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DOE OSTI2024

Advancing Geothermal Research: Fiscal Year 2024 Accomplishments Report

Geothermal resources have delivered renewable electricity for more than 100 years, and renewable heat for far longer, but recent research and advancements have shown that geothermal is more than a 24/7 clean energy source. With the ability to also provide cooling and storage - plus the potential to access critical minerals, capture and sequester carbon, produce green hydrogen, and more - geothermal technologies and resources are emerging as key solutions to the climate crisis. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) broadened its research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) portfolio and partnerships with exciting innovations such as next-generation geothermal technologies for power, geothermal energy networks for heating and cooling, subsurface thermal energy storage, well repurposing, and more. In support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office's (GTO) mission to increase geothermal energy deployment through research, development, and demonstration of innovative technologies that enhance exploration and production, NREL led impactful research in geothermal technologies and resources, market acceleration, and grid integration while also demonstrating leadership in the sector and increasing stakeholder engagement and outreach efforts.

annual report↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shallow Geothermal Potential of the Snake River Plain

The Snake River Plain (SRP) terrestrial heat flow and subsurface thermal regime are not well understood but are important for assessing the local geothermal resource potential, both for conventional and for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) development in the region. Resource evaluation for the SRP is complicated by the disparate data density, along with the known lateral advection of heat in the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer and vertical heat transport by fluids in the bounding faults, primarily in the southwestern section. Fortunately, recent studies, e.g., the Snake River Plain Play Fairway Analysis, the Idaho FORGE site, and site-specific investigations, which included drilling within the Camas Prairie and on the Mountain Home Air Force Base, near Twin Falls, and in the Eastern Snake River Plain as part of the HOTSPOT Project, add both additional drilling and geophysical data. The SMU Geothermal Laboratory has conducted detailed studies of SRP tectonics and heat flow since the 1970's and used this knowledge as part of the EGS geothermal potential estimation for the conterminous United States in 2006 and again in 2011, calculating geothermal potential from 3.5 km to 10 km depth. Recent temperature modeling refined the calculation methodology to estimate shallow (1 km to 4 km) resource potential using an improved thermal conductivity model and incorporation of shallow groundwater flow. By incorporating the new SRP geology, geophysics, and 206 thermal data sites into the SMU thermal modeling methodology, this project updates the resource estimate for the SRP, and generates new temperature-at-depth maps for the shallow subsurface (1 km to 4 km). The project results highlight the EGS potential resource areas (=150°C) and areas with more exploration risks based on minimal and/or low-quality data. The newest temperature modeling results suggest EGS potential is near five times greater in the SRP than previously estimated.

EGS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nontechnical Barriers to Geothermal Development

Geothermal energy presents a significant opportunity for the United States (US). The US has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal (i.e., hydrothermal) potential. Despite this, the development of geothermal power plants has lagged other renewable resources. Though some of the gaps stem from technical barriers numerous non-technical barriers are preventing geothermal energy from reaching its full potential. The gaps include a need to reduce the cost impacts of seismic risk, environmental risk, exploration, drilling and permitting cost risk, and reduced summer capacity on plant profitability. This report identifies pathways to overcome these barriers. We find that geothermal energy could increase its market presence by acting as a complement to lower cost renewables, providing flexible or baseload power in low carbon scenarios. We also outline several contractual and operational strategies (including the use of hybrid systems) that plant operators can pursue to improve the value of their resource, such as multi part remuneration mechanisms that guarantee revenue (e.g., availability payments or a Contract for Differences approach) or resource risk hedging approaches (e.g., shaped market products and portfolio resource approaches).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mapping potentials and bridging regional gaps of renewable resources in China

Reasonable and effective use of renewable resources can reduce dependence on traditional fossil-based energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This study mapped the spatial potentials of renewable resources (i.e., solar radiation, precipitation, wind, and geothermal resources) in China. The results showed that China's most abundant renewable resources are located in the southwestern regions, which are significantly different from the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic development. Four southwestern provinces (Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan) make up only 7% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 30% of the national land area but possess 58% of the renewable resources. Furthermore, we found a weak to moderate degree of negative correlation between the emergy density of renewable resources and GDP per capita on the administrative levels of the prefecture-level cities for the whole country and in its eastern, central, and western regions. This means that the socioeconomically underdeveloped Midwest has more abundant renewable resources. A distributed energy-economic system may help to bridge the regional gaps of renewable sources in China. These findings can support policy decisions for the better development and use of renewable resources in China.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pathways to Overcome Geothermal Deployment Barriers

Geothermal resources represent a vast domestic energy supply that can provide a fexible and reliable source of electricity as well as contribute to clean energy goals. In the United States, geothermal exploration and development are subject to numerous permits, authorizations, and other regulatory requirements at the federal, state, and local level. These are necessary to address potential environmental and resource impacts at geothermal project sites, but may act as barriers to geothermal deployment, slowing timelines and raising costs. The 2022 NREL report, Non-Technical Barriers to Geothermal Development in California and Nevada, presents fndings of a study on non-technical barriers that may infuence geothermal project development.

geothermal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Signatures of Geothermal Exploration Data with Machine Learning Techniques: An Application to the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis

We are introducing machine learning methods to the play fairway analysis to generate geothermal potential maps to support the evaluation of geothermal resource potential and the exploration for undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Nevada Great Basin region. Our project aims to identify new ways to combine the play fairway data and empirically organize relationships between feature weights and labels in an improved workflow. As a means of doing this, we introduce machine learning methods to evaluate the influence of certain geological and geophysical features/feature sets in predicting geothermal favorability. This report highlights promising approaches based on supervised and unsupervised learning methods. First, we demonstrate a filter method applied to supervised classification modeling. The supervised filter method is based on permutation analysis to evaluate every possible feature combination/drop out scenario and rank feature influence based on the performance variance of supervised classification models. Additionally, we present an unsupervised factor analysis based on principal component analysis coupled with a semi-supervised kmeans clustering algorithm. This analysis allows us to identify the optimal number of groups/clusters for training sites and structural settings to identify feature patterns including correlation, variance, and latent and dominant feature relationships. The results from these methods offer a promising avenue for identifying favorable sources of predictive information to identify the locations of blind geothermal systems and furthering our understanding of complex geothermal feature and label relationships in the Great Basin region and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Energy and Resilience in Arctic Countries

The eight Arctic countries have diverse energy systems but can be split into two distinct groups based on energy characteristics. The first group includes countries which are heavily gridconnected (Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland); the second group includes countries with some grids as well as an abundance of remote microgrids, particularly in their more northern regions (Canada, Russia, the United States [Alaska], and Greenland). The primary energy source for both heat and power in remote communities is almost exclusively diesel. Geothermal energy is currently used in all eight Arctic countries, providing heat and sometimes electricity at utility scales and at the microgrid scale. However, the availability of geothermal resources is poorly defined in Arctic countries. We reframe geothermal heat and power as integrated energy systems, asking the question: are integrated geothermal energy systems - where available and economic - resilient solutions for communities in Arctic countries? Resilience attributes of integrated geothermal energy systems are identified, with a focus on microgrids and small-scale applications.

arctic energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead-observed temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260degreesF (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260 degrees F (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid geothermal-wind integration in the US energy grid

Here, we combine US wind generation—a cheap yet intermittent source of electricity—with the latest geothermal resource estimates to understand the technoeconomic possibilities of pairing enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs) with existing wind farms to develop a hybrid energy system. Using observed generation data from 583 wind farms, generation gaps are quantified and geographically paired with the latest EGS estimates. Results demonstrate that EGS potential within a 1 km 2 footprint can supplement wind generation at 56% of onshore wind farms. Each wind farm can be supplemented by EGSs when 10% of its surface-occupying footprint is available. The cost of EGSs at wind farms is lowest in the western US and southern Texas border and highest in the central US. While further experiments are warranted, a wind + EGS hybrid system offers an opportunity to increase power output from the same land footprint while maximizing the use of existing electrical infrastructure.

EGS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This, in turn, is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study, we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in enhanced geothermal system binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data, we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost. These results make a case for the inclusion of location-based weather data as inputs to supply curves that are used in capacity expansion models for the prediction of future geothermal deployment scenarios.

ambient temperature↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variability in Diurnal and Seasonal Ambient Conditions on Geothermal Plant Performance and Cost: Preprint

Geothermal plant performance is bounded by the second law efficiency, which accounts for the quantity of exergy that can be converted into useful work. This in turn is dependent on the geothermal resource temperature and the temperature of the heat sink (i.e., the ambient temperature). In this study we show that ambient temperature variability on a diurnal and seasonal basis can affect performance and cost estimations for geothermal plants. We have utilized the updated System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess nine geothermal sites with existing resource capacities across three climate zones. Our analysis shows that both evaporatively-cooled flash and air-cooled binary cycle plants are affected by temperature, with a slightly higher effect in EGS binary sites. By assuming an ambient (wet bulb) temperature baseline of 15.6 degrees C (60 degrees F) and comparing baseline results to those from site-specific data we observe up to 15% underestimation of plant performance and up to 20% overestimation of cost.

ambient temperature↗
DOE OSTI2021

The evolving role of geothermal energy for decarbonizing the United States

Geothermal energy is often referred to as a niche technology that is too localized, too small or too expensive to make much of a difference in how renewable energy will be supplied in a fully decarbonized future. As a result, geothermal energy has been undervalued in terms of what it could provide to complement, rather than compete with, electricity generation from wind, solar photovoltaic, concentrating solar power and other renewables. Geothermal energy systems are fully dispatchable and can provide baseload or load-following electric power or heat suitable for a wide range of applications including supplying district heating for communities and cities, and heating and cooling of individual buildings. The focus of our study is on the potential of utilizing geothermal energy for providing heat for buildings and industry at lower temperatures, a substitute for the combustion of fossil fuels. Because heating represents about 20% (20 EJ per year) of the annual primary energy consumption in the U.S.—with most of it coming from burning natural gas, oil and/or propane in furnaces—deploying geothermal heating on a national scale could have a significant impact on lowering carbon emissions. In heating-dominated states in the U.S. Northern Tier, heating often is among the largest contributors to the state's carbon footprint. This review begins with a discussion of the motivation and rationale behind considering geothermal as a key low-carbon heating option for the U.S. The study summarizes the U.S. geothermal resource and describes the applications and main engineering components of using geothermal energy for heating and cooling, electric power generation, and co-generation using district heating, geothermal heat pumps, and power conversion with steam flashing and organic Rankine plants. Environmental benefits and impacts are described. An extensive discussion of geologic and thermal-hydraulic aspects of the subsurface is included in the review because of their critical role in determining reservoir designs at specific sites to ensure sufficient productivity that is both safe and economically viable. Models for estimating levelized costs of district heating are used to show how costs are affected by reservoir performance, infrastructure capital costs, and financial parameters. Here, the review concludes with an assessment of technical subsurface issues associated with reservoir performance and the economic requirements for providing geothermal heating in district heating systems at a sufficient scale to have an impact on decarbonizing the U.S.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM

The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of extreme fracture flow channels on the thermal performance of open-loop geothermal systems at commercial scale

Abstract Adequate stewardship of geothermal resources requires accurate forecasting of long-term thermal performance. In enhanced geothermal systems and other fracture-dominated reservoirs, predictive models commonly assume constant-aperture fractures, although spatial variations in aperture can greatly affect reservoir permeability, fluid flow distribution, and heat transport. Whereas previous authors have investigated the effects of theoretical random aperture distributions on thermal performance, here we further explore the influence of permeability heterogeneity considering field-constrained aperture distributions from a meso-scale field site in northern New York, USA. Using numerical models of coupled fluid flow and heat transport, we conduct thermal–hydraulic simulations for a hypothetical reservoir consisting of a relatively impervious porous matrix and a single, horizontal fracture. Our results indicate that in highly channelized fields, most well design configurations and operating conditions result in extreme rates of thermal drawdown (e.g., 50% drop in production well temperatures in under 2 years). However, some other scenarios that account for the risks of short-circuiting can potentially enhance heat extraction when mass flow rate is not excessively high, and the direction of geothermal extraction is not aligned with the most permeable features in the reservoir. Through a parametric approach, we illustrate that well separation distance and relative positioning play a major role in the long-term performance of highly channelized fields, and both can be used to help mitigate premature thermal breakthrough.

Rangel-Jurado, Nicolás↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Energy R&D: An Overview of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office

Geothermal energy can provide answers to many of America’s essential energy questions. The United States has tremendous geothermal resources, as illustrated by the results of the DOE GeoVision analysis, but technical and non-technical barriers have historically stood in the way of widespread deployment of geothermal energy. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has invested more than $470 million in research and development (R&D) since 2015 to meet its three strategic goals: (1) unlock the potential of enhanced geothermal systems, (2) advance technologies to increase geothermal energy on the U.S. electricity grid, and (3) support R&D to expand geothermal energy opportunities throughout the United States. Here, we describe many of those R&D initiatives and outlines future directions in geothermal research.

energy storage systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

INGENIOUS - Great Basin Regional Dataset Compilation

This is the regional dataset compilation for the INnovative Geothermal Exploration through Novel Investigations Of Undiscovered Systems (INGENIOUS) project. The primary goal of this project is to accelerate discoveries of new, commercially viable hidden geothermal systems while reducing the exploration and development risks for all geothermal resources. These datasets will be used in INGENIOUS as input features for predicting geothermal favorability throughout the Great Basin study area. Datasets consist of shapefiles, geotiffs, tabular spreadsheets, and metadata that describe: 2-meter temperature probe surveys, quaternary faults and volcanic features, geodetic shear and dilation models, heat flow, magnetotellurics (conductance), magnetics, gravity, paleogeothermal features (such as sinter and tufa deposits), seismicity, spring and well temperatures, spring and well aqueous geochemistry analyses, thermal conductivity, and fault slip and dilation tendency. For additional project information, see the INGENIOUS project site linked in the submission. Terms of use: These datasets are provided "as is", and the contributors assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions. The user assumes the entire risk associated with their use of these data and bears all responsibility in determining whether these data are fit for their intended use. These datasets may be redistributed with attribution (see citation information below). Please refer to the license information on this page for full licensing terms and conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗