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A duty cycle hypothesis for the central engines of LINERs

A recent ultraviolet snaphsot imaging survey of the nuclei of nearby galaxies detected a compact nuclear ultraviolet source in only five of the 26 LINERs (low-ionization nuclear emission-line regions) included in the observed sample. Motivated by this observational result, we examine the possibility that all LINERs are powered by photoionization from a nuclear source, which is, however, active only for 20% of the time. We show that decay times of low-ionization species can be of the order of one to a few centuries, and we demonstrate through time-dependent photoionization calculations that if the nuclear ionizing source is active for only a fraction of the time, this would not be readily noticeable in the emission-line spectrum. We suggest that the activity cycle is related to episodic accretion events which are associated with the tidal disruption of stars by a central black hole. The time interval between tidal disruptions is of the same order as the emission-line decay time, with the accretion episode following each disruption lasting a few decades. These estimates appear to support the duty cycle hypothesis. Some observational consequences of the proposed scenario are also discussed.

Eracleous, Michael

The Hypothesis of Caves on Mars Revisited Through MGS Data; Their Potential as Targets for the Surveyor Program

In a previous publication, we proposed the formation of caves at mega and microscale on Mars and emphasized their potential for the exobiology exploration. The recent MOC images have shown promising indicators that caves are actually existing on Mars. In the first section, we develop the theoretical potential formation of martian caves. Then, we show how MOC is supporting this hypothesis of their formation and the new types of environments it suggests. The existence of caves on Mars from microscale to microscale structures can be predicted according to the Mars geological and climatic history. A first global approach is to consider caves as a result of underground water activity combined with tectonic movement. They can be formed by: (1) diversion of channel courses in underground conduits; (2) fractures of surface drainage patterns; chaotic terrain and collapsed areas in general; (4) seepage face in valley walls and/or headwaters; (5) inactive hydrothermal vents and lava tubes.

Grin, E. A.

Low-Frequency Otolith Function in Microgravity: A Re-Evaluation of the Otolith Tilt-Translation Reinterpretation (OTTR) Hypothesis

On Earth, the low-frequency afferent signal from the otoliths encodes head tilt with respect to the gravitational vertical, and the higher frequency components reflect both tilt and linear acceleration of the head. In microgravity, static tilt of the head does not influence otolith output, and the relationship between sensory input from the vestibular organs, and the visual, proprioceptive and somatosensory systems, would be disrupted. Several researchers have proposed that in 0-g this conflict may induce a reinterpretation of all otolith signals by the brain to encode only linear translation (otolith tilt-translation reinterpretation or OTTR). Ocular counter-rolling (OCR) is a low-frequency otolith-mediated reflex, which generates compensatory torsional eye movements (rotation about the visual axis) towards the spatial vertical during static roll tilt with a gain of approximately 10%. Transient linear acceleration and off-axis centrifugation at a constant angular velocity can also generate OCR. According to the OTTR hypothesis, OCR should be reduced in microgravity, and immediately upon return from a 0-g environment. Results to date have been inconclusive. OCR was reduced following the 10 day Spacelab-1 mission in response to leftward roll tilts (28-56% in 3 subjects and unchanged in one subject), and sinusoidal linear oscillations at 0.4 and 0.8 Hz. OCR gain declined 70% in four monkeys following a 14 day COSMOS mission. Following a 30 day MIR mission OCR gain decreased in one astronaut, but increased in two others following a 180 day mission. We have studied the affect of microgravity on low-frequency otolith function as part of a larger study of the interaction of vision and the vestibular system. This experiment (E-047) involved off-axis centrifugation of payload crewmembers and flew aboard the recent Neurolab mission (STS 90). Presented below are preliminary results focusing on perception and the OCR response during both centrifugation and static tilt.

Moore, Steven T.

A Reassessment of the Mars Ocean Hypothesis

Initial work on the identification and mapping of potential ancient shorelines on Mars was based on Viking Orbiter image data (Parker et al., 1987, 1989, 1993). The Viking Orbiters were designed to locate landing site for the two landers and were not specifically intended to map the entire planet. Fortunately, they mapped the entire planet. Unfortunately, they did so at an average resolution of greater than 200m/pixel. Higher resolution images, even mosaics of interesting regions, are available, but relatively sparse. Mapping of shorelines on Earth requires both high-resolution aerial photos or satellite images and good topographic information. Three significant sources of additional data from missions subsequent to Viking are useful for reassessing the ocean hypothesis. These are: MGS MOC images; MGS MOLA topography; Odyssey THEMIS IR and VIS images; and MER surface geology at Meridiani and Gusev. Okay, my mistake: Four.

Parker, T. J.

The sympathetic nervous system and the physiologic consequences of spaceflight: a hypothesis

Many of the physiologic consequences of weightlessness and the cardiovascular abnormalities on return from space could be due, at least in part, to alterations in the regulation of the autonomic nervous system. In this article, the authors review the rationale and evidence for an autonomic mediation of diverse changes that occur with spaceflight, including the anemia and hypovolemia of weightlessness and the tachycardia and orthostatic intolerance on return from space. This hypothesis is supported by studies of two groups of persons known to have low catecholamine levels: persons subjected to prolonged bedrest and persons with syndromes characterized by low circulating catecholamines (Bradbury-Eggleston syndrome and dopamine beta-hydroxylase deficiency). Both groups exhibit the symptoms mentioned. The increasing evidence that autonomic mechanisms underlie many of the physiologic consequences of weightlessness suggests that new pharmacologic approaches (such as administration of beta-blockers and/or sympathomimetic amines) based on these findings may attenuate these unwanted effects.

short duration

Statistical Analyses of Satellite Cloud Object Data from CERES: Tropical Convective Cloud Objects During 1998 El Nino and Validation of the Fixed Anvil Temperature Hypothesis - Part II

Characteristics of tropical deep convective cloud objects observed over the tropical Pacific during January-August 1998 are examined using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/ Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System single scanner footprint (SSF) data. These characteristics include the frequencies of occurrence and statistical distributions of cloud physical properties. Their variations with cloud-object size, sea surface temperature (SST), and satellite precessing cycle are analyzed in detail. A cloud object is defined as a contiguous patch of the Earth composed of satellite footprints within a single dominant cloud-system type. It is found that statistical distributions of cloud physical properties are significantly different among three size categories of cloud objects with equivalent diameters of 100 - 150 km (small), 150 - 300 km (medium), and > 300 km (large), respectively, except for the distributions of ice particle size. The distributions for the larger-size category of cloud objects are more skewed towards high SSTs, high cloud tops, low cloud-top temperature, large ice water path, high cloud optical depth, low outgoing longwave (LW) radiation, and high albedo than the smaller-size category. As SST varied from one satellite precessing cycle to another, the changes in macrophysical properties of cloud objects over the entire tropical Pacific were small for the large-size category of cloud objects, relative to those of the small- and medium-size categories. This result suggests that the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis of Hartmann and Larson may be valid for the large-size category. Combining with the result that a higher percentage of the large-size category of cloud objects occurs during higher SST subperiods, this implies that macrophysical properties of cloud objects would be less sensitive to further warming of the climate. On the other hand, when cloud objects are classified according to SSTs where large-scale dynamics plays important roles, statistical characteristics of cloud microphysical properties, optical depth and albedo are not sensitive to the SST, but those of cloud macrophysical properties are strongly dependent upon the SST. Frequency distributions of vertical velocity from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts model that is matched to each cloud object are used to interpret some of the findings in this study.

Xu, Kuan-Man

Antarctic NAT PSC Belt of June 2003: Observational Validation of the Mountain Wave Seeding Hypothesis

Satellite observations of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) over Antarctica in June 2003 revealed small nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles forming suddenly along the vortex edge. Models suggest the trigger was mountain waves over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) forming ice for NAT nucleation. We test this hypothesis by analyzing perturbations in stratospheric radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). AIRS data show mountain waves over the AP on 10-14 June, with no resolved wave activity before or after. Peak wave temperature amplitudes derived from independent 40 hPa channels all return values of 10-12 K, in agreement with values used to model this NAT event. These observations support a NAT wake from a small region of mountain wave activity over the AP as the source of this circumpolar NAT outbreak.

PSC (POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS)

Thrust Measurement of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) Plasma Actuators: New Anti-Thrust Hypothesis, Frequency Sweeps Methodology, Humidity and Enclosure Effects

We discuss thrust measurements of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) plasma actuators devices used for aerodynamic active flow control. After a review of our experience with conventional thrust measurement and significant non-repeatability of the results, we devised a suspended actuator test setup, and now present a methodology of thrust measurements with decreased uncertainty. The methodology consists of frequency scans at constant voltages. The procedure consists of increasing the frequency in a step-wise fashion from several Hz to the maximum frequency of several kHz, followed by frequency decrease back down to the start frequency of several Hz. This sequence is performed first at the highest voltage of interest, then repeated at lower voltages. The data in the descending frequency direction is more consistent and selected for reporting. Sample results show strong dependence of thrust on humidity which also affects the consistency and fluctuations of the measurements. We also observed negative values of thrust, or "anti-thrust", at low frequencies between 4 Hz and up to 64 Hz. The anti-thrust is proportional to the mean-squared voltage and is frequency independent. Departures from the parabolic anti-thrust curve are correlated with appearance of visible plasma discharges. We propose the anti-thrust hypothesis. It states that the measured thrust is a sum of plasma thrust and anti-thrust, and assumes that the anti-thrust exists at all frequencies and voltages. The anti-thrust depends on actuator geometry and materials and on the test installation. It enables the separation of the plasma thrust from the measured total thrust. This approach enables more meaningful comparisons between actuators at different installations and laboratories. The dependence on test installation was validated by surrounding the actuator with a grounded large-diameter metal sleeve. Strong dependence on humidity is also shown; the thrust significantly increased with decreasing humidity, e.g., 44 percent increase as relative humidity changed from 18 percent and dew point 33 degF to 50 percent and dew point of 57 degF.

Ashpis, David E.

Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) Plasma Actuators Thrust-Measurement Methodology Incorporating New Anti-Thrust Hypothesis

We discuss thrust measurements of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) plasma actuators devices used for aerodynamic active flow control. After a review of our experience with conventional thrust measurement and significant non-repeatability of the results, we devised a suspended actuator test setup, and now present a methodology of thrust measurements with decreased uncertainty. The methodology consists of frequency scans at constant voltages. The procedure consists of increasing the frequency in a step-wise fashion from several Hz to the maximum frequency of several kHz, followed by frequency decrease back down to the start frequency of several Hz. This sequence is performed first at the highest voltage of interest, then repeated at lower voltages. The data in the descending frequency direction is more consistent and selected for reporting. Sample results show strong dependence of thrust on humidity which also affects the consistency and fluctuations of the measurements. We also observed negative values of thrust or "anti-thrust", at low frequencies between 4 Hz and up to 64 Hz. The anti-thrust is proportional to the mean-squared voltage and is frequency independent. Departures from the parabolic anti-thrust curve are correlated with appearance of visible plasma discharges. We propose the anti-thrust hypothesis. It states that the measured thrust is a sum of plasma thrust and anti-thrust, and assumes that the anti-thrust exists at all frequencies and voltages. The anti-thrust depends on actuator geometry and materials and on the test installation. It enables the separation of the plasma thrust from the measured total thrust. This approach enables more meaningful comparisons between actuators at different installations and laboratories. The dependence on test installation was validated by surrounding the actuator with a large diameter, grounded, metal sleeve.

Ashpis, David E.

Ice-Covered Lakes in Gale Crater Mars: The Cold and Wet Hypothesis

Recent geological discoveries from the Mars Science Laboratory provide evidence that Gale crater may have intermittently hosted a fluvio-lacustine environment during the Hesperian, with individual lakes lasting for a period of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (Grotzinger et al., Science, 350 (6257), 2015). Estimates of the CO2 content of the atmosphere at the time the Gale sediments formed are far less than needed by any climate model to warm early Mars (Bristow et al., Geology, submitted), given the low solar energy input available at Mars 3.5 Gya. We have therefore explored the possibility that the lakes in Gale during the Hesperian were perennially covered with ice using the Antarctic Lakes as an analog. Using our best estimate for the annual mean surface temperature at Gale at this time (approx. 230K) we computed the thickness of an ice-covered lake. These thickness range from 10-30 meters depending on the ablation rate and ice transparency and would likely inhibit sediments from entering the lake. Thus, a first conclusion is that the ice must not be too cold. Raising the mean temperature to 245K is challenging, but not quite as hard as reaching 273K. We found that a mean annual temperature of 245K ice thicknesses range from 3-10 meters. These values are comparable to the range of those for the Antarctic lakes (3-6 m), and are not implausible. And they are not so thick that sediments cannot penetrate the ice. For the ice-covered lake hypothesis to work, however, a melt water source is needed. This could come from subaqueous melting of a glacial dam in contact with the lakes (as is the case for Lake Untersee) or from seasonal melt water from nearby glaciers (as is the case for the Dry Valley lakes). More work is needed to better assess these possibilities. However, the main advantage of the ice-covered lake model (and the main reason we pursued it) is that it relaxes the requirement for a long-lived active hydrological cycle involving rainfall and runoff, which no climate model is able to produce given known constraints on the early Mars environment.

Antarctic lakes

Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Wavelet Analysis: Theoretical Developments and Applications to Indian Rainfall

Statistical hypothesis tests in wavelet analysis are methods that assess the degree to which a wavelet quantity(e.g., power and coherence) exceeds background noise. Commonly, a point-wise approach is adopted in which a wavelet quantity at every point in a wavelet spectrum is individually compared to the critical level of the point-wise test. However, because adjacent wavelet coefficients are correlated and wavelet spectra often contain many wavelet quantities, the point-wise test can produce many false positive results that occur in clusters or patches. To circumvent the point-wise test drawbacks, it is necessary to implement the recently developed area-wise, geometric, cumulative area-wise, and topological significance tests, which are reviewed and developed in this paper. To improve the computational efficiency of the cumulative area-wise test, a simplified version of the testing procedure is created based on the idea that its output is the mean of individual estimates of statistical significance calculated from the geometric test applied at a set of point-wise significance levels. Ideal examples are used to show that the geometric and cumulative area-wise tests are unable to differentiate wavelet spectral features arising from singularity-like structures from those associated with periodicities. A cumulative arc-wise test is therefore developed to strictly test for periodicities by using normalized arc length, which is defined as the number of points composing a cross section of a patch divided by the wavelet scale in question. A previously proposed topological significance test is formalized using persistent homology profiles (PHPs) measuring the number of patches and holes corresponding to the set of all point-wise significance values. Ideal examples show that the PHPs can be used to distinguish time series containing signal components from those that are purely noise. To demonstrate the practical uses of the existing and newly developed statistical methodologies, a first comprehensive wavelet analysis of Indian rainfall is also provided. An R software package has been written by the author to implement the various testing procedures.

Wind speed

Efficient Heuristic Hypothesis Ranking

This paper considers the problem of learning the ranking of a set of stochastic alternatives based upon incomplete information (i.e., a limited number of samples).

machine

Early Stages of Age Hardening in U-6%Nb: An Energy Barrier Hypothesis for Twin Reorientation

It is well known that age hardening occurs in U-6%Nb (Ref. 1-9). Figure 1 shows that increases in hardness occur at aging temperatures up to ~400°C, and overaging occurs above ~450°C. Overaging occurs by cellular decomposition of the αʺ b martensite, similar to overaging reactions in other uranium alloys. But the mechanism of age hardening remains elusive, particularly in its early stages.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Multiple Hypothesis Tracking for Opportunistic Transmitter Identification

The exploitation of radio frequency (RF) signals from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) communication satellites for the purposes of navigation is an active field of research. In this alternative navigation system, navigation observables are passively extracted from existing RF signals. Because these signals are not designed for navigation purposes and often have proprietary signal structures that are unknown to the receiver, they lack much of the information required for navigation systems or such information is unavailable to the receiver.

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