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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Cathode Cooling in Three-Dimensional Simulations of an Atmospheric Pressure Glow Discharge

The Atmospheric Pressure Glow Discharge (APGD) is a relatively simple and versatile plasma source used in a wide range of applications. Active cooling of the cathode can effectively mitigate instabilities, leading to glow-to-arc transitions. This study investigates the effect of varying the degree of cathode cooling in APGD with a planar cathode in helium. The plasma flow model incorporates mass conservation, chemical species transport, momentum conservation, conservation of thermal energy of heavy species and of electrons, and electrostatics. The model is applied to time-dependent simulations through a three-dimensional computational domain describing the whole discharge, without geometric symmetry or steady-state assumptions. Simulations of an experimentally characterized APGD explore the effects of electric current and cathode cooling—ranging from thermally insulated to extreme convective cooling. Results show the formation of an annular region with high electric field over the cathode surface under conditions of high current and low cooling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrinsic nonlocality of spin- and polarization-resolved probabilities in strong-field quantum electrodynamics

Spin and polarization are central to precision tests of fundamental physics and for interpreting radiation from astrophysical sources and ultraintense laser-matter experiments. Here, focusing on the fundamental process of nonlinear Compton scattering, we demonstrate that a key assumption underlying current strong-field quantum electrodynamics models, i.e., that emission can be treated as an instantaneous random event sampled from a local differential rate, is inconsistent once emission angles, electron spin, and/or photon polarization are resolved. Namely, even in strictly constant and uniform fields , the resulting fully differential distribution is sign indefinite, yielding negative inferred probabilities. The physical reason is that the photon emission probability builds up over a finite length of the electron trajectory, the formation region, during which the electron direction changes by roughly the same small angle that defines the radiation cone. Therefore, we put forward a new method where we integrate over this formation region analytically to obtain a physically consistent electron spin and photon polarization model. We show that the implementation of our model is compatible with existing Monte Carlo and particle-in-cell workflows. Simulations of a GeV-class electron-laser collision accessible at current petawatt facilities and of emission in a pulsarlike magnetic field are shown to reveal spin and polarization patterns that differ even qualitatively from state-of-the-art local models. In particular, our new model predicts substantial angle-dependent circular photon polarization where the well-known collinear-emission approach yields none, and a pronounced helicity bias in the recoiling electrons absent from current predictions. These findings have direct implications for upcoming strong-field QED experiments and for interpreting polarized radiation from extreme astrophysical environments.

astrophysical electromagnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Manufactured Strain Sensors for Extreme Environments

Experimentation at irradiation test facilities are essential for reducing the innovation time of developmental fuels, fuel cladding, and structural materials employed in next-generation nuclear reactors. However, due to the harsh conditions generated in such reactors and limited instrumentation space, the evaluation of a material’s mechanical properties is often limited to characterization after the materials have been removed from reactor conditions, or post-irradiation examination. These experiments are costly, time-consuming, and fail to capture the critical time-evolving phenomena that occur during the irradiation experiments. Advanced manufactured digital image correlation patterns and strain sensor devices serve as two promising technologies that can be deployed in the confined and challenging orientations of these irradiation experiments while also providing key insight on salient materials phenomena (i.e., mechanical properties). To guide the development of the printed strain sensors prior to their deployment in critical experiments, the adhesion strength between the substrate and printed film interface is measured via tensile testing and a non-contact laser-induced spallation technique. The establishment of these process control steps helped guide the successful fabrication and testing of direct-write strain sensing devices discussed in this work. The fabrication process controls are necessary for enabling the sustained operation of these strain sensing device through experimentation and minimize the potential for premature failure.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Manufactured Strain Sensors for Extreme Environments

Experimentation at irradiation test facilities are essential for reducing the innovation time of developmental fuels, fuel cladding, and structural materials employed in next-generation nuclear reactors. However, due to the harsh conditions generated in such reactors and limited instrumentation space, the evaluation of a material’s mechanical properties is often limited to characterization after the materials have been removed from reactor conditions, or post-irradiation examination. These experiments are costly, time-consuming, and fail to capture the critical time-evolving phenomena that occur during the irradiation experiments. Advanced manufactured digital image correlation patterns and strain sensor devices serve as two promising technologies that can be deployed in the confined and challenging orientations of these irradiation experiments while also providing key insight on salient materials phenomena (i.e., mechanical properties).To guide the development of the printed strain sensors prior to their deployment in critical experiments, the adhesion strength between the substrate and printed film interface is measured via tensile testing and a non-contact laser-induced spallation technique. The establishment of these process control steps helped guide the successful fabrication and testing of direct-write strain sensing devices discussed in this work. The fabrication process controls are necessary for enabling the sustained operation of these strain sensing device through experimentation and minimize the potential for premature failure.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The R -process Alliance: Fifth Data Release from the Search for R -process-enhanced Metal-poor Stars in the Galactic Halo with the GTC

Understanding the abundance pattern of metal-poor stars and the production of heavy elements through various nucleosynthesis processes offers crucial insights into the chemical evolution of the Milky Way, revealing primary sites and major sources of rapid neutron-capture process (r-process) material in the Universe. In this fifth data release from the R-Process Alliance (RPA), we present the detailed chemical abundances of 41 faint (down to V = 15.8) and extremely metal-poor (down to [Fe/H] = -3.3) halo stars selected from the RPA. We obtained high-resolution spectra for these objects with the HORuS spectrograph on the Gran Telescopio Canarias. We measure the abundances of light, α, Fe-peak, and neutron-capture elements. We report the discovery of five carbon-enhanced metal-poor, one limited-r, three r-I, and four r-II stars, and six Mg-poor stars. We also identify one star of a possible globular cluster origin at an extremely low metallicity at [Fe/H] = -3.0. This adds to the growing evidence of a lower-limit metallicity floor for globular cluster abundances. We use the abundances of Fe-peak elements and the α-elements to investigate the contributions from different nucleosynthesis channels in the progenitor supernovae. We find the distribution of [Mg/Eu] as a function of [Fe/H] to have different enrichment levels, indicating different possible pathways and sites of their production. We also reveal differences in the trends of the neutron-capture element abundances of Sr, Ba, and Eu of various r-I and r-II stars from the RPA data releases, which provide constraints on their nucleosynthesis sites and subsequent evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intercalated chalcogenides Fe 1/4 TaS 2 and Fe 1/3 TaS 2 under extreme pressure—temperature conditions

Intercalation is an important strategy for enhancing functionality in complex chalcogenides. This is because layered materials can be endowed with intriguing properties by filling the van der Waals gap with various ions and molecules, which, in addition to their unique chemistry, break symmetry in new ways. In order to explore the properties of intercalated metal dichalcogenides under extreme pressure-temperature conditions, we combine diamond anvil cell techniques, Raman scattering spectroscopy, magnetic susceptibility, and first-principles calculations to reveal the pressure–temperature phase diagram of Fe 1/3 TaS 2 . This system hosts a compression-driven structural phase transition to a polar state as well as remnant charge density wave signatures deriving from the host lamella of the 2H-parent compound. We also explore the role of different A-site patterns and determine that, by comparison, Fe 1/4 TaS 2 is soft and flexible due to the lower metal density inside the van der Waals gap. These findings open the door to entirely new states of matter with exciting property combinations, including metallicity, polarity, chirality, and altermagnetism – depending upon the conditions – that can support a wide range of spintronics and phononics applications.

Materials science↗
DOE OSTI2026

The FastrSHWFS Project Development Motivation, Analysis, & Test Results

The recent 2020 Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics listed habitable exoplanet imaging with future extreme adaptive optics (AO) on 30m-class telescopes as a key priority in the coming decade. However, there is a current 100x contrast gap between the best systems today and what is needed to enable this goal. Astronomical AO is a required approach to enable ground-based diffraction-limited imaging of exoplanets on future extremely large telescopes. Time lag between the end of an exposure and the application of deformable mirror commands is a major contributor to the error budget in many AO systems, and detector read time is often a large component of this lag. We present two designs for a modified Shack Hartmann wavefront sensor (SHWFS), named Focal plane Actualized Shifted Technique Realized for a SHWFS (fastrSHWFS), to reduce the time lag component. This design steers the spot pattern at the focal plane into a rectangular or linear array with a custom aspect ratio, reducing readout time. The mask with focus yields aberrated results while the mask with tip/tilt only yields some defined spots. This essay outlines the current SHWFS concept, our fastrSHWFS theoretical solution to addressing time lag, reflection and quality analysis of printed mask designs, and results from testing both masks on the High Contrast Testbed at Lawrence Livermore National Lab. This work follows the test of a previous fastrSHWFS design.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mixed gain detector configurations for time-resolved X-ray solution scattering

X-ray detection at X-ray free-electron lasers is challenging in part due to the XFEL's extremely short and intense X-ray pulses. Experimental measurements are further complicated by the large fluctuations inherent to the self-amplified spontaneous emission process producing the X-rays. At the Linac Coherent Light Source the ePix10ka2M detector offers multiple gain modes, and auto-ranging between these, to increase the dynamic range while retaining low noise. For diffuse scattering techniques, such as time-resolved X-ray solution scattering, where the shape of the scattering pattern largely does not change between exposures, a fixed mix of different gain modes offers many of the same advantages as auto-ranging. We find that configuring individual ASICs in separate gain modes does not impact the intensity linearity of the gain response and has a limited effect on the effective dynamic range in regions with different gain mode settings while avoiding the complexities of auto-ranging. Small (<5%) non-linear gain contributions arise when pixels on the same ASIC are configured in different gain modes. We present a configuration scheme that is designed to select the optimal mixed gain configuration to minimize effects of saturation in the high-/medium-gain region, while maximizing the number of pixels with higher gain to improve the signal-to-noise ratio.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heat metrics and thresholds reshape population exposure and inequality signals

Extreme heat is intensifying worldwide, yet estimates of heat hazard and exposure inequality depend on both the heat metric and how extreme days are defined. Using summer 2022 across the Mediterranean, we quantify population heat exposure with four metrics—land surface temperature (LST), air temperature (Ta), heat index (HI), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)—under absolute (fixed-value) and relative (anomaly-based) thresholds. Under absolute thresholds, total heat exposure differs by more than two orders of magnitude across metrics (31.3 billion person-days for Ta vs 0.3 billion for HI). Geographic hotspots also diverge: WBGT concentrates in humid coastal North Africa (e.g. the Nile Delta), whereas Ta and LST are more widespread. Under relative thresholds, exposure totals converge and cross-metric hotspot agreement increases (e.g. Ta–WBGT top-tercile overlap increases from 10.7% to 29.0%), shifting hotspots toward densely populated southern Europe. Crucially, the exposure–deprivation relationship also reverses across threshold frameworks: absolute thresholds concentrate exposure in more deprived North Africa and the Middle East, whereas relative thresholds shift the burden toward less-deprived European cities. This sensitivity is decision-relevant: city rankings based on WBGT exposure duration are almost completely reordered when switching threshold frameworks. Threshold choice therefore systematically reshapes hotspot patterns and inequality signals. Reporting both absolute and relative exposures can reveal hidden hotspots and support more targeted heat-risk monitoring and intervention planning.

Mediterranean↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Electric Vehicle Range and Charging Needs: Interactions Between Ambient Temperature, Commute Patterns, and State-of-Charge Usage

Electric vehicle (EV) performance can vary substantially under real-world operating conditions, particularly due to ambient temperature effects on energy consumption, battery behavior, and thermal management requirements. This study quantifies how weather conditions, daily driving patterns, and State-of-Charge (SOC) usage strategies jointly influence EV driving range, charging frequency, and overall energy efficiency. A detailed and experimentally validated Autonomie vehicle model is developed, integrating a powertrain, a mono-zonal cabin model, and a battery electro-thermal model. Three battery sizes (200-, 300-, and 400-mile homologated ranges) are assessed across five commute profiles (20–200 miles) and six ambient temperatures (−18 °C to 50 °C), including scenarios with and without preconditioning. Results show that extreme temperatures could significantly decrease the maximum achievable range by up to 55% in cold conditions (−18 °C) and 40% in hot conditions (50 °C), relative to moderate conditions. Larger battery packs retain a greater fraction of their nominal range under thermal stress, while smaller packs experience sharper relative penalties due to the higher contribution of thermal loads to total energy demand. The analysis further demonstrates that limiting operation to partial SOC windows (e.g., 80–20%), a common real-world practice, significantly reduces achievable range and increases charging frequency, particularly in cold weather. Thermal preconditioning while plugged in is shown to mitigate these effects for short trips, reducing energy consumption by up to 31% in hot conditions and 7% in cold conditions. The findings demonstrate how climate, SOC usage behavior, and thermal management jointly shape the practical driving capability of EVs, highlighting the importance of efficient thermal management and realistic user charging strategies for ensuring reliable EV operation across diverse climatic scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deciphering the Role of Total Water Storage Anomalies in Mediating Regional Flooding

Regional floods result from various flood generation mechanisms. Traditional analyses mainly link flooding to extreme rainfall, with limited input from soil moisture. Total water storage (TWS) is a holistic measure of basin wetness, including additional storage components from surface water, snow, and groundwater. Utilizing a new 5-day Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its Follow On (GRACE(-FO)) data set, we investigated the linkage between short-term TWS anomaly (TWSA) and regional flooding. The 5-day TWSA solutions revealed flood signals missed by monthly TWSA solutions. Global basins exhibit distinct storage-discharge co-evolution patterns, offering new insights into flood mechanisms and propensity. Our bivariate event analyses show the annual maximum river discharges co-occur more often with the TWSA maxima than with precipitation in many basins. Further analyses revealed TWSA's time-lagged effect on river discharge, particularly in basins susceptible to floods triggered by saturation-excess runoff. The 5-day TWSA provides a new source of information for enhancing global flood preparedness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-precision phase control of an optical lattice with up to 50 dB noise suppression

An optical lattice is a periodic light crystal constructed from the standing-wave interference patterns of laser beams. It can be used to store and manipulate quantum degenerate atoms and is an ideal platform for the quantum simulation of many-body physics. A principal feature is that optical lattices are flexible and possess a variety of multidimensional geometries with modifiable band structure. An even richer landscape emerges when control functions can be applied to the lattice by modulation of the position or amplitude with Floquet driving. However, the desire of realizing high-modulation bandwidths while preserving extreme lattice stability has been difficult to achieve. In this paper, we demonstrate an effective solution that consists of overlapping two counterpropagating lattice beams and controlling the phase and intensity of each with independent acousto-optic modulators. Our phase controller mixes sampled light from both lattice beams with a common optical reference. This dual heterodyne locking method allows exquisite determination of the lattice position, while also removing parasitic phase noise accrued as the beams travel along separate paths. Here, we report up to 50 dB suppression in lattice phase noise in the 0.1–1 Hz band, along with significant suppression spanning more than 4 decades of frequency. The absolute phase diffusion of the lattice position is only 10 Å when integrated over 10 s. This method permits precise, high-bandwidth modulation (greater than 50 kHz) of the optical lattice intensity and phase. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach by executing intricate time-varying phase profiles for atom interferometry.

Atom interferometry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cooling Mixed A-Site Halide Perovskites: Impact of Temperature on Optical and Structural Properties

The widespread utilization of perovskite-based photovoltaics requires probing both the structural and optical properties under extreme operating conditions to gain a holistic understanding of the material behavior under stressors. Here, in this study, we investigate the temperature-dependent behavior of mixed A-site cation lead triiodide perovskite thin films (85% methylammonium and 15% formamidinium) in the range from 300 to 20 K. Through a combination of optical and structural techniques, we find that the tetragonal-to-orthorhombic phase transition occurs at similar to 110 K for this perovskite composition, as indicated by the change in the diffraction pattern. With decreasing temperature, the quantum yield increases with a concurrent elongation of the carrier lifetimes, indicating suppression of nonradiative recombination pathways. Interestingly, in contrast to single A-site cation perovskites, an additional optical transition appears in the absorption spectrum when the phase transition is approached, which is also reflected in the emission spectrum. We propose that the splitting of the optical absorption and emission is due to local segregation of the mixed cation perovskite during the phase transition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2026

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗