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A Monte Carlo test particle model was developed that simulates the charge evolution of micron and sub-micron sized dust grains ejected upon low-energy impact of a moderate-size object onto a lunar polar crater floor. Our analog is the LCROSS impact into Cabeus crater. Our primary objective is to model grain discharging as the plume propagates upwards from shadowed crater into sunlight.
A comprehensive analysis of volatiles in the Chicxulub impact strongly supports the hypothesis that impact-generated sulfate aerosols caused over a decade of global cooling, acid rain, and disruption of ocean circulation, which contributed to the mass extinction at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. The crater size, meteoritic content of the K/T boundary clay, and impact models indicate that the Chicxulub crater was formed by a short period comet or an asteroid impact that released 0.7-3.4 x 10(31) ergs of energy. Impact models and experiments combined with estimates of volatiles in the projectile and target rocks predict that over 200 gigatons (Gt) each of SO2 and water vapor, and over 500 Gt of CO2, were globally distributed in the stratosphere by the impact. Additional volatiles may have been produced on a global or regional scale that formed sulfate aerosols rapidly in cooler parts of the vapor plume, causing an early, intense pulse of sulfuric acid rain. Estimates of the conversion rate of stratospheric SO2 and water vapor to sulfate aerosol, based on volcanic production of sulfate aerosols, coupled with calculations of diffusion, coagulation, and sedimentation, demonstrate that the 200 Gt stratospheric SO2 and water vapor reservoir would produce sulfate aerosols for 12 years. These sulfate aerosols caused a second pulse of acid rain that was global. Radiative transfer modeling of the aerosol clouds demonstrates (1) that if the initial rapid pulse of sulfate aerosols was global, photosynthesis may have been shut down for 6 months and (2) that for the second prolonged aerosol cloud, solar transmission dropped 80% by the end of first year and remained 50% below normal for 9 years. As a result, global average surface temperatures probably dropped between 5 degrees and 31 degrees K, suggesting that global near-freezing conditions may have been reached. Impact-generated CO2 caused less than 1 degree K greenhouse warming and therefore was insignificant compare to the sulfate cooling. The magnitude of sulfate cooling depends largely upon the rate of ocean mixing as surface waters cool, sink, and are replaced by upwelling of deep ocean water. This upwelling apparently drastically altered ocean stratification and circulation, which may explain the global collapse of the delta 13C gradient between surface and deep ocean waters at the K/T boundary.
NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) is leading an evaluation effort in advanced destructive and nondestructive testing of composite pressure vessels and structures. WSTF is using progressive finite element analysis methods for test design and for confirmation of composite pressure vessel performance. Using composite finite element analysis models and failure theories tested in the World-Wide Failure Exercise, WSTF is able to estimate the static strength of composite pressure vessels. Additionally, test and evaluation on composites that have been impact damaged is in progress so that models can be developed to estimate damage tolerance and the degradation in static strength.
A comprehensive analysis of volatiles in the Chicxulub impact strongly supports the hypothesis that impact-generated sulfate aerosols caused over a decade of global cooling, acid rain, and disruption of ocean circulation, which contributed to the mass extinction at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. The crater size, meteoritic content of the K/T boundary clay, and impact models indicate that the Chicxulub crater was formed by a short period comet or an asteroid impact that released 0.7-3.4 x 10(exp 31) ergs of energy. Impact models and experiments combined with estimates of volatiles in the projectile and target rocks predict that over 200 gigatons (Gt) each of SO2 and water vapor, and over 500 Gt of CO2, were globally distributed in the stratosphere by the impact.
It is clear from the great diversity of atmospheres among the terrestrial planets that their formation and evolution must have depended on a balance among a number of different processes. One of these processes is atmospheric erosion by impacts, which may have been particularly effective on Mars. The reason is that geomorphic evidence on Mars suggests that this planet had, early in its history, dense enough atmosphere to sustain active precipitation over geologically significant periods of time. Analytic calculations indicate that neither the projectile entering the atmosphere nor the main crater ejecta can cause the lose of significant amounts of atmosphere. The vapor plume that is formed, however, expands rapidly as its internal energy is converted into kinetic energy, and may blow off the overlying atmosphere. A model of this part of the impact/atmosphere interaction predicts Mars could have lost a substantial early atmosphere by impact erosion alone. Although our more detailed calculations, which took into account the anisotropy of the atmosphere with respect to zenith angle, show that the process isn't quite as effective, they still indicate the probability of substantial atmospheric loss from Mars. The first results from 2-D hydrocode runs are discussed. These include two runs which make most of the same simplifying approximations as the analytic models, in order to compare the analytic and numerical results directly, and one run (as yet incomplete) that models the full impact.
Impact cratering is a complex natural phenomenon that involves various physical and mechanical processes. Simulating these processes may be improved using the data obtained during the deep drilling at the central mound of the Puchezh-Katunki impact structure. A research deep drillhole (named Vorotilovskaya) has been drilled in the Puchezh-Katunki impact structure (European Russia, 57 deg 06 min N, 43 deg 35 min E). The age of the structure is estimated at about 180 to 200 m.y. The initial rim crater diameter is estimated at about 40 km. The central uplift is composed of large blocks of crystalline basement rocks. Preliminary study of the core shows that crystalline rocks are shock metamorphosed by shock pressure from 45 GPa near the surface to 15-20 GPa at a depth of about 5 km. The drill core allows the possibility of investigating many previously poorly studied cratering processes in the central part of the impact structure. As a first step one can use the estimates of energy for the homogeneous rock target. The diameter of the crater rim may be estimated as 40 km. The models elaborated earlier show that such a crater may be formed after collapse of a transient cavity with a radius of 10 km. The most probable range of impact velocities from 11.2 to 30 km/s may be inferred for the asteroidal impactor. For the density of a projectile of 2 g/cu cm the energy of the impact is estimated as 1E28 to 3E28 erg. In the case of vertical impact, the diameter of an asteroidal projectile is from 1.5 to 3 km for the velocity range from 11 to 30 km/s. For the most probable impact angle of 45 deg, the estimated diameter of an asteroid is slightly larger: from 2 to 4 km. Numerical simulation of the transient crater collapse has been done using several models of rock rheology during collapse. Results show that the column at the final position beneath the central mound is about 5 km in length. This value is close to the shock-pressure decay observed along the drill core. Further improvement of the model needs to take into account the blocky structure of target rocks revealed by drilling.
Simulations of a cumulonimbus cloud observed in the Cirrus regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) with an advanced version of the Explicit Microphysics Model (EMM) are presented. The EMM has size-resolved aerosols and predicts the time evolution of sizes, bulk densities and axial ratios of ice particles. Observations by multiple aircraft in the troposphere provide inputs to the model, including observations of the ice nuclei and of the entire size distribution of condensation nuclei. Homogeneous droplet freezing is found to be the source of almost all of the ice crystals in the anvil updraught of this particular model cloud. Most of the simulated droplets that freeze to form anvil crystals appear to be nucleated by activation of aerosols far above cloud base in the interior of the cloud ("secondary" or "in cloud" droplet nucleation). This is partly because primary droplets formed at cloud base are invariably depleted by accretion before they can reach the anvil base in the updraught, which promotes an increase with height of the average supersaturation in the updraught aloft. More than half of these aerosols, activated far above cloud base, are entrained into the updraught of this model cloud from the lateral environment above about 5 km above mean sea level. This confirms the importance of remote sources of atmospheric aerosol for anvil glaciation. Other nucleation processes impinge indirectly upon the anvil glaciation by modifying the concentration of supercooled droplets in the upper levels of the mixed-phase region. For instance, the warm-rain process produces a massive indirect impact on the anvil crystal concentration, because it determines the mass of precipitation forming in the updraught. It competes with homogeneous freezing as a sink for cloud droplets. The effects from turbulent enhancement of the warm-rain process and from the nucleation processes on the anvil ice properties are assessed.
Damage tolerance is the most critical technical issue for composite fuselage structures studied in the Advanced Technology Composite Aircraft Structures (ATCAS) program. The objective here is to understand both the impact damage resistance and residual strength of the laminated composite fuselage structure. An understanding of the different damage mechanisms which occur during an impact event will support the selection of materials and structural configurations used in different fuselage quadrants and guide the development of analysis tools for predicting the residual strength of impacted laminates. Prediction of the damage state along with the knowledge of post-impact response to applied loads will allow for engineered stacking sequencies and structural configurations; intelligent decisions on repair requirements will also result.
Scheduled arriving aircraft demand may exceed airport arrival capacity when there is abnormal weather at an airport. In such situations, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) institutes ground-delay programs (GDP) to delay flights before they depart from their originating airports. Efficient GDP planning depends on the accuracy of prediction of airport capacity and demand in the presence of uncertainties in weather forecast. This paper presents a study of the impact of dynamic airport surface weather on GDPs. Using the National Traffic Management Log, effect of weather conditions on the characteristics of GDP events at selected busy airports is investigated. Two machine learning methods are used to generate models that map the airport operational conditions and weather information to issued GDP parameters and results of validation tests are described.
Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D, see a brief review by Tao 2003). Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, at NOAA GFDL, at the U. K. Met. Office, at Colorado State University and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Tao 2003). At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (September 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (June 2-11, 1998), ARM (June 26-30, 1997) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 by 512 km domain (with 2-km resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. However, there are difference in radiation, surface fluxes and precipitation characteristics. The 2D GCE model was used to perform a long-term integration on ARM/GCSS case 4 (22 days at the ARM Southern Great Plains site in March 2000). Preliminary results showed a large temperature bias in the upper troposphere that had not been seen in previous tropical cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to determine the sensitivities to model configuration (i.e., 2D in west-east, south-north or 3D), (2) to identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between 2D- and 3D-simulated ARM cloud systems, and (3) assess the impact of upper tropospheric forcing on tropical and ARM case 4 cases.
Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D, see a brief review by Tao 2003). Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, at NOAA GFDL, at the U. K. Met. Office, at Colorado State University and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Tao 2003). At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (September 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (June 2-11, 1998), ARM (June 26-30, 1997) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 km domain (with 2-kilometer resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. However, there are difference in radiation, surface fluxes and precipitation characteristics. The 2D GCE model was used to perform a long-term integration on ARM/GCSS case 4 (22 days at the ARM southern Great Plains site in March 2000). Preliminary results showed a large temperature bias in the upper troposphere that had not been seen in previous tropical cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to determine the sensitivities to model configuration (ie., 2D in west-east, south-north or 3D), (2) to identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between 2D- and 3D-simulated ARM cloud systems, and (3) assess the impact of upper tropospheric forcing on tropical and ARM case 4 cases.
The approx. 100 km in diameter, 35.7 0.2 Ma old Popigai structure [1], northern Siberia (Russia), is the best-preserved of the large terrestrial complex crater structures containing a central-peak ring [2- 4]. Although remotely located, the excellent outcrops, large number of drill cores, and wealth of geochemical data make Popigai ideal for the general study of the cratering processes. It is most famous for its impact-diamonds [2,5]. Popigai is the best candidate for the source crater of the worldwide late Eocene ejecta [6,7].
A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. For this model, it was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impacts). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics, throughout the telecommunications system.
The Crew Impact Attenuation System (CIAS) is the energy-absorbing strut concept that dampens Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) landing loads to levels sustainable by the crew. Significant COM variations across suited crew configurations would amplify the inertial effects of the pallet and potentially create unacceptable crew loading during launch and landing. The objective of this study was to obtain data needed for dynamic simulation models by quantifying the effects of posture, suit components, and the expected range of anthropometry on the COM of a seated individual. Several elements are required for the COM calculation of a suited human in a seated position: anthropometry, body segment mass, suit component mass, suit component location relative to the body, and joint angles defining the seated posture. Three-dimensional (3D) human body models, suit mass data, and vector calculus were utilized to compute the COM positions for 12 boundary manikins in two different seated postures. The analysis focused on two objectives: (1) quantify how much the wholebody COM varied from the smallest to largest subject and (2) quantify the effects of the suit components on the overall COM in each seat configuration. The location of the anterior-posterior COM varied across all boundary manikins by about 7 cm, and the vertical COM varied by approximately 9 to 10 cm. The mediolateral COM varied by 1.2 cm from the midline sagittal plane for both seat configurations. The suit components caused an anterior shift of the total COM by approximately 2 cm and a shift to the right along the mediolateral axis of 0.4 cm for both seat configurations. When the seat configuration was in the standard posture the suited vertical COM shifted inferiorly by as much as 1 cm, whereas in the CEV posture the vertical COM had no appreciable change. These general differences were due to the high proportion of suit mass located in the boots and lower legs and their corresponding distance from the body COM, as well as to the prevalence of suit components on the right side of the body.
A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. It was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impact). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics throughout the telecommunications system.
When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required
Understanding the radiation environment due to solar energetic particles in the heliosphere and the Earth’s magnetosphere is a challenging and practically important task. Exposure to energetic particles often leads to malfunctions and unexpected failures of electronics onboard spacecraft. The most vulnerable are exploratory missions when outside of the Earth’s magnetosphere. Geomagnetic field deflects Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) moving through geospace though some of these particles propagate to LEO and have a high penetrating capability, thus producing significant radiation hazards for human spaceflight. Solar energetic particles also have an essential effect on the composition and dynamics of the Earth’s atmosphere. Precipitating SEPs enhance the atmospheric concentration of NOx and HOx, which play a crucial role in the ozone balance in the middle atmosphere by destroying odd oxygen through catalytic reactions. Numerical modeling of the radiation environment due to SEPs in the inner heliosphere and geospace is a multifold problem. That includes simulating 1) solar wind dynamics and the interplanetary magnetic field, 2) global modeling of the Earth’s magnetosphere, and 3) modeling transport and acceleration of SEPs in the inner heliosphere and geospace. The lecture will outline the key physical processes that control the behavior of SEPs in the heliosphere and geospace, along with the contemporary numerical methods used for their modeling. It will primarily focus on describing the SEP population in geospace across different altitudes, ranging from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) through Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geostationary Orbit (GEO), up to the magnetopause, while considering the realistic geomagnetic field. Additionally, the lecture will cover how the SEP population in geospace varies in response to geomagnetic activity. This includes the temporal trapping of SEPs in geospace and the reduction of the rigidity cutoff during geomagnetic storms.
In runoff generation process, soil moisture plays an important role as it controls the magnitude of the flood events to the rainfall inputs. In this study, we investigated the ability of a new era of satellite soil moisture retrievals to improve the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily discharge simulations via soil moisture data assimilation for two small (< 500 km2) and hydrologically different catchments located in Central Italy. We ingested 1) the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global Daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, 2) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) H113 soil moisture product released within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) which has a nearly daily temporal resolution and sampling of 12.5 km, and 3) a fused ASCAT/Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite soil moisture product named SCATSAR-SWI with temporal and spatial sampling of 1 day and 1 km, respectively into SWAT hydrological model via Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Different configurations were tested with the aim of exploring the effect of the hydrological regime, the land use conditions, the spatial sampling and the revisit time of the products (which controls the amount of available data to be potentially ingested). Results show a general improvement of SWAT discharge simulations for all products in terms of error and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index. In particular, we found a relatively good behavior of both the active and the passive products in terms of low flows improvement especially for the catchment characterized by a higher baseflow component. The benefit of the higher spatial resolution of SCATSAR obtained via S1 over ASCAT was small likely due to very challenging areas for S1 retrieval. Eventually, better performances were obtained for the passive product in the more forested catchment. With the aim of exploring the benefit of having more frequent satellite soil moisture observations to be ingested, we tested the performance of the ASCAT product with a reduced temporal sampling obtained by temporally matching ASCAT observations to that of SMAP. The results show a significant reduction of the performance of ASCAT, suggesting that the correction frequency (due to the higher number of observations available) for small catchments is an important aspect for improving flood forecasting as it helps to adjust more frequently the soil moisture pre-storm conditions.