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At least 109 records · Page 6

Simulated effect of defect volume and location on very high cycle fatigue of laser beam powder bed fused AlSi10Mg

This study quantifies the interaction between volumetric defect location and size on the very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) of laser beam powder bed fused (LB-PBF) AlSi10Mg. Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) simulations were used to investigate the effects of defect location and size on the driving force for crack initiation. The CPFEM model was calibrated against uniaxial and cyclic experimental data of LB-PBF AlSi10Mg. Defect characteristics were informed by experimental data from the specimens produced in various geometries to create realistic representative volume elements (RVEs) with equivalent volume fractions of defects. By embedding defects of varying sizes and locations within the RVEs, fatigue indicator parameters (FIPs) were calculated to analyze the impact of defects’ characteristics on fatigue performance. Different combinations of defect volume and locations were generated for various microstructure instantiations, providing insight into extreme value fatigue responses. Larger defect volumes located on free surfaces consistently generated the highest FIPs, suggesting defect size and boundary proximity intensify stress concentration effects. RVEs with multiple smaller defects produced lower FIPs than those with single large critical defects. These findings underscore the critical role of defect characteristics on fatigue life, providing a foundation for future predictive modeling in fatigue-sensitive AM applications.

AlSi10Mg↗

An explicit, energy-conserving particle-in-cell scheme

We present an explicit temporal discretization of particle-in-cell schemes for the non-relativistic Vlasov equation that results in exact energy conservation when combined with an appropriate spatial discretization. The scheme is inspired by a simple, second-order explicit scheme that conserves energy exactly in the Eulerian context. We show that direct translation to particle-in-cell does not result in strict conservation, but derive a simple correction based on an analytically solvable optimization problem that recovers conservation. While this optimization problem is not guaranteed to have a real solution for every particle, we provide a correction that makes imaginary values extremely rare and still admits $\mathcal{O}$(10 –12 ) fractional errors in energy for practical simulation parameters. We present the scheme in both electrostatic – where we use the Ampère formulation – and electromagnetic contexts. With an electromagnetic field solve, the field update is most naturally linearly implicit, but the more computationally intensive particle update remains fully explicit. Here, we also show how the scheme can be extended to use the fully explicit leapfrog and pseudospectral analytic time-domain (PSATD) field solvers. The scheme is tested on standard kinetic plasma problems, confirming its conservation properties.

Energy conservation↗

Nanoscale fluctuation of stacking fault energy strengthens multi-principal element alloys

Chemical randomness and the associated energy fluctuation are essential features of multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs). Due to these features, nanoscale stacking fault energy (SFE) fluctuation is a natural and independent contribution to strengthening MPEAs. However, existing models for conventional alloys (i.e., alloys with one principal element) cannot be applied to MPEAs. The extreme values of SFEs required by such models are unknown for MPEAs, which need to calculate the nanoscale volume relevant to the SFE fluctuation. In the present work, we developed an analytic model to evaluate the strengthening effect through the SFE fluctuation, profuse in MPEAs. The model has no adjustable parameters, and all parameters can be determined from experiments and ab initio calculations. Further, this model explains available experimental observations and provides insightful guidance for designing new MPEAs based on the SFE fluctuation. It generally applies to MPEAs in random states and with chemical short-range order.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparing the cooling effectiveness of operationalisable urban surface combination scenarios for summer heat mitigation

Extreme summer heat in cities exacerbates the vulnerability of urban communities to heatwaves. Vegetative and reflective urban surfaces can help reduce urban heat. This study investigated the impacts of urban trees, green roofs and cool roofs on heat mitigation during average and extreme summer conditions in temperate oceanic Melbourne, Australia. We simulated the city climate using ‘The Air Pollution Model’ (TAPM) at a 1 km spatial resolution over 10 years, which according to our review of the literature, was the most prolonged period for simulation in Melbourne. During a widespread heatwave event, some of the tested scenarios with combined surface parameters could reduce the extreme values of the energy budget components- sensible heat, latent heat, and storage heat fluxes up to seasonal averages compared to the existing situation for Melbourne (control). The scenario with the highest (reasonable maximum) ground-level vegetation, green roofs, and cool roofs could reduce air temperatures up to 2.4 °C. The simulations suggest that a combined strategy with vegetative and high-albedo surfaces will deliver higher effectiveness with maximum cooling benefits and cost-effectiveness than individual strategies in cities. These results suggest the importance of collaborative strategic planning of urban surfaces to make cities healthier, sustainable, and liveable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mixing across stable density interfaces in forced stratified turbulence

Understanding how turbulence enhances irreversible scalar mixing in density-stratified fluids is a central problem in geophysical fluid dynamics. While isotropic overturning regions are commonly the focus of mixing analyses, we here investigate whether significant mixing may arise in anisotropic statically stable regions of the flow. Focusing on a single forced direct numerical simulation of stratified turbulence, we analyse spatial correlations between the vertical density gradient $\partial \rho /\partial z$ and the dissipation rates of kinetic energy $\epsilon$ and scalar variance $\chi$ , the latter quantifying scalar mixing. The domain is characterized by relatively well-mixed density layers separated by sharp stable interfaces that are correlated with high vertical shear. While static instability is most prevalent within the mixed layers, much of the scalar mixing is localized to the intervening interfaces, a phenomenon not apparent if considering local static instability or $\epsilon$ alone. While the majority of the domain is characterized by the canonical flux coefficient $\varGamma \equiv \chi /\epsilon =0.2$ , often assumed in ocean mixing parametrizations, extreme values of $\chi$ within the statically stable interfaces, associated with elevated $\varGamma$ , strongly skew the bulk statistics. Our findings suggest that current parametrizations of turbulent mixing may be biased by undersampling, such that the most common, but not necessarily the most significant, mixing events are overweighted. Having focused here on a single simulation of stratified turbulence, it is hoped that our results motivate a broader investigation into the role played by stable density interfaces in mixing, across a wider range of parameters and forcing schemes representative of ocean turbulence.

Couchman, Miles M. P. (ORCID:0000000246676829)↗

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projecting Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Ozone Pollution Events Under Uncertain Climate Sensitivity

Abstract Climate change is projected to worsen ozone pollution over many populated regions, with larger impacts at higher concentrations. More intense and frequent ozone episodes risk setbacks to human health and environmental policy achievements. However, assessing these changes is complicated by uncertain climate sensitivity, closely related to climate model response, and internal variability in simulations projecting climate's influence on air quality. Here, leveraging a global modeling framework that one‐way couples a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and an atmospheric chemistry model, we investigate the role of climate sensitivity in climate‐induced changes to high ozone pollution episodes in the United States using multiple greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, representations of climate sensitivity, and initial condition members. We bias correct and evaluate historical model simulations, identifying modeled and observed O 3 episodes using extreme value theory, and extend the approach to projections of mid‐ and end‐century climate impacts. Results show that the influence of climate sensitivity can be as significant as that of greenhouse gas emissions scenario absent precursor emissions changes. Climate change is projected to increase the magnitude of the highest annually occurring O 3 concentrations by over 2.3 ppb on average across the U.S. at mid‐century under a high climate sensitivity and moderate emissions scenario, but the increase is limited to less than 0.3 ppb under lower climate sensitivity. Further, we show that areas in the U.S. currently meeting air quality standards risk being pushed into non‐compliance due to a climate‐induced increase in frequency of high ozone days.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

How galaxies populate halos in extreme density environments: An analysis of the halo occupation distribution in SDSS

Recent works have shown that the properties of galaxy populations in simulated dark matter halos vary with large-scale environments. These results suggest a variation in the halo occupation distribution (HOD) in extreme density environments since the dynamical and astrophysical conditions prevailing in these regions may significantly affect the formation and evolution of their halos and residing galaxies, influencing the mean number of satellite galaxies. To analyse these effects, we identify cosmic voids and future virialised structures (FVS) in the Sloan Digital Sky Server Data Release 12 (SDSS-DR12) and estimate the HOD within these super-structures using group catalogues as dark matter halo proxies. Our goal is to use observational galaxy data to characterise the HOD within cosmic voids and FVS, explore the different properties of these galaxies populations and compare them with the general results outside these super-structures. We use a publicly available observational galaxy catalogue with information on redshifts, positions, magnitudes and other astrophysical features to build a volume complete galaxy sample and identify cosmic voids and FVS. Using a publicly available galaxy group catalogue as a proxy to dark matter halos, we compute the HOD within both types of super-structures for different absolute magnitude thresholds. We also study the dependence on the results on the main void and FVS properties, density and volume. We also analysed the main characteristics of the stellar content of galaxies inside these extreme-density regions such as the mean stellar age and the galaxy light concentration index. In all cases, we compare the results with those derived from the Field sample, defined by objects outside both types of environments. Inside cosmic voids, we find a strong decrease in HOD concerning the Field results. In the most extreme cases, the mean number of satellites fall to ~ 50%. Inside FVS, the HOD shows a significant increase to the Field, with a ~ 40% excess in the mean number of satellites. These results are present for the different galaxy luminosity ranges explored. In both environments, the differences with respect to the Field increases for the extreme values of the density environments. However, we obtain no signs of variations related to intrinsic characteristics of the super-structures, indicating that the effects depend mainly on the density of the large-scale environment. In addition, we find that the cumulative distribution of the mean age of stars of the central galaxy also varies in the different regions, this suggests that the history of the formation of the dark matter halos may be different. Finally, we explore the HOD for the 25% youngest (oldest) galaxies, based on the mean age of their stars. We find that for the low-mass groups the youngest galaxies are only present inside voids and are generally central galaxies. On the other hand, for the high-mass groups the FVS environments show the same increase in the HOD concerning the Field as previously mentioned. We find that cosmic voids lack a significant fraction of galaxies with the oldest stellar population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermal conductivity tensor of β -1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazoctane ( β -HMX) as a function of pressure and temperature

Here, we have used reverse non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (RNEMD) simulations to determine the full thermal conductivity tensor for the monoclinic high explosive crystal β-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazoctane (β-HMX). In order to do so for the monoclinic crystal, four directions for heat propagation are used. Effects of the temperature and pressure are investigated between 200 and 500 K and 0 and 5 GPa, respectively, which approximately covers the range where the β polymorph is stable. Simulations are carried out with the Smith–Bharadwaj non-reactive empirical potential [Smith and Bharadwaj, J. Phys. Chem. B 103, 3570 (1999)], which is known to reproduce well the thermo-elastic properties of HMX. Our results indicate that the thermal conductivity, κ, is highly anisotropic, with 36% difference between the two extreme values at 300 K and 0 GPa. A simple function is used to interpolate κ in the pressure-temperature regime considered in this study, which can be used in continuum models. The results from RNEMD simulations compare well with available experimental results from the literature and allow the determination of κ for any direction and temperature and pressure within or around the fitting interval.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

New Perspectives on Spectroscopic Factor Quenching from Reactions

The evolution of single-particle strengths as the neutron-to-proton asymmetry changes informs us of the importance of short- and long-range correlations in nuclei and has therefore been extensively studied for the last two decades. Surprisingly, the strong asymmetry dependence of these strengths and their extreme values for highly asymmetric nuclei inferred from knockout reaction measurements on a target nucleus are not consistent with what is extracted from electron-induced, transfer, and quasi-free reaction data, constituting a two-decade old puzzle. This work presents the first consistent analysis of one-nucleon transfer and one-nucleon knockout data, in which theoretical uncertainties associated with the nucleon-nucleus effective interactions considered in the reaction models are quantified using a Bayesian analysis. Here, our results demonstrate that, taking into account these uncertainties, the spectroscopic strengths of loosely bound nucleons extracted from both probes agree with each other and, although there are still discrepancies for deeply bound nucleons, the slope of the asymmetry dependence of the single-particle strengths inferred from transfer and knockout reactions are consistent within 1 σ . Both probes are consistent with a small asymmetry dependence of these strengths. The uncertainties obtained in this work represent a lower bound and are already significantly larger than the original estimates.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Nonmonotonic effect of chemical heterogeneity on interfacial crack growth at high-angle grain boundaries in Fe-Ni-Cr alloys

Here, an intermittent pattern is observed in the modeling of interfacial cyclic-loading crack growth at high-angle grain boundaries in ternary Fe-Ni-Cr alloys. Different from conventional wisdom of stress-intensity factor, the abrupt crack advances are found driven by extreme value statistics—namely, the aggregation of atoms with most compressive residual stresses. In addition, inherently non-affine atomic stress fluctuations are discovered, and the fluctuations peak at intermediate level of chemical heterogeneity, causing the fastest crack growth. Implications of such nonmonotonic mechanism in regard to the origin of intermediate-temperature embrittlement phenomena are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

gcm_eval (Global Climate Model Evaluation) [SWR-24-37]

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex as our changing climate continues to affect the weather we experience which in turn drives changes in the ever increasing share of renewable energy generation and energy demand. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and often subjective process. There is no single perfect climate model or dataset for all applications. In this repository, we include software and the corresponding assessments of various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), evaluating their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparing of their future projections of climate change. We focus on variables that directly affect the energy system including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this repository is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and datasets in subsequent work.

Buster, Grant↗

Multitask graph neural networks for elastoplastic response prediction in dual-phase polycrystals

Microstructure-sensitive prediction of elastoplastic response remains a recurring bottleneck in multiscale damage and fatigue modeling, where large ensembles of statistically distinct polycrystals are required to quantify variability and extreme-value behavior. In this work, we develop a multitask graph neural network (GNN) surrogate that maps dual-phase ferrite–martensite polycrystal microstructures to Statistical Volume Element (SVE)-level elastoplastic Quantities of Interest (QoIs). Each SVE is represented as a grain-adjacency graph, with node features encoding phase, geometry, and crystallographic orientation, and edge features encoding relative misorientation. A message-passing graph convolution generates node embeddings, which are pooled into a graph representation and passed to a multitask regression head that jointly predicts 10 scalar QoIs and vector-valued stress–strain responses in orthogonal loading directions across multiple martensite volume fractions and SVE sizes. Results show high accuracy for scalar QoIs and strong agreement for full stress–strain trajectories, with population envelopes reproducing both median behavior and finite-SVE variability across compositions and partition scales. A unified model trained on pooled volume-fraction data preserves most within-regime accuracy relative to regime-specific models while also capturing the broader cross-regime variation reflected in the pooled test set. Distributional comparisons further demonstrate that the surrogate preserves heterogeneity under SVE partitioning, enabling statistically consistent block-wise random-field construction for mesoscale analyses. Overall, the proposed grain-graph surrogate provides a practical pathway to accelerate ensemble-based studies of SVE-level constitutive variability in dual-phase polycrystals.

Crystal plasticity↗

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Improved Subseasonal Forecasting of Extreme Polar Vortices Using Machine Learning

Our research was focused on forecasting the position and shape of the winter stratospheric polar vortex at a subseasonal timescale of 15 days in advance. To achieve this, we employed both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques. The analysis was performed on 42 winter seasons of reanalysis data provided by NASA giving us a total of 6,342 days of data. The state of the polar vortex for determined by using geometric moments to calculate the centroid latitude and the aspect ratio of an ellipse fit onto the vortex. Timeseries for thirty additional precursors were calculated to help improve the predictive capabilities of the algorithm. Feature importance of these precursors was performed using random forest to measure the predictive importance and the ideal number of precursors. Then, using the precursors identified as important, various statistical methods were tested for predictive accuracy with random forest and nearest neighbor performing the best. An echo state network, a type of recurrent neural network that features sparsely connected hidden layer and a reduced number of trainable parameters that allows for rapid training and testing, was also implemented for the forecasting problem. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for each methods using a subset of the training data. The algorithms were trained and tuned on the first 41 years of data, then tested for accuracy on the final year. In general, the centroid latitude of the polar vortex proved easier to predict than the aspect ratio across all algorithms. Random forest outperformed other statistical forecasting algorithms overall but struggled to predict extreme values. Forecasting from echo state network suggested a strong predictive capability past 15 days, but further work is required to fully realize the potential of recurrent neural network approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Modeling of Floating Wind Farms with Shared Anchors

As design options for floating wind farms continue to be explored, shared (or multiline) anchors that secure mooring lines from multiple turbines remain a promising technology that can potentially reduce the number of anchors and overall mooring costs. This study evaluates two methods for analyzing the loads on shared anchors: one in which floating offshore wind turbines are simulated individually (using the software OpenFAST), and one in which an entire floating wind farm is simulated collectively (using the software FAST.Farm). A three-line shared anchor is evaluated for multiple loading scenarios in deep water, using the International Energy Agency 15 MW turbine on the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. While the two methods produce broadly comparable results, the coupled wave loading on platforms within the farm results in wave force cancellations and amplifications that decrease multiline force directional ranges and increase multiline force extreme values (up to 7%) and standard deviations (up to 11%) for wave-driven load cases. The inclusion of wakes in FAST.Farm also reduces the net load on the shared anchor due to the velocity deficit, leading to larger differences between OpenFAST and FAST.Farm (up to 3% difference in mean loads) for load cases with operational turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗