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DOE OSTI2026

Unsupervised anomaly detection in MeV ultrafast electron diffraction

MeV ultrafast electron diffraction (MUED) is a pump-probe technique used to study the dynamic structural evolution of materials. An ultrashort laser pulse triggers structural changes, which are then probed by an ultrashort relativistic electron beam. To overcome low signal-to-noise ratios, diffraction patterns are averaged over thousands of shots. However, shot-to-shot instabilities in the electron beam can distort individual patterns, introducing uncertainty. Improving MUED accuracy requires detecting and removing these anomalous patterns from large datasets. In this work, we developed a fully unsupervised methodology for the detection of anomalous diffraction patterns. Using a convolutional autoencoder, we calculate the reconstruction mean squared error of the diffraction patterns. Based on the statistical analysis of this error, we provide the user an estimation of the probability that the pattern is normal, which also allows a posterior visual inspection of the images that are difficult to classify. This method has been trained with only 100 diffraction patterns and tested on 1521 patterns, resulting in a false positive rate between 0.2% and 0.4%, with a training time of 10 s per image and a test time of about 1 s per image. Here, the proposed methodology can also be applied to other diffraction techniques in which large datasets are collected that include faulty images due to instrumental instabilities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Neutron Mean Life and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

We explore the effect of neutron lifetime and its uncertainty on standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). BBN describes the cosmic production of the light nuclides, 1H, D, 3H+3He, 4He, and 7Li+7Be, in the first minutes of cosmic time. The neutron mean life τn has two roles in modern BBN calculations: (1) it normalizes the matrix element for weak n↔p interconversions, and (2) it sets the rate of free neutron decay after the weak interactions freeze-out. We review the history of the interplay between τn measurements and BBN, and present a study of the sensitivity of the light element abundances to the modern neutron lifetime measurements. We find that τn uncertainties dominate the predicted 4He error budget, but these theory errors remain smaller than the uncertainties in 4He observations, even with the dispersion in recent neutron lifetime measurements. For the other light element predictions, τn contributes negligibly to their error budget. Turning the problem around, we combine present BBN and cosmic microwave background (CMB) determinations of the cosmic baryon density to predict a “cosmologically preferred” mean life of τn(BBN+CMB)=870±16s, which is consistent with experimental mean life determinations. We show that if future astronomical and cosmological helium observations can reach an uncertainty of σobs(Yp)=0.001 in the 4He mass fraction Yp, this could begin to discriminate between the mean life determinations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical Assessment of Electronic Structure Descriptors for Predicting Perovskite Catalytic Properties

The discovery and design of materials which can efficiently catalyze the oxygen reduction and evolution reactions at reduced temperatures is important for facilitating the widespread adoption of fuel cell and electrolyzer technologies. Numerous studies have produced correlations between catalytic properties, such as oxygen surface exchange or electrode area specific resistance (ASR), and properties of the catalyst material. However, correlations have historically been limited in scope (e.g., using only a few materials or at a single temperature) and it has been difficult to provide detailed assessments of their robustness. Here, in this study, we assess the ability of the O p-band center electronic structure descriptor, obtained from density functional theory (DFT) calculations, to correlate with oxygen surface exchange rates, diffusivities, and area specific resistances for a large database of perovskite oxide catalytic properties. By data mining the literature, we obtain 747 catalytic property value data points spanning 299 unique perovskite compositions from 313 studies. We assess linear correlations of each property with the O p-band center and find generally modest correlations that are qualitatively useful (prediction mean absolute errors of about 0.5 log units are typical), where the correlations are improved at higher temperatures (e.g., 800 °C vs. 500 °C) and significantly improve when considering fits to the subset of materials which have multiple independent measurements. These findings suggest that the spread of property data is significantly influenced by experimental uncertainty, and subsequent measurements of additional materials will likely improve the O p-band center correlations.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Combining artificial intelligence and physics-based modeling to directly assess atomic site stabilities: from sub-nanometer clusters to extended surfaces

The performance of functional materials is dictated by chemical and structural properties of individual atomic sites. In catalysts, for instance, the thermodynamic stability of constituting atomic sites is a key descriptor from which more complex properties, such as molecular adsorption energies and reaction rates, can be derived. In this study, we present a widely applicable machine learning (ML) approach to instantaneously compute the stability of individual atomic sites in structurally and electronically complex nano-materials. Conventionally, we determine such site stabilities using computationally intensive first-principles calculations. With our approach, we predict the stability of atomic sites in sub-nanometer metal clusters of 3–55 atoms with mean absolute errors in the range of 0.11–0.14 eV. To extract physical insights from the ML model, we introduce a genetic algorithm (GA) for feature selection. This algorithm distills the key structural and chemical properties governing the stability of atomic sites in size-selected nanoparticles, allowing for physical interpretability of the models and revealing structure–property relationships. The results of the GA are generally model and materials specific. In the limit of large nanoparticles, the GA identifies features consistent with physics-based models for metal–metal interactions. By combining the ML model with the physics-based model, we predict atomic site stabilities in real time for structures ranging from sub-nanometer metal clusters (3–55 atom) to larger nanoparticles (147 to 309 atoms) to extended surfaces using a physically interpretable framework. Finally, we present a proof of principle showcasing how our approach can determine stable and active nanocatalysts across a generic materials space of structure and composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Device Parameters for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells from Electronic Structure Calculations to Reproduce Experiment.

Given that improvements to the power-conversion efficiency (PCE) of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have slowed in recent years, a means to accurately predict the device parameters yielded by trial dyes in silico, without having to synthesize them, would be extremely valuable to speed up the design process. Currently, the best-performing methods of calculating device parameters rely on a set of experimentally determined kinetic coefficients. In practice, it is very difficult to measure these kinetic parameters accurately, limiting the overall accuracy of such predictive methods. This work proposes a model to obtain key parameters such as J(SC), V-OC, and PCE using only the results from density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT calculations, noting that rates of electron-transfer steps are ultimately linked to the electronic structure of the dye center dot center dot center dot TiO2 working electrode. Six organic DSSC dyes from dissimilar chemical classes (L0, L1, L2, WS-2, WS-92, and C281) were chosen to demonstrate the power of this approach. Their a priori known experimentally determined device performance metrics served to validate our predictions. The greatest absolute error in our predicted PCE values was 0.36% relative to the experiment, while the greatest fractional error was 0.042. This indicates that the proposed model offers a dramatic improvement on previous predictive methods for DSSC device parameters, both in accuracy and in consistency. Moreover, such a predictive model has great potential to be applied to other photovoltaic applications, further enabling the design of novel, highly efficient photoactive materials.

density functional theory↗

DOE OSTI2020

Collagen Turnover in Relation to Risk Factors and Hemodynamics in Human Intracranial Aneurysms

Determinants for molecular and structural instability, that is, impending growth or rupture, of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remain uncertain. To elucidate this, we endeavored to estimate the actual turnover rates of the main molecular constituent in human IA (collagen) on the basis of radiocarbon ( 14 C) birth dating in relation to IA hemodynamics. Collagen turnover rates in excised human IA samples were calculated using mathematical modeling of 14 C birth dating data of collagen in relation to risk factors and histological markers for collagen maturity/turnover in selected IA. Hemodynamics were simulated using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Collagen turnover rates were estimated in 46 IA (43 patients); computational fluid dynamics could be performed in 20 IA (20 patients). The mean collagen turnover rate (γ) constituted 126% (±1% error) per year. For patients with arterial hypertension, γ was greater than 2600% annually, whereas γ was distinctly lower with 32% (±1% error) per year for patients without risk factors, such as smoking and hypertension. There was a distinct association between histological presence of rather immature collagen in human IA and the presence of modifiable risk factors. Spatial-temporal averaged wall shear stress predicted rapid collagen turnover (odds ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0–2.7]). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated a good test accuracy (area under the curve, 0.798 [95% CI, 0.598–0.998]) for average wall shear stress with a threshold ≥4.9 Pa for rapid collagen turnover. Our data indicate that turnover rates and stability of collagen in human IA are strongly associated with the presence of modifiable risk factors and aneurysmal hemodynamics. Finally, these findings underline the importance of strict risk factor modification in patients with unruptured IA. Future should include more detailed risk factor data to establish a more causal understanding of hemodynamics and the rupture risk of individual IA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving the characterization of fusion in a MuSIC detector by spatial localization

Multi-Sampling Ionization Chambers (MuSIC) provide an efficient means of measuring nuclear reactions with low beam rates (< 10 6 pps). However, in comparison to thin-target measurements, prior measurements using MuSIC detectors all manifest fusion excitation functions with wide error bars in the energy dimension. This uncertainty limits the applicability of these devices in measuring near and sub-barrier fusion cross-sections. Key to overcoming this limitation is spatial localization of the fusion in the detector. By comparing the measured ionization in the MuSIC detector with accurate energy loss calculations the position of the fusion in the detector is determined. The analysis not only provides the desired improvement in energy resolution, but it also allows extraction of the atomic number of the evaporation residues following fusion. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated for 18 O+ 12 C measured with MuSIC@Indiana.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of The NSUF Reactor Activation and Damage (RAD) Calculator: Assessing the Accuracy of the Activation Calculator

Nuclear Science User Facilities developed an activation calculator as part of the Combined Material Experiment Toolbox project. The activation calculator estimates the radionuclide concentration in an irradiated sample to indicate when and where the samples may best be examined to only help with scoping the experiment. To verify the accuracy of the calculator, the results from the specific gamma dose rate [mrem/hr/g] at various cooldown times were compared to equivalent results generated in ORIGEN. Most elements were tested as a sample composed solely of that element. These samples were exposed to thirteen different lengths of irradiation in all reactor positions included in the calculator. For elements of interest (i.e., ones currently included in the Nuclear Fuels and Materials Library), 83% of the test cases fell within the allowed tolerance for this scoping tool of ±50%. The overall error is logarithmic with irradiation length and is almost completely independent of reactor position. The primary source of error is missing nuclear data and reactions. NSUF believes that the RAD Calculator can be deployed to the user community because it is designed to provide estimates to aid researchers in planning experiments, and users are cautioned about the limitations of the calculator.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automatically generated model for light alkene combustion

Light alkenes are common combustion intermediates for a variety of fuels. Therefore, understanding their oxidation and pyrolysis chemistry is key to building detailed mechanisms for heavier fuels. This work was focused on the development and evaluation of a detailed kinetic mechanism suitable for the combustion of light alkenes up to C 4 without the use of tuned parameters, instead, the parameter values come from first principles or direct measurements. The generated mechanism accurately estimates the laminar burning velocity (S u ) and ignition delay time (IDT) of light alkenes available in the literature, which represent fundamental combustion properties at a wide range of conditions. Because each parameter is thought to have a physically realistic value, not tuned to these measurements, the new model could be used as a sub-mechanism in models for other applications. The reaction network was generated with the open-source Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) software. Sensitivity analyses were performed under wide ranges of temperatures and pressures, allowing for the identification of the most impactful species and reactions. Based on these, a comprehensive thermochemistry database, including calculations on 550 molecules performed in this work at the CBS-QB3 level of theory, and a kinetic library, including theoretically-derived reaction rates retrieved from the literature, were built and used in the mechanism generation. The developed mechanism was compared against several existing detailed kinetic mechanisms for ethene, propene, 1-butene, 2-butene, and isobutene. Here, the newly generated model is the most accurate among the ones analyzed, in terms of fractional bias and normalized mean square error. Hence, this new model was used to analyze the chemistry of alkene combustion. Key rate coefficients were compared, to identify the cause of deviations between the models and possible areas for further improvements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observations Show Charge Density of Volcanic Plumes is Higher Than Thunderstorms

We analyze slow electric field change and lightning mapping measurements to provide insight into the characteristics of volcanic lightning and the associated implications on charging processes and the charge structure of a Vulcanian eruption plume. Data were obtained during a multi-instrumental field campaign at Sakurajima volcano in 2015 when the Showa crater was active. We combine the electric field change and lightning mapping data from one explosive eruption on June 6, 2015 to identify individual flashes. From this, we interpret the flash type and polarity. In addition, the long-time constant of the electric field change instrument allowed measurement of the quasi-static field associated with charge separation in the eruption plume. We find that both intracloud and cloud-to-ground discharges occurred, and the polarity of cloud-to-ground discharges were all negative. The quasi-static field measurement showed the plume carried a net negative charge. We calculate both the total charge transferred by cloud-to-ground discharges and the net charge density of the eruption plume. We find that cloud-to-ground discharges transfer an average of –0.41C per flash and the net charge density was –33C/ km 3 . Here, the percent error is at least 200%, due to uncertainty in the antenna gain. We show that these estimates are consistent with lightning that is 100 m in length. Further, the average flash rate during the first 8 s following the onset of eruption was five flashes per second. After that time, the flash rate abruptly decreased, which may be related to the end of gas-thrust forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the inter-species power balance in JET plasmas

Most auxiliary heating methods provide heating to more than one particle species (electrons, ions, impurities) in a fusion plasma. This can lead to substantial temperature differences between species, depending on conditions such as heating power to the different species and collisionality, with temperature differences between species limited by inter-species thermal equipartition and transport. The analysis of the steady-state electron-ion and impurity-ion power balances presented in this paper are used for consistency-checking experimental ion and electron temperature measurements and for inferring the main ion temperature from measured impurity temperatures. As ion temperature measurements by charge exchange spectroscopy (CXS) based on impurity ions have become more difficult and time-consuming since the installation of the ITER-like wall (ILW) with Be and W PFC's, knowing the maximum sustainable temperature difference between ions and electrons, |T i -T e | allows rejecting erroneous measurements. It also obviates the need for an ion temperature measurement, if an electron temperature measurement is available and |T i - T e | cannot be larger than the combined errors of the underlying measurements. A power balance analysis is also required for estimating the errors of the ion and electron heat fluxes prior to any species-resolved transport analysis. The ion-impurity temperature differences are usually found to be small due to strong thermal equipartition between ion species. However, they can approach 10% in JET-ILW low density, high power discharges, such the ones under development for a future JET deuterium–tritium campaign (Joffrin et al 2019 Nucl. Fusion). This has a generally small, but not always negligible effect on the calculation of fusion reaction rates, which depend on main ion temperatures. An important outcome of this analysis is that temperature differences between impurity species are always much smaller than between the impurities and hydrogenic species and can usually be neglected. The article presents two methods for calculating the impurity-to-main ion temperature ratio. Finally, this analysis leads to a method for the reconstruction ion temperature profiles from ion temperature data available at only one or a small number of spatial locations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation

Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of the Latest 22 Ne+ α Reaction Rates on Nucleosynthesis in Massive Stars and Galactic Chemical Evolution

In massive stars (initial mass of ≳9 M ⊙ ), the weak s- (slow neutron capture) process produces elements between Fe and Zr, enriching the Galaxy with these elements through core-collapse supernova explosions. The weak s-process nucleosynthesis is driven by neutrons produced in the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction during convective He core and C shell burning. The yields of heavy elements thus depend on the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and the competitive 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rates, which are dominated by several narrow-resonance reactions. While the accuracy of these rates has been under debate for decades, recent experimental efforts, including ours, drastically reduced these uncertainties. In this work, we use a set of 280 massive star nucleosynthesis models calculated using different 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg rates and a galactic chemical evolution (GCE) study to probe their impact on the weak s-process elemental abundances in the Galaxy. The GCE was computed with the OMEGA+ code, using the new sets of stellar yields with different 22 Ne+α rates. From GCE, we find that these rates are causing up to 0.45 dex of variations in the [Cu/Fe], [Ga/Fe], and [Ge/Fe] ratios predicted at solar metallicity. The greatest impact on the stellar nucleosynthesis and GCE results derives from uncertainties in the (α, n) strength (ωγ (α,n) ) of the E x = 11.32 MeV resonance. We show that variations observed in the GCE calculations for weak s-process elements become negligibly smaller than dispersions found in observations once the ωγ (α,n) is accurately determined within the uncertainty of 10%–20% (typically reported experimental errors for the resonance) in future nuclear physics experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters [Slides]

Sensitivity coefficients of prompt neutron decay constant (α) and effective delayed neutron fraction (β eff ) to Pu-239 nuclear data were calculated using a newly available tool (ACEtk). Uncertainty calculations showed the following trends: (1) The prompt neutron decay constant can be used to reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239(n,f) and (2) the effective delayed neutron fraction can be used to effectively reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239 total fission $\tilde{v}$. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis can be used to determine optimal experiment/detector setup to identify compensating errors in nuclear data. Upcoming work includes investigating other nuclide-reaction pairs and response sensitivities, such as Δ$\rho$, neutron leakage spectra, and reaction rate measurements to constrain nuclear data of interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Travel Energy Consumption Uncertainty Based on Inferred Travel Mode and Sensed Travel Length

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 8%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗