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NASA NTRS2011

Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

Lau, W. K.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A linear analysis of the transition curve for the baroclinic annulus

A primitive equation linear model is shown to be capable of quantitatively predicting the neutral curve for a baroclinic annulus. Flows unstable to small nonaxisymmetric perturbations are assumed to lie on the nonaxisymmetric side of a transition curve, while the stable flows are on the axisymmetric side. The stability in the presence of perturbations is tested with linearized hydrostatic primitive equations. Attention is given to the fastest growing eigenmodes, demonstrating that the linear and nonlinear wave have similar structures at a particular point in the nonaxisymmetric regime. All the waves are similar to the Eddy wave except at the extreme to the transition curve, where the waves maintain little structure with height. The eddy kinetic energy is baroclinic with a potential energy suppresed by the large static stability of the basic state. Eddy dissipation is noted to be significant near all boundaries.

Miller, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Impacts of Snow Darkening by Absorbing Aerosols on Eurasian Climate

The deposition of absorbing aerosols on snow surfaces reduces snow-albedo and allows snowpack to absorb more sunlight. This so-called snow darkening effect (SDE) accelerates snow melting and leads to surface warming in spring. To examine the impact of SDE on weather and climate during late spring and early summer, two sets of NASA GEOS-5 model simulations with and without SDE are conducted. Results show that SDE-induced surface heating is particularly pronounced in Eurasian regions where significant depositions of dust transported from the North African deserts, and black carbon from biomass burning from Asia and Europe occur. In these regions, the surface heating due to SDE increases surface skin temperature by 3-6 degrees Kelvin near the snowline in spring. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that SDE-induced excess heating is associated with a large increase in surface evaporation, subsequently leading to a significant reduction in soil moisture, and increased risks of drought and heat waves in late spring to early summer. Overall, we find that rainfall deficit combined with SDE-induced dry soil in spring provide favorable condition for summertime heat waves over large regions of Eurasia. Increased frequency of summer heat waves with SDE and the region of maximum increase in heat-wave frequency are found along the snow line, providing evidence that early snowmelt by SDE may increase the risks of extreme summer heat wave. Our results suggest that climate models that do not include SDE may significantly underestimate the effect of global warming over extra-tropical continental regions.

GEOS-5↗

NASA NTRS2011

Observation of Schumann Resonances in the Earth's Ionosphere

The surface of the Earth and the lower edge of the ionosphere define a cavity in which electromagnetic waves propagate. When the cavity is excited by broadband electromagnetic sources, e.g., lightning, a resonant state can develop provided the average equatorial circumference is approximately equal to an integral number of wavelengths of the electromagnetic waves. This phenomenon, known as Schumann resonance, corresponds to electromagnetic oscillations of the surface-ionosphere cavity, and has been used extensively to investigate atmospheric electricity. Using measurements from the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, we report, for the first time, Schumann resonance signatures detected well beyond the upper boundary of the cavity. These results offer new means for investigating atmospheric electricity, tropospheric-ionospheric coupling mechanisms related to lightning activity, and wave propagation in the ionosphere. The detection of Schumann resonances in the ionosphere calls for revisions to the existing models of extremely low frequency wave propagation in the surface-ionosphere cavity. Additionally, these measurements suggest new remote sensing capabilities for investigating atmospheric electricity at other planets.

Simoes, Fernando↗

NASA NTRS1986

Plasma waves observed by the IRM and UKS spacecraft during the AMPTE solar wind lithium releases - Overview

The wave measurements from the Ion Release Module and the United Kingdom Satellite in the diamagnetic cavity, the transition region, and the upstream region are examined. Solar wind conditions during the releases on September 11 and 20, 1984 are described. The quasi-static electric field, wideband, high-frequency waves, and medium and VLF waves observations are analyzed. The data reveal that extremely low levels of wave activity are observed in the boundary between the diamagnetic cavity and external magnetic field, medium and VLF waves in the ion acoustic electrostatic cyclotron harmonic modes are detected in the transition region from the diamagnetic cavity to the solar wind, and decay in the magnetic field strength and density, and an increase in the quasi-static electric field is seen in the upstream edge of the transition region. The emissions observed are related to the different phases of the Li cloud development and different spatial regimes of the Li plasma-solar wind interaction.

Haeusler, B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Have Heat Waves Become More Intense and Frequent in North America in the Past 40 Years?

Extreme events, especially heat waves, have seemingly become more frequent and intense in the past decades worldwide, likely associated with global warming. This study uses the extreme detection indices product derived from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) data to address whether heat waves have become more intense and frequent in North America in the past 40 years. We also examine in-depth the recent heat wave in June 2023 in Canada and the associated drought and wildfire events and compare them with previous years. We use additional data products in this study for cross-validation, including surface temperature from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS 2.0) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 7, with a shorter data latency, only a few days. In addition, we will demonstrate how to efficiently conduct long-term time-series data analysis, which involves a large volume of data, using data services developed at NASA GES DISC, such as Giovanni, datarod, and Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) Data Server (TDS). These services can be used to visualize and explore extreme events, and to download only the data that is of interest.

Xiaohua Pan↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Impact of Anthropogenic Land Use and Land Cover Change on Regional Climate Extremes

Recent research highlights the role of land surface processes in heat waves, droughts, and other extreme events. Here we use an earth system model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate the regional impacts of historical anthropogenic land useland cover change (LULCC) on combined extremes of temperature and humidity. A bivariate assessment allows us to consider aridity and moist enthalpy extremes, quantities central to human experience of near-surface climate conditions. We show that according to this model, conversion of forests to cropland has contributed to much of the upper central US and central Europe experiencing extreme hot, dry summers every 2-3 years instead of every 10 years. In the tropics, historical patterns of wood harvesting, shifting cultivation and regrowth of secondary vegetation have enhanced near surface moist enthalpy, leading to extensive increases in the occurrence of humid conditions throughout the tropics year round. These critical land use processes and practices are not included in many current generation land models, yet these results identify them as critical factors in the energy and water cycles of the midlatitudes and tropics.

Near-surface↗

DOE OSTI2020

Study of a linear surface wave plasma source for tin removal in an extreme ultraviolet source

Tin deposition mitigation employs hydrogen radicals and ions, formed in a hydrogen plasma, to interact with tin to form tin hydride (SnH 4 ) in the gaseous state, which is then pumped away. Surface wave plasma (SWP) technology developed at Illinois generates hydrogen radicals and ions, resulting in tin etch rates that are high enough to keep extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithographic tools clean. An advantage of an SWP antenna is the ability to generate a high density of hydrogen radicals and hydrogen ions directly at the desired etching location. In situ etching of tin enables high availability EUV tools by maintaining high reflectivity of the multilayer mirror of the collector. Additionally, the SWP is characterized with low ion energies and low electron temperature, such that the multilayer mirror does not suffer any damage from sputtering or implantation of hydrogen ions during operation. Here, experiments elucidating the fundamental processes of tin removal are conducted by varying pressure, power, surface temperature, and gas flow rate in order to observe the etch rate behavior. Our results have shown that the presence of hydrogen ions increases etch rates because ion bombardment weakens Sn–Sn bonds, which, in turn, allows for a higher rate of chemical etching by the radicals. The ion bombardment reduces the number of radicals needed to etch a single tin atom to the range of 10 2 –10 3 . The linear SWP antenna yields plasma densities on the order of 10 17 to 10 18 m -3 and radical densities on the order of 10 18 to 10 19 m -3 , allowing for greater utilization of ion etch enhancement. Etch rates of up to 200 nm/min have been achieved. The surface temperature of the samples is an important factor in the etching process such that the decrease in the surface temperature increases the etch rates and decreases the hydrogen desorption rates. In addition, a kinetic etch model is developed to explain the behavior of etch rates as a function of surface temperature. Furthermore, results from experiments performed in an Illinois NXE:3100 chamber will be discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2006

High-Frequency Electrostatic Wave Generation and Transverse Ion Acceleration by Low Alfvenic Wave Components of BBELF Turbulence

Satellite observations in the auroral plasma have revealed that extremely low frequency (ELF) waves play a dominant role in the acceleration of electrons and ions in the auroral plasma. The electromagnetic components of the ELF (EMELF) waves are the electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves below the cyclotron frequency of the lightest ion species in a multi-ion plasma. Shear Alfv6n waves (SAWS) constitute the lowest frequency components of the ELF waves below the ion cyclotron frequency of the heaviest ion. The -2 mechanism for the transfer of energy from such EMELF waves to ions affecting transverse ion heating still remains a matter of debate. A very ubiquitous fe8ture of ELF waves now observed in several rocket and satellite experiments is that they occur in conjunction with high-frequency electrostatic waves. The frequency spectrum of the composite wave turbulence extends from the low frequency of the Alfvenic waves to the high frequency of proton plasma frequency and/or the lower hybrid frequency. The spectrum does not show any feature organized by the ion cyclotron frequencies and their harmonics. Such broadband waves consisting of both the EM and ES waves are now popularly referred as BBELF waves. We present results here from 2.5-D particle-in-cell simulations showing that the ES components are directly generated by cross- field plasma instabilities driven by the drifts of the ions and electrons in the EM component of the BBELF waves.

Singh, Nagendra↗

NASA NTRS1995

Small scales formation via Alfven wave propagation in compressible nonuniform media

In weakly dissipative media governed by the magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations, any efficient mechanism of energy dissipation requires the formation of small scales. The possibility to produce small scales has been studied by Malara et al. in the case of MHD disturbances propagating in an incompressible and inhomogeneous medium, for a strictly 2D geometry. We extend the work of Malara et al. to include both compressibility and the third component for vector quantities. Using numerical simulations we show that, when an Alfven wave propagates in a compressible nonuniform medium, the two dynamical effects responsible for the small scales formation in the incompressible case are still at work: energy pinching and phase-mixing. Moreover, the interaction between the initial Alfven wave and the inhomogeneity gives rise to the formation of compressible perturbations (fast and slow waves or a static entropy wave). Some of these compressive fluctuations are subject to the steepening of the wave front and become shock waves, which are extremely efficient in dissipating their energy, their dissipation being independent of the Reynolds number. A rough estimate of the typical times which the various dynamical processes take to produce small scales and then to dissipate the energy show that these times are consistent with those required to dissipate inside the solar corona the energy of Alfven waves of photospheric origin.

Malara, F.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models

This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, represents the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21st Century global wind-wave climate projections available (henceforth COWCLIP2.0). COWCLIP2.0 comprises general and extreme statistics of significant wave height (H S ), mean wave period (T m ), and mean wave direction (θ m ) computed over time-slices 1979–2004 and 2081–2100, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally and annually). The full ensemble comprising 155 global wave climate simulations is obtained from ten CMIP5-based state-of-the-art wave climate studies and provides data derived from alternative wind-wave downscaling methods, and different climate-model forcing and future emissions scenarios. The data has been produced, and processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, and follows CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax, Directory structures, and Metadata requirements. Technical comparison of model skill against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height has been undertaken at global and regional scales. This new dataset provides support for future broad scale coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation studies in many offshore and coastal engineering applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS2012

On the Causes of and Long Term Changes in Eurasian Heat Waves

The MERRA reanalysis, other observations, and the GEOS-S model have been used to diagnose the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability (in this case a particular large-scale atmospheric planetary wave) that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. Model experiments suggest that forcing from both the ocean (SST) and land playa role phase-locking the waves. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more extreme in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

DOE OSTI2023

Study of the agreement between binary neutron star ejecta models derived from numerical relativity simulations

Neutron star mergers have recently become a tool to study extreme gravity, nucleosynthesis, and the chemical composition of the Universe. To date, there has been one joint gravitational and electromagnetic observation of a binary neutron star merger, GW170817, as well as a solely gravitational observation, GW190425. In order to accurately identify and interpret electromagnetic signals of neutron star mergers, better models of the matter outflows generated by these mergers are required. We compare a series of ejecta models to see where they provide strong constraints on the amount of ejected mass expected from a system, and where systematic uncertainties in current models prevent us from reliably extracting information from observed events. We also examine 2396 neutron star equations of state compatible with GW170817 to see whether a given ejecta mass could be reasonably produced with a neutron star of said equation of state, and whether different ejecta models provide consistent predictions. We find that the difference between models is often comparable to or larger than the error generally assumed for these models, implying better constraints on the models are needed. In conclusion, we also note that the extrapolation of outflow models outside of their calibration window, while commonly needed to analyze gravitational wave events, is extremely unreliable and occasionally leads to completely unphysical results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2002

Analysis of High Order Difference Methods for Multiscale Complex Compressible Flows

Accurate numerical simulations of complex multiscale compressible viscous flows, especially high speed turbulence combustion and acoustics, demand high order schemes with adaptive numerical dissipation controls. Standard high resolution shock-capturing methods are too dissipative to capture the small scales and/or long-time wave propagations without extreme grid refinements and small time steps. An integrated approach for the control of numerical dissipation in high order schemes with incremental studies was initiated. Here we further refine the analysis on, and improve the understanding of the adaptive numerical dissipation control strategy. Basically, the development of these schemes focuses on high order nondissipative schemes and takes advantage of the progress that has been made for the last 30 years in numerical methods for conservation laws, such as techniques for imposing boundary conditions, techniques for stability at shock waves, and techniques for stable and accurate long-time integration. We concentrate on high order centered spatial discretizations and a fourth-order Runge-Kutta temporal discretizations as the base scheme. Near the bound-aries, the base scheme has stable boundary difference operators. To further enhance stability, the split form of the inviscid flux derivatives is frequently used for smooth flow problems. To enhance nonlinear stability, linear high order numerical dissipations are employed away from discontinuities, and nonlinear filters are employed after each time step in order to suppress spurious oscillations near discontinuities to minimize the smearing of turbulent fluctuations. Although these schemes are built from many components, each of which is well-known, it is not entirely obvious how the different components be best connected. For example, the nonlinear filter could instead have been built into the spatial discretization, so that it would have been activated at each stage in the Runge-Kutta time stepping. We could think of a mechanism that activates the split form of the equations only at some parts of the domain. Another issue is how to define good sensors for determining in which parts of the computational domain a certain feature should be filtered by the appropriate numerical dissipation. For the present study we employ a wavelet technique introduced in as sensors. Here, the method is briefly described with selected numerical experiments.

Sjoegreen, Bjoern↗

NASA NTRS2002

Efficient Low Dissipative High Order Schemes for Multiscale MHD Flows

Accurate numerical simulations of complex multiscale compressible viscous flows, especially high speed turbulence combustion and acoustics, demand high order schemes with adaptive numerical dissipation controls. Standard high resolution shock-capturing methods are too dissipative to capture the small scales and/or long-time wave propagations without extreme grid refinements and small time steps. An integrated approach for the control of numerical dissipation in high order schemes for the compressible Euler and Navier-Stokes equations has been developed and verified by the authors and collaborators. These schemes are suitable for the problems in question. Basically, the scheme consists of sixth-order or higher non-dissipative spatial difference operators as the base scheme. To control the amount of numerical dissipation, multiresolution wavelets are used as sensors to adaptively limit the amount and to aid the selection and/or blending of the appropriate types of numerical dissipation to be used. Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves play a key role in drag reduction in highly maneuverable high speed combat aircraft, in space weather forecasting, and in the understanding of the dynamics of the evolution of our solar system and the main sequence stars. Although there exist a few well-studied second and third-order high-resolution shock-capturing schemes for the MHD in the literature, these schemes are too diffusive and not practical for turbulence/combustion MHD flows. On the other hand, extension of higher than third-order high-resolution schemes to the MHD system of equations is not straightforward. Unlike the hydrodynamic equations, the inviscid MHD system is non-strictly hyperbolic with non-convex fluxes. The wave structures and shock types are different from their hydrodynamic counterparts. Many of the non-traditional hydrodynamic shocks are not fully understood. Consequently, reliable and highly accurate numerical schemes for multiscale MHD equations pose a great challenge to algorithm development. In addition, controlling the numerical error of the divergence free condition of the magnetic fields for high order methods has been a stumbling block. Lower order methods are not practical for the astrophysical problems in question. We propose to extend our hydrodynamics schemes to the MHD equations with several desired properties over commonly used MHD schemes.

Sjoegreen, Bjoern↗

DOE OSTI2020

A thermodynamic analysis of hypervelocity impacts on metals

Hypervelocity impacts on solid surfaces generate and propagate shock waves and create extreme density, pressure, and temperature conditions. Understanding hypervelocity impacts requires a multi-physics approach at the intersection of fluid dynamics, solid mechanics, and quantum theory, which has the capability of spanning multiple different dominating physics regimes. These strong shock conditions found in hypervelocity impacts are studied in the context of high-speed collisions between spacecraft and meteoroids and debris. We study the problem of hypervelocity impacts on metals with the lens of understanding the processes that lead to the creation of an impact generated plasma. In order to characterize the impacting particle as well as its threat to spacecraft from the subsequent radiating plasma an analysis was performed that highlights how the kinetic energy of the impactor is deposited into a target, how the shock wave and shocked material in the target evolve, and how these effects can lead towards the creation of an impact plasma through heating. The analysis suggests that at low velocities the majority of the energy from a hypervelocity impact is stored in reversible elastic energy and does not contribute to strong heating. At higher impact velocities, nucleus and electron thermal components dominate, increasing the energy available for ionization. Overall, this work provides the complete set of state variable initial conditions for any study of hypervelocity impact plasma expansion and its effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiwavelength Afterglow Analysis of GRB 221009A: Unveiling the Evolution of a Cooling Break in a Wind-like Medium

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are the most energetic explosions in the Universe, and their afterglow emission provides an opportunity to probe the physics of relativistic shock waves in an extreme environment. Several key pieces for completing the picture of GRB afterglow physics are still missing, including jet properties, the emission mechanism, and particle acceleration. Here, we present a study of the afterglow emission of GRB 221009A, the most energetic GRB ever observed. Using optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray data up to approximately 2 days after the trigger, we trace the evolution of the multiwavelength spectrum and the physical parameters behind the emission process. The broadband spectrum is consistent with the synchrotron emission emitted by relativistic electrons with its index of p = 2.29 ± 0.02. We identify a break energy at keV and an exponential cutoff at GeV in the observed multiwavelength spectrum. The break energy increases in time from $16.0^{+7.1}_{-4.9}$ keV at 0.65 days to $46.8^{+25.0}_{-15.5}$ keV at 1.68 days, favoring a stellar-wind-like profile of the circumburst medium with k = 2.4 ± 0.1 as in ρ(r) ∝ r -k . The high-energy attenuation at around 0.4 to 4 GeV is attributed to the maximum of the particle acceleration in the relativistic shock wave. This study confirms that the synchrotron process can explain the multiwavelength afterglow emission and its evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Evolution from the Chromosphere to the Heliosphere in the 2021 October 28 Solar Eruption

We perform a detailed study of the energetics for a well-observed solar eruption and flare that occurred on 2021 October 28. This event included a GOES class X1.0 flare, a global extreme-UV (EUV) wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that reached speeds of >2000 km s −1 . The event was observed from a variety of spacecraft in NASA’s Heliophysics System Observatory, including multiple missions near Earth, STEREO-A off the Sun-Earth line, and Solar Orbiter, near the Sun-Earth line at about 0.8 au. Using remote sensing, in situ observations, and in some cases scaling laws based on previous observations, we characterize the following quantities: free magnetic energy, energy in nonthermal electrons, energy in nonthermal ions, bolometric energy, energy deposited in the chromosphere, thermal energy radiated in the flare loops, energy dissipated by the EUV wave, CME kinetic and gravitational potential energy, CME energy flux in the heliosphere, and the energy partition in the CME shock. We find that the total energy released during the event is consistent with estimates of the pre-event stored magnetic energy, and the CME kinetic + potential energy dominates the energy partition.

solar coronal mass ejection shocks↗