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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of tomographic redshift bin width errors on cosmological probes

ABSTRACT Systematic errors in the galaxy redshift distribution n(z) can propagate to systematic errors in the derived cosmology. We characterize how the degenerate effects in tomographic bin widths and galaxy bias impart systematic errors on cosmology inference using observational data from the Deep Lens Survey. For this we use a combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing. We present two end-to-end analyses from the catalogue level to parameter estimation. We produce an initial cosmological inference using fiducial tomographic redshift bins derived from photometric redshifts, then compare this with a result where the redshift bins are empirically corrected using a set of spectroscopic redshifts. We find that the derived parameter S8 ≡ σ8(Ωm/.3)1/2 decreases from $0.841^{+0.062}_{-0.061}$ to $0.781^{0.061}_{0.054}$ upon correcting the n(z) errors in the second method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Size-dependent errors in real-time electron density propagation

Real-time (RT) electron density propagation with time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) or Hartree–Fock (TDHF) is one of the most popular methods to model the charge transfer in molecules and materials. However, both RT-TDHF and RT-TDDFT within the adiabatic approximation are known to produce inaccurate evolution of the electron density away from the ground state in model systems, leading to large errors in charge transfer and erroneous shifting of peaks in absorption spectra. Given the poor performance of these methods with small model systems and the widespread use of the methods with larger molecular and material systems, here we bridge the gap in our understanding of these methods and examine the size-dependence of errors in RT density propagation. We analyze the performance of RT density propagation for systems of increasing size during the application of a continuous resonant field to induce Rabi-like oscillations, during charge-transfer dynamics, and for peak shifting in simulated absorption spectra. We find that the errors in the electron dynamics are indeed size dependent for these phenomena, with the largest system producing the results most aligned with those expected from linear response theory. The results suggest that although the RT-TDHF and RT-TDDFT methods may produce severe errors for model systems, the errors in charge transfer and resonantly driven electron dynamics may be much less significant for more realistic, large-scale molecules and materials.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - II: Numerical results

This paper is the second part of a two-part paper that documents the numerical results for the partial derivatives model presented in part I. In this paper, we derive the error bounds for the analytical point-wise error expression and verify our bounds with numerical experiments. The point-wise error expressions make available, and bound, the sources that contribute to the total error of the interpolated cross section in terms of the Lagrange interpolation errors and the model form error. MPACT is used to generate two-group homogenized cross sections for Westinghouse's AP1000 Region 4 lattice to evaluate the accuracy of the bounds. Error bounds calculated over a grid are compared to numerical data for uni-variate and multi-variate interpolation. The point-wise error bounds of a typical case matrix - two branches in each state variable - are displayed for bi-variate interpolation in the state variables: moderator density, fuel temperature, and boron concentration. The error bounds are shown to be highly accurate compared to numerical results, and in accordance with the underlying physics. We then discuss and show how the sources of error contribute to the total error, and consider the improvement of each error source. Finally, we mention future work such as propagating our cross section error bounds through a reactivity calculation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty-based weighted least squares density integration for background-oriented schlieren

We propose an improved density integration methodology for Background-Oriented Schlieren (BOS) measurements that overcomes the noise sensitivity of the commonly used Poisson solver. Here, the method employs a weighted least-squares (WLS) optimization of the 2D integration of the density gradient field by solving an over-determined system of equations. Weights are assigned to the grid points based on density gradient uncertainties to ensure that a less reliable measurement point has less effect on the integration procedure. Synthetic image analysis with a Gaussian density field shows that WLS constrains the propagation of random error and reduces it by 80% in comparison to Poisson for the highest noise level. Using WLS with experimental BOS measurements of flow induced by a spark plasma discharge shows a 30% reduction in density uncertainty in comparison to Poisson, thereby increasing the overall precision of the BOS density measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of back‐projection algorithm (BPA) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image formation to initial position, velocity, and attitude navigation errors

Abstract The Back‐Projection Algorithm (BPA) is a time‐domain‐matched filtering technique to form synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. To produce high‐quality BPA images, precise navigation data for the radar platform must be known. Errors in position, velocity, or attitude result in improperly formed images that are corrupted by shifting and blurring. The contribution of this paper is the development of analytical expressions that characterise the relationship between navigation errors and image formation errors from an inertial navigation point of view, where trajectory estimation errors in position, velocity, and attitude propagate through time and cause compounding errors in the vehicle state vector. These analytical expressions are verified via simulated image formation and real‐data image formation.

Lindstrom, Colton↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collinear Three-Photon Excitation of a Strongly Forbidden Optical Clock Transition

The 1 𝑆 0 − 3 𝑃 0 clock transition in strontium serves as the foundation for the world’s best atomic clocks and for gravitational wave detector concepts in clock atom interferometry. This transition is weakly allowed in the fermionic isotope 87 Sr but strongly forbidden in bosonic isotopes. Here, we demonstrate coherent excitation of the clock transition in bosonic 88 Sr using a novel collinear three-photon process in a weak magnetic field. We observe Rabi oscillations with frequencies of up to 50 kHz using W/cm 2 laser intensities and Gauss-level magnetic field amplitudes. The absence of nuclear spin in bosonic isotopes offers decreased sensitivity to magnetic fields and optical lattice light shifts, enabling atomic clocks with reduced systematic errors. The collinear propagation of the laser fields permits the interrogation of spatially separated atomic ensembles with common laser pulses, a key requirement for dark matter searches and gravitational wave detection with next-generation quantum sensors.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neuroevolution of Spiking Neural Networks Using Compositional Pattern Producing Networks

Spiking neural networks (SNNs) offer tremendous potential for the future of AI, including the ability to be implemented efficiently on neuromorphic systems. One of the challenges in building functioning SNNs is the training process, as standard error back-propagation cannot be easily applied. In this work, we extend an evolutionary approach for training SNNs by implementing an indirect encoding of individuals. Specifically, we evolve SNNs using Compositional Pattern Producing Networks, which are able to learn the connectivity patterns between neurons defined in a coordinate space. We validate the approach on multiple control and classification tasks.

Elbrecht, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning for Multigroup Cross-Section Representation in Two-Step Core Calculations

Here we investigate using deep learning, a type of machine-learning algorithm employing multiple layers of artificial neurons, for the mathematical representation of multigroup cross sections for use in the Griffin reactor multiphysics code for two-step deterministic neutronics calculations. A three-dimensional fuel element typical of a high-temperature gas reactor as well as a two-dimensional sodium-cooled fast reactor lattice are modeled using the Serpent Monte Carlo code, and multigroup macroscopic cross sections are generated for various state parameters to produce a training data set and a separate validation data set. A fully connected, feedforward neural network is trained using the open-source PyTorch machine-learning framework, and its accuracy is compared against the standard piecewise linear interpolation model. Additionally, we provide in this work a generic technique for propagating the cross-section model errors up to the k eff using sensitivity coefficients with the first-order uncertainty propagation rule. Quantifying the eigenvalue error due to the cross-section regression errors is especially practical for appropriately selecting the mathematical representation of the cross sections. We demonstrate that the artificial neural network model produces lower errors and therefore enables better accuracy relative to the piecewise linear model when the cross sections exhibit nonlinear dependencies; especially when a coarse grid is employed, where the errors can be halved by the artificial neural network. However, for linearly dependent multigroup cross sections as found for the sodium-cooled fast reactor case, a simpler linear regression outperforms deeper networks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

ATTNChecker: Highly-Optimized Fault Tolerant Attention for Large Language Model Training

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in various natural language processing tasks. However, the training of these models is computationally intensive and susceptible to faults, particularly in the attention mechanism, which is a critical component of transformer-based LLMs. In this paper, we investigate the impact of faults on LLM training, focusing on INF, NaN, and near-INF values in the computation results with systematic fault injection experiments. We observe the propagation patterns of these errors, which can trigger non-trainable states in the model and disrupt training, forcing the procedure to load from checkpoints. To mitigate the impact of these faults, we propose ATTNChecker, the first Algorithm-Based Fault Tolerance (ABFT) technique tailored for the attention mechanism in LLMs. ATTNChecker is designed based on fault propagation patterns of LLM and incorporates performance optimization to adapt to both system reliability and model vulnerability while providing lightweight protection for fast LLM training. Evaluations on four LLMs show that ATTNChecker on average incurs on average 7% overhead on training while detecting and correcting all extreme errors. Compared with the state-of-the-art checkpoint/restore approach, ATTNChecker reduces recovery overhead by up to 49×.

Liang, Yuhang [University of Alabama - Birmingham]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Travel Energy Consumption Uncertainty Based on Inferred Travel Mode and Sensed Travel Length

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 8%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation applied to the versatile test reactor conceptual design

We report the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) currently under development is a 300 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fueled with ternary metal alloy fuel, which aims to accelerate the testing of advanced nuclear fuels, materials, instrumentation, and sensors in high flux environments that are necessary to license the next generation of advanced reactor concepts. To support the VTR design process, uncertainties associated with the nuclear data has been propagated through the reactor core neutronics calculation to global parameters of interest, such as the core multiplication factor, kinetic parameters, and various reactivity feedback coefficients, following the sensitivity based uncertainty propagation approach. By folding the sensitivity coefficients, separately computed by the generalized perturbation theory code PERSENT and Monte Carlo code Serpent 2, with the variance-covariance matrices from COMMARA-2.0, we obtain the reaction-wise, isotope-wise, and overall uncertainties for each response of interest due to nuclear data uncertainty. With Serpent 2, the statistical error of the uncertainty is obtained by propagating the statistical error of the sensitivity coefficients through the same process using a newly developed uncertainty propagation method. From both codes, the overall top uncertainty contributors are found to be the cross section of Fe-56 elastic scattering, Na-23 elastic scattering, and U 238 inelastic scattering. The large contributions of the Fe-56 elastic scattering cross sections to global parameters are due to its relatively large relative uncertainty of 5–10% in nuclear data and the large volume of Fe-containing reflector assemblies in the fairly compact VTR core design. Both codes agreed well for the overall uncertainty estimates of all responses of interest, except the delayed neutron fraction, prompt neutron generation time, and the coolant density feedback coefficient, where Serpent 2 yielded a much larger value than PERSENT due to the large statistical error of sensitivity coefficients. The calculated uncertainties are also compared to those associated with other SFR cores. Another outcome of this study is a variance-covariance matrix of reactivity coefficients, which can be used in the subsequent uncertainty propagation to the system level to investigate the impact of identified uncertainties on system responses in the safety analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Finite-Volume Numerics and Source Term Assumptions for Kernel and G-Equation Modelling of Propane/Air Flames

Here G-Equation models represent propagating flame fronts with an implicit two-dimensional surface representation (level-set). Level-set methods are fast, as transport source terms for the implicit surface can be solved with finite-volume operators on the finite-volume domain, without having to build the actual surface. However, they include approximations whose practical effects are not properly understood. In this study, we improved the numerics of the FRESCO CFD code’s G-Equation solver and developed a new method to simulate kernel growth using signed distance functions and the analytical sphere-mesh overlap. We analyzed their role for simulating propane/air flames, using three well-established constant-volume configurations: a one-dimensional, freely propagating laminar flame; a disc-shaped, constant-volume swirl combustor; and torch-jet flame development through an orifice from a two-chamber device. We tested the explicit (sub-cycled) vs. implicit formulation for the standard transport operators (advection, diffusion, compressibility). In addition to the accurate flame swept-volume method for chemistry and species source term, we developed a more accurate estimator for the burnt/unburnt split cell composition. Then, we developed a signed-distance-function (SDF) based method which provides a more stable reinitialization of the level-set field at every time-step. We found that simplifying assumptions common to several G-Equation implementations, for straightforward terms such as compressibility and advection, lead to large errors in predicting the propagation of even laminar flames, with deviations up to ~300% in simulated vs. formulated flame speed. Conversely, the enhanced numerics enabled through the SDF field reinitialization and improved chemistry source term improve simulation stability and smooth flame propagation even with significantly larger solver time-steps.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient data reduction for time-of-flight neutron scattering experiments on single crystals

Event-mode data collection presents remarkable new opportunities for time-of-flight neutron scattering studies of collective excitations, diffuse scattering from short-range atomic and magnetic structures, and neutron crystallography. In these experiments, large volumes of the reciprocal space are surveyed, often using different wavelengths and counting times. These data then have to be added together, with accurate propagation of the counting errors. This paper presents a statistically correct way of adding and histogramming the data for single-crystal time-of-flight neutron scattering measurements. In order to gain a broader community acceptance, particular attention is given to improving the efficiency of calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiphenomenology explosion monitoring (MultiPEM): a general framework for data interpretation and yield estimation

SUMMARY An underground nuclear explosion (UNE) couples mechanical energy into crustal rock, which propagates as seismic and acoustic waves. These different physical phenomena transport, by different pathways, to standoff detectors at varying distances. The transport pathways attenuate the original signal but in different ways. Enabled by correct statistical weighting, signal attenuation models can be used to combine these disparate sensor data to estimate the yield of an UNE. Contemporaneous statistical models, used in yield estimation, can be improved with an advanced partition of error for these physical signal propagation models. We present an advanced multivariate approach to error modelling of multiphenomenology physical signatures. In addition to measurement error, our error model represents physical model biases as random with a physics-based covariance structure. To illustrate this proposed framework, we demonstrate the estimation of explosion yield using openly available seismic and acoustic data from chemical single-point explosions.

Williams, Brian J.↗