrestrial and astrophysical data within error bars. (2) The curvature Ksym of nuclear symmetry energy at ρ0 from 16 new analyses of neutron star observables was about Ksym≈−107±88 MeV at a 68% confidence level, in very good agreement with the systematics of earlier analyses. (3) The magnitude of nuclear symmetry energy at 2ρ0, i.e., Esym(2ρ0)≈51±13 MeV at a 68% confidence level, was extracted from nine new analyses of neutron star observables, consistent with the results from earlier analyses of heavy-ion reactions and the latest predictions of the state-of-the-art nuclear many-body theories. (4) While the available data from canonical neutron stars did not provide tight constraints on nuclear symmetry energy at densities above about 2ρ0, the lower radius boundary R2.01=12.2 km from NICER’s very recent observation of PSR J0740+6620 of mass 2.08±0.07M⊙ and radius R=12.2–16.3 km at a 68% confidence level set a tight lower limit for nuclear symmetry energy at densities above 2ρ0. (5) Bayesian inferences of nuclear symmetry energy using models encapsulating a first-order hadron–quark phase transition from observables of canonical neutron stars indicated that the phase transition shifted appreciably both L and Ksym to higher values, but with larger uncertainties compared to analyses assuming no such phase transition. (6) The high-density behavior of nuclear symmetry energy significantly affected the minimum frequency necessary to rotationally support GW190814’s secondary component of mass (2.50–2.67) M⊙ as the fastest and most massive pulsar discovered so far. Overall, thanks to the hard work of many people in the astrophysics and nuclear physics community, new data of neutron star observations since the discovery of GW170817 have significantly enriched our knowledge about the symmetry energy of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

EGR Dilution and Fuel Property Effects on High-Efficiency Spark-Ignition Flames

Modern spark ignition internal combustion engines rely on fast combustion rates and high dilution to achieve high brake thermal efficiencies. To accomplish this, new engine designs have moved towards increased tumble ratios and stroke-to-bore ratios. Increased tumble ratios correlate positively with increases in turbulent kinetic energy and improved fuel and residual gas mixing, all of which favor faster and more efficient combustion. Longer stroke-to-bore ratios allow higher geometric compression ratios and use of late intake valve closing to control peak compression pressures and temperatures. The addition of dilution to improve efficiency is limited by the resulting increase in combustion instabilities manifested by cycle-to-cycle variability. A number of effects - preferential diffusion, turbulence-combustion interactions, stochastic flow patterns, laminar-turbulent flame kernel transitions, and relative length and velocity scales between flame and turbulence - are believed to be responsible for the increase in cycle-to-cycle variations, where their contributions are likely interlinked. Several studies have shown the influence of stochastic flow characteristics on the nature of combustion instabilities, such as velocity patterns on flame kernel formation and cycle-to-cycle variations in residual gas. However, few have focused on the specific effects of fuel properties. The objective of this work is to contrast the effects of dilution on propane stoichiometric combustion against gasoline. Dilution tolerance experiments were conducted in a purpose-built high stroke-to-bore ratio single cylinder engine with both gasoline and LPG. Three-dimensional full cycle computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations employing a level-set combustion approach and Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling was used to qualitatively assess the changes in length and velocity scales for turbulence and the flame. The experimental results showed that LPG can tolerate higher exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) dilution under a variety of conditions. Analysis of CFD simulations showed that propane flames are likely less sensitive to influences from the flow field due to less thickening of the flame and higher effective flame speeds.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODELING OF THE CFR ENGINE FOR THE INVESTIGATION OF SI NATURAL GAS COMBUSTION AND CONTROLLED END-GAS AUTOIGNITION

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by low emission limits and the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline quality natural gas. Depending on the region and the source of the natural gas, its reactivity, described by its methane number (analogous to the octane number for liquid SI fuels) can span from 65 - 95. In order to realize diesel-like efficiencies, SI natural gas engines must be designed to operate at high BMEP near knock limits over a wide range of fuel reactivity. This requires a deep understanding regarding the combustion-engine interactions pertaining to flame propagation and end-gas autoignition (EGAI). However, EGAI, if controlled, provides an opportunity to increase SI natural gas engine efficiency by increasing combustion rate and the total burned fuel, mitigating the effects of the slow flame speeds of natural gas fuels which generally reduce BMEP and increase unburned hydrocarbon emissions. For this reason, in order to study EGAI phenomenon, the present work highlights multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of the Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine. The CFR engine models are used to investigate fuel-engine interactions that lead to EGAI with natural gas, including effects of fuel reactivity, engine operating parameters, and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). A Three-Pressure Analysis, performed with GT-Power, was used to estimate initial and boundary conditions for the three-dimensional CFD model. CONVERGE CFD v2.4 was used for the three-dimensional CFD modeling where the level set G-Equation model and SAGE detailed chemical kinetics solver were used. An assessment of the different modeling approaches is also provided to evaluate their limitations, advantages and disadvantages, and for which situations they are most applicable. Model validation was performed with experimental data taken with a CFR engine over varying compression ratio, CA50, EGR fraction, and IMEP and shows good agreement in Peak Cylinder Pressure (PCP), PCP crank angle, and the location of the 10%, 50%, and 90% mass fraction burned (CA10, CA50, and CA90, respectively). The models can predict the onset crank angle and pressure rise rate for light, medium, and heavy EGAI under a variety of fuel reactivities and engine operating conditions.

Bestel, Diego↗
DOE OSTI2024

MFANS 2024 - Formally Proving Characteristics of Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are engineered systems that rely on the smooth integration of computational algorithms and physical elements. This integration presents new challenges for verifying that systems will behave as expected. The goal of this presentation is to present current challenges and potential solutions for the formal verification of cyber-physical systems. For cyber systems, formal methods refer to systematically rigorous mathematical techniques employed in the specification, development, analysis, and verification of both software and hardware systems. Recent advancements in computer science have yielded sophisticated tools specifically designed to address challenges associated with formal methods in complex systems. These tools leverage various foundational concepts such as logic, formal languages, program semantics, type systems, type theory, and automata theory. A notable achievement in the application of formal methods is the seL4 microkernel, claimed to be the first general-purpose operating-system kernel to be verified. Its proof implies the absence of bugs and guarantees that the kernel meets specifications. For physical systems, dynamic and control theory has a history of using rigorous analytic techniques to prove functional correctness. Lyapunov, optimal, classical, modern, and robust control theories all provide rigorous mathematical methods both to analyze system performance and to design controller that can be guaranteed to meet certain objectives. Recent computational techniques like level set theory and reachability analysis provide assertions that a system's state will avoid unsafe regions. Even though success has been independently achieved for cyber systems and physical systems, the integration of such systems creates new challenges. In particular, there is an obvious discrepancy between finite-state machines and infinite-state systems, resulting in different approaches for modeling and analyzing these system. While it is possible to simulate hybrid systems, this provides only a demonstration of a performance and not proof. For hybrid systems, current formal methods and system analysis approaches typically require a workarounds to work on hybrid systems like CPS. This paper will outline the state of the art and limits of current practice for formally verifying CPS and will identify possible research directions that require attention.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing a Control Strategy for Minimum Airflow Setting Considering CO2 Level and Energy Consumption in a Variable Air Volume System

In an office building equipped with a Variable Air Volume (VAV) system, this paper introduces a novel method for controlling the minimum supply airflow fraction in each zone’s VAV box, having a capability to consider indoor CO2 level and energy consumption. The EnergyPlus simulation using the medium office prototype model was employed, which evaluated the performance of the energy and CO2 concentration for five VAV box airflow control strategies. The paper focuses on CO2 concentration-based airflow control method and compares it with other four methods including conventional single-max, reduced minimum single-max, demand-controlled ventilation(DCV), and dualmax control methods according to guidelines and common practices. The newly proposed control strategy directly correlates the minimum airflow fraction to CO2 concentration. A general trend emerged when comparing CO2 concentrations—lower minimum airflow fractions were associated with higher concentrations. The proposed control method effectively maintained low CO2 concentrations and enabled a lower airflow fraction contributing to energy consumption reduction. It was confirmed that heating energy consumption in climate zone 4A, 5B, and 6A showed a maximum saving of approximately 30% compared to the conventional single-max and dual max control strategies. It was found that cooling energy consumption in climate zone 4A and 6A can achieve a maximum saving of approximately 10% compared to the conventional control strategies. The proposed CO2 concentration-based control logic is promising as it not only improves the indoor air quality lowering the CO2 concentration in the occupied spaces, but also contributes to HVAC energy savings.

Lee, Jong Man↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summary of Assessments Performed in FY 21 by SNL QA POC for FY 20 SNL NFCSC Milestone Deliverables

The Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) staff is meeting the requirements of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) Quality Assurance Program Document (QAPD). Each of the 5 NFCSC FY 20 packages for SNL were reviewed. None of the 5 packages had incorrect QRL categories. No major corrective actions are assigned. Additional and minor PICS:NE checkbox errors may exist, but none were identified in this assessment. Training is now also geared to encourage WPMs to take credit for optional technical reviews by considering setting the QRL level to 3. This is because when the level is set to 4, the PICS:NE system does not provide fields for review information. Finally, training in the NFCSC QAPD has been delivered as always to WPMs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for Higgs boson decays into a Z boson and a light hadronically decaying resonance in pp collisions at s =13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for decays of the Higgs boson into a Z boson and a light resonance, with a mass of 0.5–3.5 GeV, is performed using the full 140 fb−1 dataset of 13 TeV proton–proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector during LHC Run 2. Leptonic decays of the Z boson and hadronic decays of the light resonance are considered. The resonance can be interpreted as a J / ψ or η c meson, an axion-like particle, or a light pseudoscalar predicted in two-Higgs-doublet models. Due to its low mass, this resonance is produced with a high Lorentz boost in the laboratory frame and therefore reconstructed as a single small-radius jet of hadrons. A neural network is used to correct the Monte Carlo simulation of the total expected background using data from sideband regions. Two additional neural networks are used to distinguish signal from background, enhancing the purity of the signal region. A binned profile-likelihood fit is performed on the final-state invariant mass distribution. No significant excess of events relative to the expected background is observed, and upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the Higgs boson's branching fraction to a Z boson and a light resonance. The exclusion limit is ∼10% for the lower masses, and increases for higher masses. Upper limits on the effective coupling C Z H eff / Λ of an axion-like particle to a Higgs boson and Z boson are also set at 95% confidence level, and range from 0.9 to 2 TeV−1.

Aad, G↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intersections of Disadvantaged Communities and Renewable Energy Potential: Data Set and Analysis to Inform Equitable Investment Prioritization in the United States

Renewable energy development can bolster local economies through job creation, local tax revenues, and reduced energy costs; however, communities most in need of economic development and employment opportunities often see lower levels of renewable energy deployment. We sought to identify areas where disadvantaged community indicators and high generation potential from cost-effective renewable energy opportunities intersect and deployment could lead to economic development and job creation. This presentation will highlight several of our findings. This research and the associated county-level data set are intended to inform national- and state-level energy-related assistance programs, economic development efforts, and infrastructure programs seeking to prioritize investments in disadvantaged communities.

community energy planning↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Solar Influencer Next Door: Predicting Low-Income Solar Referrals and Leads

Increasing the adoption of solar among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households remains an important policy goal because of its promise to simultaneously reduce energy burden and support the just distribution of benefits of renewable energy. However, scaling LMI solar remains challenging due to affordability and access issues. Most existing LMI adoption has occurred under public-funded programs, highlighting the importance of increasing the cost-effectiveness of these programs at scale. We develop a new household-level data set on LMI solar lead acquisition, referrals, and adoption to understand the processes through which LMI solar uptake has occurred in California. Then, we develop models to predict two sub-mechanisms in the solar adoption process: whether an otherwise qualified lead becomes "lost" i.e. non-responsive to outreach and, for existing clients, whether they refer solar to others. For the program analyzed, participants received their solar system at no cost, which deemphasizes economic drivers of solar adoption and could differ from other program experiences. Both models substantially improved the accuracy of prediction relative to a baseline. Overall, we find that peer effects and solar economics are important to predicting referrals, and household demographic factors in lead loss prediction. Finally, we find that referrals are both the highest quality and largest source of LMI solar leads, providing a promising mechanism to expand LMI programs further.

customer acquisition costs↗