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At least 109 records · Page 6

Lidar Measurements and High-Resolution Mesoscale Modeling of Coastally Trapped Disturbances off the Coast of California

Coastally Trapped disturbances (CTDs) are shifts in wind direction from the pre-dominant direction to equatorward to poleward for a period of time. These CTDs occur during the warm season off the California coast and impact coastal weather conditions and planned offshore wind plants. This study assesses the characteristics of CTD events as observed by lidar and other offshore buoys, then evaluates the ability of modeling systems to capture the correct characteristics, leveraging model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational modeling system and the NOW-23 (National Offshore Wind) model dataset. CTDs were analyzed for October 2020 and May through to October of 2021, identifying 18 unique CTD events, confirmed by a nearby National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy. The HRRR model captured most of these events, but the NOW-23 model output contained only 12 events. Composites of the wind, temperature, and pressure perturbations pre-, during, and post-event demonstrated the diminishment in wind speed, particularly for the alongshore component. Although the NOW-23 model captured the alongshore wind component and pressure perturbations well, the cross-shore wind component and temperature perturbations varied substantially. When the turbulent kinetic energy deviation and wind shear was positive across all levels pre-event, the NOW-23 modeling system was less likely to capture the CTD event. In contrast, the events that were captured by the model tended to have negative wind shear aloft pre-event.

coastal meteorology↗

Measurements of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow with seven years of IceCube data: Comparison with the Solar cycle and magnetic field models

Observations of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow have been proven as a valuable diagnostic for the assessment of solar magnetic field models. Here, seven years of IceCube data are compared to solar activity and solar magnetic field models. A quantitative comparison of solar magnetic field models with IceCube data on the event rate level is performed for the first time. Additionally, a first energy-dependent analysis is presented and compared to recent predictions. We use seven years of IceCube data for the moon and the Sun and compare them to simulations on data rate level. The simulations are performed for the geometrical shadow hypothesis for the moon and the Sun and for a cosmic-ray propagation model governed by the solar magnetic field for the case of the Sun. We find that a linearly decreasing relationship between Sun shadow strength and solar activity is preferred over a constant relationship at the 6.4σ level. We test two commonly used models of the coronal magnetic field, both combined with a Parker spiral, by modeling cosmic-ray propagation in the solar magnetic field. Both models predict a weakening of the shadow in times of high solar activity as it is also visible in the data. We find tensions with the data on the order of 3σ for both models, assuming only statistical uncertainties. The magnetic field model CSSS fits the data slightly better than the PFSS model. This is generally consistent with what is found previously by the Tibet AS-γ Experiment; a deviation of the data from the two models is, however, not significant at this point. Regarding the energy dependence of the Sun shadow, we find indications that the shadowing effect increases with energy during times of high solar activity, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Model-independent search for the presence of new physics in events including H → γγ with $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV pp data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC

A model-independent search for new physics leading to final states containing a Higgs boson, with a mass of 125.09 GeV, decaying to a pair of photons is performed with 139 fb -1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV $pp$ collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. This search examines 22 final states categorized by the objects that are produced in association with the Higgs boson. These objects include isolated electrons or muons, hadronically decaying $τ$-leptons, additional photons, missing transverse momentum, and hadronic jets, as well as jets that are tagged as containing a $b$-hadron. No significant excesses above Standard Model expectations are observed and limits on the production cross section at 95% confidence level are set. Detector efficiencies are reported for all 22 signal regions, which can be used to convert detector-level cross-section limits reported in this paper to particle-level cross-section constraints.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impulsive acceleration and scatter-free transport of about 1 MeV per nucleon ions in (He-3)-rich solar particle events

Impulsive solar energetic particle (SEP) events are studied to: (1) describe a distinct class of SEP ion events observed in interplanetary space, and (2) test models of focused transport through detailed comparisons of numerical model prediction with the data. An attempt will also be made to describe the transport and scattering properties of the interplanetary medium during the times these events are observed and to derive source injection profiles in these events. ISEE 3 and Helios 1 magnetic field and plasma data are used to locate the approximate coronal connection points of the spacecraft to organize the particle anisotropy data and to constrain some free parameters in the modeling of flare events.

Mason, G. M.↗

Applying Machine Learning to Predict Alaskan Ionospheric Irregularities

In this work several machine-learning (ML) techniques for predicting ionospheric irregularities in the northern auroral zone were tested. The techniques include Ridge Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM), Classification Neural Network (CNN), Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (ACNN), and LSTM Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (LACNN). These techniques were tested with the rate of total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) data collected during 2008 and 2009 from a geodetic station in Fairbanks, Alaska (64.98°N, 147.50°W), which is in the auroral zone. Using ROTI data with the ML techniques, experiments were conducted to reach two goals: (1) examine what space weather measurements present good correlation with ROTI so that they may be helpful in ML-based prediction of ionospheric irregularities in the polar region; (2) predict ROTI hours and days ahead by training the neural network models with historical ROTI data alone. The Ridge Regression experiments indicate that a combination of measurements of local geomagnetic horizontal components, geomagnetic SYM-H index, 3-hour Kp and ap indices, and F10.7 solar flux index appears to be more correlated to the single-site ROTI measurements than other parameters. The neural network (NN) experiments show that although the LACNN model allows for predictions of non-irregularity and irregularity conditions defined by ROTI levels up to 3 hours in advance, with an overall accuracy ≥ 92%, a number of irregularity events can still be missed. Hence, further development is needed to reduce the number of missed events. In this paper, the models, data processing, model performance, prediction results, and potential applications are presented.

Pi, Xiaoqing↗

Universal Utility Data Exchange (UUDEX) - Workflow Design - Rev 1

This workflow design document describes the process of establishing a Universal Utility Data Exchange (UUDEX) Connection between two or more UUDEX Endpoints. The existing processes required to establish a data link using Inter Control Center Communications Protocol (ICCP) are very time consuming, from both the perspectives of effort and calendar time. The intent of UUDEX is to provide a more streamlined alternative. The UUDEX Workflow is also used to establish UUDEX Connections to exchange data other than that found in traditional ICCP data exchanges such as exchanges of power system model files, security events and mitigations, disturbance reports, and market data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evolving Multi-hazard Machine Learning Modeling for Advanced Risk-Informed Infrastructure Resilience Assessment

The socioeconomic impacts of pipeline incidents have escalated over the past three decades, revealing the limitation of traditional risk modeling methods when applied to extensive pipeline networks. This research aims to develop machine learning (ML) models that effectively identify, rank, and predict the diverse hazards and socioeconomic consequences associated with pipeline incidents. Utilizing historical data on pipeline incidents alongside weather and oceanographic data from the 1980s onward, the Houston metropolitan area serves as a testbed for the proposed methodologies. The research segments the combined datasets into three consecutive periods, demonstrating the efficacy of the updated model in predicting future events, particularly concerning precipitation rate data. Despite the challenges posed by a relatively limited dataset, local-level ML modeling offers valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of multiple hazards that contribute to pipeline incidents. These findings hold significant implications for future research, particularly in understanding and mitigating risks in various locations across the Gulf Coast and other coastal regions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

Rohloff, Kurt↗

A deep-learning based raw waveform region-of-interest finder for the liquid argon time projection chamber

The liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology has an excellent capability to measure properties of low-energy neutrinos produced by the sun and supernovae and to look for exotic physics at very low energies. In order to achieve those physics goals, it is crucial to identify and reconstruct signals in the waveforms recorded on each TPC wire. In this work, we report on a novel algorithm based on a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) to look for the region-of-interest (ROI) in raw waveforms. We test this algorithm using data from the ArgoNeuT experiment in conjunction with an improved noise mitigation procedure and a more realistic data-driven noise model for simulated events. This deep-learning ROI finder shows promising performance in extracting small signals and gives an efficiency approximately twice that of the traditional algorithm in the low energy region of ~0.03–0.1 MeV. This method offers great potential to explore low-energy physics using LArTPCs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Characterization of Ring Wave Spectra for Natural Rain: Measurements and Model for Remote Sensing Applications

Ring waves generated by natural rains from 1 to 100 mm/hr were measured in a small tank located in a field. Time series were obtained: (a) from a wire capacitance probe that measured surface elevation, (b) from an optical gauge that measured rain rates R, (c) from an anemometer that measured wind speeds and (d) from a 13.5 GHz scatterometer (w polarization, and 30 degree incidence angle). Ring wave frequency spectra are computed from the surface elevation data for each minute of rain. All the spectra have a similar shape, with a maximum near 5 Hz, and with a more rapid decay towards higher frequencies than towards lower frequencies. A log-Gaussian spectral model provides a useful representation of these data and analysis of the model coefficients shows that the peak frequency and bandwidth are approximately constant, but the magnitude increases as R increases, Additionally, the normalized radar cross section from the scatterometer varies approximately linearly with the spectral line corresponding to the Bragg-wavelength, so together the log-Gaussian ring wave model and the Bragg scattering theory should be useful for a broad range of applications. These findings can be used to help interpret remote sensing data during rain events and to guide model development for radar scattering from rain roughened seas.

Bliven, L.↗

Machine Learning Using a Simple Feature for Detecting Multiple Types of Events From PMU Data

This paper describes simple and efficient machine learning (ML) methods for efficiently detecting multiple types of power system events captured by PMUs scarcely placed in a large power grid. It uses a single feature from each PMU based on a rectangle area enclosing the event in a given data window. This single feature is sufficient to enable commonly used ML models to detect different types of events quickly and accurately. The feature is used by five ML models on four different data-window sizes. The results indicated a tradeoff between the execution speed and detection accuracy in variety of data-window size choices. Here, the proposed method is insensitive to most data quality issues typical for data from field PMUs, and thus it does not require major data cleansing efforts prior to feature extraction.

Big data↗

Classification and Localization of Fracture-Hit Events in Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Rate with Convolutional Neural Networks

Summary Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has been used in the oil and gas industry as an advanced technology for surveillance and diagnostics. Operators use DAS to monitor hydraulic fracturing activities, examine well stimulation efficacy, and estimate complex fracture system geometries. Particularly, low-frequency DAS can detect geomechanical events such as fracture hits because hydraulic fractures propagate and create strain rate variations in the rock. Analysis of DAS data today is mostly done post-job and subject to interpretation methods. However, the continuous and dense data stream generated live by DAS poses the opportunity for more efficient and accurate real-time data-driven analysis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning-based workflow that can identify and locate fracture-hit events in simulated strain rate responses correlated with low-frequency DAS data. In this paper, “fracture hit” refers to a hydraulic fracture originating from a stimulated well intersecting an offset well. We start with building a single fracture propagation model to produce strain rate patterns observed at a hypothetical monitoring well. This model is used to generate two sets of strain rate responses with one set containing fracture-hit events. The labeled synthetic data are then used to train a custom convolutional neural network (CNN) model for identifying the presence of fracture-hit events. The same model is trained again for locating the event with the output layer of the model replaced with linear units. We achieved near-perfect predictions for both event classification and localization. These promising results prove the feasibility of using CNN for real-time event detection from fiber-optic sensing data. Additionally, we use edge detection techniques to recognize fracture-hit event patterns in strain rate images. The fracture-hit location can be identified using recognized pixels in the image. The accuracy of edge detection-based location identification is also plausible, but edge detection is dependent on the assumption of pattern shape and image quality, hence it is less robust compared to CNN models. This comparison further supports the need for CNN applications in image-based real-time fiber-optic sensing event detection.

Engineering↗

Developing a Disaster-Ready Power Grid Agent Through Geophysically-Informed Fault Event Scenarios

Management of the nation’s power grid over the coming decades will need to factor multiple climate-driven threats to the power system that can be stressful or even detrimental to its operations. During disasters, grid operators suffer from cognitive overload where the electric grid is severely impacted by the weather, yet grid operators have limited awareness of these factors. Meanwhile, the electric grid is facing an explosion of data coming from a variety of sources which can enable the operator to evaluate the risks and develop mitigation strategies against hazardous events. In this work, we processed heterogeneous environmental and power grid data to learn and model grid behavior caused by extreme weather events. In this study, we focused on two weather-driven hazards, hurricanes and wildfires, which were analysed for the electric grid of Texas. We the used this data to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent by analysing and predicting future behaviour of the grid during those hazard events. All these parts are incorporated in one framework to have a geophysically informed power simulators that can be used to train RL agents.

electic grid, reinforcement learning, climate adap↗

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Using telemetry to navigate the MarCO cubesats to Mars

The two MarCO “cubesat” spacecraft were launched alongside NASA’s InSight in May 2018, operating primarily as a technology demonstrator for small satellites in deep space, with a nominal (but experimental) mission to provide relay support for the primary spacecraft during entry, descent, and landing at Mars. Due to their small size and experimental nature, extensive use of telemetry beyond that commonly used by deep space missions was necessary to complete adequate orbit determination. In particular, telemetry was valuable in two areas: use of wheel speeds during thruster calibrations to improve knowledge of individual thruster force levels, and the use of propellant temperature and pressure data to correctly model small thrusting events on board the vehicle.

Martin-Mur, Tomas↗

Lidar and UAS Measurements of Winds for the NASA Advanced Air Mobility Mission

The envisioned future of Advanced Air Mobility involves low-altitude operation of a new class of air vehicles. The low altitudes of the flight paths would have these vehicles spending most of their operation in conditions where unpredictable wind and turbulence effects may occur. Wind measurements will hence be critical to ensure safe and efficient operations for AAM. Such wind measurement could be used as a monitoring system for warning of hazardous wind events, as data input to forecasting models, or as a research tool to understand wind effects in complex environments. To meet this need NASA is evaluating wind sensing technologies with a capability to probe the atmospheric boundary layer. Doppler lidar is a leading candidate ground-based sensor, as shown by the decades-long history of being an effective tool for many wind studies. However, there is a need to re-assess the Doppler wind lidars for the AAM application which involves evaluating wind effects as vehicles operate in and out of vertiports, notably regarding spatial resolution. Meeting the needs for spatial resolution may involve the use of dual-Doppler techniques, rather than just single Doppler lidar. The study was furthermore motivated by looking toward the future of AAM, in which the air vehicles involved can also provide wind measurements. Airborne wind measurements, obtained directly from vehicle-mounted anemometers or indirectly from vehicle navigation data, offer a means to compare remotely sensed wind lidar with in-situ measurements. The following sections report on results of wind measurements obtained using lidar and the small uninhabited aircraft systems (sUAS’s) operating in the same volume of air.

Adam Medina↗

A universal implementation of radiative effects in neutrino event generators

Due to the similarities between electron-nucleus (eA) and neutrino-nucleus scattering (νA), eA data can contribute key information to improve cross-section modeling in eA and hence in νA event generators. However, to compare data and generated events, either the data must be radiatively corrected or radiative effects need to be included in the event generators. We implemented a universal radiative corrections program that can be used with all reaction mechanisms and any eA event generator. Our program includes real photon radiation by the incident and scattered electrons, and virtual photon exchange and photon vacuum polarization diagrams. It uses the “extended peaking” approximation for electron radiation and neglects charged hadron radiation. This method, validated with GENIE, can also be extended to simulate νA radiative effects. This work facilitates data-event-generator comparisons used to improve νA event generators for the next-generation of neutrino experiments. Program Title: emMCRadCorr CPC Library link to program files:https://doi.org/10.17632/hmsxg82vnf.1 Developer's repository link:https://github.com/e4nu/emMCRadCorr Licensing provisions: AGPLv3 Programming language:C++ Nature of problem: Radiative effects can significantly modify the event kinematics and the resulting cross-sections. Such effects must be accounted for when comparing event generators to eA data. Existing radiative correction codes are tailored to specific processes and topologies, and are limited to a restricted phase space defined by the spectrometer acceptance. Therefore, a more general approach is required to apply radiative corrections to semi-inclusive and exclusive eA measurements. Solution method: Our program incorporates real photon radiation from both the incident and scattered electrons, as well as virtual photon exchange and photon vacuum polarization effects. It employs the “extended peaking” approximation for electron radiation while neglecting contributions from charged hadron radiation. The code is fully decoupled from event generator codes and can be used for all event generators in the market.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗