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Results for “global sensitivity analysis”

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At least 109 records · Page 6

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DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of reactive burn and Jones-Wilkins-Lee parameters for simulations of a detonation-driven flow experiment with uncertainty quantification

Here, uncertainties in the explosive-specific parameters of the Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL) equation of state (EOS) are carefully considered in hydrodynamic simulations of an explosive experiment to minimize the error in the flow prediction. Experimental data of the leading shock position in the transverse direction over time serves as the prediction metric for quantifying simulation prediction error. The uncertainty quantification technique, global sensitivity analysis, is utilized to determine the JWL parameters to which the transverse shock propagation is most sensitive. A polynomial response surface (PRS) is constructed in the space of the most influential JWL parameters, and the point of minimum error between the experimental data and the PRS yields calibrated JWL parameters for the experimental flow. The simulation results following the parameter calibration show good agreement with the experimental data. It was found that two significant parameters, the heat release per unit mass of reactant Q and JWL model exponent R 1 are strongly related, which makes it difficult to identify accurate values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Physics of Atomic Nuclei from First Principles

Atomic nuclei exhibit multiple energy scales ranging from hundreds of MeV in binding energies to fractions of an MeV for low-lying collective excitations. As the limits of nuclear binding are approached near the neutron and proton drip lines, traditional shell structure starts to melt with an onset of deformation and an emergence of coexisting shapes. It is a long-standing challenge to describe this multiscale physics starting from nuclear forces with roots in quantum chromodynamics. Here, we achieve this within a unified and nonperturbative quantum many-body framework that captures both short- and long-range correlations starting from modern nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. The short-range (dynamic) correlations which account for the bulk of the binding energy are included within a symmetry-breaking framework, while long-range (static) correlations (and fine details about the collective structure) are included by employing symmetry projection techniques. Our calculations accurately reproduce—within theoretical error bars—available experimental data for low-lying collective states and the electromagnetic quadrupole transitions in 20−30 Ne. In addition, we reveal coexisting spherical and deformed shapes in 30 Ne, which indicates the breakdown of the magic neutron number 𝑁 = 20 as the key nucleus 28 O is approached, and we predict that the drip line nuclei 32,34 Ne are strongly deformed and collective. By developing reduced-order models for symmetry-projected states, we perform a global sensitivity analysis and find that the subleading singlet 𝑆-wave contact and a pion-nucleon coupling strongly impact nuclear deformation in chiral effective field theory. The techniques developed in this work clarify how microscopic nuclear forces generate the multiscale physics of nuclei spanning collective phenomena as well as short-range correlations and allow one to capture emergent and dynamical phenomena in finite fermion systems such as atom clusters, molecules, and atomic nuclei.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.

Gomes, Dylan G. E. (ORCID:0000000226423728)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Process Model and Open-Source Process Simulator for Microalgae-Based Tertiary Phosphorus Recovery

Microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment has the potential to meet stringent effluent phosphorus limits, with the added benefit of producing a marketable feedstock. However, the lack of validated mechanistic models and their implementation in process simulators have limited the adoption of this technology. In this study, an updated lumped pathway metabolic model (Phototrophic-Mixotrophic Process Model, PM 2 ), including both photoautotrophic and heterotrophic metabolisms of microalgae, was developed to predict effluent phosphorus concentration and biomass yield in response to dynamic influent and varying environmental conditions. The model was implemented in QSDsan – an open-source, Python-based design and simulation platform – for robust simulation under uncertainty. A global sensitivity analysis was performed to prioritize model parameters for calibration. The model was then calibrated and validated using batch experimental data and 45 days of continuous online monitoring data from a full-scale (568 m 3 ·d -1 ) microalgae-based tertiary wastewater treatment plant (EcoRecover process). In particular, along with dynamic influent composition, temperature and light intensity data with diel variation were provided as model inputs to reflect the microalgal behavior under day-night cycling. Overall, the QSDsan-based microalgae process simulator was able to predict effluent phosphorus within 0.02–0.04 mg-P·L -1 , while also capturing the general trends of state variables according to nutrient availability.

Lumped pathway metabolic model↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-Informed Bayesian Inference for Home PLC Network Models with Unknown Parameters

Bayesian inference is used to calibrate a bottom-up home PLC network model with unknown loads and wires at frequencies up to 30 MHz. A network topology with over 50 parameters is calibrated using global sensitivity analysis and transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). The sensitivity-informed Bayesian inference computes Sobol indices for each network parameter and applies TMCMC to calibrate the most sensitive parameters for a given network topology. A greedy random search with TMCMC is used to refine the discrete random variables of the network. This results in a model that can accurately compute the transfer function despite noisy training data and a high dimensional parameter space. The model is able to infer some parameters of the network used to produce the training data, and accurately computes the transfer function under extrapolative scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Within-Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Case Study in Ferrets

The pre-clinical development of antiviral agents involves experimental trials in animals and ferrets as an animal model for the study of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we used mathematical models and experimental data to characterize the within-host infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in ferrets. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis of model parameters impacting the characteristics of the viral infection. We provide estimates of the viral dynamic parameters in ferrets, such as the infection rate, the virus production rate, the infectious virus proportion, the infected cell death rate, the virus clearance rate, as well as other related characteristics, including the basic reproduction number, pre-peak infectious viral growth rate, post-peak infectious viral decay rate, pre-peak infectious viral doubling time, post-peak infectious virus half-life, and the target cell loss in the respiratory tract. These parameters and indices are not significantly different between animals infected with viral strains isolated from the environment and isolated from human hosts, indicating a potential for transmission from fomites. While the infection period in ferrets is relatively short, the similarity observed between our results and previous results in humans supports that ferrets can be an appropriate animal model for SARS-CoV-2 dynamics-related studies, and our estimates provide helpful information for such studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global Framework for Emulation of Nuclear Calculations

We introduce a hierarchical framework that combines ab initio many-body calculations with a Bayesian neural network, developing emulators capable of accurately predicting nuclear properties across isotopic chains simultaneously and being applicable to different regions of the nuclear chart. We benchmark our developments using the oxygen isotopic chain, achieving accurate results for ground-state energies and nuclear charge radii, while providing robust uncertainty quantification. Our framework enables global sensitivity analysis of nuclear binding energies and charge radii with respect to the low-energy constants that describe the nuclear force.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Effect of Nondeterministic Parameters on Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Modeling

Engineering applications for aircraft noise prediction contain models for physical phenomenon that enable solutions to be computed quickly. These models contain parameters that have an uncertainty not accounted for in the solution. To include uncertainty in the solution, nondeterministic computational methods are applied. Using prediction models for supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise, fixed model parameters are replaced by probability distributions to illustrate one of these methods. The results show the impact of using nondeterministic parameters both on estimating the model output uncertainty and on the model spectral level prediction. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis is used to determine the influence of the model parameters on the output, and to identify the parameters with the least influence on model output.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation and Sensitivity Analyses of Arc-Jet Performance of Woven Thermal Protection Entry Systems

A material response model is developed for the determination of erosion rates and thermal response of woven materials to enable accurate thermal protection material sizing and future missions to Venus and giant planets. The stagnation-point thermal response is further evaluated using a Monte Carlo global sensitivity analysis to determine the interactions between key parameters in the material surface energy balance, such as, convective blowing correction parameter and weave material properties including isotropic and orthotropic thermal conductivites. The time-accurate material response for the dual layer weave erosion and surface temperatures show excellent agreement with stagnation flat face arc-jet tests involving time-varying aeroheating-cooling cycles. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis technique was used to address challenges in thermal protection sizing for the Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT) system, a low ballistic coefficient hypersonic decelerator. The results represent new correlations for such weaves involving Carbon-air oxidation equilibrium chemistry. Through the multi-variate regression analyses and uncertainty rankings performed, only three properties were found to contribute to the transient thermal response of the gore, with emissivity contributing to nearly 95% of the total output uncertainty.

Pratibha Raghunandan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation and Sensitivity Analyses of Arc-Jet Performance of Woven Thermal Protection Entry Systems

Pratibha Raghunandan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Classical Theories of Dendritic Growth Kinetics Applied to Nickel-Based Alloys

The solidification velocity in a model nickel-alloy single crystal during laser spot melting was recently characterized using synchrotron X-ray imaging. The measured solidification velocity was found to exceed the absolute stability threshold predicted by the Kurz-Giovanola-Trivedi (KGT) model. The discrepancies between the model and experiments motivate the further assessment of accurate material properties. This work quantifies the impact material property uncertainty has on model predictions of the absolute stability threshold velocities. Properties from the literature are reviewed and compared to those calculated using computational thermodynamics to provide uncertainty estimates on input properties to the KGT model. Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of each uncertain input property on the predicted threshold velocity. This work supports the understanding of the nickel-alloy solidification during powder bed fusion additive manufacturing and identifies the solidification material properties that are the most important to assess from first-principles computations and experiments.

Computational thermodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1996

GLSENS: A Generalized Extension of LSENS Including Global Reactions and Added Sensitivity Analysis for the Perfectly Stirred Reactor

A generalized version of the NASA Lewis general kinetics code, LSENS, is described. The new code allows the use of global reactions as well as molecular processes in a chemical mechanism. The code also incorporates the capability of performing sensitivity analysis calculations for a perfectly stirred reactor rapidly and conveniently at the same time that the main kinetics calculations are being done. The GLSENS code has been extensively tested and has been found to be accurate and efficient. Nine example problems are presented and complete user instructions are given for the new capabilities. This report is to be used in conjunction with the documentation for the original LSENS code.

Bittker, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Order Models Generation for HTGRs Pebble Shuffling Procedure Optimization Studies

This report provides an initial study for producing reduced-order models (ROMs) of pebble-bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR) models for the purposes of design optimization. As an initial study, this work is meant to be exploratory---identifying useful workflows and methods for ROM generation---and not meant to be a catch-all analysis of HTGR ROM generation and usage for optimization. This report summarizes three tasks performed in Fiscal Year 2022: 1) the creation of HTGR model, 2) the sensitivity analysis of model design parameters, and 3) an introduction to ROM generation techniques. The representative HTGR model created in this work is a multiphysics equilibrium-core using the BlueCRAB (comprehensive reactor analysis bundle) reactor analysis application, coupling four physical phenomena: neutronics, streamline depletion, porous flow thermal hydraulics, and pebble heat conduction. Part of the model creation was identifying some design parameters and quantities of interest that are relevant in an optimization analysis and adjustable in the model. The sensitivity analysis utilized a polynomial chaos expansion methodology to compute global sensitivity metrics. This analysis showed that thermal hydraulics parameters and quantities of interest had a relatively small impact on simulation results. Finally, the ROM generation work involved exploring three different ROM methodologies: polynomial regression, a Gaussian process, and artificial neural networks. Using a cross-validation technique to characterize ROM performance, the Gaussian process and single-layer artificial neural networks showed the most promising results. Overall, this study was insightful and the lessons learned will be invaluable for the eventual development of an HTGR design optimization workflow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1983

Textural edge detection and sensitivity analysis

An optimum (global) textural edge detection operator based on statistical models for texture was developed. Also the effects of the imaging process on the textural patterns of a scene as it appears in the image were analyzed.

Shanmugan, K. S.↗