Results for “failure prediction” — Page 6

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting and Characterizing Patterns of Failure in Complex Engineered Systems: an Ontology Development and Clustering Approach

While the causes of failures in complex engineered systems are often clear in hindsight, it can be challenging to predict failures proactively during the design of novel engineered products or systems. Identifying patterns can be useful for capturing common characteristics that may lead to failure. In this paper, we present a methodology for identifying patterns of failure from NASA’s publicly available Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS). We apply an ontology development and clustering approach to identify representative patterns leading to failures in historical lessons learned. A joint inductive-deductive approach reveals the key themes in lessons that lead to failure, which are formalized and recorded as an ontology of complex systems failure causes. Documents from the LLIS are manually tagged with relevant characteristics from the ontology. From the tagged set, clustering is used to capture co-occurring sets of characteristics that lead to failure. The primary contribution of this work is a method for extracting a set of generic failure patterns in complex engineered systems and characteristics for these patterns that can be identified at design time, knowledge of which can be used to plan mitigation strategies.

Systems Engineering↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting and Characterizing Patterns of Failure in Complex Systems: An Ontology Development and Clustering Approach

While the causes of failures in complex engineered systems are often clear in hindsight, it can be challenging to predict failures proactively during the design of novel engineered products or systems. Identifying patterns can be useful for capturing common characteristics that may lead to failure. In this paper, we present a methodology for identifying patterns of failure from NASA’s publicly available Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS). We apply an ontology development and clustering approach to identify representative patterns leading to failures in historical lessons learned. A joint inductive-deductive approach reveals the key themes in lessons that lead to failure, which are formalized and recorded as an ontology of complex systems failure causes. Documents from the LLIS are manually tagged with relevant characteristics from the ontology. From the tagged set, clustering is used to capture co-occurring sets of characteristics that lead to failure. The primary contribution of this work is a method for extracting a set of generic failure patterns in complex engineered systems and characteristics for these patterns that can be identified at design time, knowledge of which can be used to plan mitigation strategies.

Systems Engineering↗

NASA NTRS2020

Analysis of Open Hole Compression Specimens Using the CompDam Continuum Damage Mechanics Model

This report documents a validation study on the standard Open Hole Compression (OHC) laminate test specimen conducted as part of the NASA Advanced Composites Project (ACP). Tests were conducted on OHC specimens with hard, quasi-isotropic, and soft layups using digital image correlation and X-Ray computed tomography to capture the structural response and damage evolution. Progressive damage models were constructed for use with the CompDam continuum damage mechanics code following the best practices established during the ACP. Detailed interrogation of the analysis results and comparison with experimental measurements provide a basis for assessing the capability of the modeling approach for OHC. The structural response is found to be captured well, with strengths predicted within 3\% of the experimental values for hard and quasi-isotropic laminates. In the soft laminate, the model predicts failure to be more brittle than the nonlinear, ductile response that was measured. Damage states extracted from the models at the same load level as test measurements are overlaid to show directly the similarities and differences between test and analysis results. Studying the damage evolution predicted by the analysis reveals that the failure process is a competition between fiber damage and delamination/sub-laminate buckling, with fiber damage dominating the collapse in the hard laminate and sub-laminate buckling governing in the soft laminate. Finally, a series of parametric studies varying numerical solution parameters (mesh size, mass scaling) and physical properties (fiber direction compressive strength and toughness) reveal sensitivities and deficiencies of the model. To the authors' knowledge, this study is the first for OHC specimens to include detailed evaluation of damage mode interactions, direct overlay of predicted and measured damage states, and sensitivity of the predicted results to difficult-to-measure fiber direction material properties.

Continuum damage mechanics↗

NASA NTRS1990

Postbuckling behavior of curved panels under combined compression and shear loads

A validated semiempirical design procedure and fatigue data were developed for curved, stiffened composite panels operating in the postbuckled regime under the action of combined compression and shear loading. A previously developed design methodology for composite panels under pure shear or pure compression loading was used as the starting point for the program. Initially, the well established interaction rules for metal panels were adopted to predict buckling under combined loading. Test data were then developed to verify these rules and suggest modifications where necessary. Postbuckling failure envelopes were developed by accounting for the failure modes possible under shear loading only, and under pure compression loading. Static failure predictions under combined loading were based on test verified interaction criteria. Fatigue tests were conducted under combined loading to determine strength degradation and the possible failure modes.

Deo, Ravi B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Advanced composites structural concepts and materials technologies for primary aircraft structures: Structural response and failure analysis

Non-linear analysis methods were adapted and incorporated in a finite element based DIAL code. These methods are necessary to evaluate the global response of a stiffened structure under combined in-plane and out-of-plane loading. These methods include the Arc Length method and target point analysis procedure. A new interface material model was implemented that can model elastic-plastic behavior of the bond adhesive. Direct application of this method is in skin/stiffener interface failure assessment. Addition of the AML (angle minus longitudinal or load) failure procedure and Hasin's failure criteria provides added capability in the failure predictions. Interactive Stiffened Panel Analysis modules were developed as interactive pre-and post-processors. Each module provides the means of performing self-initiated finite elements based analysis of primary structures such as a flat or curved stiffened panel; a corrugated flat sandwich panel; and a curved geodesic fuselage panel. This module brings finite element analysis into the design of composite structures without the requirement for the user to know much about the techniques and procedures needed to actually perform a finite element analysis from scratch. An interactive finite element code was developed to predict bolted joint strength considering material and geometrical non-linearity. The developed method conducts an ultimate strength failure analysis using a set of material degradation models.

Dorris, William J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Damage tolerance and arrest characteristics of pressurized graphite/epoxy tape cylinders

An investigation of the damage tolerance and damage arrest characteristics of internally-pressurized graphite/epoxy tape cylinders with axial notches was conducted. An existing failure prediction methodology, developed and verified for quasi-isotropic graphite/epoxy fabric cylinders, was investigated for applicability to general tape layups. In addition, the effect of external circumferential stiffening bands on the direction of fracture path propagation and possible damage arrest was examined. Quasi-isotropic (90/0/plus or minus 45)s and structurally anisotropic (plus or minus 45/0)s and (plus or minus 45/90)s coupons and cylinders were constructed from AS4/3501-6 graphite/epoxy tape. Notched and unnotched coupons were tested in tension and the data correlated using the equation of Mar and Lin. Cylinders with through-thickness axial slits were pressurized to failure achieving a far-field two-to-one biaxial stress state. Experimental failure pressures of the (90/0/plus or minus 45)s cylinders agreed with predicted values for all cases but the specimen with the smallest slit. However, the failure pressures of the structurally anisotropic cylinders, (plus or minus 45/0)s and (plus or minus 45/90)s, were above the values predicted utilizing the predictive methodology in all cases. Possible factors neglected by the predictive methodology include structural coupling in the laminates and axial loading of the cylindrical specimens. Furthermore, applicability of the predictive methodology depends on the similarity of initial fracture modes in the coupon specimens and the cylinder specimens of the same laminate type. The existence of splitting which may be exacerbated by the axial loading in the cylinders, shows that this condition is not always met. The circumferential stiffeners were generally able to redirect fracture propagation from longitudinal to circumferential. A quantitative assessment for stiffener effectiveness in containing the fracture, based on cylinder radius, slit size, and bending stiffnesses of the laminates, is proposed.

Ranniger, Claudia U.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Development of Composite Sandwich Bonded Longitudinal Joints for Space Launch Vehicle Structures

The NASA Composite Technology for Exploration (CTE) Project is developing and demonstrating critical composite technologies with a focus on composite bonded joints; incorporating materials, design/analysis, manufacturing, and tests that utilize NASA’s expertise and capabilities. The project has goals of advancing composite technologies and providing lightweight structures to support future NASA exploration missions. In particular, the CTE project will demonstrate weight-saving, performance-enhancing composite bonded joint technology for Space Launch System (SLS)-scale composite hardware. Advancements from the CTE project may be incorporated as future block upgrades for SLS structural components. This paper discusses the details of the development of a composite sandwich bonded longitudinal joint for a generic space launch vehicle structure called the CTE Point Design. The paper includes details of the design, analysis, materials, manufacturing, and testing of sub-element joint test articles to test the capability of the joint design. The test results show that the composite longitudinal bonded joint design significantly exceeds the design loads with a 2.0 factor of safety. Analysis pre-test failure predictions for all sub-element bonded joint test coupons were all within 10% of the average test coupon failure load. This testing and analysis provides confidence in the potential use of composite bonded joints for future launch vehicle structures.

Segal, Kenneth N.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A numerical procedure for predicting creep and delayed failures in laminated composites

A numerical procedure is described for predicting the viscoelastic response of general laminates. A nonlinear compliance model is used to predict the creep response of the individual laminae. A biaxial delayed failure model predicts ply failure. The numerical procedure, based on lamination theory, increases by increments through time to predict creep compliance and delayed failures in laminates. Numerical stability problems and experimental verification are discussed. Although the program has been quite successful in predicting creep of general laminates, the assumptions associated with lamination theory have resulted in erroneous bounds on the predicted material response. Delayed failure predictions have been conservative. Several improvements are suggested to increase the accuracy of the procedure.

Dillard, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Static and dynamic fatigue behavior of glass filament-wound pressure vessels at ambient and cryogenic temperatures.

Investigation of the pressure load carrying capacity and fatigue strength of filament-wound glass-reinforced plastic pressure vessels subjected to static and cyclic loading at ambient and cryogenic (liquid nitrogen) temperature environments. The results indicate that the static fatigue problem is not critical at cryogenic temperatures. Under static loading at liquid nitrogen temperature, a reinforced plastic cylinder sustained pressurization for 88 days without failure at about 90% of the single cycle burst strength. At ambient temperature, the static life at 90% of the burst strength was about 7 min. Under cyclic loading in liquid nitrogen, no failure resulted after 1509 cycles at 55% of the single cycle burst strength. Under the same cyclic loading at ambient temperature, the test results would predict failure in the reinforced plastic. The results of similar tests upon adhesively bonded polyimide aluminum-foil lined cylinders are also reviewed.-

Hanson, M. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Composite Bond Line Measurements Based on A Bayesian Analysis of Flash Thermography Data

For bonded composite materials, an accurate characterization of the adhesive bond line is needed to predict failure modes and fracture toughness. In this paper, bond line thickness was estimated from data obtained using through transmission flash thermography. The forward model that predicts back surface temperature is based on a three layer heat diffusion equation with varying diffusivity and flux boundary conditions. The corresponding inverse problem of estimating bond line thickness from measurement data was solved using a Bayesian approach that assumed Gaussian priors for the bond line thickness and thermal diffusivity of the adherends. Finally, the outputs of the thermography based method were compared to measurements that were collected using a micrometer and ultrasound testing.

Flash thermography↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Composite Bond Line Measurements Based on a Bayesian Analysis of Flash Thermography Data

For bonded composite materials, an accurate characterization of the adhesive bond line is needed to predict failure modes and fracture toughness. In this paper, bond line thickness was estimated from data obtained using through transmission flash thermography. The forward model that predicts back surface temperature is based on a three layer heat diffusion equation with varying diffusivity and flux boundary conditions. The corresponding inverse problem of estimating bond line thickness from measurement data was solved using a Bayesian approach that assumed Gaussian priors for the bond line thickness and thermal diffusivity of the adherends. Finally, the outputs of the thermography based method were compared to measurements that were collected using a micrometer and ultrasound testing.

Flash thermography↗

NASA NTRS1992

Compression failure of angle-ply laminates

Test results from the compression loading of (+ or - Theta/ - or + Theta)(sub 6s) angle-ply IM7-8551-7a specimens, 0 less than or = Theta less than or = 90 degs, are presented. The observed failure strengths and modes are discussed, and typical stress-strain relations shown. Using classical lamination theory and the maximum stress criterion, an attempt is made to predict failure stress as a function of Theta. This attempt results in poor correlation with test results and thus a more advanced model is used. The model, which is based on a geometrically nonlinear theory, and which was taken from previous work, includes the influence of observed layer waviness. The waviness is described by the wave length and the wave amplitude. The theory is briefly described and results from the theory are correlated with test results. It is shown that by using levels of waviness observed in the specimens, the correlation between predictions and observations is good.

Peel, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A micromechanics-based progressive failure model for laminated composite structures

A micromechanics-based mechanistic model for progressive failure analysis of laminated composite shell structures is developed. A finite-element program for laminated shell analysis is coupled with a micromechanical elasticity solution for predicting failure and effective composite properties. The laminate model is based on a third-order shell theory which allows for both transverse normal and shearing deformations. Results are presented for the progressive failure of a (0/90(4)s graphite/epoxy laminate under uniaxial tension. The effect of fiber volume fraction in the 90-deg plies on laminate behavior was studied, and it was found that decreasing the fiber-volume fraction in the off-axis plies did not affect the laminate stiffness or the ultimate failure load, but significantly increased the load at which initial failure occurred.

Averill, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Applications of a damage tolerance analysis methodology in aircraft design and production

Objectives of customer mandated aircraft structural integrity initiatives in design are to guide material selection, to incorporate fracture resistant concepts in the design, to utilize damage tolerance based allowables and planned inspection procedures necessary to enhance the safety and reliability of manned flight vehicles. However, validated fracture analysis tools for composite structures are needed to accomplish these objectives in a timely and economical manner. This paper briefly describes the development, validation, and application of a damage tolerance methodology for composite airframe structures. A closed-form analysis code, entitled SUBLAM was developed to predict the critical biaxial strain state necessary to cause sublaminate buckling-induced delamination extension in an impact damaged composite laminate. An embedded elliptical delamination separating a thin sublaminate from a thick parent laminate is modelled. Predicted failure strains were correlated against a variety of experimental data that included results from compression after impact coupon and element tests. An integrated analysis package was developed to predict damage tolerance based margin-of-safety (MS) using NASTRAN generated loads and element information. Damage tolerance aspects of new concepts are quickly and cost-effectively determined without the need for excessive testing.

Woodward, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Design and Analysis of Buckling-Critical Large-Scale Sandwich Composite Cylindrical Test Articles

It has long been established in the literature that the buckling response of thin-shell structures can be very sensitive to the presence of small geometric and loading imperfections. The Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project (SBKF) was established by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to develop analysis-based shell buckling design recommendations for stiffened-metallic and composite launch-vehicle shell structures. Large-scale buckling tests were used to validate the modeling and analysis methods applied in developing these analysis-based recommendations. Herein, the test article design methodology for 8-ft-diameter, honeycomb-core sandwich composite cylinder validation tests is discussed and cylinder designs are presented. In this methodology, first, the sandwich composite design space was defined using several nondimensional parameters, and the desired test article design space was determined by examining the designs of launch-vehicle cylinder structures. Essentially all test article designs within certain design parameters were generated and then downselected based on simple closed-form failure calculations and the nondimensional design-space parameters. Four of these designs that spanned a significant portion of the design space of interest and had global buckling as the first predicted failure mode were selected and subjected to higher-fidelity finite element analyses (FEAs): shell-element-based analyses, axisymmetric-element-based analyses, and global-local analyses. The analysis flow discussed in this report supported the design objective. As the analysis flow progressed, designs were downselected so the fidelity of the analysis methods, and consequently their computational cost and accuracy, was increased. The selection of the FEA types created an analysis framework where particular methods complemented each other and reduced the uncertainty of the predicted test article responses. The analysis results are illustrated using several designs when the computationally expeditious closed-form analysis stage is discussed. Once this stage is complete, the higher-fidelity FEA types are illustrated using one selected detailed test article design. Both perfect and imperfect test article geometries were considered.

Buckling↗