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Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.
An Applied Risk Assessment Methodology for Identification, Prioritization, and Mitigation of Adverse Events from Emerging Neurotechnology
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Enhanced Identification of Snow Melt and Refreeze Events From Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Using Air Temperature
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The identification of solar He-3-rich events and the study of particle acceleration at the sun
Kilometric radio observations are to associate type III radio bursts with solar He-3-rich events and to identify and study the sources of those events at the sun and the transport of the particles outward toward earth. The events exhibit an impulsive behavior that earns them a natural role in the event classification scheme based upon the time scale of the particle acceleration process. Multiple He-3-rich events are observed frequently from a single active region where they provide a convenient signature to test theories of particle storage and transport. These multiple events act as impulsive probes of the condition of the interplanetary medium. Their profiles contrast with the source-acceleration-induced profiles of the long-duration events from the same active region that are interspersed among them.
SREDD: Framework to facilitate MLopS related to discovery of commercial satellite data
SREDD or Super Resolution Event Detection Dashboard is a comprehensive data discovery platform designed to facilitate the identification of multiple events. It is equipped to handle data of varying spatial resolutions and from various vendors, acquired by NASA’s Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program, making it a convenient centralized hub for searching event-related information.
Performance of a large area photon detector for rare event search applications
We present the design and characterization of a large-area Cryogenic PhotoDetector designed for active particle identification in rare event searches, such as neutrinoless double beta decay and dark matter experiments. The detector consists of a 45.6 cm 2 surface area by a 1-mm-thick 10.6 g Si wafer. It is instrumented with a distributed network of Quasiparticle-trap-assisted Electrothermal feedback Transition-edge sensors with superconducting critical temperature T c = 41.5 mK to measure a thermal phonons released from interactions with photons.
Strong lensing of high-energy neutrinos
Here, we consider the effects of strong gravitational lensing by galaxy-scale deflectors on the observations of high-energy ( E $\gg$ GeV ) neutrinos (HENs). For HENs at cosmological distances, the optical depth for multiple imaging is ~10 –3 , implying that while we do not expect any multiply imaged HENs with present samples, next-generation experiments should be able to detect the first such event. We then present the distribution of expected time delays to aid in the identification of such events, in combination with directional and energy information. In order to assist in the evaluation of HEN production mechanisms, we illustrate how lensing affects the observed number counts for a variety of intrinsic luminosity functions of the source population. Finally, we see that the lensing effects on the cosmic neutrino background flux calculation would be negligible by taking kiloparsec-scale jets as an example.
Alsep data processing: How we processed Apollo Lunar Seismic Data
The Apollo lunar seismic station network gathered data continuously at a rate of 3 x 10 to the 8th power bits per day for nearly eight years until the termination in September, 1977. The data were processed and analyzed using a PDP-15 minicomputer. On the average, 1500 long-period seismic events were detected yearly. Automatic event detection and identification schemes proved unsuccessful because of occasional high noise levels and, above all, the risk of overlooking unusual natural events. The processing procedures finally settled on consist of first plotting all the data on a compressed time scale, visually picking events from the plots, transferring event data to separate sets of tapes and performing detailed analyses using the latter. Many problems remain especially for automatically processing extraterrestrial seismic signals.
How we processed Apollo lunar seismic data
The Apollo lunar seismic station network gathered data continuously at a rate of 3 x 10 to the 8th bits per day for nearly eight years until termination in September, 1977. The data were processed and analyzed using a PDP-15 minicomputer. On average, 1500 long-period seismic events were detected yearly. Automatic event detection and identification schemes proved unsuccessful because of occasional high noise levels and, above all, the risk of overlooking unusual natural events. The processing procedures which were finally chosen consist of plotting all the data on a compressed time scale, visually picking events from the plots, transferring event data to separate sets of tapes and performing detailed analyses using the latter. Many problems remain, especially in the automatic processing of extraterrestrial seismic signals.
Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery
NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.
A search for microscopic black holes, string balls, and sphalerons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV
A search for microscopic black holes, string balls, and electroweak sphalerons using proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV recorded with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC during the 2016–2018 data taking, and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 , is presented. Two search strategies based on control samples in data are used. Model-independent limits on the cross section of physics phenomena with multiple energetic jets, leptons, and photons are set using a method that relies on the shape invariance of the scalar sum of the transverse momenta of all objects in the event. Model-dependent limits on black hole and sphaleron production are set using a newly introduced method that has been developed for the identification of collider events with distinct kinematic features by separating them into classes based on phase space proximity. In the context of models with large extra dimensions, semiclassical black holes and string balls with masses below 8.4–11.4 TeV and 9.0–10.7 TeV, respectively, are excluded at 95% confidence level, significantly extending the reach beyond previous searches. Results of a dedicated search for electroweak sphalerons are used to derive an upper limit of 0.0034 at 95% confidence level on the fraction of quark-quark interactions, with a center-of-mass energy above the nominal sphaleron transition energy threshold of 9 TeV, that result in a sphaleron transition.
Pandora-based muon neutrino disappearance search in the SBN program with 1muonNp quasi-elastic like channel
The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab aims to perform a definitive search for light sterile neutrinos using multiple liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. We present the status of an analysis of muon neutrino charged-current interactions in two SBN detectors (SBND and ICARUS), selecting fully contained events with one muon and at least one proton in the final state, inspired by the recent ICARUS standalone results. This topology-driven selection reduces dependence on neutrino interaction cross-section modeling while preserving high statistics and good neutrino energy resolution, enabled by robust reconstruction and particle identification. Fully contained events enable precise kinematic reconstruction and support relative measurements between detectors, directly addressing the core goals of the SBN program. A detailed evaluation of systematic uncertainties is currently underway, with the objective of reducing the dominant systematics to the percent level. The current status of this analysis, with a particular focus on the event selection performance, will be presented in this poster.
Developing new analysis tools for near surface radio-based neutrino detectors
The ARIANNA experiment is an Askaryan radio detector designed to measure high-energy neutrino induced cascades within the Antarctic ice. Ultra-high-energy neutrinos above 10 16 eV have an extremely low flux, so experimental data captured at trigger level need to be classified correctly to retain as much neutrino signal as possible. We first describe two new physics-based neutrino selection methods, or "cuts", (the updown and dipole cut) that extend the previously published analysis to a specialized ARIANNA station with 8 antenna channels, which is double the number used in the prior analysis. For a standard trigger with a threshold signal to noise ratio at 4.4, the new cuts produce a neutrino efficiency of > 95% per station-year of operation, while rejecting 99.93% of the background (corresponding to 53 remaining experimental background events). When the new cuts are combined with a previously developed cut using neutrino waveform templates, all background is removed at no change of efficiency. In addition, the neutrino efficiency is extrapolated to 1,000 station-years of operation, obtaining 91%. This work then introduces a new selection method (the deep learning cut) to augment the identification of neutrino events by using deep learning methods and compares the efficiency to the physics-based analysis. The deep learning cut gives 99% signal efficiency per station-year of operation while rejecting 99.997% of the background (corresponding to 2 remaining experimental background events), which are subsequently removed by the waveform template cut at no significant change in efficiency. Here the results of the deep learning cut were verified using measured cosmic rays which shows that the simulations do not introduce artifacts with respect to experimental data. The paper demonstrates that the background rejection and signal efficiency of near surface antennas meets the requirements of a large scale future array, as considered in baseline design of the radio component of IceCube-Gen2.
Survival of Flux Transfer Event (FTE) Flux Ropes Far Along the Tail Magnetopause
During intervals of southward IMF, magnetic reconnection can result in the formation of flux transfer events (FTEs) on the dayside magnetopause which travel along the magnetopause in the anti-sunward direction. Of particular interest is their fate and the role they play transporting solar wind plasma into the magnetosphere. We present the discovery of FTEs far along the distant tail magnetopause (x = 67 Earth radii) using data from ARTEMIS on the dusk flank magnetopause under southward/duskward IMF conditions. The identification of several events is further supported by excellent fits to a force-free flux rope model. The axis of each structure is principally north-south, i.e., perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line. Simultaneous observations by THEMIS on the dayside magnetopause indicate that FTEs are being produced there, although perhaps 2-4 times smaller in size. The convection time from the dayside magnetopause to ARTEMIS is 30 min, and the FTEs have a flux content comparable to those typically observed on the dayside magnetopause, indicating that these features are in quasi-equilibrium as they are convected downtail. By considering the relative orientations of the FTEs observed by THEMIS and ARTEMIS, the magnetic field geometry is consistent with the FTEs being produced on the dayside magnetopause along an extended X-line in the presence of IMF By and bending as they are convected to the flanks.
A Data-Driven Approach for High-Impedance Fault Localization in Distribution Systems
Accurate and quick identification of high-impedance faults (HIFs) is critical for the reliable operation of distribution systems. Unlike other faults in power grids, HIFs are very difficult to detect by conventional overcurrent relays due to the low fault current. Although HIFs can be affected by various factors, the voltage-current characteristics can substantially imply how the system responds to the disturbance and thus provides opportunities to effectively localize HIFs. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach for the identification of HIF events. To tackle the nonlinearity of the voltage-current trajectory, first, we formulate optimization problems to approximate the trajectory with piecewise functions. Then we collect the function features of all segments as inputs and use the support vector machine approach to efficiently identify HIFs at different locations. Numerical studies on the IEEE 123-node test feeder demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed approach for real-time HIF identification.
A Data-Driven Approach for High-Impedance Fault Localization in Distribution Systems: Preprint
Accurate and quick identification of high-impedance faults (HIFs) is critical for the reliable operation of distribution systems. Unlike other faults in power grids, HIFs are very difficult to detect by conventional overcurrent relays due to the low fault current. Although HIFs can be affected by various factors, the voltage-current characteristics can substantially imply how the system responds to the disturbance and thus provides opportunities to effectively localize HIFs. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach for the identification of HIF events. To tackle the nonlinearity of the voltage-current trajectory, first, we formulate optimization problems to approximate the trajectory with piecewise functions. Then we collect the function features of all segments as inputs and use the support vector machine approach to efficiently identify HIFs at different locations. Numerical studies on the IEEE 123-node test feeder demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed approach for real-time HIF identification.