Integrated machine learning models of event detection and source location identification for fault imaging using raw continuous IBDP microseismic data
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Lizama Molina, Daniel Andres↗
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Results for “event data models”
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Validation of Maui PSCAD Model: Motivation, Methodology, and Lessons Learned: Preprint
As power systems become increasingly dependent on inverter-based resources, the dominant physical and control interactions that determine system stability may no longer be accurately captured in positive sequence dynamic simulation tools; electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations may be needed. This paper describes the process of creating and validating an EMT model of the entire Maui island transmission system in PSCAD software. The model is validated against the utility's PSSE model and against field data for an event that consisted of a single-phase fault followed by a generation trip. The methodology and lessons learned are summarized here.
41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
Equation of state for He bubbles in W and model of He bubble growth and bursting near W{100} surfaces derived from molecular dynamics simulations
Abstract Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed to derive an equation of state (EOS) for helium (He) bubbles in tungsten (W) and to study the growth of He bubbles under a W(100) surface until they burst. We study the growth as a function of the initial nucleation depth of the bubbles. During growth, successive loop-punching events are observed, accompanied by shifts in the depth of the bubble towards the surface. Subsequently, the MD data are used to derive models that describe the conditions that cause the loop punching and bursting events. Simulations have been performed at 500, 933, 1500, 2000, and 2500 K to fit the parameters in the models. To compute the pressure in the bubble at the loop punching and bursting events from the models, we derive an EOS for He bubbles in tungsten with an accompanying volume model to compute the bubble volume for a given number of vacancies ( $$N_\text {V}$$ N V ), He atoms ( $$N_\text {He}$$ N He ), and temperature ( T ). To derive the bubble EOS, we firstly derive the EOS for a free He gas. The derived free-gas EOS can accurately predict all MD data included in the analysis (which span up to 54 GPa at 2500 K). Subsequently, the bubble EOS is derived based on the free-gas EOS by correcting the gas density to account for the interaction between He and W atoms. The EOS for the bubbles is fitted to data from MD simulations of He bubbles in bulk W that span a wide range of gas density and sizes up to about 3 nm in diameter. The pressure of subsurface bubbles at the loop punching events as calculated using the bubble-EOS and the volume model agrees well with the pressure obtained directly from the MD simulations. In the loop punching model, for bubbles consisting of $$N_\text {V}$$ N V vacancies and $$N_\text {He}$$ N He helium atoms, the $$N_\text {He}/N_\text {V}$$ N He / N V ratio that causes the event, the resulting increase in $$N_\text {V}$$ N V , and the associated shift of the bubble depth are formulated as a function of $$N_\text {V}$$ N V and T . In the bursting model, a bubble must simultaneously reach a certain depth and $$N_\text {He}/N_\text {V}$$ N He / N V ratio in order to burst. The burst depth and $$N_\text {He}/N_\text {V}$$ N He / N V are also modeled as a function of $$N_\text {V}$$ N V and T . The majority of the loop punching events occur at bubble pressures between 20 and 60 GPa, depending on the bubble size and temperature. The larger the bubble and the higher the temperature, the lower the bubble pressure. Furthermore, our results indicate that at a higher temperature, a bubble can burst from a deeper region.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Improved Muon Energy Estimation Using a Detailed Model of Multiple Coulomb Scattering in the MicroBooNE LArTPC
We present an improved technique for estimating a muon's energy by measuring the deflections along its path inside the MicroBooNE detector from multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS). This approach implements several innovations that better capture detector non-idealizations compared to previous MCS-based muon energy estimators. As a result, it achieves improved resolution, reduced bias, and better data-model agreement. Using model simulation, for fully contained events the estimated bias is within 1\% and the estimated resolution narrows from 10\% to 4.3\% as muon energy increases from 0.1\,GeV to 2\,GeV. For events with particles exiting the detector volume, at least a meter of reconstructed muon track, and a muon energy below 2\,GeV, the estimated bias is less than 2\% and the estimated resolution varies from 7\% to 17\% over muon energy. These demonstrate significant improvements over the performance of previous work using an MCS-based energy estimator at MicroBooNE~\cite{mcs_2017}, which exhibited approximately twice worse resolution and a bias of 20\% over the same energy region. Data-model goodness-of-fit studies are used to validate the estimator's performance on data, showing good agreement within model uncertainties.
Cooper-Troendle, London [U. Pittsburgh (main); Fer↗
Small Seismic Events in Oklahoma Detected and Located by Machine Learning–Based Models
A complete earthquake catalog is essential to understand earthquake nucleation and fault stress. Following the Gutenberg–Richter law, smaller, unseen seismic events dominate the earthquake catalog and are invaluable for revealing the fault state. The published earthquake catalogs, however, typically miss a significant number of small earthquakes. Part of the reason is due to a limitation of conventional algorithms, which can hardly extract small signals from background noise in a reliable and efficient way. To address this challenge, we utilized a machine learning method and developed new models to detect and locate seismic events. These models are efficient in processing a large amount of seismic data and extracting small seismic events. We applied our method to seismic data in Oklahoma, United States, and detected ~14 times more earthquakes compared with the standard Oklahoma Geological Survey catalog. The rich information contained in the new catalog helps better understand the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Measurements of jet cross-section ratios in 13 TeV proton-proton collisions with ATLAS
Measurements of jet cross-section ratios between inclusive bins of jet multiplicity are performed in 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions with √s = 13 TeV center-of-mass energy, recorded with the ATLAS detector at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider. These ratios are constructed from double-differential cross-section measurements that are made in bins of jet multiplicity and other observables that are sensitive the energy scale and angular distribution of radiation due to the strong interaction in the final state. Additionally, the scalar sum of the two leading jets’ transverse momenta is measured triple differentially, in bins of the third jet’s transverse momentum and of jet multiplicity. These measurements are unfolded to account for acceptance and detector-related effects. The measured distributions are used to construct ratios of the inclusive jet-multiplicity bins, which have been shown to be sensitive to the strong coupling Formula Presented while being less sensitive than other observables to systematic uncertainties and parton distribution functions. The measured distributions are compared with state-of-the-art QCD calculations, including next-to-next-to-leading-order predictions for two- and three-jet events. These predictions are generally found to model the data well and perform best in bins with a modest requirement on the third jet’s transverse momentum. Significant differences between data and Monte Carlo predictions are observed in events with large rapidity gaps and invariant masses of the leading jet pair. Studies leading to reduced jet energy scale uncertainties significantly improve the precision of this work and are documented herein.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models
Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model
Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment
A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.
Iyer, A↗
Detecting Large Explosions With Machine Learning Models Trained on Synthetic Infrasound Data
Explosions produce low-frequency acoustic (infrasound) waves capable of propagating globally, but the spatio-temporal variability of the atmosphere makes detecting events difficult. Machine learning (ML) is well-suited to identify the subtle and nonlinear patterns in explosion infrasound signals, but a previous lack of ground-truth data inhibited training of generalized models. We introduce a physics-based method that propagates infrasound sources through realistic atmospheres to create 28,000 synthetic events, which are used to train ML classifiers. A simple artificial neural network and modern temporal convolutional network discriminate synthetic events from background noise with >90% accuracy and, more importantly, successfully identify the majority of real-world explosion signals recorded during the Humming Road Runner experiment. ML models trained entirely on physics-based synthetics advance explosion detection capabilities and make ML more viable to related fields lacking training data.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)
Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Search for New Physics in Jet Multiplicity Patterns of Multilepton Events at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV
A first search for beyond the standard model physics in jet multiplicity patterns of multilepton events is presented, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 of 13 TeV proton-proton collisions recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC. The search uses observed jet multiplicity distributions in one-, two-, and four-lepton events to explore possible enhancements in jet production rate in three-lepton events with and without bottom quarks. The data are found to be consistent with the standard model expectation. The results are interpreted in terms of supersymmetric production of electroweak chargino-neutralino superpartners with cascade decays terminating in prompt hadronic 𝑅-parity violating interactions.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Understanding Low Level Jets in the US Atlantic Offshore
Low level jets (LLJs) in the atmosphere exhibit a local windspeed maximum in the boundary layer, with positive shear beneath the jet and negative shear above the jet. Wind turbines tend to experience increased loads with varying wake recovery characteristics in the presence of an LLJ, therefore understanding the mechanism and impact of LLJs is crucial to wind energy development. The US Mid-Atlantic offshore region is a huge potential wind energy resource, yet LLJs in this area are poorly understood. In particular, the coastal offshore environment does not exhibit the same diurnal cycle that leads to strong LLJs in the well-characterized Great Plains region. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) plus lidar buoy data to identify case studies for LLJ events in 2020 in the New York Bight. A reduced order model is presented to explain the onset of these events based on the competing effects of baroclinicity and eddy diffusivity. Finally, using the macro-scale WRF, we drive a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) to generate a more detailed characterization of the Marine Boundary Layer during an LLJ. Gaining a better understanding of LLJs and their impacts on offshore wind in the mid-Atlantic is crucial for a transition toward renewable energy.
atmospheric boundary layer↗
Unsupervised Power System Event Detection and Classification Using Unlabeled PMU Data
This paper proposes a novel data-driven power system event detection and classification method based on 5TB of actual PMU measurements collected from the US western interconnect. Firstly, a set of comprehensive power quality rules are proposed to pre-filter the raw data and extract the regions of interest (ROI). Six distinct event categories are defined and corresponding patterns are chosen as references. Meanwhile, detailed characteristics of patterns are summarized to enhance our understanding of the actual events. Then, the time-independent feature vectors are generated by extracting the statistical, temporal, and spectral features from the raw time-series data. Furthermore, an ensemble model is proposed to cluster the events by combining multiple K-means clustering models using a voting strategy. Besides, both system-level and PMU-level clustering models are developed. The accuracy and robustness of the event detection method are further improved through interactive evaluation of the two-level clustering results. This paper summarizes the actual characteristics of each event category and provides a reliable basis for accurate label generation. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed event detection and classification method.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Unsupervised Power System Event Detection and Classification Using Unlabeled PMU Data
This paper proposes a novel data-driven power system event detection and classification method based on 5TB of actual PMU measurements collected from the US western interconnect. Firstly, a set of comprehensive power quality rules are proposed to pre-filter the raw data and extract the regions of interest (ROI). Six distinct event categories are defined and corresponding patterns are chosen as references. Meanwhile, detailed characteristics of patterns are summarized to enhance our understanding of the actual events. Then, the time-independent feature vectors are generated by extracting the statistical, temporal, and spectral features from the raw time-series data. Furthermore, an ensemble model is proposed to cluster the events by combining multiple K-means clustering models using a voting strategy. Besides, both system-level and PMU-level clustering models are developed. The accuracy and robustness of the event detection method are further improved through interactive evaluation of the two-level clustering results. This paper summarizes the actual characteristics of each event category and provides a reliable basis for accurate label generation. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed event detection and classification method.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Characterization of Extreme Hydroclimate Events in Earth System Models using ML/AI
Focal Area(s): (1) We put forward the concepts of data assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization and unsupervised learning applied to downscale information within Earth System Models (ESMs). (2) We discuss predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection) to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs. The AI-based models will run five-six order of magnitude times faster, yet will provide similar accuracy, allowing us to provide range bounds on uncertainty faster and thus enabling faster extreme event identification. (3) Further, we consider the insight gleaned from complex data (observed/simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Describing hadronization via histories and observables for Monte-Carlo event reweighting
We introduce a novel method for extracting a fragmentation model directly from experimental data without requiring an explicit parametric form, called Histories and Observables for Monte-Carlo Event Reweighting (HOMER), consisting of three steps: the training of a classifier between simulation and data, the inference of single fragmentation weights, and the calculation of the weight for the full hadronization chain. We illustrate the use of HOMER on a simplified hadronization problem, a q\bar{q} q q ‾ string fragmenting into pions, and extract a modified Lund string fragmentation function f(z) f ( z ) . We then demonstrate the use of HOMER on three types of experimental data: (i) binned distributions of high-level observables, (ii) unbinned event-by-event distributions of these observables, and (iii) full particle cloud information. After demonstrating that f(z) f ( z ) can be extracted from data (the inverse of hadronization), we also show that, at least in this limited setup, the fidelity of the extracted f(z) f ( z ) suffers only limited loss when moving from (i) to (ii) to (iii). Public code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements
In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗