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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Eocene-Oligocene Metamorphism, Fluid Flow and Deformation in the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range Metamorphic Core Complex

Metamorphic core complexes are ubiquitous in collapsed orogens globally and play a primary role in crustal exhumation. Here, we investigate the metamorphic history of the Ruby Mountains-East Humboldt Range metamorphic core complex, Nevada, using petrochronology to understand how magmatism, metamorphism and deformation interact to modulate crustal rheology, and the timing of exhumation within the Sevier orogenic belt. Field study, microstructural analysis, thermobarometry and laser ablation split-stream monazite, titanite and allanite petrochronology of the mylonitic footwall were integrated to elucidate the pressure-temperature-time (P-T-t) evolution. Major-, trace-element and quartz-in-garnet thermobarometry show peak metamorphism occurred at 5.5–6 kbar and 600–650°C across the study area. Monazite and titanite U-(Th)-Pb petrochronology constrain this episode of metamorphism to 88–81 Ma with the structurally deepest samples yielding dates down to ca. 71 Ma. The preservation of peak metamorphic mineral assemblages indicates these rocks remained at near-peak temperature conditions into the Cenozoic. Cenozoic metamorphism occurred during a punctuated episode contemporaneous with the Great Basin ignimbrite flare up. All samples show a distinct 39–37 Ma population of monazite, titanite and allanite dates that correlate with the emplacement of quartz diorite and gabbro intrusions throughout the footwall. Accessory phases contain zoning textures in backscattered electron images that are consistent with fluid-mediated dissolution-reprecipitation reactions. The U-(Th)-Pb analyses from these zones yield 39–27 Ma dates interpreted as the timing of fluid flow. The results of this study elucidate the integrated importance of magmatism, melting and fluid flow in driving the coupled evolution of Late Cretaceous metamorphism within the Sevier hinterland and the subsequent Cenozoic metamorphic core complex development that exhumed the middle crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spring Dust in Colorado Plateau: Transport Pathways and Interannual Variability Derived From Two Decades of MERRA‐2 Reanalysis

Spring dust storms in the U.S. Southwest significantly impact environmental and human systems, yet their climatological patterns and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using two decades of MERRA-2 reanalysis data and self-organizing map clustering, we identified four distinct dust transport pathways from surrounding and remote deserts for the top 10% of spring dust events impacting the Colorado Plateau: (a) intense southwesterly near-surface transport where eastward upward transport is blocked by topography, (b) substantial remote transport plus weaker surface emissions, (c) moderate southwesterly transport with stronger upper-level transport, and (d) rare northwesterly pattern linked to the Great Basin sources, which accounts for 38%, 14%, 37%, and 11% of total events, respectively. The frequency and intensity of these events strongly correlate with large-scale climate variability, with increased dust events during La Niña. Our results provide a robust framework for improving seasonal dust forecasts and understanding future dust dynamics under climate change.

aerosol transport↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hawthorne Nevada Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study - Data Used for Geothermal Resource Conceptual Modeling and Power Capacity Estimates

This data submission includes several data components that were used to develop a conceptual model and power capacity-estimates of two low-temperature geothermal resources that define geothermal prospect A at Hawthorne, Nevada. Data are sourced from a combination of legacy publicly-available data and more recent data acquisition conducted by the US Navy Geothermal Program Office (2008-2013) and the Great Basin Center for Geothermal Energy at the University of Nevada, Reno (2008-2010). Data sets include compiled fluid geochemistry data, down-hole temperature logs for wells in the vicinity of prospect A, 2 meter temperature survey data, temperature-spinner logs acquired in well HWAAD-2A, fracture picks from image log data acquired in wells HWAAD-2 and HWAAD-3, and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) analyses on cuttings from wells HWAAD-2A and HWAAD-3. These data have been reviewed for errors and inconsistencies, but it is possible that few errors could still remain. The resource conceptual model and power capacity estimates are included in the final report to the US Department of Energy, and are presented in a manuscript by Ayling and Hinz. A link to the manuscript published in Geothermics is linked below in this submission.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wet and dry plastic deposition data for western US National Atmospheric Deposition Program sites (2017-2019)

Raw plastic counts and calculated plastic deposition rates for 11 National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) sites in the western USA recorded from 2017-2019. Samples were collected to determine plastic deposition rates in remote locations and identify the potential sources of plastic to the atmosphere. Samples were collected using an Aerochem Metrics Wet and Dry sampler. Wet deposition refers to the material retained on a 0.45-micron filter. Dry deposition refers to the dry only deposition collected using a Dry Side Insert (DSI) (Brahney et al. 2020). Plastics are identified as either fibers or particles (includes small colored films). Wet deposition rates are recorded weekly and dry plastic deposition rates are based on monthly sampling intervals. Sites included are Grand Canyon National Park (AZ03), Joshua Tree National Park (CA67), Rocky Mountain National Park (CO98), Niwot Ridge (CO02), Ashley National Forest (UT95), East River SFA (CO10)), Craters of the Moon National Park (ID03), Great Basin National Park (NV05), Canyonlands National Park (UT09), Bryce Canyon Nationa Park (UT99), and Wind River Range (WY06). Data collection is being published in collaboration with the Department of Energy's research project, "Constraining physical understanding of aerosol loading, biogeochemistry, and snowmelt hydrology from hillslope to watershed scale in the East River Scientific Focus Areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

GeoThermalCloud: Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration

Geothermal is a renewable energy source that can provide reliable and flexible electricity generation for the world. In the past decade, the U.S. Geological Survey's resource assessments, Play Fairway Analyses (PFA), and GeoVision report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office provided insights on enormous untapped potential for geothermal energy to contribute to the U.S. domestic energy needs. The past studies identified that geothermal resources without surface expression (e.g., blind/hidden hydrothermal systems) comprise a huge potential. These blind systems can significantly increase power generation. But a primary challenge is locating and quantifying these hidden resources, which do not have any thermal manifestations on the surface. PFA has successfully identified some blind systems in the western USA (e.g., specific locations in the Great Basin region within Nevada). However, a comprehensive search for these blind systems can be time-consuming, expensive, and resource-intensive with a low probability of success. Accelerated discovery of these blind resources is needed with growing energy needs and higher chances of exploration success. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have shown promise in shortening the timeline for this discovery. This paper presents a novel ML-based methodology for geothermal exploration towards PFA applications. Our methodology is provided through our open-source ML framework called GeoThermalCloud \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl}. GeoThermalCloud uses a series of unsupervised, supervised, and physics-informed ML methods available in SmartTensors AI platform \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors}. Here, the presented analyses are performed using our unsupervised ML algorithm called NMF$k$, which is available in the SmartTensors AI platform. Our ML algorithm facilitates the discovery of new phenomena, hidden patterns, and mechanisms that helps us to make informed decisions. Moreover, the GeoThermalCloud enhances the collected PFA data and discovers signatures representative of geothermal resources. Through GeoThermalCloud, we were able to identify hidden patterns in the geothermal field data needed for the efficient discovery of blind systems. Crucial geothermal signatures often overlooked in traditional PFA are extracted using GeoThermalCloud and analyzed by the subject matter experts to provide ML-enhanced PFA, which is informative for efficient exploration. We applied our ML methodology on various open-source geothermal datasets within the U.S. (some of these are collected by past PFA work), and the results provide valuable insights on resource types within those explored regions. This ML-enhanced workflow makes GeoThermalCloud attractive for the geothermal community to improve existing datasets and extract valuable information often unnoticed during geothermal exploration.

machine learning (ML), geothermal energy↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xRM NEON Rocky Mountain National Park, CASTNET (RMNP)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xRM NEON Rocky Mountain National Park, CASTNET (RMNP). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xRM NEON Rocky Mountain National Park, CASTNET (RMNP) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - NEON's Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) tower stands 12 km south of Estes Park, Colorado, representing a growing mosaic of urban and exurban areas. While the property is owned by RMNP, it is not contiguous with the core park boundaries. As a mid-elevation site (2,750 m) on the east side of the Continental Divide, the site is aptly situated to investigate the chemical climate (i.e., pollution) generated along the Front Range as well as dust deposition produced and transported from the Great Basin to higher elevations. This is a particularly salient issue given recent estimates which project that an additional two million residents will inhabit the Front Range in twenty years.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗
DOE OSTI2022

200-IA-1 Operable Unit Ecological Risk Screen

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document the assumptions, inputs, methodology, equations, and results of a screening level ecological risk assessment (SLERA) conducted for eight of 12 representative waste sites within the newly formed 200 IA-1 Operable Unit (OU); the remaining four waste sites lacked soil data within the shallow vadose zone and were not further evaluated. The SLERA was conducted to evaluate ecological receptor exposure and potential risk using soil data for radionuclides and nonradionuclides occurring within the shallow vadose zone (0 to 15 ft) soil of the OU. The representative Hanford ecological receptors evaluated are: plants, soil invertebrates, California quail (Callipepla californica), Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta), Killdeer (Charadrius vociferus), Red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis), Great Basin pocket mouse (Perognathus parvus), Deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus), Grasshopper mouse (Onychomys leucogaster), and badger (Taxidea taxus). During the SLERA, detected soil sample results from the shallow vadose zone were used to calculate Hazard Quotients (HQs) for nonradionuclides and Sum of Fractions (SOF) for radionuclides. The results of this SLERA support the preparation of DOE/RL-2020-51, 200-IA-1 Operable Unit Focused Feasibility Study.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geothermal Fault Zone and Fluid Imaging through Joint Airborne ZTEM and Ground MT Data Inversion Analysis

This project has aimed to achieve detailed electrical resistivity resolution at geothermal reservoir scales by combining airborne natural electromagnetic (EM) field surveying (ZTEM) with ground magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to approximate an airborne MT geophysical method. MT alone is relatively expensive and may have permitting challenges in sensitive areas. Airborne ZTEM field data contains only the magnetic field, requires a background assumption, and has been limited to relatively high frequencies, thus suffering uniqueness problems. Based on proto-type 2D simulations, ZTEM ambiguities may be reduced through formal incorporation with possibly sparse ground MT soundings, which we pursued in full 3D for this project. The methodology was tested at the high-temperature Roosevelt Hot Springs geothermal system, Utah, which was considered advantageous given the near total exposure of crystalline reservoir rocks across the project area. ZTEM and ground MT survey data were acquired in 2017, subcontracted to outside parties with which we have worked in the past. These included 80 remote-referenced tensor MT soundings over the Mineral Mountains and adjacent Roosevelt Hot Spring producing geothermal system. These MT stations abut later coverage of a similar number of MT stations taken for the Utah FORGE project providing excellent total data aperture to re-solve structure beneath both project areas better than either set alone. The airborne ZTEM survey covered 704 line kilometers in E-W flight lines with a 250 m line spacing. Although this survey was timed during a maintenance-related shutdown of power production at the Roosevelt Hot Springs, other noise sources difficult to identify but including two high-voltage state-scale transmission lines compromised the ZTEM survey badly leading to unusable responses. Thus, with DOE management concurrence, the project proceeded to emphasize inversion and interpretation of the joint SubTER-FORGE MT data sets with regard to the Roosevelt Hot Springs reservoir recharge and to deep heat sources for both it and the Utah FORGE EGS project area. We also investigated the joint ZTEM-MT sampling concept with data sets from the Eleven Mile Canyon prospect area donated by the U.S. Navy (A. Sabin, PoC). Inversion of the SubTER-FORGE MT data using the HexMT 3D finite element algorithm reveals a large, low-resistivity anomaly extending sub-vertically through the depth range of the crust beneath the western Mineral Mountains. The steep conductive zone connects in the lower crust to a more tabular conductor characteristic of much of the Great Basin that generally is ascribed to current mafic magmatic underplating, hybridization and fluid release. The location of the resolved anomaly relative to the recent (0.5-0.8 Ma) eruptive centers of the Mineral Mountains implicates it as remnants of the magma body which fed these centers. This structure appears to be currently feeding heat and fluids upward into the Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system, as well as heat laterally to the FORGE project area. Separate and joint inversion models were carried out for the donated Eleven Mile Canyon MT-ZTEM data set to demonstrate concept. ZTEM only inversion showed two main alteration zones in the western portion of the project area known from geological mapping. Joint inversion including an E-W profile of MT soundings sharpened these features considerably. It also resolved in much greater detail the graben related normal faulting structure of the central project area which lies at depths exceeding the sensitivity of ZTEM alone. The sparse number of MT da-ta relative to the ZTEM required upweighting the former by a factor of several, but an exact procedure awaits future research. Our final impression is that sparse MT data can improve resolution of the subsurface over that of ZTEM alone. However, well sampled MT data are to be preferred and offer the simplicity of interpreting just one data type, and possess the superior resolution capability coming with the electric field everywhere, and from their high bandwidth.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

FlowDash Geothermal Energy Enhancer: Where is Next Geothermal Resource? Machine Learning + Multiple Datasets => Geothermal Exploration Indication?

This is the presentation delivered at the 2025 GEODE Datathon competition. GEODE is a consortium of experts that addresses technology and knowledge gaps in geothermal energy, leveraging technology and best practices from the oil and gas industry. NETL team was awarded the 1st place in the engineering track. 2025 GEODE Datathon had a total of 42 teams from top universities and several major industrial companies. This awarded work is founded on a robust idea and innovative approach that uses machine learning coupled to multiple datasets to visualize geothermal “sweet” spots/indications in Great Basin based on the data provided from the GEODE Datathon. The use case also leveraged other datasets and demonstrated insightful and valuable indications for geothermal exploration.

Geothermal energy, Machine learning, Multiple Data↗
NASA NTRS1975

Identification and interpretation of tectonic features from ERTS-1 imagery: Southwestern North America and the Red Sea area

The author has identified the following significant results. The ERTS-1 imagery was utilized to study major fault and tectonic lines and their intersections in southwestern North America. A system of transverse shear faults was recognized in the California Coast Ranges, the Sierra Nevada, the Great Basin, and Mexico. They are interpreted as expressions of a major left-lateral shear which predated the San Andreas system, the opening of the Gulf of California and Basin and Range rift development. Tectonic models for Basin and Range, Coast Ranges, and Texas-Parras shears were developed. Geological structures and Precambrian metamorphic trend lines of schistosity were studied across the Red Sea rift.

Abdel-Gawad, M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Leveling circuits and crustal movements

An investigation of further possible vertical crustal movements in the Western United States made with circuit microclosure analysis is presented. The San Andreas fault in Cal., the Nevada seismic zone in Nev., and the Sierra Nevada in Calif. were studied based on supposition that in areas undergoing crustal movement the misclosure for a particular circuit should have the smallest value when the circuit is formed from the most temporarily homogeneous survey data; it should have larger, predictable values when the circuit is closed with surveys conducted at other times. Leveling surveys along the San Andreas fault and the Nevada seismic zone are discussed, noting the possibility of regional tilting in the Great Basin between 1934 and 1955, and of elevation changes in the Northern Nevada Range using results of leveling surveys between Roseville, Cal. and Reno, Nev.

Chi, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Discriminating semiarid vegetation using airborne imaging spectrometer data - A preliminary assessment

A preliminary assessment was made of Airborne Imaging Spectrometer (AIS) data for discriminating and characterizing vegetation in a semiarid environment. May and October AIS data sets were acquired over a large alluvial fan in eastern California, on which were found Great Basin desert shrub communities. Maximum likelihood classification of a principal components representation of the May AIS data enabled discrimination of subtle spatial detail in images relating to vegetation and soil characteristics. The spatial patterns in the May AIS classification were, however, too detailed for complete interpretation with existing ground data. A similar analysis of the October AIS data yielded poor results. Comparison of AIS results with a similar analysis of May Landsat Thematic Mapper data showed that the May AIS data contained approximately three to four times as much spectrally coherent information. When only two shortwave infrared TM bands were used, results were similar to those from AIS data acquired in October.

Thomas, Randall W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Comparison of GPS surveys with historical triangulation surveys in the southern California borderland

Global plate models predict about 56 mm/yr of motion between the North American and Pacific plates along the plate boundary in southern California, while geodetic and Holocene geological data suggest only 34 mm/yr on the San Andreas fault. Deformation in the Great Basin does not explain this discrepancy, and it has been suggested that faulting in the offshore of southern California could account for some of the discrepancy. Evidence of deformation in the offshore region of southern California is most abundant in the Santa Barbara Channel. Geological investigations of folding and faulting in this region, as well as earthquake investigations, indicate north-south shortening across the channel on the order of 10 to 20 mm/yr. The most rapid rates occur to the east of the channel in the Ventura Basin. South of the Santa Barbara Channel, though, evidence for deformation is limited to seismicity studies which are sparse. Seismic events are abundant in this area, but their implication for the amount of deformation in the offshore is unclear. GPS measurements made between June 1986 and May 1988 have been used to obtain vector positions for several stations at which historical first order triangulation observations were performed between the late 1800's and the mid 1900's between the coast of southern California and the nearby offshore islands. By comparing the spheroidal angles obtained from the GPS positions with the the previously observed triangulation data, shear strain rates can be calculated for the region using Frank's method. These results seem to suggest that shear strain deformation occurs in the offshore of southern California as a result of north to north-west shortening. That deformation is most active in the Santa Barbara Channel region and least active between Catalina and San Nicholas islands. Just how much of the missing plate motion can be accounted for by this deformation is not known at this time and will have to await further analysis.

Webb, Frank H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Final report

In eastern Nevada and western Utah is an extensive terrane that has experienced a complex tectonic history of Mesozoic deformation and superposed Tertiary extension. The Mesozoic tectonic history of this area has been the subject of controversy for the past twenty or more years. The debate has centered on whether major Mesozoic geologic structures were due to compressional or extensional tectonic regimes. The goal of our research was to decipher the deformational history of the area by combining detailed geologic mapping, remote sensing data analysis, and U-Pb and K-Ar geochronology. This study area includes the Dolly Varden Mountains and adjacent Currie Hills, located in the semi-arid environment of the northeastern Great Basin in Nevada. Vegetation cover in the Dolly Varden Mountains typically ranges from about 10 percent to 50 percent, with some places along drainages and on high, north-facing slopes where vegetation cover approaches 100 percent. Sagebrush is found at less vegetated lower elevations, whereas pinon pine and juniper are prevalent above 2,000 meters. A variety of geologic materials is exposed in the study area. A sequence of Late Paleozoic and Triassic sedimentary rocks includes limestone, dolomite, chert, sandstone, siltstone and shale. A two-phase granitic stock, called the Melrose, intruded these rocks, resulting in metamorphism along the intrusive contact. Tertiary volcanic rocks cover most of the eastern part of the Dolly Varden Mountains and low-lying areas in the Currie Hills.

Zamudio, Joe↗
NASA NTRS1993

Rotation of stress and blocks in the Lake Mead, Nevada, Fault System

The combined effects of stress field rotation and material rotation were found in the Lake Mead, Nevada Fault System (LMFS). Fault inversion results imply an apparent 60 deg clockwise (CW) rotation of the stress field since mid-Miocene time. In contrast, structural data from the Great Basin suggest only a 30 deg CW stress field rotation. By incorporating paleomagnetic declination anomalies, it is inferred that slip on faults caused a local 30 deg counterclockwise rotation of blocks and faults in the Lake Mead area, so that the inferred 60 deg CW rotation of the stress field in the LMFS is actually only 30 deg.

Ron, Hagai↗
NASA NTRS1997

Multitemporal and Multiscaled Fractal Analysis of Landsat Satellite Data Using the Image Characterization and Modeling System (ICAMS)

The Image Characterization And Modeling System (ICAMS) is a public domain software package that is designed to provide scientists with innovative spatial analytical tools to visualize, measure, and characterize landscape patterns so that environmental conditions or processes can be assessed and monitored more effectively. In this study ICAMS has been used to evaluate how changes in fractal dimension, as a landscape characterization index, and resolution, are related to differences in Landsat images collected at different dates for the same area. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data obtained in May and August 1993 over a portion of the Great Basin Desert in eastern Nevada were used for analysis. These data represent contrasting periods of peak "green-up" and "dry-down" for the study area. The TM data sets were converted into Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images to expedite analysis of differences in fractal dimension between the two dates. These NDVI images were also resampled to resolutions of 60, 120, 240, 480, and 960 meters from the original 30 meter pixel size, to permit an assessment of how fractal dimension varies with spatial resolution. Tests of fractal dimension for two dates at various pixel resolutions show that the D values in the August image become increasingly more complex as pixel size increases to 480 meters. The D values in the May image show an even more complex relationship to pixel size than that expressed in the August image. Fractal dimension for a difference image computed for the May and August dates increase with pixel size up to a resolution of 120 meters, and then decline with increasing pixel size. This means that the greatest complexity in the difference images occur around a resolution of 120 meters, which is analogous to the operational domain of changes in vegetation and snow cover that constitute differences between the two dates.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Dissecting global diversity patterns: examples from the Ordovician Radiation

Although the history of life has been characterized by intermittent episodes of radiation that can be recognized in global compilations of biodiversity, it does not necessarily follow that these episodes are caused by processes that occurred uniformly around the world. Major diversity increases could be generated by the cumulative effects of different mechanisms operating simultaneously at several geographic or environmental scales. The purpose of this review is to describe ongoing research on the manifestations, at several scales, of the Ordovician Radiation, which was among the most extensive intervals of diversification in the history of life. Through much of the period, diversity was concentrated most heavily near regions of active mountain building and volcanism; differences in diversity patterns from continent to continent, and among regions within continents, reflect this overprint. While this suggests a linkage of the Radiation and tectonic activity, this is by no means the only mediating agent. Outcrop-based research in North America has demonstrated that tectonic activity was detrimental to some biotic elements, in contrast to its effects on other organisms. Moreover, in the Great Basin of North America where the local stratigraphic record is of particularly high quality, biotic transitions characteristic of the period occurred far more rapidly than observed in global compilations of diversity, suggesting that the global rate of transition may represent the aggregate sum of transitions that occurred abruptly, but at different times, around the world. Finally, it has been demonstrated that, in concert with an increase in average age, the environmental and geographic ranges of Ordovician genera both increased significantly through the period, indicating a role for intrinsic factors in producing Ordovician biotic patterns.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2011

30 WS North Base Wind Study

The 30 Weather Squadron (30 WS) is concerned about strong winds observed at their northern towers without advance warning. They state that terrain influences along the extreme northern fringes of Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) make it difficult for forecasters to issue timely and accurate high wind warnings for northeasterly wind events. These events tend to occur during the winter or early spring when they are under the influence of the Great Basin high pressure weather regime. The Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) have seen these rapid wind increases in the current northern Towers 60, 70 and 71 in excess of their 35 kt operational warning threshold. For this task, the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze data from days when these towers reported winds in excess of 35 kt and determine if there were any precursors in the observations that would allow the LWOs to better forecast and warn their operational customers for these wind events. The 30 WS provided wind tower data for the cool season (October - March) from the period January 2004-March 20 IO. The AMU decoded and evaluated the wind tower data for 66 days identified by the 30 WS as having high-wind events. Out of the 66 event days, only 30 had wind speed observations of > or =35 kt from at least one of the three northern towers. The AMU analyzed surface and upper air charts to determine the synoptic conditions for each event day along with tower peak wind speed and direction time series and wind rose charts for all 30 event days. The analysis revealed a trend on all event days in which the tower winds shifted to the northeast for a period of time before the first recorded > or =35 kt wind speed. The time periods for the 30 event days ranged from 20 minutes to several hours, with a median value of 110 minutes. This trend, if monitored, could give the 30 WS forecasters a precursor to assist in issuing an operational warning before a high wind event occurs. The AMU recommends developing a high-wind alert capability for VAFB using a local mesoscale model to forecast these wind events. The model should incorporate all of the VAFB local data sets and have a forecast capability of between 2 to 24 hours. Such a model would allow the meteorologists at VAFB to alert the operational customers of high wind events in a timely manner so protective action could be taken.

Wheeler, Mark↗