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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic modeling and statistical calibration with model error and scarce data

This paper introduces a procedure to assess the predictive accuracy of stochastic models subject to model error and sparse data. Model error is introduced as uncertainty on the coefficients of appropriate polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The error associated with finite sample size allows us to conceive of these coefficients as statistics of the data that we describe as random variables whose influence on output quantities of interest is evaluated through the extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE). A Bayesian data assimilation scheme is introduced to update these expansions by considering the resulting nested chaos expansion as a hierarchical probabilistic model. Stochastic models of quantities of interest (QoI) are thus constructed and efficiently evaluated. Here, the Metropolis–Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to sample the posterior. Two illustrative analytical and numerical problems are used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2022

How to Obtain the Redshift Distribution from Probabilistic Redshift Estimates

Abstract A reliable estimate of the redshift distribution n ( z ) is crucial for using weak gravitational lensing and large-scale structures of galaxy catalogs to study cosmology. Spectroscopic redshifts for the dim and numerous galaxies of next-generation weak-lensing surveys are expected to be unavailable, making photometric redshift (photo- z ) probability density functions (PDFs) the next best alternative for comprehensively encapsulating the nontrivial systematics affecting photo- z point estimation. The established stacked estimator of n ( z ) avoids reducing photo- z PDFs to point estimates but yields a systematically biased estimate of n ( z ) that worsens with a decreasing signal-to-noise ratio, the very regime where photo- z PDFs are most necessary. We introduce Cosmological Hierarchical Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts ( CHIPPR ), a statistically rigorous probabilistic graphical model of redshift-dependent photometry that correctly propagates the redshift uncertainty information beyond the best-fit estimator of n ( z ) produced by traditional procedures and is provably the only self-consistent way to recover n ( z ) from photo- z PDFs. We present the chippr prototype code, noting that the mathematically justifiable approach incurs computational cost. The CHIPPR approach is applicable to any one-point statistic of any random variable, provided the prior probability density used to produce the posteriors is explicitly known; if the prior is implicit, as may be the case for popular photo- z techniques, then the resulting posterior PDFs cannot be used for scientific inference. We therefore recommend that the photo- z community focus on developing methodologies that enable the recovery of photo- z likelihoods with support over all redshifts, either directly or via a known prior probability density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a pair-based, joint-likelihood association approach for regional infrasound event identification

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework for the association of infrasonic detections is presented and evaluated for analysis at regional propagation scales. A pair-based, joint-likelihood association approach is developed that identifies events by computing the probability that individual detection pairs are attributable to a hypothetical common source and applying hierarchical clustering to identify events from the pair-based analysis. The framework is based on a Bayesian formulation introduced for infrasonic source localization and utilizes the propagation models developed for that application with modifications to improve the numerical efficiency of the analysis. Clustering analysis is completed using hierarchical analysis via weighted linkage for a non-Euclidean distance matrix defined by the negative log-joint-likelihood values. The method is evaluated using regional synthetic data with propagation distances of hundreds of kilometres in order to study the sensitivity of the method to uncertainties and errors in backazimuth and time of arrival. The method is found to be robust and stable for typical uncertainties, able to effectively distinguish noise detections within the data set from those in events, and can be made numerically efficient due to its ease of parallelization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lower soil moisture and deep soil temperatures in thermokarst features increase old soil carbon loss after 10 years of experimental permafrost warming

Almost half of the global terrestrial soil carbon (C) is stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, where air temperatures are increasing two times faster than the global average. As climate warms, permafrost thaws and soil organic matter becomes vulnerable to greater microbial decomposition. Long-term soil warming of ice-rich permafrost can result in thermokarst formation that creates variability in environmental conditions. Consequently, plant and microbial proportional contributions to ecosystem respiration may change in response to long-term soil warming. Natural abundance δ 13 C and Δ 14 C of aboveground and belowground plant material, and of young and old soil respiration were used to inform a mixing model to partition the contribution of each source to ecosystem respiration fluxes. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian approach that incorporated gross primary productivity and environmental drivers to constrain source contributions. We found that long-term experimental permafrost warming introduced a soil hydrology component that interacted with temperature to affect old soil C respiration. Old soil C loss was suppressed in plots with warmer deep soil temperatures because they tended to be wetter. When soil volumetric water content significantly decreased in 2018 relative to 2016 and 2017, the dominant respiration sources shifted from plant aboveground and young soil respiration to old soil respiration. The proportion of ecosystem respiration from old soil C accounted for up to 39% of ecosystem respiration and represented a 30-fold increase compared to the wet-year average. Our findings show that thermokarst formation may act to moderate microbial decomposition of old soil C when soil is highly saturated. However, when soil moisture decreases, a higher proportion of old soil C is vulnerable to decomposition and can become a large flux to the atmosphere. Furthermore, as permafrost systems continue to change with climate, we must understand the thresholds that may propel these systems from a C sink to a source.

permafrost↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring physics of ferroelectric domain walls via Bayesian analysis of atomically resolved STEM data

The physics of ferroelectric domain walls is explored using the Bayesian inference analysis of atomically resolved STEM data. We demonstrate that domain wall profile shapes are ultimately sensitive to the nature of the order parameter in the material, including the functional form of Ginzburg-Landau-Devonshire expansion, and numerical value of the corresponding parameters. The preexisting materials knowledge naturally folds in the Bayesian framework in the form of prior distributions, with the different order parameters forming competing (or hierarchical) models. Here, we explore the physics of the ferroelectric domain walls in BiFeO 3 using this method, and derive the posterior estimates of relevant parameters. More generally, this inference approach both allows learning materials physics from experimental data with associated uncertainty quantification, and establishing guidelines for instrumental development answering questions on what resolution and information limits are necessary for reliable observation of specific physical mechanisms of interest.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank approximation of Hessians in inverse problems, with application to ice sheet model initialization

Obtaining lightweight and accurate approximations of discretized objective functional Hessians in inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential to make both deterministic and Bayesian statistical large-scale inverse problems computationally tractable. The cubic computational complexity of dense linear algebraic tasks, such as Cholesky factorization, that provide a means to sample Gaussian distributions and determine solutions of Newton linear systems is a computational bottleneck at large-scale. These tasks can be reduced to log-linear complexity by utilizing hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank (HODLR) matrix approximations. In this work, we show that a class of Hessians that arise from inverse problems governed by PDEs are well approximated by the HODLR matrix format. In particular, we study inverse problems governed by PDEs that model the instantaneous viscous flow of ice sheets. In these problems, we seek a spatially distributed basal sliding parameter field such that the flow predicted by the ice sheet model is consistent with ice sheet surface velocity observations. Here, we demonstrate the use of HODLR Hessian approximation to efficiently sample the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution with covariance further approximated by HODLR matrix compression. Computational studies are performed which illustrate ice sheet problem regimes for which the Gauss–Newton data-misfit Hessian is more efficiently approximated by the HODLR matrix format than the low-rank (LR) format. We then demonstrate that HODLR approximations can be favorable, when compared to global LR approximations, for large-scale problems by studying the data-misfit Hessian associated with inverse problems governed by the first-order Stokes flow model on the Humboldt glacier and Greenland ice sheet.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Gaussian process-based cost-aware batch Bayesian optimization for complex materials design campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast design spaces with complex response surfaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of irradiated graphite property models under high temperatures

Graphite under high temperatures and irradiation is central to advanced reactors. We develop a Bayesian calibration framework for graphite property models that explicitly represents model-data mismatch via a Gaussian-process discrepancy. The approach propagates uncertainty from parameters, experimental noise, and model form, with a hierarchical variance structure to capture group and cross-group noise. Using two predictive models across five grades (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA, NBG-17, 2114) and four properties-irradiation-induced dimension change, creep, Young’s modulus change ratio, and coefficient of thermal expansion change ratio-we obtain average predictive-error reductions of 54%, 65%, 17%, and 17% when discrepancy is included. We illustrate engineering impact with a multiphysics model of a very-high-temperature reactor prismatic reflector brick, analyzing stresses under high fluence and temperature. Accounting for model discrepancy markedly improves predictive accuracy and provides a robust basis for reliable graphite component design in advanced reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo using machine learning models

Here, this work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to accelerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive the expression for cost reduction due to machine learning model to facilitate cost analysis of the hierarchical sampling algorithm. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference, Part I: Implementation and multi-fidelity hierarchies for the single-particle model

To plan and optimize energy storage demands that account for Li-ion battery aging dynamics, techniques need to be developed to diagnose battery internal states accurately and rapidly. Here, this study seeks to reduce the computational resources needed to determine a battery's internal states by replacing physics-based Li-ion battery models - such as the single-particle model (SPM) and the pseudo-2D (P2D) model - with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) surrogate. The surrogate model makes high-throughput techniques, such as Bayesian calibration, tractable to determine battery internal parameters from voltage responses. This manuscript is the first of a two-part series that introduces PINN surrogates of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference (i.e., state-of-health diagnostics). In this first part, a method is presented for constructing a PINN surrogate of the SPM. A multi-fidelity hierarchical training, where several neural nets are trained with multiple physics-loss fidelities is shown to significantly improve the surrogate accuracy when only training on the governing equation residuals. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/PINNSTRIPES). The techniques used to develop a PINN surrogate of the SPM are extended in Part II for the PINN surrogate for the P2D battery model, and explore the Bayesian calibration capabilities of both surrogates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

CODEX weak lensing mass catalogue and implications on the mass–richness relation

The COnstrain Dark Energy with X-ray clusters (CODEX) sample contains the largest flux limited sample of X-ray clusters at 0.35 < z < 0.65. It was selected from ROSAT data in the 10 000 square degrees of overlap with BOSS, mapping a total number of 2770 high-z galaxy clusters. We present here the full results of the CFHT CODEX programme on cluster mass measurement, including a reanalysis of CFHTLS Wide data, with 25 individual lensing-constrained cluster masses. We employ lensfit shape measurement and perform a conservative colour–space selection and weighting of background galaxies. Using the combination of shape noise and an analytic covariance for intrinsic variations of cluster profiles at fixed mass due to large-scale structure, miscentring, and variations in concentration and ellipticity, we determine the likelihood of the observed shear signal as a function of true mass for each cluster. We combine 25 individual cluster mass likelihoods in a Bayesian hierarchical scheme with the inclusion of optical and X-ray selection functions to derive constraints on the slope α, normalization β, and scatter σln λ|μ of our richness–mass scaling relation model in log-space: ${\langle {\rm In}\,\, \lambda\!\!\mid\!\!\mu\rangle = \alpha\mu + \beta,} $ with μ = ln (M 200c /M piv ), and M piv = 10 14.81 M ⊙ . We find a slope $\alpha = 0.49^{+0.20}_{-0.15}$, normalization $\exp (\beta) = 84.0^{+9.2}_{-14.8}$, and $\sigma _{\ln \lambda | \mu } = 0.17^{+0.13}_{-0.09}$ using CFHT richness estimates. In comparison to other weak lensing richness–mass relations, we find the normalization of the richness statistically agreeing with the normalization of other scaling relations from a broad redshift range (0.0 < z < 0.65) and with different cluster selection (X-ray, Sunyaev–Zeldovich, and optical).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth’s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently-developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Hubble Constant from Strongly Lensed Supernovae with Standardizable Magnifications

The dominant uncertainty in the current measurement of the Hubble constant (H 0 ) with strong gravitational lensing time delays is attributed to uncertainties in the mass profiles of the main deflector galaxies. Strongly lensed supernovae (glSNe) can provide, in addition to measurable time delays, lensing magnification constraints when knowledge about the unlensed apparent brightness of the explosion is imposed. We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework to combine a data set of SNe that are not strongly lensed and a data set of strongly lensed SNe with measured time delays. We jointly constrain (i) H 0 using the time delays as an absolute distance indicator, (ii) the lens model profiles using the magnification ratio of lensed and unlensed fluxes on the population level, and (iii) the unlensed apparent magnitude distribution of the SN population and the redshift–luminosity relation of the relative expansion history of the universe. We apply our joint inference framework on a future expected data set of glSNe and forecast that a sample of 144 glSNe of Type Ia with well-measured time series and imaging data will measure H 0 to 1.5%. We discuss strategies to mitigate systematics associated with using absolute flux measurements of glSNe to constrain the mass density profiles. Using the magnification of SN images is a promising and complementary alternative to using stellar kinematics. Future surveys, such as the Rubin and Roman observatories, will be able to discover the necessary number of glSNe, and with additional follow-up observations, this methodology will provide precise constraints on mass profiles and H 0 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization for materials discovery in high entropy alloy spaces

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful and data-efficient method for iterative materials discovery and design, particularly valuable when prior knowledge is limited, underlying functional relationships are complex or unknown, and the cost of querying the materials space is significant. Traditional BO methodologies typically utilize conventional Gaussian Processes (cGPs) to model the relationships between material inputs and properties, as well as correlations within the input space. However, cGP-BO approaches often fall short in multi-objective optimization scenarios, where they are unable to fully exploit correlations between distinct material properties. Leveraging these correlations can significantly enhance the discovery process, as information about one property can inform and improve predictions about others. Here, this study addresses this limitation by employing advanced kernel structures to capture and model multi-dimensional property correlations through multi-task (MTGPs) or deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs), thus accelerating the discovery process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MTGP-BO and DGP-BO in rapidly and robustly solving complex materials design challenges that occur within the context of complex multi-objective optimization over FCC FeCrNiCoCu high entropy alloy (HEA) spaces, where traditional cGP-BO approaches fail. Furthermore, we highlight how the differential costs associated with querying various material properties can be strategically leveraged to make the materials discovery process more cost-efficient.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗